So close…so freaking close. Damn you, Philadelphia Flyers!
Alas, it’s over, and while there was a lot of smoke around the Caps drafting the highly touted Matvei Michkov, the Russian forward is now property of the Philadelphia Flyers. So the best advice is to imagine Matvei Michkov wasn’t even a part of this draft, or just imagine the Caps never had a true chance at getting him because he went second overall like he should have.
With that perspective (and even setting aside the Michkov narratives altogether), it’s very easy to be excited about the Caps’ draft and who the Capitals did get, because they grabbed some great and intriguing players! So let’s dive in take a look at the first two picks for the Caps.
Ryan Leonard, C/W (8th overall)
- DOB: 1/21/05 (18 years old)
- Height and Weight: 6’0”, 190lbs
- NTDP: 57GP – 51G – 43A – 94PTS
- USHL: 17GP – 11G – 9A – 20PTS
With their first pick at eighth overall the Caps grabbed versatile, power forward Ryan Leonard. You may already know Leonard from his overtime goal that secured the gold medal for Team USA at the 2023 U18 Tournament this spring.
Big-game moments aside, he brings a high-end motor that never quits. That’s unfortunate for opponents, because not only will he never give up on a play but he will also physically punish you if you get in his way. And then once he beats you for the puck, he has the offensive ability to put it in the back of the net or get it to a teammate who can.
His best offensive tool is his shot. It’s hard and accurate, but what makes it great is his ability to get to the danger areas in front of the net and being able to change angles quickly on the goalie before firing away. When he breaks to the net with the puck and doesn’t have a quality shot on net, he knows where to dish the puck to his linemates for a scoring chance. With his combination of speed and size, there’s a reason he scored 51 goals in 57 games and put up the point totals he did.
In fact, his 94 points in 57 games was 10th-best ever in the NTDP; that’s more than players like Jack Eichel (87), Trevor Zegras (87), Matt Boldy (81), Logan Cooley (75), Phil Kessel (73), and many more. If you change that to points per game, his rate of 1.65 was also 10th all-time, better than Jack Eichel (1.64), Patrick Kane (1.58), Cole Caufield (1.56), Logan Cooley (1.47), Matthew Tkatchuk (1.46). Trevor Zegras (1.45) among many other great players.
Many will say that Leonard was more of a product of his linemates Will Smith and Gabe Perreault, but Mitchell Brown wrote a great breakdown of Leonard on Elite Prospect arguing that Leonard may have been the player who was driving that line, instead of him just being a passenger. It was his defensive ability and effort helping get the puck up the ice. It was his forechecking and board battles that helped get the puck onto the right sticks. And it was high-end passing and shooting while breaking towards the front of the net that created scoring chance after scoring chance. He did it all.
Maybe he doesn’t have Smith’s or Perreault’s elite playmaking skills, but he brings just about everything else to table, including above average playmaking ability in his own right.
There really is no true weakness to Leonard’s game, and there are very few prospects about whom you can say that. He does everything good to great. Perhaps the one area of opportunity in his game is a need to fine-tune his passing, but referring back to that Mitchell Brown article above again, it sounds like if Leonard can do that (and all signs point to him being able to do so), the sky’s the limit for this kid.
He’s off to Boston College this fall to join his linemates Smith and Perreault, where they look to continue their magic together. There’s also been discussion that he could play center, something he’s done before. He has the smarts, speed, two way ability and skill to do it. It will be interesting if he can develop that part of his game and turn into a center. Either way, look for him to be a good college producer off the bat. He probably only needs a year in college before being NHL ready, but expect him to stay there for two years like he wants, which won’t be a problem. He’ll likely be here before the Alexander Ovechkin era ends.
Worst Case Scenario: Leonard’s floor is quite high, meaning at worst he should still be a good third liner who plays on the penalty kill, can get you 20 goals/40 points, and jump into the top-six when needed. Obviously being selected so high, you hope for much more than that…but if this is the worst case scenario, it isn’t so bad. There are top-10 players nearly every draft who never make it to the NHL at all.
Most Likely Scenario: Leonard becomes a perfect top-six complementary winger who does all the heavy lifting for his line while pissing off the other team. A good comparable is probably Brad Marchand. 30+ goals and 70+ points are probably doable in his prime as he does everything for his team.
Best Case Scenario: If Leonard hones his game and keeps building upon his skill, able to combine his physical play, speed, two-way ability, and offensive prowess he can turn into a top of the line forward that could potentially drive his own line. The comparison has been made between Leonard and the Tkachuk brothers, who could hit 90+ points in their prime if everything breaks right, and that seems pretty apt.
