How about a fresh sheet of ice for (the rest of) Round 2 playoff chaos?
Here’s the schedule for the second round of the 2023 postseason:
Toronto vs. Florida
- Thu., May 4: Panthers at Maple Leafs; 7 p.m.; TNT
- Sun, May 7: Maple Leafs at Panthers, 6:30 p.m.; TBS
- Wed., May 10: Maple Leafs at Panthers, 7 p.m.; ESPN
- Fri., May 12: Panthers at Maple Leafs, TBD; TNT
- *Sun., May 14: Maple Leafs at Panthers, TBD
- *Tue., May 16: Panthers at Maple Leafs, TBD; TNT
Carolina vs. New Jersey
- Fri., May 5: Devils at Hurricanes, 8 p.m.; TNT
- Sun., May 7: Hurricanes at Devils, 3:30 p.m.; TBS
- Tue., May 9: Hurricanes at Devils, 7 p.m.; ESPN
- Thu., May 11: Devils at Hurricanes, TBD; TNT
- *Sat., May 13: Hurricanes at Devils, TBD; ESPN
- *Mon., May 15: Devils at Hurricanes, TBD; ESPN
Dallas vs. Seattle
- Thu., May 4: Kraken at Stars, 9:30 p.m.; TNT
- Sun., May 7: Stars at Kraken, 9:30 p.m.; TBS
- Tue., May 9: Stars at Kraken, 9:30 p.m.; ESPN
- *Thu., May 11: Kraken at Stars, TBD; TNT
- *Sat., May 13: Stars at Kraken, TBD; ESPN
- *Mon., May 15: Kraken at Stars, TBD; ESPN
Vegas vs. Edmonton
- Sat., May 6: Oilers at Golden Knights, 7 p.m.; TNT
- Mon., May 8: Golden Knights at Oilers, 8:30 p.m.; ESPN
- Wed., May 10: Golden Knights at Oilers, 10 p.m.; ESPN
- *Fri., May 12: Oilers at Golden Knights, TBD; TNT
- *Sun. May 14: Golden Knights at Oilers, TBD; SN
- *Tue., May 16: Oilers at Golden Knights, TBD; TNT
Go hockey!
*If necessary
The Kyle Dubas situation in Toronto is fascinating. I didn’t realize just how honest Dubas was with where he is mentally with coming back (just saw the clip on the Steve Dangle Podcast episode with Chris Johnston). Don’t think I’ve ever seen a GM be that open with his personal life in a press conference. Everything’s up the air, and if he legit walks away, it probably means a major reset for the Leafs.
There’s reasons for this – but can we step out and then step back in again?
https://twitter.com/cbctom/status/1658302934642311169?cxt=HHwWgoC-1fTuvIMuAAAA
Put your hands together for the newest NHL Franchise: the Houston ______ (formerly Arizona Coyotes, formerly Phoenix Coyotes, formerly Winnipeg Jets).
Maybe they’ll be the Houston Humidity?
Atlanta is also a contender, but SURELY the NHL wouldn’t put a franchise where it has failed TWICE already, right? Right??
Salt Lake City is also apparently a consideration, but my thinking was once the Great Salt Lake is dried up in the next couple of years and the entire region will be devoid its one large-scale tourist attraction, hockey will be as popular there as sand and wildfire.
Quebec City?…haha.
The Corner Brook Chaos
You’d think….but if there was a new arena for the team as part of it, I could see them trying one more time. That market’s just too big to ignore.
But so is Houston, which has a cult core hockey fanbase thanks to the Aeros (both WHA and AHL). Plus, there would be a natural rivalry with Dallas just sitting there.
The last move out of Atlanta had pretty much nothing to do with the fan base and everything to do with the owners.
Regardless, they’re not going to move a team from Arizona to the East, because they’re not going to deal with another re-alignment.
That’s a good point, re: alignment. (very subtle joke, there).
I went to an Aeros game back in the 70s when they were in the WHA and got to see Gordie Howe playing with his two sons.
There is a reason Gary put Phoenix in the central division when Vegas and Seattle came into the league.
Moving to Houston, SLC or KC doesn’t require re-alignment like it would have to be if they were in the pacific division. Phoenix will move to one of those 3 cities when it comes time.
Sounds like Salt Lake City is the most likely, given how quickly the Coyotes will have to move. The owner of the Utah Jazz apparently was taking steps to bring an NHL team to the city back in April. Speculation was that he looking at the Senators, but even if that part isn’t true, an owner-in-waiting is how the Thrashers wound up in Winnipeg.
The ownership group there (True North) was working to bring the Coyotes back home, when Glendale suddenly came through with a $50 million guarantee against losses to keep them there. True North then pivoted and bought the Thrashers, who found themselves facing folding when their own troubled ownership (Atlanta Spirit) tried to dump them and had no takers.
That turnaround took 3 weeks.
Buckle up.
Clean sheet of ice for Round 3?
Aren’t you Luke Adomanis of Japers? Can’t you help make that happen?
Dave!
Yes?
Tempe voted down the new arena for the Coyotes (which was to be a $2.1 billion privately funded entertainment district). Buckle up.
Goodbye Phoenix, hello Houston.
https://www.gophnx.com/2023/05/17/resounding-tempe-vote-leaves-coyotes-with-existential-questions/
I’d say the Plans B aren’t workable. I feel for the fanbase, but it’s clear that Arizona as a whole wants the team to leave, so they should leave.
Yet Gary will let them stay and play in college arena. He would have moved the team years ago if that had been in a Canadian or northern city in the US.
NHL didn’t read the room. The area is full of retirees on fixed incomes who vote, and none of them want more taxes, let alone an “entertainment district”.
Also, the current ownership has managed to poison the well with local contractors and merchants, plus the ugliness of how they dealt with Glendale.
Even though this was a mostly privately funded arena with no additional taxes for residents, there was zero trust.
Meanwhile, they think Virginia will give the local football team 1.5 billion for a new stadium (after the sale, duh). Would love to get a referendum, rather than having to wait to vote the schmucks out of office.
The Leafs are in a similar situation to where the Caps were after 2011. That was the year the Caps were swept in Round 2 by TB. It was also the year that Boston swept the Flyers in Round 2 as well, in a year where the Caps & Flyers had the best records in the Eastern Conference. The Flyers greatly overreacted to that (even though that core had advanced to the Cup Finals the previous year and had gone to Round 3 once as well). They traded both Mike Richards and Jeff Carter which is roughly equivalent to the Caps trading Ovechkin and Alex Semin.
Caps themselves instituted a “checking line” the next year and had a much tougher training camp. And Boudreau had listened to his critics and had more “consequences” for misdeeds and got more like Babcock or Torts. (Looking back, he feels he got away from being true to himself in 2011-12).
So how much panic will there be in Leaf Land this winter? Panicked traded. Or Sheldon Keefe starting to act more like a Babcock or a Torts?
I don’t know if a coach can change their stripes and still maintain credibility in the locker room. I think to pull that off they have to go to a different locker room…
A good article I read on the Leafs pointed out that they’re still clinging to the idea of defensemen being crease clearers and haven’t come around to the concept of mobility and puck control – they have all this firepower up front but a defense corps poorly suited to their best asset.
Going into this offseason, they could try to (overreact) and address that, but it would probably cost them either Nylander or Marner – and trading either would be stupid.
But the phrase “hold my beer” exists for a reason 🙂
Hindsight I know, but I wonder how their stars’ playoff goal scoring drought might have differed had they held onto Sandin.
I am happy all the teams I hate are gone, but this has to be the worst case scenario for the NHL right?
According to HockeyDB, the Hurricanes are #2 in average attendance. I am pretty surprised, actually.
Vegas and Dallas are kind of in the middle, and Florida towards the bottom.
Those are total numbers, though. In terms of capacity, only Florida isn’t close to 100% capacity (Vegas is over the capacity, more people than there are seats).
So I think however it shakes out it should be a win for all of those markets except the crowds of “Florida man”.
In terms of how well those finals will sell in the TV markets of other cities, especially more traditional hockey markets? I don’t know, but I do expect that it comes down to having to watch and endure the pre-game antics in a potential Vegas versus Carolina final, I’ll probably be too cringed out to watch.
If a Vegas/Carolina final, that’s meteor territory; unfortunately the meteor never delivers.
I mean, I think (for the most part) attendance is going to be high for a team that makes it to the conference finals. I am speaking strictly from the TV side, which the NHL will make a lot more money from with good ratings. I do not think these 4 teams move the needle to the national audience, but I could be wrong.
No I get it and agree with you. Optimistically though maybe this brings in more fans? The game isn’t really going to grow if it’s only ever the same usual suspects.
Maybe. I have not dug into the numbers, but have to think being on ABC/ESPN would help with the casual viewer? For me, I hate their coverage, but maybe that would help.
