Despite not winning this year’s draft lottery, the Capitals should be leaving the draft with at least one blue chip prospect later this month. General Manager Brain MacLellan made it known as much when he told John Walton, “It’s still a good pick. Our guys are excited about where we’re picking. I’ve got good faith in our staff; there’s a lot of good players in the top part of the first round and we’ll be excited to get one.”
We’ve already talked about some names that should interest the Caps with their pick, but there’s one particular player worth focusing on because he isn’t like the rest. While most of the players previously discussed are either top-line or top-six players, one player is beyond that and has all the offensive ability to be an elite, franchise-altering player: Russian phenom Matvei Michkov.
Michkov is an elusive winger with an elite hockey brain and shot, and his playmaking ability is also top end. He’s a dual threat that feasts with any open space whether he creates it, and he can, or it’s available to him. What he’s doing in the KHL as a 17-18 year old is historic and on a terrible team no less (his team won nine games all season in a 68 game season). He’s out pacing what Nikita Kucherov and even Alex Ovechkin did at the same age. Hell, his Hockey Prospecting Player Comparison Tool has him with eerily similar development as Sidney Crosby.
There are some that even believe that Michkov won’t lag behind phenom-in-waiting Connor Bedard during each of their prime years, which is saying something. But if he’s so good how could the Caps even have a chance to snag him with their eighth overall pick? It comes down to his contract. He re-upped with his KHL team through the 2025-2026 season. Meaning the NHL team that drafts him won’t see him until Fall of 2026 (or Spring 2026 depending on his KHL and NHL teams success that season), which is, at the time of this writing, three years and four months out. How many teams want to wait that long? And that’s the soonest; he can decide to stay over longer if he wants.
Michkov (or any Russian) didn’t attend the scouting combine either so he was unable to meet with any interested teams to discuss fit with their team, improvements he needs to makes, if he even wanted to play for them, or anything at all. It sounds like only a handful of teams were able to have very brief meetings with him in Russia after games, which probably didn’t garner any confidence from a lot of teams. You would have to think the Caps, with their Russian connections, probably had the most time with him, but that’s just an assumption.
Another reason teams might be skeptical of Michkov is his size. He clocks in at 5’10” and less than 150 pounds (NOTE: there’s some unofficial reports that closer to the draft he is closer to 172lbs). That’s a small boi. If one thing has taught me over the years is teams love their big boys when it comes to drafting. I went through the last 10 drafts and the only forward to be drafted in the top 10 that is 5’10” or less was Marco Rossi (5’9”), a 9th overall pick and Clayton Keller, a 7th overall pick. It’s easy to see that size is still really important to scouts and teams, and thought probably hasn’t changed after everyone witnessed the very physical 2023 NHL playoffs.
There’s also the fact that not many scouts have been able to see Michkov play because Russia was banned from international tournaments due to Russia’s unlawful invasion of Ukraine, and that is a whole other problem in itself. Even the KHL won’t share games publicly. Will the NHL ever get to the point of banning Russian players? The more Russia drags on this terrible war and the worse things get, does the international hockey community go to extreme lengths? Highly doubtful but not impossible.
And lately there have been reports that he’s hard to work with. He’s a kid that knows he’s elite so he expects everyone to treat him that way. He can butt heads with players, coaches, and fans. Hell, he got into a scuffle with Caps current top prospect Ivan Miroshnichenko at one point but don’t worry they smoothed it out and are friendly with each other. That type of attitude is always concerning and for a team that’s teetering on deciding to draft him or not, that might push them to the side not to draft.
Putting all of those reasons together, it’s easy to see why there are talks that Michkov could fall down the draft, much farther than he should. Some reports are saying he can fall outside or near the top 10! So as a fun exercise I wanted to take a look at each team selecting before the Capitals and guess their chances that they will select Michkov if he is available to them. Let’s dive in.
Chicago Blackhawks
This will be short. As much as the Blackhawks don’t deserve phenom Connor Bedard for covering up sexual assault for a decade, they won the lottery. They are taking Bedard.
Chance of selecting Michkov: Nonexistent.
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks are one of the best drafting teams in the league, so MIchkov would make sense for them but I think it will be too tempting to take center Adam Fantilli here. He’s a player that can instantly come into the NHL next season and put up 50-60 points, maybe more, and then years down the road put up 100+ points. Him at 1C and Trevor Zegras at 2C will make a powerful center depth.
Chance of selecting Michkov: Extremely low
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets seem like a team that would be all in on Michkov, and if they were drafting 5-7 I’d guarantee you they’d select the Russian. They aren’t afraid to draft Europeans and just three years ago they shocked the league by selecting Russian forward Yegor Chinakhov with the 21st overall pick. No one had Yegor going that early (most, if not all, didn’t even have him in the first round) but the Blue Jackets weren’t scared to take the chance, so Michkov makes a lot of sense for them.
However, their GM, Jarmo Kekäläinen, made these comments after the draft lottery: “I think there’ll be a great center iceman available at 3.”
