Q1: What three players need to step up their game for the Washington Capitals in their opening-round series against the Rangers?
J.P.: I’m going to cop out here and say it’s less about individuals being better (though I’d sure like to see more from Tom Wilson, Max Pacioretty and Connor McMichael) and more about the team playing as well as they did against Boston and Tampa in the last week. Outside of Charlie Lindgren, this is the least individual-dependent Caps team we’ve seen in the Ovechkin Era (owing, of course, to Ovi coming back to the pack a bit), but if anyone wants to turn into John Druce for two weeks, now would be a good time.
Luke: If the question is just in general who needs to be the best then it always starts with the goalie. The Caps have been goalied enough in the playoff to know that. It’s not that Charlie Lindgren needs to step up, because he’s been stellar for the Caps all season, but if Caps want to walk out of the series alive Lindgren will need to stay up there. Along the same vein, if Rasmus Sandin is going to be out to start the series, the Caps will need backend anchor, John Carlson, to be huge, especially offensively. Lastly, I think Alexander Ovechkin will need to be Ovechkin. He’s been a great leader and the Caps will need that desperately this series.
J.P.: Yeah, I agree with Luke – their best dudes have to be their best dudes.
RP: Yeah, the best dudes need to be the best, and in that light it’s gonna be Chucky, Carlson, and Strome. But how much more can you really ask of those guys? And aside from a goalie, you can’t win playoff series on individual performances. This is a one line team on a good day, but to hang with the top team in the league you are going to need at least two lines than can do damage, and there’s only one way that happens. McMichael needs a big series—he had some inspired energy against Philly but he needs to find a way to produce; TvR is the only path they have to a competent second pair, so he needs a big series; and Wilson needs to look like Wilson (and I don’t mean suspended)—he’s built for playoff hockey and a leader on the team, he needs to find a way to bring some of the performance that got him the current contract and less of the performance we’ve seen under the current contract.
Becca: Tom Wilson absolutely needs to step up, and not in a “drops the gloves against Matt Rempe in a meaningless d**k=measuring contest” kind of way. He’s at the top of my list, especially after a regular season that was…not his best. If Rasmus Sandin and Nick Jensen are able to come back, they need to be at their best – as much as John Carlson is clearly the backbone of this team, he can’t hold down the defense all by himself (or can he?). And I’ll throw in a cheat here and say the whole fourth line, because sometimes these types of series revolve around your depth guys.
Q2: What is the Caps’ biggest strength vs. the Rangers? Their biggest weakness?
J.P.: Neither of these teams is great at five-on-five (per Natural Stat Trick, the Rangers are 20th in the League in score- and venue-adjusted expected Goals-For percentage (xGF%) at 49.3, while the Caps are 25th at 46.9%), so that’s where the Caps will want to play them – New York had the third-best power-play and penalty kill in the League over the course of the regular season, and the Caps rated 17th and 18th in those metrics, respectively (through Tuesday). And the fact that the biggest strength I could identify is an area in which the Caps are only a bit worse than the Rangers is pretty telling.
Actually, scratch that – the weakness (both special teams) stands, but the Caps’ biggest strength is their massive advantage behind the bench.
Luke: I’ll start with the Caps’ biggest weakness because that’s easiest. The answer is just about everything. The truth is the Rangers are just a better team, at least on paper, you don’t win the President’s Trophy otherwise. They are strong offensively with one of the best defensemen and goalies in the game, spending up to the cap. The Caps… don’t have that and have over $7M in cap space available.
The Caps strength is they have nothing to lose. No one expected them to make the playoffs and are here just for the vibes. President Trophy winners are notorious for bowing out in the first couple series, as Caps fans know too well. The Boston Bruins had the best team in league history last season and were eliminated in the first round. Also added to this since the All Star break the Caps have had better analytics (NYR: 49.11SCF%, 47.95HDCF%, 47.31xGF%. WSH: 50.13SCF%, 50.95HDCF%, 49.47xGF%).
RP: Rags have more top end skill and more depth so basically pick whichever weakness you want. Where the Caps have the advantage is in Hate: they hate Peter Laviolette more than anyone on the Rangers hates anyone on the Caps, even Wilson. You saw what the hate did for them the first time they got to see Lavi, hopefully the hate can sustain them for two weeks, mix with a couple good bounces and excellent goaltending, and send Lavi home to an early summer again.
Q3: Predictions – hit us with ‘em.
J.P.: Let’s be real here – the Caps are up against a stacked Presidents’ Trophy winner after using what appeared to be every ounce of their energy and ability to sneak into the playoffs as arguably one of the very weakest postseason participants in the salary cap era. Caps in five.
Luke: Let’s be realistic, this SHOULD be a five-game win or even series sweep for the Rangers, and if I had money to burn that’s what I would bet on, but the Caps have thrived at close games this season and playoff games tend to be pretty close. If they can get some bounces I can easily see the Caps with the upset.
RP: Caps in 6 with a -6 goal differential.
Becca: I think the Caps could surprise some people and win a couple, but ultimately I’m saying Rangers in 6. Or Caps in 3, let’s get wild.
Bonus: How much do you care about the Capitals’ much-discussed goal differential?
J.P.:
Luke: Goal differential is plus/minus, basically. It doesn’t give much context. All this says is Caps lost big and won small. Who cares? They’re in the playoffs.
Becca: Yeah, the sheer number of people who had probably never talked about or looked at goal differential ever yet now seem to be experts in how it’s the mark of the worst team to ever make the playoffs. Give me a break.