“Nostalgia is the most toxic impulse.”
Those are the words of humorist and all-around American treasure John Hodgman, who went on to note that “nostalgia is, at best, unproductive, and at worst, poisonous.”
But while Hodgman was referring to a specific sentimentality, he could have just as easily been referring to the Capitals’ third defensive pairing – at best unproductive, and at worst… yeah.
Here in Washington, the connection between nostalgia and the local hockey team’s band of blueliners has grown particularly strong as the Caps’ need to upgrade on the back end has become ever more apparent… and one of the bigger names on the sellers’ shelves for the upcoming trade deadline is former Capital rearguard Mike Green.
Nostalgia – a term which literally comes from the Greek words for “homecoming” and “pain” – begs for the Caps to bring their former trailblazing star defenseman back for the dying days of the Ovechkin window for winning. We’re putting the band back together. We’re on a mission from god. (Say, what’s Alexander Semin up to these days?)
But is Green’s return to D.C. more than just a rumor? Probably not. Should it be? That’s a more interesting question, and that’s what we here to answer. So, Rob… what do you think?
Rob: As nice as it was to see the old band together for a night at the All-Star Game, let’s resist the impulse to go in for the reunion tour. The Caps are, maybe against expectations, in a buyers’ situation this year and defense is an obvious area of need, so I get it. But Mike Green isn’t the answer, and convincing yourself that he is requires an unprecedented detachment from reality.
For starters, I gave the team relatively favorable reviews in the midseason roundtable but one of my concerns was that this is the same core that has always managed to not come through in big spots. Green used to be part of that core. What glory days are we trying to relive here, exactly?
But even a 1L can get a past history argument stricken from the record so I’ll spare you the trouble and tackle this on the current merits.
Acknowledging the challenges on defense, a righty puck mover that will undoubtedly play on the third pair is nowhere near the top priority for the team. We already saw how Trotz used Green. I’ll grant that this is a D corps that is nowhere near the same caliber as the last time Trotz had Green, but we also know that Barry Trotz is Barry Trotz. He’s not going to elevate Green above Matt Niskanen or John Carlson (nor should he), and he’s not going to play him on his off-hand. So we’re looking at Mike Green, Third-Pair Power-Play Specialist. It sure feels like they’d be going down the same path they went down with Kevin Shattenkirk, if more tepid. Green may not be what Shattenkirk was last year, or what people thought he was, but he’s still going to cost–the flipside of any addition that can’t be ignored.
Green has a $6 million salary, and the Caps are just under the salary cap. There’s no way to get him on this team without taking another player off. This team doesn’t have the depth they’ve had in years past, so losing anyone Detroit would want back would mean another hole in the lineup; losing anyone Detroit wouldn’t want back means paying even more in futures, as would asking Detroit to eat salary. It doesn’t take much time looking at the roster to realize anyone that gets you even halfway to Green’s contract is too valuable to part with if the goal is a long playoff run. Given the third pair righty is a low priority need, why open up a bigger hole to plug the smaller hole?
J.P.: Okay, I’m calling B.S. on you watching the All-Star skills competition.
Anyway, let’s put aside the nostalgia (though there is certainly some value in familiarity) and look at the facts:
Mike Green would make the Caps better, full stop. If he costs you Madison Bowey and a pick [Ed. Note: for more on what Green’s price may be, head on over to Winging it in Motown] and helps you get through the Metro Division in the playoffs in one of this team’s last gasps, that might well be worth the price.
Rob: Mike Green would make the team better, fine, granted. But that’s not really the bar for making trades. Martin Erat made the team better, on paper, but when paired with a coach that didn’t appreciate his game and a far-too-costly return, his addition is nothing but an unmitigated disaster in team history.
And the third pair is unplayable, sure, but if the goal is making the third pair playable I’m sure they can do it for cheaper than Mike Green. They won’t be filling the spot with a guy of Green’s caliber, but given they were never going to maximize Green’s skills the drop-off in talent may not matter much.
If Niskanen or Carlson go down, you can stick a fork in the team with or without Green. He’s not providing insurance for either of those guys and he’s not bailing the team out if someone has to take their minutes; if you want insurance against Orpik getting more minutes, the change you need to make isn’t on the roster, it’s behind the bench. And as for summer insurance, if the Caps had Green in their future plans he wouldn’t have left. I don’t see them paying for him to come in as a rental and then buying him long term, but stranger things have happened.
The East is open, sure, but I fail to see how the Caps are in the better position now, when Tampa is the juggernaut, than the last two years… when the Caps were the juggernaut. Either way, there’s a juggernaut sitting in the other bracket and the Pens looming for another second round showdown. Not to be fatalistic about this, but the team couldn’t get it done with a much more complete roster the last two years, and Green doesn’t even get them to that level. I get that the Metro is largely mediocre, but I’ve never been much of a believer in the “get into the playoffs and anything can happen” mindset. Realistically speaking, this team remains a longshot with or without Green.
Qualitatively, there may be nothing more unanimous in Caps Land than “Green >>>>> Carlson on the Power Play.” But you know I know you know that the quantitative evidence doesn’t bear that out. During Green’s time in DC, we looked at power play production and lo and behold, there wasn’t much of a difference between the two in terms of power play production, certainly nothing to substantiate a vast gap between Carlson and Green.
We already know Trotz doesn’t really value Green, just as he didn’t really value Nate Schmidt and we know that the Red Wings have the leverage here. There are typically other teams that are willing to bid up the price of a righty puck mover, so the team is going to have to pay a meaningful price for him. You posit Bowey and a pick, and while the pick is obviously a wild card, I’d just point out that the Caps have had pretty good success developing young D into quality NHL players. Ignoring the first round picks, Djoos is playing above expectations, Nate Schmidt turned into a guy that can lead his NHL team in minutes, and the transition Orlov has had into top-four defender has been impressive. Does it make sense to keep shipping out the future assets for one more bite at the apple?
All of which leads me to say, if the team is going to make a substantial move, shipping out both substantial assets from the current roster as well as substantial future assets, for a puck moving defender that their Head Coach probably won’t fully utilize, then go whole hog. Get a defender that no coach could leave on the bench. Get a defender that is undoubtedly worth committing to for more than a quarter of a season, a guy that can feasibly step in and be part of the new core of the team. Put your package together with Bowey and picks and whatever else the Caps think they can part with…. and go get Erik Karlsson.
Mike Green is worth it if he helps the team get through the Metro. A big if. Karlsson makes sense as long as the team makes the commitment to keep him around as more than a rental. If we’re talking a drastic remake, give me the latter.
J.P.: Erik Karlsson to D.C. is a pipe dream (for everyone except Joe Beninati, that is – “Karlsson over to Carlson, back to Karlsson…”), but if he’s available, a GM would be derelict in his duties if he didn’t at least kick the tires, so by all means proceed.
But back to reality, the question is whether Mac should try to improve the team for another playoff run (that, incidentally, is wholly independent of past results) and of course he should. Green should be (relatively) affordable and plays a game that is always in demand (heck, even Barry Trotz has seemingly come around on him). So the downside is a terrific third-pair blueliner that makes that pair playable and provides some modicum of insurance on the right side.
No, Mike Green isn’t exactly what this team needs – that would be a left-handed Mike Green. (Or, y’know, Nate Schmidt.) But he would make the team better, possibly at a reasonable price. And it’s not just sentimentality that makes the idea of a reunion somewhat intriguing. Mac could do (and has done) worse.
Now, enough of this nostalgia – let’s go hammer down some cheap beer while listening to Guns N’ Roses and playing NHL94.