Washington Capitals Depth Chart
by J.P. on Sep 13, 2011 11:01 AM EDT
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PrintEven though Caps training camp hasn't yet opened and the start of the season is still a few weeks away, the roster with which the team will enter the 2011-12 campaign has been more or less set for a while now. The competitions that do remain are largely for playing time and role (second-line center, perhaps), though there should be some jockeying among the last few forwards (as the team has more bottom-six front-liners than spots for them), and at the back-end of the blueline, depending on health.
With that in mind, there's been some recent speculation as to the team's potential line combinations and reading of tea leaves as to how players are listed on the training camp roster, all efforts to shed some light on the organization's depth chart. One of the problems with traditional depth charts, however, is that it's difficult to slot certain players. Is Brooks Laich a center or a left wing? On which wing does Troy Brouwer belong? Where does Matt Hendricks belong? And then there's the matter of how depth is determined - by likely line/role? By talent? By likely NHL games played?
So we decided to take a new approach to the depth chart. Essentially, we've listed the players we think have a decent chance of seeing some time in Washington this year (plus Tom Poti) and ranked 'em by position, allowing for overlap, which makes for a nice visualization. It can't be stressed enough that these are not intended to be read as predicting line combinations or roles (i.e. scorers versus checkers), or even to predict who would be recalled in the event of an injury (if a play-making defenseman gets hurt medium-to-long-term, for example, he's likely to be replaced by someone with a similar skillset, whereas a more defensive-minded rearguard will likely be spelled by someone in a more stay-at-home mold). Anyway, the results are after the jump...
First, the forwards (click to enlarge):
As noted above, these aren't line combos - they're rankings by position, with players on the lists of the positions at which they're likely to play a reasonable amount of their even strength time. So Laich, for example, is the team's third-best left wing and third-best center. Does that mean he's a third-liner? Not at all (though third-line center would be our preference). Joel Ward is listed as the fifth left wing and the fourth right wing. Does that mean he's a fourth-line forward, at best? Nope - since there are only five "better" wings on the team (Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Mike Knuble, Brooks Laich and Troy Brouwer), and each can only play one position at a time, Ward is solidly third-line talent for this team... which, coincidentally, happens to suit his actual likely role.
It's worth noting that the jury is still very much out on Mattias Sjogren and Cody Eakin and where they fit in, but until we see more of them against NHL talent, it's hard to place them any higher than the bottom of these lists.
On to the defensemen and goalies (again, click to enlarge):
The Caps' top-six defensemen (and pairings, for that matter) would seem to be set - John Carlson with Karl Alzner, Mike Green with Roman Hamrlik, Jeff Schultz with Dennis Wideman - and a healthy John Erskine has that seventh spot locked down, with the potential to slip into the top-six if someone (coughSchultzcough) slips. But beyond that, who gets playing time will really depend on the player for whom they're substituting and what the coaches are looking for out of the replacement. And, as is the case with the lesser-known-at-the-NHL-level forwards above, there is likely to be some fluidity at the bottom of these charts.
Finally, we're pretty comfortable with that goalie ranking (at last, an easy one).
So that's our take on the depth chart - a bit nontraditional, but hopeful useful and somewhat thought-provoking. We'll revisit the post further down the road, but for now... this is what your 2011-12 Washington Capitals look like in our eyes.
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Fittingly, NHL 12 came out today, and this’ll help me with figuring out my virtual Caps depth chart!
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by Jake Shapiro on Sep 13, 2011 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
This was just an excuse to put up pretty Venn diagrams, wasn’t it? That said, they are useful, informative, and very pretty.
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
Very, very pretty
Expect this idea to be stolen!
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and founder of HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to hockey equipment and accessories.
With the acquisition of Joel Ward, we might actually have some cycling.
J.P.: You might be the king of all geeks here…
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Sep 13, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Excellent visualization and excellent rankings. Thank you.
by Wilderthing on Sep 13, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Question for the commenters, how should versatility be taken into account for roster decision purposes? Is it just a tie-breaker, or does it have inherent value that could justify keeping a (slightly) less competent player?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
If there’s little else to separate 2 players, I think versatility plays a role in a final roster decision.