Hope we get a clean slate of ice for R3 discussions!
Hockey is now a southern sport.
Long live the southeast division
Southbeast
Southleast
Southokay
Interestingly, during that whole re-alignment era, the Southeast Division was formed as an expansion division and ran only from 1998 till 2013. In those 14 seasons, it produced two Stanley Cup champions, the Lightening and Canes, and a President’s Trophy winner in the Caps.
The Northeast Division began in 1993 primarily from the Adams Division and ran through 2013 producing only one cup winner, Boston, and two President’s Trophy teams with Buffalo and Ottawa, all of which came during the existence of the Southeast.
The Atlantic Division began in 1993 primarily from the Patrick Division and continues to have its namesake in use for something that looks more like he old Adams (other than during the Pandemic season). It’s produced 6 Stanley Cup winners from four teams, Rangers, Devils, Penguins and Lightening, however, only 2 of the Devils championships occurred during the time the Southeast existed, and 6 President’s Trophy winners, but none of which occurred while the Southeast existed.
The Capitals won the Southeast 7 times in 14 seasons, which is more than any winner in the Northeast over it’s run, and only behind the Devils 9 times over their entire lifetime in the Atlantic, but better than their 5 during the years of the Southeast’s existence. The best the Northeast ever produced was Boston’s five in total, since 93. And, even if you take into account teams like Pittsburgh shifting divisions their best was still only five in total since 93, which including years outside of the Southeast’s existence too.
Further, during the time of the Southeast, the Atlantic led the regular season for Conference wins followed closely by the Southeast, with a similar outcome for the post-season’s Conference Championship.
The top end talent of the division was truly beast-like. Unfortunately, the Southleast reputation came because the bottom end talent in the division was pretty dismal at times too.
Gotta love the 2 years Winnipeg was in the “southeast” division
Got a question for the folks in charge. Any estimate when the Rink resumes full operations? Are you shooting for the draft/free agency or sometime sooner?
I know they are working hard but can’t come soon enough. Reading fan comments on Facbeook is rather painful. Some idiot said without Ovi and obsession with goal chase, Caps would have four Cups by now. SMH!
I miss David.
He is still here at times under different names as well as on RMNB.
This guy is much worse. His name is Travis Spear and he posts on Washington Caps Loyal Fans, which is worse than RMNB. JT Dumbaugh has many bad takes on Facebook. Unleash the Heasy, AshleyCaps, and David Cantor are people I hated seeing post lousy takes on twitter and don’t miss seeing them at all.
????
More musings….Michael Russo and Eric Duhatschek of The Athletic posted their first edition of their 2023 NHL trade board (which lists Mantha at no. 24 and Kuznetsov in their “Others we’re watching” list), and it got me thinking of possibles for that top 6 guy the Caps are looking for, especially if they decide to move on from Kuzy.
Based on their info…
https://theathletic.com/4516857/2023/05/15/nhl-offseason-trade-board-hellebuyck-maple-leafs/
Circling back, no wait, that was his father. It would be great to have him in Washington.
Nylander is one guy the Leaf fans want to hang on to. They’ve had it with pretty much everyone else.
https://twitter.com/JhanHky/status/1657203349500903424?cxt=HHwWgIC2-dDqyP8tAAAA
Just learning now that Sar Civian no longer covers the Canes-in fact many teams like the Canes don’t have a dedicated Athletic writer but the Leafs have 15 or so. As usual all the Leafs media like Chris Johnston, Luke Fox etc. are talking about big changes coming to Leafs but so far no one has been fired. Not a good sign if you are a Leafs fan.
Last year The Athletic laid off of bunch of staff. Might have been at the sale to the NYT, not sure. Civian is one I wasn’t unhappy to see go.
She is annoying. Never cared for her style-writing or fashion that is.
In today’s (5/15/23) 32 Thoughts podcast, they were talking about changes coming to the Leafs. Shocking, I know. There was a tiny phrase that was curious to me. They were talking about HC Keefe and whether they’d replace him and with whom. The statement from Elliot was the decision to promote “Spencer Carbery may have been made for them.”
I find that very interesting.
They also mentioned Carbery as a possible choice for the Caps because of the Hershey connection. I think it might come down to either him or Halpern. I’d be fine with either.
I hope GMBM is also interviewing Andrew Brunette. Of the three, he’s the only one who’s had NHL head coaching experience. NJ was never afraid of playing the kids, and with it looking like they’ll be extending Lindy Ruff, he might be available.
https://twitter.com/LukeAdomanis/status/1658528954586652672?cxt=HHwWgICzvYDTo4QuAAAA
Don’t the Leafs promise big changes every year but feel like nothing really does-sort of like the Caps and most teams for that matter.
I think it’s more that Toronto media talk about big changes every year, but then Dubus disappoints them.
Lots of people thought that the Leafs would fire Mike Babcock after yet another first round loss in 2018-19, but Dubus and management decided to keep him. It took the allegations of a toxic work environment and a bad start to the following season for them to finally fire him.
Now with a possible all sun belt final four, we may see ratings so low that the cap will be flat yet again for another season.
I love Canada now gone 30 years without a Cup.
Their pain is fun.
I was just musing today about that. We were living in Montreal, about two blocks north of Sherbrooke, and walked down the street and attended the parade. Jacques Demers, bless him, looked exhausted. We sat on the stone wall across from Biddle’s (Charlie Biddle, on the fiddle!). It’s a good city to be in for a Cup win.
At least Hershey keeps winning? And we’ve been here before, when AHL success doesn’t translate to Caps success. But I just enjoy the ride. I was temped to get tickets for Saturday night’s game, but coming off oral surgery decided it wasn’t a good idea. Depending on the schedule going forward (and assuming they win this round), I’ll definitely consider the next weekend opportunity (as long as it isn’t this weekend, I’m booked).
Malenstyn, McMichael, and Lapierre are having a fun run. Reminds me a little of when Green, Laich, Fleischmann, and Steckel had themselves a fun run in 2005-06.
I recall reading something in the past that outlined data showing in both hockey and baseball, in the modern era, there’s little correlation between success in the minor leagues and success in the major leagues, when success is gauged by regular season standings for both. So, it would seem like it is not a unique situation to find the success of a minor league club not necessarily impacting it’s partner/parent club in the major leagues, and, vice versa, successful major league franchises having struggling minor league partners.
There were a multitude of potential reasons for the discrepancy, though a lot of the major points I recall coming out of the analysis came back to the complexion of the two teams themselves because the rosters exist as a venn diagram. Not all the players on a given minor league club are signed exclusively to play for the parent major league team, nor are all the players on the major league roster originating from within the partner minor league club. With such a small number of players having played for both the impact of such players on the combined outcomes of both clubs is diminished. The success / failure rate only seems to have some correlation when the number of players shared is considerably higher than the average number of players the clubs would have shared. An, even in the cases of an exceptionally high number of shared players, it’s not definitively causal.
What the analysts seemed to suggest was rather than judging what defines a good major-minor partnership at the franchise level, was too look only as the progression of the individual players in which the two clubs shared contracts, thus isolating the impact of those players who came up through the minor league system with a design to reach the majors and their impact in the majors independent of the major’s free agency and other player movement. However, I don’t remember coming across such an analysis on a large dataset, only a few team-by-team articles talking about the percentage of players eligible to graduate between two partner clubs that did, and those comparisons generally ignored aspects like draft positions, minor league player movement, etc.
All that being said the Bears- Caps comparison
2015-2016 the Bears went to the Calder Cup finals. That years roster included future NHLers: Vrana, Boyde, Walker, Bowey, Stephenson, Carrick. Djoos, Siegenthaler, Vanecek. Several of them were impact players during the Stanley Cup championship run, while others have gone on to become impact players for other franchise’s successes.
2008-2010 the Bears won back to back Calder Cups. Those years rosters included future NHLers Carlson, Beagle, Neuvirth, Holtby, Orlov, Varlomov, Johannson, Alzner, Perreault, Eakin, Fleishman, Gordon. Several of them were impact players during the Stanley Cup championship run nearly a decade later, while others went on to become impact players for other franchise’s successes.
2005-2006 Bears also won the Calder Cup. That year’s roster included future NHLers Fehr, Laich, Fleishman, Gordon, Steckle, Beech. While none of those players lasted to the Cup run, many were important parts of the Caps post-lockout rebuild and helped form the supporting cast for the President’s Trophy run.
Honestly, that doesn’t seem like a bad run. It reads pretty similar to the success that one might apply to the Syracuse Crunch-Tampa Bay Lightening partnership. And, during that same timeframe the Grand Rapids Griffens had several finals appearances, and a win, but that success has definitely not translated to a successful Detroit Red Wings franchise, although the affiliate did produce several decent players for the Wings.