So that means Leo Carlsson or William Smith most likely. And that makes perfect sense for them because they are much better than their record showed and they desperately need a number one center. Both Leo Carlsson and William Smith could only need one more year before making the jump to the NHL. That’s much better than waiting for a winger that won’t make the jump for another three seasons. They don’t want to waste Johnny Gaudreau or Patrik Laine’s years while they are still playing. Nothing made that more apparent than recently trading for Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson.
They also just hired notoriously hard-nosed coach Mike Babcock. Hard to see Gaudreau getting along with him, let alone another young, small, skilled winger like Michkov. If he’s clashing with coaches in Russia, then he will probably not get along with Babcock. It’s a safe bet Columbus takes big center Carlsson.
Chance of selecting Michkov: Low.
San Jose Sharks
The Sharks make a lot of sense as a team to snag Michkov, as they aren’t afraid to draft Russians. They have drafted eight since 2017, though it should be noted they tend to just take late fliers on them; the only Russian they have drafted since 2017 before round four was Artemi Kniazev in the second round in 2019. They did take Nikolay Goldobin in the first round (#27) in 2014’s draft but he isn’t even in the NHL anymore.
All that said, it’s still hard to see San Jose taking Michkov because their new GM Mike Grier already said they want to make a quick turnaround and waiting more than three years for a player won’t help that plan come to fruition. When asked about Michkov after the draft lottery, he said, “He’s got a contract for another three years or so. He’s a good player, a talented player, but he’s going to be under contract over there for quite a bit.”
That doesn’t sound like a guy sold on waiting for Michkov. Grier also mentioned Smith, a kid that went to high school with his son. Smith will probably only need one year in college before making the NHL jump, so I think that would be much more interesting to Grier than Michkov. They probably want to make the most of the Tomas Hertl and Logan Couture years.
But they are reports they are trying to trade Karlsson, which won’t help them in the now, so maybe they are going to rebuild. It’s doubtful, but still I could see San Jose taking the chance on Michkov.
Chance of selecting Michkov: Medium.
Montreal Canadiens
This is where it starts to get interesting: picks 5-7. There was some promising news shortly before the draft lottery, when some Montreal Canadien radio was talking about how Montreal would not be interested in MIchkov if he fell to them. But after the draft lottery GM Kent Hughes didn’t shoot down the idea of drafting the Russian. He said, “I have to believe if you’re considering Michkov and another player that you deem very, very comparable in terms of talent and potential then those factors are probably going to weigh him down, but we’re not there yet where I can say to you that we believe there others equal to him or he’s equal to them for that matter.” Basically it sounds like if there’s a guy they seem around the same level as Michkov they will take the other player because of the contract issue. Outside of Bedard and Fantilli there isn’t a player close to Michkov but if their scouts think otherwise they could certainly pass on Michkov.
They could also be wary of drafting another small forward, since they recently drafted Sean Farrell (5’9”), Filip Mesar (5’10”), Jan Mysak (5’11”), and Xavier Simoneau (5’6”) among others, and they already have Cole Caufield (5’7”), Nick Suzuki (5’11”), Rem Pitick (5’11”), Rafael Harvey-Pinard (5’9”) and Brendan Gallagher (5’9”) on the team. Adding another 5’10” forward might not be appetizing to them. Maybe they aim for the big, almost NHL ready defensemen in David Reinbacher. He’d make a perfect partner for 5’10” Lane Hutson. The latest rumor suggests they are high on the defensemen.
The Athletic posted an article on June 5th focusing on how they believe the Canadiens won’t draft MIchkov. It’s a great article that hits on a lot of issues for the Canadiens, mainly how they can’t control his development among other things. The last line sums it up perfectly, “When you have as much talent as Michkov, the rewards might indeed be great because he has the potential to be an NHL star and score lots of goals. But when taking everything into account, it is difficult envisioning a scenario where the Canadiens feel that risk/reward calculation lands in favor of taking Michkov at No. 5.”
Chance of selecting Michkov: Low.
Arizona Coyotes
Of all the teams, no team needs a player more like Michkov than the Coyotes, who have never had someone close to Michkov’s capabilities. But also of all the teams that could potentially be in on Michkov, the Coyotes seem like less of a threat to actually get him , for a few reasons.
First, it would not surprise me if Michkov tells the Coyotes that he won’t play for them. Why would he? He doesn’t have to come over, he can stay in Russia for as long as he wants making big money. Why would he fly across the globe to play for a poverty franchise that is getting kicked out of Arizona, while also making under a million dollars for three years on his entry-level contract? No offense to ‘Yotes fans, but it just doesn’t feel like Michkov would make the jump to play in the desert…or wherever the franchise ends up.
The second reason is that the Coyotes are a team that doesn’t have room to swing and miss on their first-round picks. They’re barely getting by as it is, and if they whiff on a top draft pick and a chance to potentially improve their position in any way, they’re in trouble. They’re much more likely to go for a “sure thing” (as much as such a thing exists in the NHL draft). If Reinbacher is gone, then Zach Benson makes a lot of sense for them since he plays with their first-round pick from last season (Conor Geekie) and as a CHL player he’s more controllable and is less likely to walk than a college or Europan player could. There is a real possibility Logan Cooley (third overall pick last season) just walks after his college career.
