Finally, it seems like the Washington Capitals are getting healthy…well, at least for now. Three more players could have hit IR by the time you read that sentence. For now, though, it looks like Martin Fehervary, Anthony Mantha, Trevor van Reimsdyk, and Joel Edmundson should be back within a week, with Max Pacioretty not too far behind.
But with good news comes tough news: an NHL team can only hold 23 players on its roster. With everyone healthy, the Capitals would have 26 players, so three will need to be sent or removed one way or another. So who stays and who goes?
Using CapFriendly, let’s look at the players that are safe, that way it’s easier to see where others slot.
Don’t pay attention to the line or defensive combinations, the point is more to show who is definitely staying and which spots are open when everyone is healthy. Now let’s look at who will be considered for these spots:
That’s a lot of players for just five spots to fill (one forward, one defender, and three healthy scratch spots). Let’s break these eight players into three different groups.
The Definite:
Hendrix Lapierre still has a bright future, but he doesn’t need to pass through waivers and probably needs to cook a little bit longer in the AHL. There’s no problem with him going back to the Bears (let’s just hope they smarten up and actually let him play in the top six).
As for who is definitely staying, the Caps just spent a third and seventh round picks on Joel Edmundson this past summer – so they will play him. Hopefully, he plays better than his career underling stats, because they are not pretty.
The Forwards:
Nicolas Aube-Kubel was unfortunately sent down to start the season but he has come back with a force (granted with less than 40 minutes of ice time) scoring three points in three games so far with a plus-four to boot and a 57.08 xGF% (20.69 xGF%/Rel) according to Natural Stat Trick. Head coach Spencer Carbery mentioned that in the summer when he was creating line combinations he always pictured Aube-Kubel as a fourth line starter, but the cap space forced him to the AHL. Now that the Caps have cap space (due to the Nicklas Backstrom injury) and Aube-Kubel is playing well, it’s hard to see him being waived again.
In the same statement that Carbery was talking about creating his fourth line over the summer, the other name mentioned was Beck Malenstyn (along with Nic Dowd). Malentyn has brought a lot of speed and physicality to that fourth line, but his underlying numbers are not pretty to say the least. He’s played almost 120 minutes and has posted a 37.30 xGF% (-11.15 xGF%/Rel). That’s not good, but because his play style is so eye-catching with his speed and physicality he might be able to buy some time to stick around.
The story of the offseason for the Capitals was little guy Matthew Phillips. He got off to a hot start, then cooled off, but has looked better recently. He’s put up fantastic underlying numbers, leading all starters with a 57.74 xGF% (+13.96 xGF%/Rel). His issue is, although he’s better than Malentstyn, Malenstyn’s style of play is always noticeable because he can skate around laying the body on. Even though Phillips does a lot of small quiet things very well, it is hard to notice him if he isn’t putting up points…and this could be his downfall. If he wants to stick around, he needs to start putting up some points or could be on the way down when Pacioretty joins the lineup.
The Defensemen:
The last spot on defense has been a revolving door for three young players. All have had their bright spots but also their dark spots. Of the three, Hardy Haman Aktell has probably looked the best. He leads all defensemen in 52.02 xGF% (3.82 xGF%/Rel). His offensive impacts are incredibly strong and his defense is above average. He’s been beaten wide a couple times but outside that he makes a lot of smart plays and reads, and can move the puck well. What might hurt his chances to stick around is the fact that he is waiver-exempt and is therefore the easiest of the group to send down without consequence.
Alexander Alexeyev finished last season incredibly strong, arguably as the best defensemen the last two months. This season has been up and down for him to start though. He’ll have games where he’s strong, then the next he’ll get lit up. He would have to pass through waivers so the Caps probably won’t take that chance to lose him. The hope will be that he can stick around and stay more consistent (although granted, that will be hard without getting consistent playing time). Either way, hard to see the Caps taking that chance of gifting a promising young defensemen to another team.
Lastly is Lucas Johansen, who has gone through the ringer since being drafted, mainly due to being injured a lot throughout the start of his developing years. After all this time, it’s great to see him getting consistent playtime in the NHL, but the underlying numbers are worse on the team with a 33.63 xGF% (-12.69 xGF%/Rel). Now, this doesn’t mean this is how he is as a player, as it’s his first year in the NHL and there is an adjustment period that can go with that – but the start hasn’t been good. Like Alexeyev, he will need to pass through waivers, but should get through pretty easily. So if it comes down to Alexeyev and Johansen, Lucas will probably be the one to go. Hopefully he gets more games before he does so and gets better.
A guess as to who ends up getting the boot, I’d say it will be Lapierre and Aktell due to them able to pass through waivers. Then lastly, it will be Johansen, who has passed through waivers before so there won’t be much threat of him being taken again.
So what do you think? Who will end up being waived and who will end up staying?