Leafs’ pomposity is extra.
#’s 11. (takes a shot at opposing coaches) and 13. Samy who? are especially arrogant imo.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/what-now-42-stray-thoughts-on-the-toronto-maple-leafs/
No. 11 isn’t a shot…he’s holding up Jon Cooper and Paul Maurice’s approaches as examples of what Keefe probably should be doing in the playoffs.
And Woll was a great story. 24-year-old goalie with 11 total NHL games steps in for your struggling and now badly injured starter, and helps them win their single game while facing elimination, and then keeps them in facing 43 shots on goal on their OT series loss. If this were the Caps, we’d be saying the same damn thing about him. Heck…we did after Varly had his run at age 20, after playing only 6 NHL games.
Fair!
Aged well, but not in the expected way:
https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1657931453655576577?cxt=HHwWgsCz0e_3k4IuAAAA
If it winds up being FLA (WC2) vs. SEA (WC1) maybe they can find an equidistant arena in the panhandle of Oklahoma to play their games.
Cut down on the 6 hour flights and all.
When it’s east coast vs west coast, they’ll just put an extra day off for travel. See Caps vs Vegas 2018. All games were and will be at 8 pm in the final.
TNT/TBS gets the final this year, so no worries about Sunday night baseball. (What an amazing screw up.)
That matchup would be Bettman’s worst nightmare come true. The Finals might get lower ratings than motocross.
Hey now.
Yes and having the finals stretch into July or late June as they have in recent years don’t help but NHL doesn’t even consider changing this.
It’s going to be the SEC vs. the expansion team.
Anyone who, while analyzing the entirety of the NHL season so very carefully, knowledgeably, scientifically, could accurately predict this, would be a Peerless Prognosticator II.
No Coronations in the NHL this year. Just one for Chuck, and one for Loreen.
Cha Cha Cha.
One game today, and its at 10 pm.
Thanks, ESPN. I won’t be watching.
Not like it was worth watching anyway.
As much complaining as they do about the excessive media coverage given to the Leafs, I’m sure the Oilers are thankful for that today.
“No time for questioning why a team that has had the #1 and top 5 player in the league for several years can’t succeed in the playoffs, it’s breakdown day in Toronto!”
Really weird, the best player in the league can’t get out of the second round.
Said no one. In Canada, anyway.
He ain’t no Steph or LeBron.
Draisaitl is a pretty good 1a as well.
Because, uh, Edmonton made it to the Conference Finals last season with Mike Smith in goal and McDavid being the leading scorer for the playoffs despite not playing in the Stanley Cup.
Any playoff success keeps the grumbling away, which is why the Lightning escaped it for so long.
Also, the guys at the Steve Dangle Podcast had a really good discussion about this in last night’s episode. Starts at 1:44.
One point they made–Oilers weren’t at the same level of expectations as the Maple Leafs this year. They have a very flawed team, with goaltending questions and a terrible blueline. Stuart Skinner’s unforeseen regular season emergence pretty much saved their playoff hopes after Jack Campbell turned into a pumpkin early.
The length of time the Oilers have been accumulating high draft picks and failing to convert that into a Cup winning franchise is beyond embarrassing. The Capitals produced some seriously flawed teams on par with anything Edmonton has produced, that also somehow won the Presidents Trophy, the conference, the division and yet Ovi, despite his solid career post season numbers, was chastised for failing to lead the caps to the promised land while Edmonton s stars are given a widen berth. Toronto’s no different, though i would agree, expectations are higher because Edmonton was so drastically mismanaged while Toronto routinely managed to land free agents, like Tavares. As many will point out the big difference is the xenophobic reaction to a Euro, and moreso Russian, compared to the Canadian good ol’boys. All three teams are fair examples of how impressively difficult it is to win in a sport with as much unpredictability as exists in hockey. In the end, both the Caps and the Blues team that won the following season, were as much about the stars lining up kind of luck as skill, and they aren’t the only examples of that in the post 05 lockout era.
Because the Oilers never have won a President’s Trophy nor its division with McDavid because it’s been Connor, Leon, and a Bunch of Guys.
Because the Capitals, with all of their regular season hardware, couldn’t get out of the second round, while the Oilers have at least made the Conference Finals.
Because the Capitals’ roster make-up was much more like the Maple Leafs (talented young core with holes) rather than the Oilers (two great players dragging along a lead dingy).
Because the general conception for several seasons is that the Edmonton management has continually failed McDavid by not building a legit contender around round him.
Because the expectations for the Capitals before they finally won their Cup were the same as for the Maple Leafs, not for the Oilers, who have never been a Cup favorite, including this season. Which is why Matthews and Marner–both good Canadian boys–have been hearing the same criticism that Ovi did after the Caps repeated failures.
Because this isn’t about xenophobia. Unless it’s our own by assuming all the Ovi criticism was Canadian flavored, conveniently forgetting that DC-area media and fans were ready to run him out of town after 2017.
Different expectations, different reactions.
When the Capitals won their President’s Trophy in 2009-10, most of the talk was about how the Capitals didn’t play “the right way” to win in the playoffs, not about how Ovechkin was to blame. That crap didn’t come until the middle of the decade, after the Caps’ repeated failures to get past the Rangers and Penguins and Crosby’s Pens won back-to-back Cups.
Picking at that scab while trying to make Connor McDavid the poster child for Overrated Canadian Star? It’s pretty petty, vaguely xenophobic, and definitely ignorant to how much McDavid and Draisaitl have been carrying that team. As well as to how mindbogglingly great a player McDavid is.
But hey, he plays in Edmonton….why should Americans actually care about him?
you’re putting a lot of words in my mouth, again. It’s getting to be a bad habit of yours.
you’re putting a lot of words in my mouth, again. It’s getting to be a bad habit of yours, considering my cultural heritage is Canadian it would be pretty ignorant to call me xenophobic to my own self, but, you do you.
However, you should recall Edmonton had the #1 overall pick with Taylor Hall in 2010, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in 2011, Nail Yakupov in 2012, then a couple of years later Conner McDavid in 2015. They also picked in the top five Leon Draisaistl in 2014 and Jesse Puljujavi in 2016, and in the top 10 Magnus Paajarvi in 2009, Darnel Nurse in 2013, Evan Bouchard in 2018, Philip Broberg in 2019 which has provided them MORE than ample opportunity of potential top end talent to build a team around. The expectations should be significantly higher because they’ve experienced a very unique set of draft opportunities that were thoroughly squandered in terms of both individual player development and franchise growth. If any other team had that many #1 and Top-10 picks and failed to produce the way the Oilers have it would have produced a lot different kind of hand-wringing than the type of criticism that the Oilers have received.
I was questioning the basis of your argument, which I quoted, and commenting on the original direction of the thread’s discussion, which you were defending as understable.
I didn’t intend to call your own post xenophobic.
Saying the Oilers have a flawed team was to me a Leaf-centric assertion. Gents, the Leafs are flawed too.
A lot of Canadian hockey fans are some form of xenophobic when it comes to Russian players. Cherry cultivated that for decades and it persists.
No one up there blames McDavid, nor should they. They did disparage Ovi and they got it wrong.
The Leafs, Caps, and Oilers. All different teams.
There’s flawed, and there’s fatally flawed.
Imagine the Leafs or mid 2010s Caps with a blueline with Cody Ceci as a top pairing guy. Because that’s what the Oilers had. It’s like having Erik Gustafsson as a top pairing guy. And we know how that turned out for us….
That’s my point…saying that the Oilers and Maple Leafs were similar in construction and expectations is ignoring the reality.
And wasn’t this whole discussion about how the Maple Leafs are getting all the heat for failure while the Oilers arent? How the heck did Ovechkin and the Caps become part of that? Especially when they’ve failed much, much harder in the last 5 years than either team, and there’s been nary a peep about Ovi’s lack of leadership after three first round exits, and then no playoffs?
Well, it’s because they won the Cup. They finally had that success that eluded them for so long.
Before that Cup win, I’d seen articles about Ovi’s struggles to get over the hump written by Canadian journalists that were thoughtful and complementary to him, and regular community members here simply ripped them for being anti-Russian. That’s tiresome. And so’s dragging in a near decade-old narrative that died out even before 2018.
There are very good reasons why the Maple Leafs and their stars (Marner and Matthews especially) are facing the same criticism that the Caps and Ovi did in the mid 2010s. Because those two teams are a lot alike.
The Oilers’ arent.
(And the “they” for the criticism of Ovi–please include the Americans, too. Heck…guys like Larry Brooks were on par with Damien Cox. Pot stirrers like them don’t need specific passports. Neither does xenophobia.)