But let’s not put them all the way at 0%…they can ill afford a bad pick but in some ways they’re also a team with not much to lose right now. What would get the fanbase and potential future cities more invested than bringing in a potential superstar who could be the league’s next elite winger? It still seems unlikely that Michkov would want to play for them, but they can take him and hope he changes his mind over the next three years. They have about a million picks over the next three drafts so they might be willing to take a chance.
Chance of selecting Michkov: Low.
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers are a big wild card. If they didn’t fire their terrible front office a couple months ago I would have guaranteed they would not draft Michkov. A small, Russian winger you have to wait three seasons for? No way they would pick him. Unfortunately they fired their GM Chuck Fletcher and hired former player Daniel Briere. Briere himself is a former small (5’9”) skilled forward, so maybe he can see something in Michkov.
The question for Briere is does he want something more sure that can help him in 2-3 seasons to make himself look good or does he take Michkov as a security blanket, basically saying “Hey you can’t fire me until this Michkov kid comes over and we see what he does.” It’s tough to tell. He certainly, sadly, got off to a great start with a fantastic trade that sent away Ivan Provorov and brought back a first, a couple seconds, and a good defensive prospect. And with Carter Hart looking like he’ll be traded, a full blown rebuild is happening, and if they are rebuilding then they should 100% take Michkov.
Something that makes me think they don’t draft MIchkov is they made Keith Jones Team President of Hockey Operations. Keith won’t make the draft pick but you have to think his overall plan is to play the hockey he likes and he’s old school, so they might look at someone like Ryan Leonard, Dalibor Dvorsky, Colby Barlow or big boy Matthew Woods. Jones was part of the communication for the great Provorov trade but the only prospect that came back in the deal was 6’3” 205lbs; a big boy. I suspect that’s the type of player Jones covets. My bet is on Leonard.
Chance of selecting Michkov: Medium.
Washington Capitals
And that leaves the Capitals. I guess there’s no 100% guarantee that they will take Michkov but the fact they snagged Ivan Miroshnichenko last summer because he fell into their laps makes me think they would do the same with Michkov. Yes, he wouldn’t come to the NHL until after Ovechkin retires (assuming he retires after his current contract) but you must select him. He’s franchise altering and the Caps are too smart of a team to let that go. They know that whoever they pick will at best be NHL ready in 2-3 years and even then how much of an impact will they have? Might as well select the player that will take three years but has an instant impact when they arrive.
Originally I had Caps at 90% to draft Michkov but a Twitter follower of mine, Graham, pointed out a Russian YouTube channel that has Capitals amateur Russian scout, Andrei Nikolishin, talking about Michkov and he was not a fan of his attitude issues. Of course he was just hired by the Caps in 2022. It’s unknown how much sway he has or if there are other Russian scouts for the Caps that are speaking positive about Michkov, but it is concerning hearing directly from a Caps front office member not speaking kindly of Michkov.
That being said, it doesn’t mean the Caps won’t select Michkov. There are a dozen kids in every draft that have rumors of attitude issues and a high majority of them end up becoming respectful players. Michkov is an 18 year old phenom, it’s not surprising he might butt heads with others. He’s young and has a lot of growth mentally. Hopefully, Caps know this and are willing to understand and work with him to change his attitude.
Back to the positive side of things, there were reports recently that Michkov is playing straight with teams, basically letting them know he won’t play for them.
Chance of selecting Michkov: Very high.
If the draft was happening weeks ago there’s a decent chance the Caps could walk away with the best winger since Patrick Kane, but the longer teams have time to think about it, the better chance they change their mind and won’t pass up on the elite Russian. Even those quotes from the Columbus and San Jose GMs that made them sound unsure could completely change their minds. The draft lottery happened May 16th, the draft isn’t until June 28th, that’s plenty of time to come around on Michkov, risks and all.
There’s also one other major concern: just because the teams in front of the Caps won’t select Michkov doesn’t mean a team behind the Caps won’t trade up to pass them. It wouldn’t be surprising if both the Detroit Red Wings (ninth overall pick) and the St. Louis Blues (10th overall pick) get aggressive and try to trade up in Montreal’s, Arizona’s, or Philadelphia’s spot to snag Michkov, especially the Blues who have had a great trade deadline. Both teams have extra first round picks (DET 17th overall, STL 25th and 29th overall) that would entice any team in that 5-7 range.
So when it comes to draft day, considering teams have time to think it over and the chance of someone trading up, I’d give the Caps a 30% of walking away with Michkov, which seems low but if you have a three in 10 chance to walk away with a future 120+ point winger, you’d take that all day. If you put a gun to my head, I think a team does trade up in front of the Caps to draft Michkov, which will suck.
But if the Caps do get him, they are setting themselves up nicely for the post-Ovechkin era. A forward group consisting of Michkov, Miroshnichenko, Alexander Suzdalev and Aleksei Protas on the wing with Hendrix Lapierre and Connor McMichael down the middle is quite formidable. It’s not perfect, but it gives you a really good base to add via trade or free agency to make a rebuild quick or, if done right, completely skip over it. Wouldn’t that be something!