When the Caps sent Erik Gustafsson and the first-round pick they’d acquired from Boston to Toronto in exchange for Rasmus Sandin at the end of last February, expectations were high for the Swedish blueliner. But like many of his teammates, he’s off to a slow start in 2023-24. Now ten games into the season, is there cause for concern or reason for optimism going forward? Here to offer some more insight into that situation is special guest contributor and BFF of the rink, Pat Holden (@pfholden), whose other musings you can check out by subscribing to his newsletter, Pokechecked by Murphy.
Rasmus Sandin posted 35 points last season. Through 10 games this season, he has just one point, an assist. But it’s not yet time to be concerned about his production. [Ed. Note: In fact, we had him trending up this week.]
The Caps rank 31st in the NHL in goals, scoring just 19 times in their first 10 games. So most players on the roster are well below their normal production rates. Perhaps Sandin and his teammates will struggle to score all season. But there’s plenty of reasons to think an increase in production is coming.
The team is shooting just 5.8 percent with Sandin on the ice. Further, at five-on-five, Sandin’s on-ice expected goals-for rate is 2.63 per 60 minutes, but his actual goals-for rate is barely half of that, at 1.48. So the Caps are likely to start seeing more goals go their way with Sandin on the ice if that expected rate holds.
But there are also numerous reasons why Sandin specifically is likely to be involved on the score sheet. At the most basic level, Sandin has an individual points percentage (IPP) of 20 percent this season. Last season during his time with the Caps, his IPP stood at 50 percent, and his career low is 31.6 percent.
The increase in production won’t just come from positive IPP regression. Sandin’s underlying offensive numbers are better this season than any other time in his career:
A career high in individual shot rate? Check. The highest individual expected goal rate of his career? Yup, we’ve got that too.
It’s possible Sandin and the Caps will struggle offensively all season. But the team is currently underperforming its expected goals when he’s on the ice, converting on a lower rate of shots than we’d expect, and Sandin is posting the best underlying individual offensive numbers of his career. So, it’s safe to assume more production should be coming from the young blueliner.