It’s a trolling trap that I fall into – I ascribe anything bad, really bad, or really really bad to the Leafs at the drop of a hat. Just a sick loathing on my part.
Leafs, it could be said, have the brain trust to make it happen, the wunderkind, the Shanny, the dough – no excuses. The Oilers seem to have perennial bad management.
The anti-Russian thing is tiresome, has been for me since 1976. A lot of hockey fans are obstinate. I was in a couple of southern Ontario arenas in March and some fans still wear the enmity with warped pride, or ignorance. It’s a serious Cherry herring hangover.
The Caps and Leafs comparison is apt. The Leafs’ window could stay open for several years, and this year might wind up being a knock on the door before breaking through. They have their share of 30 something’s, but the main core is mid 20’s.
Canada is producing some decent two sport golfers.
Leafs fans having an absolute normal one on twitter, I see.
They have a lot to discuss. The team in no way resembled a juggernaut. Their scoring talent, aside from Nylander, might have begun to look better had they somehow made it through this round. The playoffs must have tightened their grip on their sticks. Painful to see all that star power produce naught.
The Leafs had their first blocked shot at something like the 16 minute mark of the 2nd period. After that, down 2-0 during the no blocked shots stage of the game, with the ship having sailed, they blocked 23 more (and finished with an edge in blocked shots 24-20). In playoff hockey, that says to me they showed up near the end of the 2nd. OT could have gone either way, but they lost.
A damning by-product of the last few games is that now they have a goaltender controversy/problem. Is Woll going to be their guy?
Paul Maurice is to me an impressive coach. FLA plays a great defensive game, and the team in general looks … organized. I was mesmerized by how to a person, they used their sticks in a surgical way to thwart oppo skaters from doing pretty much anything – without putting their sticks in players’ skates and taking penalties.
As an aside, if the reportage on Kuzy here in this page is correct, I think Kuzy would enjoy playing for FLA with Maurice there.
In the end, the playoff versions of Vitek and Sammy with their new teams were the same as they were with the Caps. VV ended up with an .825 Sv% and a 4.64 GAA while Sammy was .898 Sv% and a 3.13 GAA. They’re NHL goalies, but I can’t see either going far in the playoffs.
That makes them career backups, no better, in spite of their regular season records.
This is Gudas after the GWG. Woll might have PTSD through 2024.
https://twitter.com/BradyTrett/status/1657226690626748417
Playoff round exits. Something you just don’t want to see.
https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1657217976473362441
In the end only one team wins. There is probably a whole science around what happens when this happens to teams like the Leafs for which it is said “it’s not a matter of if but when they win the Cup with this team.”
For the first time in a long time, the Caps avoided playoff hand-wringing, and we also wound up with 8th pick. I love the Caps and I love hockey, but in context with entire seasons, playoffs are overrated in terms of the trajectory of any given team. Playoff hockey is great, really great actually, but it’s a compartment that should be set aside from bizarre fan expectations. The frothing of Boston and Toronto fans turned out to be a colossal waste of time, the aftermath of which will be destructive for their future enjoyment of their teams’ game.
They both lost to WC2!
The Coronation was last week, in the UK, not in June in NA.
My favorite tweet of the night: https://twitter.com/cultureoflosing/status/1657214664529330177?s=20
Reminds me when the Caps won the cup in ’18 they also didn’t have a dedicated Athletic writer that year either.
That’s actually pretty hilarious.
6 minutes to go, 2-1 FLA.
The really important question is when will the Leafs fans head to the parking lot to beat the traffic. Looks like there’s movement in the bowl.
There was some counting of the chickens prior to the hatching but it turned out the counting was accurate. Unfortunately there will be a traffic jam in Toronto because I think everyone left the game at the same time. They can see each others faces through the rain soaked windows at stoplights on their way home.
The Bob is dialed in tonight.
Musing on Kuzy’s desire to be traded and what the Caps can do…..
Kuznetsov is a year removed from a 78-point season in 79 games. He’s signed for two more seasons with a cap hit of $7.8 million, which is a value in today’s market if Kuzy returns to his 2021-22 form. He’s still a top 6 center, and unless he completely falls off a cliff, two seasons is a low risk for teams that want to compete now.
He’s not going to fetch a premium player back, but the Capitals wouldn’t be looking for that. They’re probably looking for an Orlov-Hathaway type trade—bringing back picks that could be flipped or used and clearing cap space to make a follow-up move (what that follow-up move would be is another discussion).
And there a handful of teams looking for a change at top 6 center.
You’ve had some of the more measured takes on the Kuzy situation so far, so it’s been enjoyable to read them. This breakdown of where he could go was nice, though I would have liked more what would be available to come back, because I would tend to agree, I don’t think the Caps are taking a replacement top-6 forward back in return.
If the Caps move on from Kuzy, they’re going to almost have to either explicitly coordinate a three-team move, or take on assets that are movable to obtain a replacement top-6 player. As much as I’d like the Caps to fill in the glaring hole at wing the reality is if they move on from Kuzy they’ll have an even bigger hole at center than what already exists at wing, so obtaining movable assets for Kuzy to help replace Kuzy with will be imperative. Not sure what the choices would be out there, but considering the Caps luck with reclamation projects, I can see the franchise taking a bit of an unorthodox swing at getting someone outside of the top available center list in order to reduce the cap hit with the assumption that there’s some cushion to breaking whomever it is in with the supposed center “depth” the team has for the bottom six (Backy, Dowd, plus some combination of McM, Lapierre, Protas to stand in)
Sadly, a LOT of this becomes much less of an issue without that cap sucking black hole that Backy’s contract creates in the top-9, but that’s also a much less front-office solvable problem than figuring out how to do-see-do a bunch of players around replacing Kuzy, which seem unnaturally easy, so far, when they had to make a similar remove and replace pivot from Orlov.
I had another comment musing on top 6 players who the Capitals may pursue if they move on from Kuzy, based on The Athletic’s information from their first trade board article, but it hasn’t been approved yet and I think it expired.
I brought up the Orlov trade, because while that was a three-team deal (with the Wild a small part of it), the replacement for Orlov came in a separate deal. That’s what I envision the Capitals doing with Kuzy–trading for futures, then using some of those futures for help in the top 6. Trying to do it in one three-trade move is unnecessary, and it also severely limits who they’re trading with.
Of the players I mentioned in that lost comment—RW/C Nick Schmaltz from the Coyotes, F William Nylander from the Maple Leafs, C Elias Lindholm from the Flames (pending new GM and coach), C Pierre Dubois or C Mark Scheifele from the Jets.
Schmaltz has 3 years left on his contract, while the rest would be single-season rentals (including Dubois, who is probably signing with Montreal once he hits UFA status in 2024).
As for movable assets to trade…Remember that BMac is the guy who got 2 second round picks for Brenden Dillion, and that Doug Armstrong is the guy who traded for a disgrunted Ryan O’Reilly and Brayden Schenn each with packages built around first round picks. And the Blues have 2 first round picks that they’re expected to offer in trade….
The post showed up, finally. Great read.
Just gonna leave this here….
https://twitter.com/unfortunatehky/status/1655388160736518147?s=46&t=pd5AJfxoLViMUaaQODTK5Q
They’re technically not eliminated yet…
They are now
Timo Meier with an Esa Tikkanen moment last night:
https://twitter.com/GinoHard_/status/1656848052928364546
That was a rough one. It was a tough angle though. Hindsight is 20/20 but Hughes should have taken the shot.
Interesting piece in RMNB about Kuzy. Sure seems like his agent is pushing for a trade.
“When asked what’s gone wrong with Kuznetsov’s play, Fedotov replied that for Kuzy to play his best, he needs to be having fun and he wasn’t able to do so under Peter Laviolette.
“I have known Zhenya for a very long time and are friends,” he said, referring to Kuznetsov by his Russian nickname. “There are people who are quite disciplined. Zhenya is not in this category. Zhenya from the category is closer to me… if I don’t feel [inspired] from what I do, I will definitely look for opportunities to make me feel comfortable. It is an inner and mental state.
“Right now, Zhenya doesn’t have this [joy] from hockey, and Kuznetsov, without this recharge, without a spark, he’s not interested in anything,” Fedotov said. “He wanted to change the team for a long time, he was tired in Washington, and also – not only aggravated, but in many respects it was influenced by the fact that Laviolette does not play the hockey that is typical for Evgeny Kuznetsov.”
From Tarik’s mailbag a week ago:
If you had to pick one core player to not be on the Caps opening night roster next season, who would it be and why? — Cullen G.
Kuznetsov. It just feels like he’s run his course in D.C.
All the signs sure seem to be pointing to Kuzy being elsewhere next season. Too bad because I really like the guy, but very few players last as long as he has with one team.
This team is transitioning from an era of massive strength at center (and a stanley cup), to one that is… not.
