And that problem is this: They’re just not very good.
There’s no way to sugarcoat it, especially after back-to-back routs and a three-game losing streak during what both coach and team had identified as a crucially important stretch.
The 2023-24 season can probably be broken up into three parts: You’ve got your early section, what we’ll call the Growing Pains era (sha la la la); follow that with what could be classified as A New Hope, when the team seemed to be figuring things out; and round it out with the current era, the Man These Guys are Really, Really Bad and Forgot How to Hockey™ era.
The Growing Pains era stretches over the first month(ish) of the season, from October 13 to around November 8. The team was 5-4-2 in those games, were outscored 34-22 (25-17 at even strength), and had an abysmal power play hovering just below 10%. They were trailing in games far more than they were leading (~246 minutes compared to just under 101 with the lead), and managed just a single game in which they scored more than three goals.
That was followed by a period we’ll call A New Hope, when things started to improve – from roughly around November 10 leading up to the Christmas break. Not to say that the team was perfect, because they definitely were not. They were getting slightly more offense, though (including – gasp! – on the power play), locking things down on defense, and getting excellent goaltending. That led them to put up a record of 12-5-3, and by the time the break rolled around, they were holding down the top Wild Card spot, trailed the Metro Division third-place Flyers by a point, and had at least two games in hand on just about everyone ahead of them.
And everyone was happy and there was much joy and celebration, and the boys headed out for a well-deserved rest.
When they returned? It all fell apart. That first game back from the break kicked off the current Man These Guys are Really, Really Bad and Forgot How to Hockey™ era we’re all enjoying right now.
Let’s take a look at some of the surface-level numbers over the team’s last 15 games:
- 5-9-1, points percentage of .367 (tied for fourth-worst)
- GF/GP: 2.27 (30th)
- GA/GP: 3.60 (26th)
- PP%: 17.5 (21st)…but 3 shorthanded goals-against, tied for the most allowed
- PK%: 74.4 (28th)
- SF/GP: 25.6 (30th)
- SA/GP: 30.1 (17th)
Peek at some of their underlying stats and things look even more bleak:
And then there’s this fun graphic showing xGoals Differential at five-on-five (via MoneyPuck)…
Hope everyone had their parachutes out for that dropoff…
So what’s happening here? Well, we may not know the “why” (not entirely, at least, although not getting goals from some of the guys who are paid a ton of money to score goals is going to hurt and has pretty much all season). But the biggest thing the Caps have been struggling with since the holidays is in their own end – defense and goaltending. They were scoring a little more in that middle, happier stretch of games, going from 2 goals/game to 2.6 (and that uptick wasn’t just a swing in percentages – their expected goals were up as well). That’s fallen off a bit, down to 2.2 goals/game through Wednesday night in Colorado), but even when the offense hasn’t been there – so again, basically all year – they’ve had support from the back end. Defense and goaltending have been covering up a multitude of sins to this point, and they’re no longer doing that.
In short, this is a team that doesn’t score a lot, can’t keep the puck out of their own net, and is struggling to find consistency on special teams. They are just a not-very-good team, stuck in a stretch of games where those issues are exacerbated by the fact that nothing is going right.
Not everything is SO bad, of course. There are and will always be bright spots, even in the darkest of seasons (which this is not, although it certainly ain’t good). Coach Carbery and his staff have gotten about as much out of this team as one could expect, and they’ve picked up some solid wins amid the chaotic and lopsided losses. Those inconsistent special teams have been much better of late, even with the team’s recent penchant for giving up shorthanded goals. T.J. Oshie returned from his Magical Minnesota Back Treatment and been red hot, Dylan Strome continues to put up points, and Charlie Lindgren has stolen a game here and there.
But none of that is enough to do more than give us faint positives in a sea of negatives.
The crazy thing, and perhaps the troubling thing, is that the Caps aren’t out of the playoff race by any stretch of the imagination, even with some recent losses making that hill a little tougher to climb. The Metropolitan, and a lot of the teams in the Eastern Conference race in general, are locked in some kind of mid-off, each trying to be more lackluster than the next – and the Caps have games in hand on just about all of them. Get hot at the right time, and you’re playoff-bound…even if the best thing for the team is probably another missed postseason.
For now, though, our focus is on the present and this team that seems to be struggling with just about all of the basic elements of hockey. It’s made for a less-than-fun product to watch as fans, and it can’t be fun for the players or coaching staff, either – but here we are.
46 games down…36 to go.