Andrew Cristall, LW (40th overall)
- DOB: 2/4/05 (18 years old)
- Height and Weight: 5’10”, 174lbs
- WHL: 54GP – 39G – 56A – 95PTS
The Caps tend to play it too safe, especially after the first round, but for the first time in a long time they took a home run swing in the second round, and boy was it worth it for the highly skilled, elusive winger, Andrew Cristall. The Caps actually tried to trade up to get him because Cristall was a first-round talent for them, but they didn’t have to, as he fell into their lap. This could possibly be the steal of the draft (outside a certain Russian falling to number seven).
At his best, Cristall is a highly skilled forward in both passing and shooting, and his passing game is elite – but don’t let that fool you into thinking that’s all he can do. His shot isn’t particularly hard but it’s quick and accurate and he can get a lot on it. He can get pucks close to his feet up and over the goalie’s shoulders. His hands are smooth and he can stick handles around anyone. It’s this dual threat that keeps teams guessing on what he’ll do next, and they rarely guess right. What brings it all together is his brain, as he thinks the game at a high level, faster than most in this draft. He’s the complete offensive package and in pure offensive ability should have gone top five.
Since 2000, Cristall’s 95 points is the 11th-best point total among all U18 players in the WHL. It looks even better when you look at points per game among all U18 players that played at least 20 games. His 1.76PPG is second-best with those same parameters. The only player better was Connor Bedard, who we’ve heard is pretty decent at hockey, and it’s better than Seth Jarvis (1.69), Evander Kane (1.57), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1.54), Matthew Savoie (1.38), Matthew Barzal (1.30), Brayden Point (1.26), Dylan Cozens (1.24), and many more good players.
What makes this even more impressive is Cristall did this with little to no help from his team. The Kelowna Rockets were, to put it lightly, a bad team. They finished eighth in their conference, but had fewer points than three teams from the other conference who missed the playoffs. Among the league they were 18th out of 22 in points. Cristall was one of just four players selected at this year’s draft from the Rocket – one of them having played just 14 games, one was a goalie, and the other was a defenseman who went in the third round. Cristall led his team by 16 points even though he played two fewer games then the second place player, and the fact that he put up such high point totals with that team is crazy impressive.
But if he’s been so dominant, how did he fall to the second round? Hell, how did he fall out of the top 10? Likely because of his weakest area, his lack of speed. Not skating, exactly, because he isn’t a poor skater; in fact, he has really strong edges that help him stay elusive in small areas. His straight line speed is below average, though, and while that might be fine in juniors, it’s hard to be productive in the NHL with below average speed. The good news is Cristall is a hard worker and knows he needs to improve his speed. The older and the stronger he gets, with the right training, he could vastly improve his speed, and if he can do that, the league will be put on notice.
Cristall will return to the WHL next season where it looks like, as of now, he’ll have to carry his team again. It would be nice if the Rockets can get him some help or trade him to a contender with more skilled players – surrounded by some better linemates, he could be well above 100 points. Even if he has to stay on a poor team, though, his focus should be on getting faster and developing his elite offensive tool kit. Expect big numbers from him nonetheless.
Worst Case Scenario: Cristall is the definition of high ceiling/low floor.If Cristall can’t improve his skating and he can’t adapt to the speed of the NHL, he’ll probably turn into the next Nic Petan: a high-end AHL player that couldn’t find his foot holding in the NHL.
Most Likely Scenario: If Cristall can improve his skating enough to show his talents, he could become a high end top six playmaking winger that can feast on the power play. He could probably be a player that can consistently hit 60+ assists with 20+ goals as long as his team isn’t bottom feeding.
Best Case Scenario: If everything hits right and Cristall vastly improves his speed and gains strength, the Caps could have a superstar on their hands. Mitch Marner would be comparable on that level, maybe flirting with a 100+ point season if Caps can stay competitive during his prime. The Dobber PNHLe shows his promise.
This draft was maybe the best one for the Caps, especially in the early rounds, since 2012 when they landed both Tom Wilson and Filip Forsberg. The Caps could maybe have something similar in Leonard and Cristall (…and let’s just hope they don’t trade one of them for a middle-six 31-year-old winger). If these two guys can hit their ceilings, then the Caps have found some great players to build a strong top-six that could already have Ivan Miroshnichenko and Alexander Suzdalev on the wing, and Hendrix Lapierre, Connor McMichael, and Alexei Protas down the middle. They are a number-one center away from keeping a potential rebuild really short.