I have full faith in GMBM so I hope there’s a plan.
That’s the problem. As soon as they move Kuzy, they have to find another top line center to replace him and those guys don’t grow on trees. And they don’t come cheap. Maybe the plan is to have Strome become the #1 guy, hope that McMichael can grow into the #2 spot or he moves to the #3 spot and an off-season of conditioning lets Nick get back to something resembling what he used to be. There’s a lot of ifs there.
yep
Nice work by Lavs to really get the most out of his players. Just what you want in a coach: put them in a position to fail.
Obviously Kuzy bears some blame, but come on man
Reading the room, seems like the same was happening under Trotz with one key difference: they were winning. I am not in the room, I do not know Kuzy personally, and I have defended him a lot here and hope he stays. That all being said, I have a suspicion this was going to happen no matter the coach.
It happened after the coach he didn’t have fun under already left. To me, that means that the coach isn’t the main problem for Kuzy.
I agree. I think a lot of us tend to attach our own personal narratives to what’s happening behind closed doors. To our knowledge, Kuz has had some questionable moments off-ice that extend back to at least 2018. The team has struggled and those struggles don’t look like they’re going to get any easier any time soon. Dude is also my side of 30 and – if it were me – yeah, I might think I’d rather wind down my career a winner. Someplace else.
Be careful what you wish for, right? He could get traded and the new coach won’t be that different.
He’s got a modified NTC, I can’t remember how many teams, 10 maybe? That leaves 21 teams, and the updates on the list are usually due July 1, right? He could traded before he can update the list.
According to Capfriendly, as of 2022, it’s a 10-team list, and I think the July 1st deadline date for updates is correct.
But all a NTC means is that Kuzy has the right to veto a trade to a team on that list. If the Capitals work out a deal, and Kuzy’s opinion of that team (and his situation) has changed, he could always just waive it.
Saw that article. It did raise an interesting point. I wonder if a new coach will help Kuzy. One that will let them play a more “creative and fast brand of hockey.” I would enjoy this but wonder if this is even possible with our aging core.
For the record, though, the article isn’t quoting Kuzy’s agent; the quotes come from the agent for Matvei Michkov, who’s also apparently a friend of Kuzy.
Anyone want to analyze what the Flyers are doing? I get Briere as GM because he’s got training (assistant working his way up). Jones as team president, though? We’re to believe that years as an analyst means he can run a team? Maybe we’re all wrong about it, but good luck (not really, as they’re a division rival) .
According to The Athletic, the Flyers are viewing the president position as a PR one, with the GM handling the hockey operations side. From beat report Charlie O’Connor:
https://theathletic.com/4508385/2023/05/10/flyers-keith-jones-president-hockey-ops/
Forgot to add: Chuck Fletcher was both GM and president, so Philly obviously doesn’t want two people in charge.
Not sure how that’s working out for them….
The blurb just mentioned “Jones” and I was thinking “what ‘Jones’? Keith Jones?? Seriously though, what ‘Jones’?”
Oh…
I’m sure he’ll be the greatest at his job, ever. If and not, good thing I’m not a Flyers fan.
Sell the vision. They’re the Philadelphia Flyers.
They’re a really poorly run franchise
https://twitter.com/ATFulemin/status/1656648159303462920
Do tweets embed on this? I guess not.
Good for them. And the GM’s son set the tone by throwing a paraplegic’s wheelchair down a set of stairs.
I have a persistence of memory thing.
Update on possible teams to trade with for upgrading the top 6: According to Frank Seravalli (at Daily Faceoff), the Canucks are focusing on dumping the salary of analytics hero and 27-year-old forward Conor Garland to alleviate their big salary cap crunch for the off-season (they’re currently near or at $83.3 million with players to sign).
Boeser is pretty much the second choice (he came out and said he doesn’t want to be traded, which is probably a rare occurrence in Vancouver recently), and if nothing else works, they still may try to move J.T. Miller’s contract before his no-move clause kicks in July 1.
Garland–he’d be a minor buy low candidate–the underlying numbers indicate there should be more offence than he’s shown in Vancouver, he played well and consistently while everybody around him didn’t, and he has both a 20-goal and a 50-point season on his resume (23 goals in Arizona in 68 games in 2019-20, and 19 goals and 52 points in 77 games in the 2021-22 season). Garland is signed for the next 3 seasons with a $4.95 million cap hit, so he’d be part of the Jensen, Milano, and TVR support cast through Ovechkin’s final season.
Boeser–a big buy low candidate given his season, but apparently Vancouver is looking for more of a return given his top 6 upside (Garland is more middle 6). Plus, Rutherford has made noise about rebooting instead of rebuilding, and the weak return he got for Brock Nelson at the trade deadline may account for his reluctance. Boeser had three strong seasons at ages 20, 21, and 23, with 29/26/23 goals and 55/56/49 points in 62/69/56 games, but he’s struggled with consistency and injuries. He’s definitely a 20-goal scorer with a weak defensive game, so you hope that his offensive game compensates. He’s a year younger than Garland and signed for 2 years instead of 3 at $6.65 million.
Sorry, the position of “analytics hero with good underlying numbers but inexplicably unable to put up actual goals” is already taken. 😉
Big goof: Not Brock Nelson (who the Islanders drafted), but Bo Hovart. Got my “B”s mixed up.
Stupid fuck.
”During the Vegas-Edmonton highlight on SportsCenter, John Anderson jokes about Zach Whitecloud’s name, saying … 13 minutes to go, we’re in the second. Zach Whitecloud, what kind of name is Whitecloud? Great name if you’re a toilet paper. His first goal of the playoffs …
Anderson is from Green Bay WI. Sounds about right.
Zach Whitecloud had a great response. He accepted John Anderson’s apology and goes a bit into his pride in his heritage (the last name is his grandfather’s last name).
https://twitter.com/goldenknights/status/1656043028245811200
Poignant ending. Thank you for posting that.
That was clown journalism, and it’s on ESPN for being ok with a bar buried 10 feet below ground.
I’m never ok with the it was a just a joke excuse.
Incredible to me that professionals in media (and everywhere) still haven’t learned a most basic of lessons:
simply never, ever make fun of someone’s name, for any reason. It can only end poorly.
Be easier to just replace them with robots am I right?
They have TFG in their hearts. Shit just flows from there.
Rev up your mock drafts.
The Athletic already posted their staff draft, and Tarik has the Caps taking C Dalibor Dvorsky, who NHL Central Scouting ranked 3rd for European skaters behind Carlsson and Michkov.
But about Michkov….Scott Wheeler posted his thoughts and made this point:
Of the teams that drafted Russians last year, three of them are ahead of the Capitals in the draft:
2) Ducks
3) Blue Jackets
6) Coyotes
If not for Bedard, Michov would typically be talked of as a first overall talent. Same with Fantilli (who the Ducks will take). But given the talent in the front of the first round, and Michkov’s KHL contract through 2026, it’s possible that Columbus could take either Carlsson or Smith, while the Coyotes may believe they don’t have the resources to get Michkov to North America earlier. Or the Blue Jackets decide that with their terrible luck in the NHL draft, they need to go for it.
We’re officially on Michov Watch.
The Blue Jackets aren’t going to wait three years, so I don’t see them taking Michkov. Same for the Coyotes. Both need to win now and Michkov isn’t going to help them do that. No idea what San Jose, Montreal and Philly are going to do, but I get the sense that the three year wait and the Russian factor might scare teams off. Michkov could fall to the Caps which would be an incredible stroke of good fortune or Mac could work out a deal to move up and get him. No matter what, the Caps are going to get a good player who will move into their top six when they enter the league. And of course, if they do draft Michkov the team will work its magic and get him out of his contract sooner rather than later.
This Athletic link, from the Habs beat reporter, let me read through the whole piece despite the paywall. It covers a lot of the Michkov ‘dilemma.’
https://theathletic.com/4501176/2023/05/09/nhl-draft-lottery-canadiens-matvei-michkov/
A lot, because there a few other things involved:
https://www.1stohiobattery.com/columbus-blue-jackets-analysis/2023/05/7877/the-highlight-reel-the-best-of-will-smith-leo-carlsson-and-matvei-michkov
And Mike Grier might have a thing to say about whether Michkov falls past four:
https://sanjosehockeynow.com/san-jose-sharks-mike-grier-carlsson-michkov-smith-draft-lottery/
Pronman posted his mock draft this morning, and he has Michkov dropping out of the top 5 and the Capitals picking him:
As a reminder, Pronman was the only prospect evaluator who predicted that Shane Wright would drop out of the top 2 last year and that he’d be picked by Seattle at No. 4.
https://theathletic.com/4506243/2023/05/11/nhl-mock-draft-2023-corey-pronman/
this would be incredible
I posted something on this subject with links that is pending ‘approval’ and, given others’ experience, will not make the cut, so, in short …
Media frenzy notwithstanding (the best since Ovechkin), and assuming the Caps have had moderate success with drafting and signing Russian players that may have been diamonds in the rough, I personally think they should take a pass on that approach this time around.
