It’s time once again for the Rink crew to tackle the tough questions (or really just the questions we feel like answering) – today, we’re taking a look at pleasant and unpleasant surprises for the season so far.
What positive thing has surprised you most about the Caps’ start to the season?
J.P.: The wins! This team is near the bottom of the League in expected goals (both for and against, and has underperformed the former) at five-on-five and has had an almost nonexistent power play all year to pair with a middling penalty kill. And yet, they’ve won games… a lot of games! And I certainly didn’t expect that going into the season or, frankly, having watched them now for a month-and-a-half. They look to me like a 6-10-2 team with a 10-6-2 record.
Luke: I always like Connor McMichael’s game, but he’s really surprised me this season. Every game it seems like he’s creating multiple chances with his skating, hands, and passing ability, which is funny because it’s always been his shot that was his offensive staple. Right now, his release is just a bit too slow. He’s had multiple high danger shots blocked last second because he takes too long to let it rip. If he can speed up his shot he’ll be a nice top-six dual threat going forward.
Becca: I’m going with the goaltending – particularly the performance of Charlie Lindgren (last Friday’s outing against the Oilers notwithstanding, although that was hardly on him), but Darcy Kuemper has had his moments, as well. Is it propping up an unsustainable win rate and hiding a multitude of sins by the team in front of the net? …maybe. But now is the time to stockpile points, and being able to do so with a new coach is both impressive and basically a requirement if they want to have any chance at the playoffs. Having above-average goaltending while the team sorts itself out and gets comfortable with a new coach and system is never a bad thing with that in mind.
Kalilu: Maybe it stands out more given where the rest of his top-6 mates are at, but Dylan Strome has really taken a leap even from last year. He’s become the team’s primary driver of offense, posting the 2nd best xGF% amongst Caps forwards this far. He only trails Matthew Phillips in that department, whose played the majority of his minutes on lines centered by Strome. His assist totals have been hurt by a contagious inability to finish among the team, but this reclamation project really couldn’t have turned out any better.
Rob: HCSC looks legit, and it didn’t take much time. This is not a playoff roster but he’s got them in the thick of playoff position. His system is taking structure and the ramp up growing pains were not as painful as I expected. This team is more than the sum of the parts, and to me that’s the hallmark of a good coach.
What negative thing has surprised you most about the Caps’ start to the season?
J.P.: Gotta be the power play, right? Spencer Carbery was credited with being the brains behind a Toronto Maple Leafs power play that ranked second in the League over the two seasons he was in charge of it, and while the Caps don’t have the Leafs’ talent at this point… c’mon. Yes, they’ve been unlucky (and whatever the hell this is). But they’ve also been bad and, maybe most surprisingly… more or less the same as last year in look and feel. I expected more.
Luke: I was going to say the power play as well. It’s baffling how poor they have been at converting their chances. But since JP already pointed that out, I’ll go with Nick Jensen. The guy used to be ol’ reliable, but he is having some disastrous defensive impacts this season. It’s very odd, and reminiscent of his struggles under Todd Reirden. Hopefully, Carbery can find a way to make Jensen get going again – because they’ll need him if they want any long term success.
Becca: It’s a little weird to write this out, considering both his history and the fact that he’s leading the team in scoring…but where the hell is Alex Ovechkin? His relative invisibility this season is probably the most glaring and surprising negative aspect for me – and maybe I’m just not paying close enough attention during the games, but I was shocked to see that he was in the lead in points, because I can’t remember the last time I saw him put together even back-to-back shifts where I noticed him in a good way. Yes, age comes for us all, but the drop off the cliff feels too sudden from what we saw as recently as last year for this to be purely age. Issues with the new system? Trouble clicking with a rotating staff of linemates? Some sort of nagging injury? Or did he just not come into the season as prepared as usual? Whatever it is, I’m missing the captain right now.
Kalilu: They just can’t buy a goal. Some opponents have felt bad about that and attempted to just give them one for free, but they’re turning those down as a character-building exercise. Their 5v5 shooting percentage currently sits at 6.97%, good enough for 29th in the league. Even last year’s team, which had a much worse record through 18 games, wasn’t this bad; they did enough to be 14th in that category. It gets even worse when factoring in their work on the power play, currently holding the league’s 2nd worst shooting percentage at all strengths. It was easy to write this off as just luck after the first few games, but for them to still be this bad after 18 games…it’s looking more like it’s just who they happen to be as a team.
Rob: Puck luck and all that, but after Strome none of the vets that were penciled into the top six have looked like top-six players. Father Time might have finally caught Oshie, Ovi looks like *he’s* only here for one thing, Kuzy is even less interested than Ovi (despite Carbery pulling every ice time lever to keep him engaged), Backstrom didn’t last a month, Mantha can’t even keep his sweater, and Wilson was never expected to drive a scoring line and is demonstrating why. The best top six forwards are Strome and the kids that won the Calder Cup and there’s no way they stay in the playoff race if that doesn’t change.