Will they or won’t they? Whether they do or they don’t, here are a handful of numbers to ponder…
54.6 – Percentage chance the Caps have of making the playoffs with eight games to go, per MoneyPuck (it’s 49% at perennial Caps-undervaluer The Athletic). Of those eight games, only two are against teams that are out of the playoff hunt (Ottawa and Buffalo, whomst waxed the Caps last night), three are against playoff hopefuls in varying degrees (Pittsburgh, Detroit and Philly), and three are against teams ostensibly fighting for playoff positioning (Carolina, Boston and maybe Tampa, though the Bolts seem pretty locked into the first wild card spot, and Boston may not have anything left to play for in the season’s penultimate game). Buckle up.
63,959,167 – Cap hit of the Caps’ current roster (including Tom Wilson and T.J. Oshie, but not players on LTIR, dead space, and their player in the League’s assistance program). As a reminder, the cap floor is $61.7M (the ceiling is $83.5M), so the Caps have basically been playing since the trade deadline with a roster that’s less than one Martin Fehervary over the lower limit.
The Caps’ goal differential gets all the attention (and ridicule), but it may be more improbable that they’re still in the hunt with this roster than it is that they are with that differential.
39.5 – Caps’ five-on-five Goals-For percentage (GF%) when trailing, third-worst in the League ahead of only the dumpster fires that are the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks. When down just one goal that number skyrockets to a still-terrible (and third-worst) 40.7%. The underlying numbers are better, but when these Caps have been down, they’ve been out. Way out. Perhaps you’ve heard.
62.6 – Percentage of Caps games T.J. Oshie has dressed for over the past three seasons. Oshie, 37, has another year left on his contract and it’s hard to see him suddenly getting healthier – he plays a brutally physical game, especially for a guy his size, and there are a lot of miles on those tires. So expect another year (or more!) of his heart and body sometimes being at odds (and his brain possibly leaving the decision-making to them). He’s earned it.