Aliaksei Protas, the large center (who plays wing, as well), has impressed wherever he’s played. He’s hard working, incredibly smart, sneakily skilled, and is just waiting to break out.
Protas entered the NHL two seasons ago, and since then, among Washington Capitals forwards that played at least 40 games (he’s played 91 games), he’s second in both Shot Attempts (CF%) and Expected Goals (xGF%), and third in both Scoring Chance (SCF%) and High Danger Chances (HDCF%). That’s very impressive for a 20-22 year old kid who didn’t even come over to North America until he turned 18.
Let’s focus specifically on the most recent season for Protas. Here are his five-on-five adjusted numbers through 58 games played, per NaturalStatTrick, along with how those numbers track relative to teammates and where they rank on the team overall:
- 11:03 TOI/GP
- 52.96 CF% (+4.47) – 3rd
- 54.28xGF% (+5.60) – 1st
- 52.06SCF% (+3.34) – 4th
- 54.40HDCF% (+7.32) – 3rd
- 30.36 OZ% – 4th-lowest
Based on these numbers, in a season that most Capital players and fans want to forget, Protas thrived (like he did the season before). Being tops in xGF% is incredibly impressive. And oh, yeah, he did it with the fourth-lowest offensive-zone starts, which is basically the opposite of being sheltered.
Granted, Protas earned these numbers mainly playing on the fourth line, meaning his competition was “easier” – but that doesn’t mean he was playing against only low competition the whole time. Using PuckIQ we can see how Protas matched up in 193 minutes of ice time against elite talent:
- 52.2DFF% – 2nd
- +5DFF%RC – 3rd
The DFF% is Dangerous Fenwick (essentially High Danger Chances) and DFF%RC is Dangerous Fenwick Relative to the rest of his team, both of which keep him in among the top handful of Caps…again, impressive stuff. And 193 minutes isn’t a small sample size. Based on his 11 minutes a game, that’s essentially playing 18 full games against top talent and coming out on top.
When compared to the rest of the league, his DFF% ranked 68th among all forwards; it’s even better when compared to players under the age of 22, a group that includes up-and-coming players like Matt Boldy, Seth Jarvis, Dawson Mercer, Kirby Dach, Anton Lundell. Protas ranks fifth in that context and fourth (behind only Dach, Boldly, and Jarvis) when you filter for DFF%RC. That’s a good group of kids to be associated with.
So what does all of this mean? The Caps might have that next analytical darling that every team desperately wants and needs – perhaps reminiscent of someone like Valeri Nichushkin.
Stay with us here.
Nichuskin was drafted high, a 10th-overall pick in 2013 to the Dallas Stars. He was drafted so high because he was built like the next great power forward that had great speed, hands and shot to make him a true double threat. He went straight from playing in Russia to playing in the NHL with the Stars the season he was drafted.
Nichushkin spent three seasons with the Stars, getting third-line time, his second season drastically shortened to just eight games due to injury. Unfortunately a direct comparison of Protas’s and Nichushkin’s 21-22 year old NHL seasons can’t be made, because after his first three seasons, Nichushkin went back to the KHL for that exact time span before returning for one more season with Dallas.
So instead we can compare Protas’s season as a 21/22-year-old Nichushkin’s at 23/24, back in 2018-19. One would think Nichushkin comes out ahead in that comparison, as he had three years of NHL experience and two years of KHL experience under his belt after being drafted, while Protas only had one year in the NHL and one in the KHL.
Here are the same 5v5 Adjust Stats for Nichuskin’s 2018-19 campaign:
- 48.61CF% (+1.17) – 11th
- 49.33cGF% (-1.13) – 14th
- 51.47SCF% (+1.73) – 8th
- 50.68HDCF% (-2.03) – 14th
- 52.20ozone% – 13th-lowest
Nichushkin received third-line minutes that season with the Stars and was perfectly… average. Slightly above or below average in all stats and wasn’t trusted with many defensive starts. And just in case people say “You are looking at just that one particular season with the Stars and ignored his first three seasons”….that might actually be doing him a favor, because here’s what that looks like during that span:
- 51.66CF% (-0.04)
- 51.61xGF% (-0.10)
- 52.21SCF% (-0.25)
- 50.07xGF% (-0.75)
Now let’s look at how Valeri did against elite talent:
- 187TOI
- 43.6DFF% (12th)
- -2.20DFF%RC (14th)
So he played almost the same amount of minutes (six fewer, to be exact) as Protas played against Elite competition, but wasn’t even close to as successful as the big Belarusian.
Based on 5v5 Adjusted Stats and the stats against elite competition, Protas was far and away the better player at the age of 21-22 than what Nichushkin showed at 23-24 (or even the age of 18-20). Protas was consistently the top of his team in possession stats while Valeri was middling.
What I find interesting is both players, at the very least, were quite well defensively in their earlier careers. Looking at Evolving Wild’s RAMP Player Cards they both excelled defensively, and maybe that’s the secret to becoming a star possession player, is building your game from the backend out.
Another interesting wrinkle in this is that Protas (15 points in 58 games) also outproduced Nichushkin (10 points in 57 games) those years. It is worth noting that in those first three years in the NHL Nichushkin produced pretty well, scoring 64 points in 166 games for .38 points per game. Over his two NHL seasons Protas has produced just 24 points in 91 games (0.26).
Though they are both strong possession players, they achieve that in two different ways. Nichushkin uses speed and smart checks to free up the puck, while Protas mainly uses his reach and positioning to gain possession of the puck. What they both have in common is their brain and how they think about the game. They both seem to know exactly where to be to get the puck or to receive the puck. It’s fun watching them when they don’t have the puck because you can see them just running all the scenarios in their head.
All of that said, Protas probably doesn’t have the offensive ceiling that Nichuskin does, and therefore may not be as impactful. Nichushkin has averaged 70 points per 82 games the last two seasons, and while Protas is a high-end passer, those numbers are probably out of his reach – but if he can carve out some time in the top-six, maybe grab some power play time, he could flirt with the 50-point mark, which is nothing to sneeze at.
The RAPM chart above is from Nichushkin’s first year in Colorado at the age of 24/25 – numbers that are, literally, off the charts, and he did it with bottom six time. Protas will be turning 23 this January, so he’ll be a year younger and will have less experience than Nichushkin did, but it’s hard not to think this could be a huge year for the Belarusian. With a new coach and system, it will be interesting to see how Protas is utilized, what kind of underlying numbers he could put up as a result, and how that could (hopefully) translate to more offense.