Three things we’re talking about today when we’re talking about the Caps…
1. Not so Special
There’ll be plenty of time to talk about the Caps’ future, some of which looks even brighter today than it did before the playoffs started. But for now, a quick look back on the series that was, starting with the obvious long pole in the tent, the Caps’ special teams.
Over the four games, the Caps’ power play went 2-for-17 (11.8%) and came out dead even in goal differential, yielding a pair of soul-crushing shorties. And it’s not like it was a particularly snake-bitten unit either – per Natural Stat Trick, the Caps only generated 2.54 expected goals (xGF) with the extra man (and 2.54-for-17 is a still shitty 14.9%) and had a 15.4 shooting percentage (a mark that would’ve been fourth in the League over the course of the regular season). The Caps’ 5.22 xGF/60 was way down from 9.07 for the regular season, a campaign in which the unit struggled mightily in the first half of the season and excelled during much of the second half. Getting the power play figured out will be a top priority for a coach who’s real strength was supposed to be exactly that, and a general manager who absolutely needs to add to his team’s high-end talent this summer.
On the flip side of the coin is the penalty kill which was a woeful 10-for-16 (62.5%). Putting aside the number of opportunities (four per game is too many against a team like New York), the Caps’ penalty kill provided little challenge to the Rangers’ power play, and a big part of that was not getting the saves to which they’d become accustom. The result was six New York power play goals on 3.95 xGF, or a goal above expectations every two games via a .760 save percentage that included a .714 low-danger mark. During the regular season, the Caps’ PK allowed fewer goals than expected (49 on 55.5 xGA), thanks to a .867 save percentage overall and .915 on low-danger shots.
Here’s a composite look at both teams’ power plays:
At the end of the day (or series), the Caps’ power play didn’t generate enough (shorties aside) and the penalty kill didn’t get the stops against a terrific Rangers’ power play. That’s pretty much what decided the series.
2. No Offense…
Much has been (and will continue to be) made of Alex Ovechkin’s first career point-less playoff series, but he certainly wasn’t alone in his offensive ineptitude. Other Caps forwards who were held without a goal during the series included Sonny Milano (15 regular-season tallies), T.J. Oshie (12) and Nic Dowd (12), the team’s 5th-through-7th leading goal-getters among dudes who finished the season with the team. Dylan Strome (27), Connor McMichael (18) and Tom Wilson (18) – numbers two through four – finished with one apiece, meaning the Caps’ top-seven goal-scorers from the regular season came through with three goals in four games in the playoffs. Martin Fehervary – he of the three regular-season goals – led the team with two goals, and the only other goal from a forward was Hendrix Lapierre’s Game 4 beauty.
To his credit, Ranger netminder Igor Shesterkin was good (and got better as the series went on, more or less). But the Caps’ offense struggled (see bullet 1A above), as it did for much of the regular season, finishing with one goal twice, two once and three once. From March 28 through the end of the playoffs, they managed to score more than two goals in just two of 15 games (that three-spot in Game 2 and a 4-2 win over Tampa in the regular season’s last week). And if you’re not scoring…
3. … None Taken
This is a tough one. Charlie Lindgren was the Caps’ most valuable player during the regular season, full stop. There is no playoff series to talk about without his performance, especially down the stretch.
But he wasn’t good enough in these last four games, posting save percentages of .871, .857, .864 and .864, yielding more goals than expected (see bullet 1B above) after a regular season that was very much the opposite of that.
The Caps were always going to need Lindgren to be great-not-good if they were going to have a chance against the Rangers and he wasn’t. They needed him to steal a game or two (or four) and he didn’t.