I’m a bit on the pass wagon as well. Unless you know he/you can buy his way out of at least the third year of the contract (or more), I don’t think this team can afford to wait.
They want to get younger, and win now, and you can’t do that by waiting three years for your top ten pick. Yes, you have a number of guys in Hershey ready to make the jump, but the best of the bunch (Miro) is probably going to be there most, if not all of the year. And you got a bonus when he was able to terminate his contract – no one planned for him to be here for another year.
Being a little gloomy here, but I tend to think that next season is going to be even worse than this year unless they totally shake up the top six (heck, top 9). Returning five players from this year’s defense seems baffling to me, especially re-signing two guys (who I LIKE) but that are also over thirty. Loyalty contracts with a winning team are one thing, but I question doubling-down on a losing group.
Forward-wise, they are almost stuck with Backstrom and Oshie (and probably Mantha and Kuznetsov) which doesn’t leave much room for improvement…(I think BMac knows this, too, which may explain the daylight between his and Backstrom’s expectations for the off-season and where Backstrom may be come next October).
And Ovie…
If the team is able to re-tool and can find a structure that they can win with, then Ovie’s goals will come. If the team thinks that they can forsake winning in the hopes that Ovie can just break Gretzky’s record simply by (lazily) slam-dunking one-timers on the powerplay until the record is his, then I think everyone is going to end up disappointed.
Point is, they shouldn’t shy away from a guy who won’t be ready to play for a few seasons, because there’s very little reason to think that they aren’t going to really suck until that point, anyway.
At this point BMac has made clear he’s going to re-work the top 6 right? And he always does what he says.
By far the biggest variable is Backstrom(‘s salary), and in that regard I think Bmac’s comment about Backstrom having a “big decision to make” is some foreshadowing.
Re: defense I think
Carlson
Fehervary
Jensen
Sandin
TvR
Is a pretty strong 5.
Oh – and one more ray of sunshine. Regarding guys that make the jump from Hershey. I think McMichael is probably no better than Brian Sutherby 2.0. I hope I’m wrong, and definitely could be – but at this point I don’t see it.
But to be honest, when you’re always picking at the end of the first round – or are trading away picks for veterans to keep that playoff window open – this is where you end up.
It all seems too real. But injuries. Will Oshie suffer injuries every ten or fifteen minutes? Will NB19 have a positive trajectory, stay the same, or regress? Ovie’s agelessness is legion, so I would not count him out for a good season. And what of JC74? All that might make for flounderance no matter what Strome, Milano, Sandin, or any new players coming in might counter with.
The new coach – who he is, in terms of player management and production, will be another factor.
Looking at the level of playoff talent this year, it’s a bit daunting for what the Caps are currently structured for.
So, sigh, I think you are on to something.
Thanks for this post. Some of your comments are posted ‘live’ with a light red highlight as soon as you post – but when I refresh the page the comments disappear.
I think there is a significant latency problem with this platform that’s going to become a bigger issue if it’s not resolved – around draft day, for example.
I didn’t fully understand (yesterday) what Pronman meant re the large talent delta between third and sixth ranked players. If, presumably, Michkov is the third ranked player – do you think he’s asserting that anyone ‘south’ of him is obviously nowhere near as good? Carlson, Smith, Benson, Moore, Dvorsky are significantly less talented than any of the top three?
If that is true, then there must be a second significant drop off from that group to the next.
I’m guessing that Michkov and the guy (forget his name) that Chicago will draft have game-breaking skillsets. Below 3rd are guys that can be very good, but aren’t necessarily the type to give defensemen fits.
Sort of like 2015 where is McDavid, then Jack Eichel taken one spot later, and then to the guy taken two spots after: Dylan Strome. You’ve got a gamebreaker, and then down to a legit top line center (but not a generational talent…probably), and then a good organizational center.
Makes sense. Maybe we have two or three generational talents this year, and numerous legit top liners, and numerous god organizational players – all the way down to maybe 12th to 14th pick. As always, even with the generous talent pool, there will be a few in the top 10 who don’t establish in the NHL.
I was looking at the team-by-team picks in CapFriendly and was a bit surprised at some teams’ situations this year. Bruins first pick is 92nd (Round 3), TBL’s first pick is 180th (Round 6). There are other teams similar to those.
Boston has a good shot at not picking until the 4th Round of next year’s draft, too.
Ah, the price of success. I know from the discussions here, and my own look-see that the draft is not a be-all-end-all, but I think that the numerous picks this year by the Red Wings and Chicago will pay off to some extent down the road.
Conversely TBL and Boston will suffer. Cap Friendly is set up nicely to research this – to isolate teams and see their picks by round.
Just with a quick look, the optimal/typical looks like 5 or 6 picks, with at least three in the first two rounds. Caps seem to maintain the status quo on that. It’s so good to have a top ten pick this year. Much better that than a first round exit.
also the price of going all in (Boston), or making a horrible trade (TB: four picks including a first and second for Tanner f’ing Jennot)
Becca had a thread for the draft but I don’t see it showing up on the main page:
https://www.japersrink.com/draft-lottery-open-thread/
Anyway, yeah, that felt kinda rigged.
From DGB:
A mistake on air does not make it a conspiracy. Not doing it live makes it a conspiracy.
They didn’t do it live with the Caps’ lottery either.
Heck, they didn’t even televise it.
significantly different era in media with much different expectations on how, and when, information would be disseminated. However, as things have gone, the beloved teams that “needed” a big draft win seem to get one more often than not, resulting in some pretty curious scenarios. It’s absolutely going to draw conspiracy theorists when an original six team that was a recent darling of the league is given a quick rebuild with a #1 to replace their aging high draft pick core. There’s no way the league was looking forward to the possibility of Columbus picking one, or Anaheim for that matter, which made forcing the Blackhawks into #1 not just as a feel good rebuild story, but to distract from all the lying and cheating the franchise has been involved with. In a fair and just world that franchise would have lost the ability to pick that high as punishment for their recent behaviors, which is why this feels conspiracist worthy to many people, because even without conspiracy the optics of getting the number one pick for them is bad as it’ll further allow that scandal to be swept under the rug.
In a follow-up comment, I posted links to Blue Jackets’ beat reporter Aaron Potzline’s articles about the the process and the actual drawing of the numbers, but it doesn’t look like it was approved (?). They’re at the Athletic.
Note: I have personal connections to two national tragedies that spawned conspiracies that spread a lot of damage to the lives of people I care about.
I don’t take a kind view to them, nor those who try justify them.
” I have personal connections to two national tragedies that spawned conspiracies that spread a lot of damage to the lives of people I care about.”
join. the. club. So have I. What exactly is your point?
When a real world tragedy happens, like 9-11 or a mass school shooting which are the two I experienced, and it breeds massive conspiracy theories that undermine social and political fabric, that’s a far cry from some fans choosing to believe any for-profit league wouldn’t manipulate the output of it’s product in order to ensure certain results, after all, there are lots of examples of players, teams and leagues doing some particularly shady things and lying about them throughout the history of for-profit sporting.
The PED era of the MLB is a great example, where there was a long held belief that PEDs were in use, but that also the teams and the league knew and was turning a bling eye. Ended up that across a number of investigations this was in fact true. There’s been speculation about gambling that eventually turned out to be true after widespread speculation. Domestic violence, book keeping scandals, in-game cheating, player movement tampering, concussions and other health issues and more that different teams and leagues have covered up and subsequently blown up, so it’s really not all that much of a stretch to draw a similar conclusion about manipulating the draft considering the recent history of team and league behaviors.
However, nowhere in my post did I personally explicitly endorse any such theory about how the league handles the draft, only that the outcome of this draft has bad optics, which it absolutely does considering the knowledge the league had about the allegations against the cup winning Blackhawks and chose to ignore until they were forced to enact the most lenient of punishments.
In addition, the media were let into the actual selection, including long-time Columbus beat reporter Aaron Portzine. He posted an article about how the new selection process goes, which is a pure numbers-based lottery, and then was present for the actual selection.
https://theathletic.com/4453404/2023/05/05/nhl-draft-lottery-format-rules-odds/
https://theathletic.com/4500971/2023/05/09/nhl-draft-lottery-chicago-blackhawks-connor-bedard/
I think most of the “rigged” comments here are light humor quips or comments on how the optics of the Blackhawks getting the number one feel a bit overly convenient.
