They don’t hand out extra standings points for style, so take the wins by high-stick hook or by crook and ponder some numbers…
.305 – Caps’ points percentage this year in games in which they have scored two or fewer “real” goals (9-25-7, including two 3-2 shootout wins), more than twice what it was a season ago (3-30-5, .145, including one 3-2 shootout win). Of those nine wins, three have come in the last month. And, yes, it’s worth noting that they’ve already surpassed last year’s total for games scoring two or fewer.
10 – Number of wins the Caps have this season in which their expected goal differential (xG±) was worst than minus-1 per Evolving-Hockey, including last night’s -1.66. There’s no generally accepted definition of when a goalie has “stolen” a game, but any time you win when you’re “expected” to be outscored by more than a goal, you’re gonna want to give your goalie an extra little squeeze postgame. Overall, the Caps have had an xG± below one 23 times this season and are 10-12-1 in those games, so if you had any doubt in your mind who the team’s MVP this season has been, Chuck those thoughts in the trash. Oh, and if you’re wondering what the biggest steal of the season has been, by xG± it was the 3-2 shootout win back on October 27 against Minnesota, when the Caps had an xG± of -2.63 and a “deserve to win” of just 11.1 percent per Money Puck, but won with… Darcy Kuemper in net. Huh.
.591 – Charlie Lindgren’s “quality start percentage” (QS%), defined as the percentage of starts in which a goalie’s save percentage is greater than the League average for the year (or at least .885 on nights with fewer than 21 shots against). That’s the highest mark for a Caps goalie since Philipp Grubauer’s .679 in 28 starts in 2017-18 (Ilya Samsonov also posted a .591 in 2019-20 in exactly half as many starts as Lindgren has this year).
.579 – Lindgren’s shootout save percentage (11-for-19), second worst among goalies who have faced 10 or more shootout shots (Cam Talbot, .533). While Lindgren’s starts have been good overall, as noted above, his finishes a little less so at times. By contrast, Kuemper is a cool 13-for-13 this year (no one else who has faced ten shots is even above .850). Kinda makes you wonder if Spencer Carbery would ever consider going to the bullpen for a reliever if any of these last four games that Lindgren starts makes it past overtime. You wouldn’t think so, but…
86.9 – Percentage likelihood that the Bruins finish where they are in the standings in terms of playoff positioning (atop the Atlantic Division), per MoneyPuck, the lowest such chance among the Caps’ remaining opponents (Buffalo has been eliminated, Tampa is at 97 percent to finish in the first wildcard spot, and Philly only has a 7.5 percent chance to finish in playoff position). In other words, after last night’s near must-win for Detroit, the teams left on the Caps’ schedule will have almost nothing to play for, standings-wise. Let’s hope they play like it.