Yeah, I agree. It’s more than just a tiebreaker – it can make up the difference between two relatively-equally skilled players, especially since the guys we’re likely talking about are back-end players whose roles, impacts and overall skills are relatively minimal to begin with. For example, if Matt Hendricks could only play LW, he might have a hard time sticking. But his versatility sure does help his cause.
To me, generally, everyone on the roster has to be a multi-tasker. AO plays LW and on the PP. Karl Alzner plays LD and PK. Nicklas Backstrom plays C and both special teams. Matt Hendricks can play any forward position on the 4th line and even on the 3rd in a pinch. Anyone who has only one position and doesn’t play either special teams unit has relatively little value in my book (yeah, I’m kinda looking at you, D.J. King – “pugilist” is his primary role, but I don’t really see “playing NHL-caliber LW” as a viable one for him).
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AO plays LW and on the PP. Karl Alzner plays LD and PK.
This venn depth chart idea might extend nicely to the PP (LPoint, RPoint, Crease, Halfboard, etc) and the PK (more straightforward).
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → b a (select) start
Tyler Sloan is terrible at two positions instead of just one! They should have kept him!
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 13, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
After a quick read, nice job overall and I like the presentation style! Definitely a lot of fluidity as mentioned when discussing the roster and potential top of the list call-ups.
I know the list had to cut off somewhere, but worth noting, while depth players, Christian Hanson and Ryan Potulny (plus Aucoin for depth), have seen NHL playing time as recently as last season (yes, I know on non-playoff teams,) and Potulny has over 100 games of NHL experience.
Pre-camp, definitely seems like the bigger challenges will be among the forwards given injuries on D and more defined NHL vs AHL roles to start.
As to goalie depth, Sabourin is #4 on that list, but yes, agree with the order, as presented, not much to debate as of right now about the goalies other than what kind of games started split people expect to see and that is for another discussion.
Thanks, sk8. I could have easily included those three forwards and Sabu on the list, but I think they’re all likely behind the guys listed, and it’s going to take a lot of misfortune for them to see any significant action, IMO, especially given some of the versatility at the bottom of the roster in guys like Hendricks, Beagle and Sjogren.
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Hanson is the one I am most intrigued to see at camp as reports were he had some struggles last season, but Potulny is coming off a very good season and AHL playoffs so that combined with his NHL experience I just think those are 2 to watch along with Beagle for the last roster spot competition against the 2 rookies (who are at a disadvantage due to waivers, want/need for regular playing time, etc.) In the context of FA invite Matt Hendricks last camp, just think it’s worth noting their presence in the lower slot competition.
OT: As it relates to the group A/B/C split to start camp, I noted the new guys, even those most expect to be in the AHL are in groups A/B, while group C is an obvious headed to Hershey to start group and for the most part, players the coaching staff is very familiar with from past seasons.
Knock on wood, but given history with goalies, just a surprise to see you only list 3 goalies :)
I still find it ludicrous that Johansson is ranked ahead of Laich. Hoping don’t make it so, people. There is no measurable stat out there to yet make me believe he is as good as anybody says he is. He got better over the second half, but with the level of his play in the first half, anybody would have. I would love to see him on wing this season, though. 3rd line of MoJo, Sjogren/Eakin and Ward would be a pretty talented third line, giving the Caps a top-notch 4th line of Chimera, Halpern, and Henrdicks. Beagle ahead of Perreault is also questionable at miraculous best. Beagle ahead of any of those guys at C will seem a little far-fetched after this training camp, I venture to guess, although 6R sounds about right.
In terms of playing C, there’s nothing that indicates Laich can do it any better than Mackan. So it’s not really ludicrous. Sure, we have a probable hole at 2C, but that’s nothing new. But if you asked me to pick who is the better C, I’d take Mackan every time. Laich still has a lot to prove in terms of playing C full-time, and if you are talking about a C on a line that is expected to score, Mackan has the better skill set. So how about you provide the “measurable stat” that says Laich is an adequate C? He’s been on the team for how many years now? Been given how many chances? And yet at the end of the day (season) the Caps have continued to look elsewhere for solutions at C. If Laich was able to do that, wouldn’t they have figured it out by now?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Sep 13, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
With regard to the last question, I’ll note that the team has continued to trot AO out on the PP point, in spite of seemingly abundant evidence that he would perform more effectively elsewhere.