Most of us probably don’t think this is a huge conspiracy. It’s not going to hurt anyone if we poke fun at it, or roll our eyes over how a franchise that has recently been exposed for shitty behavior ending up getting some extraordinary luck.
To me, speculating that there’s some kind of happening in the background for the draft is no different than when fans complain about the officiating affecting the outcome of games/series and speculate that there’s some larger nefarious plot afoot, or when fans watch player movement with trades or free agency and respond with speculation of tampering and other league endorsed manipulation. It comes up with rival teams playing to losses supposedly to influence standings outcomes, or players targeting other players for injury, and so on. It’s not unique to Caps fandom, as there are certainly some Penguins-inspired theories that run through the fandom, it’s across the whole league and throughout most all of sports. And, not without good reason because all it takes is one isolated incident of a ref throwing an outcome, or teams conspiring illegally on a trade, or a player or coach being involved in some outcome manipulation, and suddenly that’s somehow proof of some larger idea that all the leagues are really as fake and scripted as the WWE is. Probably, they’re not. But, the optics of some of the things that happen, albeit it likely coincidental, aren’t good. The optics around the Blackhawks this year aren’t good, but accusations of draft manipulation is nothing new, just ask the Oilers about being accused of being fed high draft picks for years on end to give that franchise an opportunity at re-finding their glory despite the comical mismanagement or the Rangers about the recent string unexpected high drafts to prop up their quick rebuild despite Dolan’s rage antics. How much of it is really conspiracy theory versus more likely a lighthearted coping mechanism at dealing with outcomes of game reffing, or trades, or drafts that we as spectators have no control over? I’m going with the latter…most of the people that talk about sports conspiracy likely do not endeavor to it the same life-altering manner as flat-earthers or birds aren’t real.
Agreed. And honestly, having the chance to kvetch and poke every possible outcome is a huge part of spots fandom. It’s mostly all in good fun 🙂
I think this site might have some latency issues. Things posted sometimes don’t show up … for a while.
Yeah, I’ve had to refresh this page specifically a couple times to see the new comments.
Rigged
So rigged.
8th is ok. We’ll get a great player.
The Capitals had a 14% chance of getting the first overall when they did and got Ovechkin. Blackhawks had an 11.5% chance.
So…with the Draft Lottery in a few hours, it’s probably good to know the Capitals’ chances of moving up, down, or staying put. As per Tarik:
1st overall–6.0%
2nd overall–6.2% (pretty much Adam Fantilli, who could make the jump to the NHL next season)
Staying at 8th–54.4%
Dropping to 9th–30.0%
Dropping to 10th–3.2%
I know I’ve banged this drum on the old site, but this draft is insanely deep–top 10 talent deep into the first round and first round talent well into the second round. What’s changed a bit is how the top 5 is shaking out–Fantilli, Matevi Michkov, and Leo Carlsson are all seen as potential elite players and have separated themselves from the others. After them, there really isn’t much of a consensus among the prospect watchers with strong connections to teams and scouts. Heck, Will Smith’s U18 tournament run suddenly vaulted him into the top 5 conversation, while really great prospects like Oliver Moore and especially Brayden Yager find themselves dropping out of the top 10.
Corey Pronman, who’s better to read to get an idea of who teams may pick, wrote this in his story today:
Plan accordingly.
https://theathletic.com/4357073/2023/05/08/nhl-draft-lottery-2023-connor-bedard/
A strong second to the lottery today is just seeing the Rink come alive with commentary. Thanks for posting this!
I don’t expect a top 2 pick but if it does happen, I will be the most excited hockey fan in East TN.
And……ho hum. No change at all so far. Where’s the excitement? ????
Poor Bedard….
Ok the puck is in their end let’s set up a control-the-zone moment and take some low percentage shots from the outside. That’ll scare ‘em.
Sam Reinhart – sure, but first let me go five hole.
I thought getting past Tampa was a sign that this could (finally) be Toronto’s year.
1) Capitals lost 3 straight against the Lightning in 2018 after getting past their personal demon. It turned out okay.
2) The Lightning weren’t the Maple Leafs’ personal demon. That’ll be the Bruins
3) …the 135-point President’s Trophy winners knocked out of the playoffs by….the 8th seed Panthers
4) In 2010, the 121-point President’s Trophy winners were knocked out by the 8th seed Canadians.
5)….who then knocked off the Capitals’ personal demons in the second round.
So…
I was thinking more along the lines of Tampa being in the final three years running with a team that looked every bit as good as the previous (and with largely the same core). A very good Tampa team knocked out a very good Toronto team last year, so the Leafs getting past Tampa this year seemed a good omen…
Guess it’s not over yet for them, but honestly, I think it’s over.
I agree, but Tampa looked a little tired and maybe ‘old’ (we’re experts at knowing old here). I think Toronto’s strengths overcame Tampa’s deficiencies.
Panthers, on the other hand, are making TO look slow. The OT goal last night was classic. TJ Brodie, the Leafs 32 year old, 5 mil cap d man just kind of glided in the direction of the behind the net while Sam Reinhart, FLA’s 27 year old, 6.5 mil cap hit Center, who had entered the zone like a man possessed, effectively took his own zone entry dump to the house.
Game 3, down 2, high energy Center who has a lot of minuses in his career because he likes to get in deep and take chances, it’s sudden death overtime, and there’s a loose puck thing behind the net, and a Toronto Marlie between the pipes. If I’m Brodie I’m not gliding into anything, I’m moving with everything into Reinhart. As a network commentator pointed out after the game, the Leafs are not structured to deal with that. They’re structured to score a lot, to overcome their D side issues, and their big money guys have 0.0 goals!
Samy would have probably made that save.
Sammy not being able to make that save because he’s injured is the most Sammy thing ever.
(odd to type that because my dog Sam frequently goes by “Sammy” – what’s not odd is that my dog’s name has nothing to do with the former Caps goalie)
Toronto plastered their own goalie and knocked him out of the game. That’s the most Maple Leafs thing ever.
https://twitter.com/HockeyDaily365/status/1655385928947363843
You’ll have to set your VPN to Toronto. I have to respect Dangle for keeping his shit together in the last ten minutes of this.
https://twitter.com/Steve_Dangle/status/1655380693264769025?cxt=HHwWgoCx4Yn-i_ktAAAA
Oh blast. Leafs down three.
Toronto down 3-0!!!!!!
Toronto is reminding me of the Caps of 2011. I’d say the Panthers will win this series but then lose to the winner of NJ/Carolina. The winner of NJ/Carolina will be the team that wins the Cup.
Yep, EC is that much better than the WC. I still have the Stars winning it all but I think that’s a pipe dream after watching the west.
I didn’t watch the Stars/Kraken game (I hate the late, West Coast starts), but if Dallas can’t get their shit together for the next game, they’re toast. Saw some twitter comments that losing Heiskanen was when the game went south. If he’s the only thing keeping you in it, you’re done.
Watched the game highlights this morning (thank you Sportsnet, for your lovely 8 minute recaps on YouTube) and what surprised me was how Oettinger looked … not great. Some of those Kraken 5-hole goals, oooff.
I don’t Devils winning the Cup this year. Western Conference team would beat them for sure.
On a recent 31 Thoughts, Jeff Marek pointed out the ’12 Kings are a better analogy: New coach, barely make the playoffs, their #1 goalie playing greater than he had all season, Round 1 went 7 games, round 2 a sweep, etc.
That first period last night – Oilers were a juggernaught.
Could. Not. Believe. Cassidy. Challenged for goalie interference. I assume that was to wake up his team or something, because video was pretty clear the guy was pushed by a defender. That’s a video team fail, I would think.
Well, Gallant is gone. Needs to stay far away from Washington.
Why?
Every club he’s coached has fired him after two years, primarily because the players hate him. We don’t need that here. Plus, if you thought Lavy was bad with young players, Gallant is even worse. No thanks.
There’s also quickly diminishing returns and first round exits, which happened in Vegas and Florida, too.
Not the guy for the Capitals.
He is a worse Lavy.
Whether it’s Gallant’s fault or not, the Rangers are not very good at developing their draft picks. Neither Kappo Kakko, Alexis LaFreniere, nor Kravchuk nor Lias Andersson have developed into impact players for the Rangers.
I’m convinced that had the Rangers been in charge of the Caps for early this century, Ovi, Backstrom, and Alzner would have been disappointments and Darren McChesney would have developed into a Hall of Fame goaltender. That’s just how things go with the Rangers.
To me, the Dolan-run Rangers are more about managing headlines than they are about managing the on-ice product. I’m not sure I can accurately express this but I’ll try, because, from my vantage point living in the NY metro for the last couple of decades, there’s more to success than simply winning championships for many of the franchises. There’s a lot of sports competition with three NHL teams, 2 NFL teams, 2 MLB teams, 2 NBA teams, 2 MLS teams, etc. and what inspires fans is different from the perspective of how competitive these teams really are.
