In theory, it makes sense: play the greatest goal-scorer of all-time with your best playmaker on the top line. Their resumes (and paychecks) practically fill out the lineup card that way themselves. Hell, they’re even fellow countrymen.
But to the extent that it ever did work – and boy did it, for two months at least – Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov, together, no longer does. At all.
That’s the Caps’ five-on-five offense on the left with Kuznetsov and Ovechkin on the ice together this season, a cool 18% lower than League average (as another point of reference, without Kuznetsov on the ice, the Caps are at 2.57 xGF/60, or 3% below average). On the right (the one that looks like a murder scene), is the team’s defense with the pair out there, with an expected goals-against rate nearly 50% higher than League average (the Caps are at 2.69, +2% without Kuzy). In other words, with Kuznetsov and Ovechkin on the ice together at five-on-five so far this year, the Caps aren’t creating chances and are hemorrhaging them, to the tune of an expected goals differential of -1.71 per 60, and that’s despite favorable deployments (starting shifts in the offensive zone at a four-to-one rate versus defensive zone starts).
Last night they were outscored 2-0 in just over six minutes together. Kuznetsov hasn’t registered an even-strength assist in three weeks (and has just two on the season). Ovechkin’s only five-on-five goal of the season so far came on that same goal; last season he had 20.
And that brings us to an interesting discussion point – that goal. You’ve seen it before, if not this specific tally, any of the probably two-dozen (?) or so carbon copies Ovechkin has scored over his career:
It’s a thing of beauty, really. But it’s become exceedingly rare (Ovechkin did have one called back on a misdraw recently), and there are reasons for that. First off, the Caps don’t get many offensive-zone faceoffs. There are a number of contributing factors, including low possession numbers, generally, and low rates of pucks being frozen after shots for (yes, that’s a thing that’s tracked), but the Caps are 22nd in the League in offensive-zone faceoffs per game at 19.5 (a dozen teams are at 20.8 or better, with Carolina leading the way at 24.0). Not terrible… but wait, there’s less. The Caps are 30th in offensive-zone faceoffs won per game at 8.4 (Edmonton is first at 12.5, Buffalo is last at 8.2).
That’s a lot of meat left on the bone, whether it’s an instant Ovechkin shot off a set play or a longer OZ possession. Instead, the Caps are losing these opportunities and the puck is headed the other way.
Why?
Well, if you guessed “Evgeny Kuznetsov,” you’re not wrong.
Kuznetsov has never been a particularly effective faceoff man, and has won just 41.9% of his draws so far this year. But in the offensive zone – where Kuznetsov leads all Caps pivots in shift starts/60 – that number drops even further, to just 37.5% (42-for-112). By contrast, Dylan Strome has won 55.2% of his offensive-zone draws. It’s not as easy as saying, “Just give Strome those faceoffs,” but a 55.2% win rate applied to the draws Kuznetsov has taken would be another 19 wins, which is not nothing for an offense that’s struggling and wants to deploy their biggest weapon in the most advantageous spots:
So what are the takeaways here? First and foremost, the Caps need to split up Ovechkin and Kuznetsov at five-on-five – they’re a disaster. Assuming, then, that Ovechkin ends up with Strome, that’s the line that should be force-fed offensive-zone starts. That would likely mean Nic Dowd continuing to get a massive workload in the defensive zone (hopefully in a trio that can be more effective than it has been), and Kuznetsov and Connor McMichael/Aleksai Protas (neither of whom has yet figured out faceoffs at the NHL level) starting at neutral and on-the-fly.
Looking at recent ice time and usage, it may be that Spencer Carbery is putting his bad eggs in one basket and trying to shelter them to mitigate their weaknesses and maximize their strengths. But that’s not a long-term solution. Not for a team that wants to win games and wants a player to break a record.