Through the first month and change of the 2023-24 season, the Washington Capitals have had the least efficient power-play in the League, converting on just 7.3 percent of opportunities and totaling all of three measly goals, fewer than 18 individual NHLers have on their own. They haven’t scored a power play goal in November, and are 0-fer their last 21 opportunities overall, including a five-minute failure in Tuesday night’s win over Vegas.
All of this, despite having the sport’s all-time leader in power-play goals and feeding him more minutes with the extra man than anyone else on the circuit, and a blueliner with the second-most power-play points in the League since 2012.
All of this, despite having a new head coach that was the mastermind behind the League’s best non-Connor McDavid-having power play over the previous two campaigns and a power-play focused assistant coach who ran a unit in St. Louis that “recorded the third-highest power-play percentage in the NHL (21.9 percent) during his tenure.”
So what gives?
Well, as it turns out, the Caps’ power play is actually very good.
Just kidding. You’re not buying that and you shouldn’t. But there are underlying numbers that at least should convince you that it’s not as bad as it’s been. For example, their expected goals for rate (xGF/60) at five-on-four is well above League-average:
For context, that +23% is up from +2% last year, and on par with the Leafs’ power play this year. Natural Stat Trick has the Caps slotted at third in 5-on-4 xGF/60 and fifth in high-danger scoring chance rate, two metrics that traditionally undersell the Caps’ power-play because they tend to underestimate you-know-who’s shot from you-know-where.
And speaking of Alex Ovechkin, he’s getting his looks, but has only scored on one of his 23 5-on-4 shots on goal (47 shot attempts). That’s a traditional shooting percentage of 4.4% and a “true” shooting percentage (goals divided by total shot attempts) of 2.1%… for a dude whose career rates prior to this season in those two stats was 14.7% and 7.4%, respectively.
Quite obviously, his teammates, in aggregate, are in the same boat, with the team posting a League-worst 4.3 shooting percentage at five-on-five… after a middle-of-the-pack 13.7% through the last three years of the Laviolette/Forsythe Era. As John Carlson put it, “We’re getting a lot of looks. Yes, we need to score or else it doesn’t really freaking matter. But [we don’t want] to start trying to do too much.”
That was three weeks ago (and, coincidentally, right before a three-game stretch during which the team scored its only PPGs of the season).
The Caps are old and dusty. The Caps’ power play is older and dustier. But it’s not this bad… is it? It can’t be… can it?
To paraphrase Bill Parcells, you are what your power play says you are, and the Caps’ power play percentage says it’s the worst in the League. But the underlying numbers say otherwise. So it’s time for a head coach who has done so much right so far this fall to decide whether to “trust the process” or try something else.
Fourteen games is still a small sample, and winning masks a lot of problems (the Caps are somehow 5-1-1 since their last power play goal, thanks in no small part to a penalty kill that’s been every bit as good as the power play’s been bad). Time to coach, Coach.