For example: A winning season for the Yankees is only defined as one where they win the World Series, whereas a winning season for the Mets might be simply beating the Yankees in the subway series and having more explosive back page headlines in the NY Post. A winning season for the Giants is embarrassing Dallas and New England, where the latter probably also means a Superbowl. A winning season for the Jets, however, is having provided the most bang for your buck quarterback controversy to headline the NY Daily News while finishing up just good enough to avoid the premier draft pick but not good enough to actually make a run at the playoffs. Simply look no further than the Knicks throughout the Dolan era to get a feel for just how low the bar really needs to be and still maintain a rabid fandom.
The Rangers, despite all the pomp of being an original six team playing in the supposedly legendary, yet terribly uninspired hotbox known as Madison Square Garden, are more like the Mets and Jets, and the Knicks, than the hockey workd, and Rangers fans, would like to admit. The team’s decisions sometimes seem more in line with looking for the best tabloidesque coverage than actually winning games. There’s something to be said for being the top programming for WFAN during the off-season and the Dolan-led Rangers seem to feed off of that notoriety.
The team had known deficiencies at 5-on-5 the last few seasons and they went out and got headline seeking players, not ones that actually addressed the issues. Those moves and the controversy around them are what drove fan interest. Sure, they sell a lot of Shesterkin jerseys, because he’s the next coming of Richter and the King to that fanbase, but that’s not what drives headlines the same way that Gallant turning Truba into a human wrecking ball along with picking up Reeves in order to out tough guy Tom Wilson or continuing to collect outdated relics like Kane, Tarasenko, etc. Those kind of moves a great for firing up fan interest in ways that deep playoff runs have not. So when highly touted prospects don’t live up to the endless hype the local tabloids provided, that’s not a bad thing. It makes for great front page fodder which in turns keeps fans coming back to see how the train wreck progresses. One might almost come to feel like it’s almost more inviting for the Dolan led Rangers to watch them flounder around than to see them become stars, because the New York market is already saturated with stars to begin with they’d never really stand out as successes, but to be on that cusp simultaneously of being both potential bad ass and likely bust, now that’s an intrigue that sells.
The Rangers, along with the Knicks, have a unique situation that even if they lose they still sell tickets abundantly thanks to their proximity to both major transportation hubs like Penn Station and central location in mid-town’s business district. So, if you know corporations and others are going to buy tickets regardless of the franchise’s output, you can play fast and lose with what you do with you team and in that you need headlines. Winning is good, but losing can be made to be better, as twisted as that sounds.
Wow. That is a great post. As I sometimes mention, although I live on DC, I am a constant listener of WFAN between the hours of 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. And I listen on a terrestrial signal, not web-based because the web feed is often a ‘pasted on’ national sports feed (probably because of game coverage for NYY and other licensing issues). So I hear it as a New Yorker hears it. I have listened to WFAN at night in Hamilton, Ontario, Montreal, Quebec, and in DC for a total of about 43 years!
In his own way, and I didn’t fully realize until he left, Somers kind of moderated what you are saying – he did it very subtlety, at least to my impressionable mind. The reason I think that, is now, in his absence, with a kind of contextual basis for comparison, the biasing you allude to, is way over the top – and that’s why I wrote I was going to enjoy listening the night the Rangers were knocked out.
You crystallized it. The level of personal grievance against NY teams on the overnight show is currently manic to say the least. Rangers out, Yankees in last place, Knicks on the ropes, even the Mets (not normally much of a concern because they’re the poor MLB cousins to the real men in the Bronx) floundering. In context with your thoughts, it makes perfect sense why the show hosts were laying claim to a Ranger Stanley Cup – for absolute certain – this year. It totally feeds into the fan frenzy. And currently, on a nightly basis, it’s an airing of grievances for the ages. It’s all a hot commodity – losing has given rise to passion.
Dolan is a petty human that isn’t above inflicting chaos seeming to satiate his own sense of him-against-the-world outcomes. He revels in being the bad guy.
It isn’t just the Rangers, and Knicks, it’s the entire MSG empire that is dragged through his sense of personal vendetta. One needs to look no further than using facial recognition to ban people from MSG, then lying about it, and finally threatening to stop serving alcohol as retaliation to being investigated for the potential illegal policies around the recognition software. And, his banning of people from the venue isn’t limited to the controversial facial recognition actions either as he has faced several investigations and lawsuits for such behaviors. He’s also been caught covering up a number of scandals around accusations of sexual assault and racism during his leadership and been accused of shady business practices which continue to be leaked around his trying to strong arm maintaining MSG’s presence at Penn Plaza despite the midtown-west improvement district’s interest in trying to relocate MSG in order to further build out the Penn Station Transportation Hub, trolling everyone because the Rangers and Knicks are suddenly “good” again.
All of that is to say that Dolan’s approach to the Rangers hinders them and he seems to actually enjoy that. He likes when half the fans love him and the rest hate him. It seems to drive so many of his interventions. It isn’t like when someone like Steinbrenner used to take over player management and make crazy personnel moves, because when you listened to Steinbrenner he always talked like this was the move that was going to make them champs. Dolan when he gets involved produces chaos and he’s always sounding reactionary to something, or someone, doing it in spite of, retaliatory toward, or attempting to punish. It’s a business theme. And, it drives headlines. A LOT of headlines. When prospects fail, when free agent signings fail, when the team fails, he can rail against anyone and everyone and garner much more attention than if those kids, or signings, or the team has success. And, a certain portion of the fanbase thrives off that underdog theme he’s created.
The FAN, the Post, etc, they love that kind of story too. That’s what drives clicks and calls and even drives a whole cottage industry around covering the Post’s coverage, so when it’s Dolan led backpage headlines it’s double the exposure.
So far, it seems like the 2nd round is a snoozer. Dal-Sea had potential after G1, but Dal seems to have figured Sea out, dominating G2. We’ll see what G3 shows.
This aged well. 🙂
Somebody done released the Kraken.
Man I hope the Leafs lose.
If the Leafs lose this series, I think they’ll be saying “we’re just a goaltender away from success.” Does that sound familiar?
Down two games played at home, with the added effect of generous man advantages and a two goal lead at the 10 minute mark of the 1st period must feel a bit hopeless. Dang!
FLA a team that squeaked into the WC2 spot, playing good hockey when it counts the most.
I had forgotten that Sammy is only signed for this year, too. Not the optimal time to do Sammy things, but it’s not like we didn’t warn them.
I don’t think he’s *the* problem, but it’s looking like he’s going to have to really steal some games for the Leafs to have a chance.
I agree, and as you mentioned, the D is suspect. They’ll blame goaltending anyway. For one thing, they’re not blocking enough shots. We’ll see if that continues – if it does and they go down in four or five I question their playoff work ethic.
And that could be a problem, although he came through in game 7 vs Tampa.
https://twitter.com/cbctom/status/1654307636718837762?cxt=HHwWhIC9vfuBpPUtAAAA
Canadian media has blame Samy on speed dial.
All season long, all we heard about Florida was their questionable decision to move on from Andrew Burnette and bring in Paul Maurice, who had mysteriously resigned from the Jets.
Man, how that conversation’s changed in just a matter of a couple of weeks–between knocking off the Bruins and Rick Bowness’s harsh public review of the Jets’ leadership core.
Truth
Ha! I typo-ed my own name.
The Leaf’s D is doing little to nothing to help the forwards sustain a forecheck, and the Panthers speed is making them look even worse. I thought going into this that Toronto might be very good this year, but in the modern NHL, speed kills, and the Leafs just look slow…
The Leafs are looking every bit like the Caps in the 2011 playoffs, the ones who won Game 4 of Round 1 in OT, coming back from 3 goals down and taking a 3 game to 1 series edge. But then the team got swept in Round 2 by the Tampa Bay Lightning. I would not be surprised to see the Panthers sweep. (Confess the thought occurred to me after Toronto won Game 4.).
So, expect Panthers to sweep but lose to whoever wins between Carolina and NJ. And that team goes onto win the Cup. (Next question – which team looks more like the Bruins of 2011, the Canes or the Devils?)
Happy birthday to today’s Gordle person.
It was DK btw.
Satisfying results last night. Sorry, ex-Caps on the Kraken – I can’t root for your team. Wait a few more years.
Nah. I like chaos. Especially when it comes from an expansion team everybody mocked last year.
I like the Kraken…. I mean… I like Burra and Grubi
Ah, the Japers Zamboni arrived!
… and how horrible this must be for Leaf fans.
Nobody can gag away a game like the Leafs.
Testing
Leafs getting lots of power play time this game.
Real question is… will anyone make the mistake of scoring 4 goals?