As the Caps head out for a post-Thanksgiving West Coast swing, here are a handful of numbers to ponder…
5 – Number of regulation losses the Caps have suffered so far, and when we say “suffered,” we mean it:
You’ve gotta hand it to the Caps – when they lose, they lose. Sure, they also have two overtime/shootout losses on the ledger, but their five regulation losses by three or more goals is by far the most of any team with a points percentage above .600 (no one else has even four) and the main reason their -7 actual goal differential overall (i.e. removing the “goals” from shootouts) is the worst among the 17 teams with a points percentage above .477 (the Caps are currently at .647).
So is the Caps’ goal differential misleading because of a handful of truly atrocious games, or is their points percentage overstating the team’s quality? Yes?
-13.4 – Caps’ goals scored above expectation, worst in the League:
What’s “impressive” is that the Caps have managed that in just 16 games played (only Ottawa, at 15, had played fewer games at the time of the graphic above). The power play is obviously a big driver here (because as bad as you think the Caps are with the extra man, you’d “expect” more than literally zero goals over the last month), but they’re underwater at fives, as well. So we should expect some regression there, but… honestly, not much:
This is a bad offense that’s underperforming – not a great combination, and it’s not as if their defense has been stellar either:
If not for good (at times great) goaltending and the concentration of goals against mentioned in the previous bullet, this team could be in real trouble right now:
55.2 – Caps’ share of total power-play time in their games, fifth-highest in the League:
On first blush, this seems like a good thing (“At least the Caps are spending more of the game with the man advantage than their opponents,” you’d think). And for a normal, functioning power play, it would be. But the reason the Caps have such a large share of power-play time is that they’re using the full two minutes every time out rather than cutting that time down by, y’know, scoring goals (and giving up goals seven seconds into opponents’ power-play opportunities like they did on Friday doesn’t help that denominator either). While it is true that the Caps have been well-disciplined (i.e. not taking a lot of minors), they’ve also been pretty poor at drawing penalties and, as a result, are slightly in the red there, too:
The Caps’ 50 power plays are the fewest in the League (fifth-fewest on a per game basis), and their 52 times shorthanded are tied for the circuit low (sixth-lowest per match). So yeah, it’d actually be nice to see the Caps’ share of total power-play time decrease, especially if it’s the result of a handful of short power plays that are immediately followed by faceoffs at center ice.