As to Laich v. MoJo, though, I’m comfortable with Mojo getting the #2 slot on the depth chart. Laich has one definitive advantage (faceoffs), and he presumably has an advantage in the corners and in front of the net (stronger). But MoJo has boatloads more speed, better hands, and probably a more accurate shot. I feel like he also has the edge in vision and passing.
Laich’s aw-shucks demeanor, orthodoxy with regard to public utterance and his smouldering good looks seem to have gleaned him a higher estimation of his playing skills than he might legitimately deserve, imo. He’s a legitimate role player at the NHL level, but that’s all he is. MoJo looks like he has impact potential. Right now I think it’s probably a pretty even matchup, with either player displaying flaws that limit significant aspects of their game. But I don’t by any means think it’s a no-brainer that Laich is the better player.
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Point one, true, but they’ve also given Laich plenty of chances at 2C, and if the results were there I don’t see any reason they’d have gone away from it. BB loves Laich, and I doubt he’d take him out of a role that a) they need filled and b) he was succeeding at.
I think Mackan has a big edge in passing/playmaking.
I think Laich is a legitimately really good role player. Not just some guy that you fill out a lineup with. But I don’t think he’s an engine of any kind on a line that you need to score.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Agree with you on your first point specifically with regard to the 2C solution and BB’s fondness for Laich. If he was a great solution there, he’d still be there. Hell, we all know Laich isn’t a good fit at 2C.
WRT your last point, I say “legitimate”, you say “really good”…might be we’re in violent agreement on this one.
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Laich’s aw-shucks demeanor, orthodoxy with regard to public utterance and his smouldering good looks seem to have gleaned him a higher estimation of his playing skills than he might legitimately deserve, imo. He’s a legitimate role player at the NHL level, but that’s all he is. MoJo looks like he has impact potential. Right now I think it’s probably a pretty even matchup, with either player displaying flaws that limit significant aspects of their game. But I don’t by any means think it’s a no-brainer that Laich is the better player.
I think it’s a no-brainer that Laich is the better player. Really, just look at GAETAN, Corsi, points, whatever. I don’t think the teammate delta from Laich playing 2L/3L and Marjo playing 1C/2C/3C is enough to make up 21 points, let alone that difference plus the difference in the defensive end.
Johansson was good for a 20 year old. I don’t think he was that great of an NHLer.
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, if we’re arguing Brooks Laich, LW v. Marcus Johannson, C then that’s a horse of a different color. Laich is older, stronger, more experienced, etc., and MoJo has only his rookie year on his resume. That’s a bit of a weighted comparison.
But we’re talking about the #2 vs the #3 spot on the depth chart at C, no? Given MoJo’s edges in speed, hands, puck handling, passing, vision, etc don’t you think MJ90 is reasonably slotted in at #2?
I’ll fall back on F&B’s point here: BL21 got plenty of chances to make 2C his position. It didn’t work out. Doesn’t that support his position at #3?
Patron saint of quality footwear.
I thought that
He’s a legitimate role player at the NHL level, but that’s all he is.
was pretty unfair.
Given MoJo’s edges in speed, hands, puck handling, passing, vision, etc don’t you think MJ90 is reasonably slotted in at #2?
Quite frankly, I think Laich is better there. He doesn’t do a pretty job, but he gets it done. Slightly better rate scoring with slightly less GFON, much better Corsi and GAON rates, and I feel that ability Laich has to get the puck out of the defensive zone reasonably quickly and keep it in the attacking zone (probably more of the latter than the former) is going to help AS28 light it up much more than Marjo as his running mate will.
I think Marjo has a lot of ground to make up, and the LW vs C distinction isn’t enough.
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think Laich gets the job done at 2C. He simply does not have the offensive chops to be a playmaker in the middle of the ice on a scoring line. I’m not even sure we can pull Semin’s effect out of the entire 2nd line Corsi analysis, and I think it’s possible (probable) that Semin is the engine on the second line when it’s working, not any of the Cs he’s played with.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Marjo hasn’t demonstrated that he can use his “offensive chops” to center a scoring line, either, unless I’m missing something. We’ve seen glimpses, but nothing consistent.
