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Numbers for Now: Fine Lines

Dec 10, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Washington Capitals center Dylan Strome (17) celebrates his goal with teammates against the Chicago Blackhawks during the second period at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

3 – Number of sets of back-to-back games (i.e. games with zero days in between) that the Caps have swept in the last month after last night’s win over Chicago:

The Caps now have the most such sweeps in the League, as well as the most wins in the second of back-to-backs:

If you’re searching for a “why?” here (and won’t accept “random variance”), you’re probably gonna land on “two quality goalies.” But it’s worth noting that the Caps have scored four goals or more in each of those second games, which is surprising for a team that’s a bit long in the tooth and scoring-challenged to begin with, but, again, random variance.

3 – Speaking of “two quality goalies,” as Charlie Lindgren continues to keep the Caps afloat as Darcy Kuemper continues to search for consistency, a few former Caps understudies are faring… less well:

Oof.

4 – Number of current Caps forward lines that have played more than 50 minutes together at five-on-five and are at or above 50% in Goals-For Percentage (GF%), Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%) or both.

Has Spencer Carbery found his lines? It sure seems like it (for now, at least). The current forward combos represent four of the five Caps lines to have skated 50 minutes together this year (the other being the Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Wilson line that we hopefully won’t be seeing again), and has had tremendous success, with the top three lines all posting both xGF% and actual GF% at break-even or better, and the fourth line massively outperforming expectations in the toughest deployments goin’ (outscoring opponents 7-2):

data via MoneyPuck; bubble size corresponds to total ice time, ranging from 67.2 minutes to 142.5

These four lines have outscored opponents 24-17 at five-on-five, with an expected edge of 17.4-15.4. So, yeah, outperforming expectations (exceedingly strange for this year’s Caps), but those expectations are still on the right side of 50 percent at 53%, a legitimately good number that would be 8th-best on the circuit over the course of the year so far.

Who could’ve seen this coming (ten days ago)?

Talking Points