Three things we’re talking about today when we’re talking about the Caps…
1. Fight for Ol’ D.C.
As the cliché goes, a series doesn’t really begin until someone loses at home. Absurd as that is (and it is), for all the hemming and hawing over Games 1 and 2, all the Rangers have done is hold serve. Theoretically, if the Caps do the same and can steal a game at MSG, they win the series. So the Caps will look to defend home ice tonight and Sunday, then look for their next chance to win one-of-four on enemy ice.
The Caps weren’t particularly dominant at Capital One Arena this season, going 22-12-7, while the Rangers’ 25-12-4 mark was the fourth-best in the League away from home. But Washington did take both games in the District from New York (4-0 and 3-2), which is ostensibly why they play the games.
Per WhoWins, when leading a best-of-seven 2-0, the Rangers have “a Game 3 record of 5-10 (with an active five-Game 3 losing streak).” That’s cool. Unfortunately, down 2-0, the Caps have a Game 3 record of 3-6, most recently dropping Game 3 in the weird-ass bubble to the Islanders. Of course, they were also down 0-2 to the Blue Jackets in 2018 and that spring ended rather favorably.
Point being, no one knows nothin’ and the past doesn’t predict the future. The Caps have one game tonight and if they win it, this is a series. If they lose it, well… fellas, it’s been good to know ya. You’d rather play a game like that at home ten times out of ten.
2. Big D Energy?
The updates on ailing blueliners is… encouraging?
Stay tuned.
Regardless of how that plays out, there looks to be at least one lineup change in store for Game 4, and that’s an infusion of a little offensive potential:
3. Mr. Wilson
Tom Wilson’s 2023-24 regular season might be best characterized as “just okay.” He stayed pretty healthy (or played at least) after an injury-riddled 2022-23 campaign, but managed only 18 goals on his lowest shooting percentage since before the Cup. He played solid defense and probably deserved better offensive results than he got.
But like many of his teammates, Wilson’s season took a turn for the better around the All-Star break, and he ended the regular-season peaking at the right time (Wilson hasn’t posted a negative GameScore since March 13; granted, he missed a half-dozen games in the interim for… reasons):
Wilson has carried that momentum into the playoffs, scoring a big Game 2 goal and adding a primary assist in each game (as a reminder, the Caps have scored four goals total), and he’s been on the ice for just one of New York’s eight tallies (which includes just under five minutes of spotless penalty killing). He’s taking a penalty (they didn’t score) and drawn one (they didn’t score), and his discipline has been pretty good, largely ignoring that one weirdly tall guy, not retaliating for Artemi Panarin’s high hit on T.J. Oshie (yet), and not being goaded into bad penalties, despite New York repeatedly trying to get him to do so with stuff like this:
If you were to say that Wilson has been the best Cap through two games, GameScore would agree with you:
Wilson’s play through two games is obviously encouraging within this series. But it’s also encouraging going forward, as the rugged 30-year-old is showing that he’s still capable of playing at this level, which is critically important to the Caps’ success beyond this spring. And it’s always good to see Tom Wilson as a focal point for the right reasons.