Going into the All-Star break, the Washington Capitals were 22nd in the league in points, 19th in winning percentage and had lost four straight. Things weren’t looking great.
Since returning from the break, however, they have looked like a different team, going 9-5-1 since the All-Star weekend and 7-2-1 in their last 10 game. They took themselves from “no way in hell are they making the playoffs” to insert meme of girl who drank kombucha for the first time. They are giving people hope that the boys in red could actually return to the playoffs.
Adding to this sudden burst (or sliver, at least) of hope is the fact that almost all of the teams around them seem to be completely taking themselves out of the race. The Pittsburgh Penguins and the New Jersey Devils look like they have given up, the Philadelphia Flyers seem like they don’t want to make the playoffs, and the Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings can’t stay consistent. The Islanders seem to be the only threat, currently on a six-game winning streak.
So right now, the Caps are only five points out of a playoff spot with up to three games in hand on every one in front of them. There seems to be a legit shot for the Caps to sneak into the last wild card spot…but according to MoneyPuck, the Caps’ playoff chances are at a measly 17.8%. How can that be when they are just five points back with games in hand and everyone around them seems to be flailing?
It mainly comes down to the team’s strength of schedule to finish out the season.
According to Tankathon.com, the Capitals have THE toughest schedule remaining in the league. They play 10 games against top 10 teams (EDM, VAN, WPGx2, TORx2, CARx2, BOSx2), six against middling teams (SEA, CGY, TBL, PHI, DETx2), and just three against bottom 10 teams (BUF, PIT, OTT). That’s rough no matter how the Caps are playing.
But let’s also take a look at the team’s “hot” run of late. Breaking down the Caps, recent schedule where they have found some success, so their last 15 games:
- Five games against top-10 teams and went 1-4 (VAN, BOS, COL, FLAx2)
- Three games against teams in the middle of the standings teams and went 2-1 (TBL, PHI, DET)
- Seven games against bottom-10 teams and went 5-2 (ARI, PIT, OTT, CHI, NJD, MTLx2)
So a lot of their success has been more feasting on medium to bottom of the league teams for a combined 7-3. Ted Starkey did some math on what is needed to sneak in:
So basically, to be safe, the Caps can only lose eight of their last 20 games max to end the season, and preferably no more than seven. If they stick with their 1-4 trajectory against top 10 teams, they are losing at least eight more games alone to end the season – and even in that case they need to beat all middling and bottom 10 teams for those other 10 games to lose just those eight games. If they manage to pull that off, it still might not be enough, as the teams in front of them will have something to say about it, as well.
It gets tougher when you consider that the Caps traded away one of their best forwards, Anthony Mantha, while just about all of those top teams added players to (at least on paper) be even better. Those 10 games against top-10 teams now look like even tougher obstacles in their path.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though – there could be some hope for the Caps. For one thing, in those five games against top-10 teams, they kept things close enough that, if a few bounces went there way or they avoided a mistake here or there, they could have gotten a win. The one win was a dominant shutout over the Bruins, but two of their losses were in overtime (FLA and VAN) and the other two were basically one-goal games until both Florida and Colorado grabbed some empty-net goals to expand their leads.
Another positive sign is that in their last 15 games the Caps analytics have been pretty good, or at least better than their seasons stats up to the all star break. According to NaturalStatTrick, they boast a 49.36 CF%, 50.59 xGF%, 50.68 SCF%, and a 52.77 HDCF% in their last 15 games. Those aren’t mind-melting stats, but they are floating around average, which is a big improvement for them and definitely numbers you can win games with (although it’s again worth noting that they haven’t been facing the toughest competition over that stretch).
The first big test for the Caps will be their annual trip through Western Canada that starts tonight in Winnipeg. They will play five games total: three against top-10 teams in WPG, EDM, and VAN, and play two middling teams in CGY and SEA. If the Caps can come out of the trip with at least three wins, they could possibly keep their playoff dreams alive – and build their confidence, as well.
Ultimately, it’s a tough road ahead, and betting on the Caps to not make the playoffs would probably win you some money…but with the way head coach Spencer Carbery has the team playing, having fun, and pumping out some wins regardless of opponent, it may be better to not count them out.