Laich was 50.3% Corsi without Semin. He had the highest qualcomp on the team until the last week of the regular season, yet only Mojo (?!), Knuble, and Backstrom, among players with at least 100 events with Laich, had a worse Corsi% with him than without him.
I have a hard time believing he can be a bad 2C when he can be a solid 2LW. He can take care of the basics, he hasn’t looked horrid at center at 3C. It won’t look pretty, but as long as his line outscores the opposition, and more than if Mojo centers that line, right?
Only Gordon and Bradley had lower SFON/60, and no one had a higher SA/60 (min 40 GP, forwards only). I don’t think he’s improved enough to get past Laich.
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, but glimpses are more than we’ve seen from Laich. And MarJo is at an age where you expect improvement, significant improvement. Laich is not. I’m not telling everyone MarJo is the 2C solution this year, or was last year. I’m just saying he’s a better solution than Laich is.
But those numbers don’t separate C from W, correct? The point isn’t that Laich isn’t a good Corsi player, it’s that he’s not a good C on a line you need to generate offense. I stand by that, and it will take more than aggregate Corsi % to move me from that position.
There is a big difference between C and LW. That should be obvious, otherwise there would never be a problem finding a 2C (especially on this team). He hasn’t looked horrid at 3C, but that was a relatively small sample and it’s not a bar I’m willing to set. He has gotten 2C chances a bunch, and every time he has played his way off the 2C.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Right – the real question isn’t whether Laich is a better 2C right now, the question is who’s the best fit at 2C when the playoffs roll around seven months and 82 games from now? That’s a lot of development time for a forward, particularly a young forward like MarJo.
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by Knee high to a duck on Sep 13, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
If that’s the question, my answer is different. I’d rather run with Marjo at 2C and with Laich at 3C.
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I don’t care as much about the regular season as I do about the playoffs. So my eye is totally jaundiced in that direction, as I don’t feel the Caps are in serious danger of missing this year unless they have an injury apocalypse.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 13, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the post season statistics would further support what you originally opined: Laich is a more productive fit at 2C in the playoffs as well.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
by Scoops on Sep 14, 2011 11:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
How could you say that? Has he even been used at 2C in the playoffs?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
What position did you think he was playing while BMo was on Boudreau’s crap list? I’m talking raw production, and in that department there isn’t even a discussion worth having.
You can only argue who made those around him better or not. Still, to me the best way of gauging that is assists and plus/minus. I call over twice as many assists and seven times more effective +/- with oftentimes worse line mates a good 2C candidate for me. Or having 33% more playoff assists. Pick your poison – raw stats and a quick gut check don’t lend to pitting Mackhan over Laich any second line position.
There’s more to be said but I’m sure it’d be ill-received.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
by Scoops on Sep 16, 2011 12:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He mostly played W while BMo was playing like crap. He got some C, and was so good that GMGM thought Eric Belanger would be an upgrade, relegating Laich back to W.
I"m not even sure what your comment about raw production means, but I guess it’s irrelevant since there’s no discussion worth having.
I don’t see Laich making the players around him better. He doesn’t have that kind of creativity with the puck, and he’s not so good singlehandedly that he just draws defenders.
How much of those numbers have to do with who got more time with Semin? I’d say that is going to decide more than the respective talent levels.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
“No discussion worth having” means that when you outproduce another colleague by nearly a factor of 2-to-1 in every category, which is what Laich has done compared to Mackan, there isn’t much of a comparison. Quite frankly I’m surprised so much time is spent on these forums discussing the issues. NO ONE in the league sees Johansson as a legitimate 2C except Caps brass with egg on their face and a lot of bloggers.
A pathetic 40.5% face-off win percentage and 27 measly points do not compare to 48 points and 51.3% effectiveness on the dot no matter how you slice it. No GM would take that skillset and inject it on the second line if they weren’t trying to save face for a draft pick that didn’t pan out as expected.
Have you ever played the Center position? A dearth of the responsibility and measured effectiveness is on how good you are at winning draws. You don’t win the draws, suddenly you’re in the defensive zone. Or if you start there, suddenly you’re getting scored on. Look at Steckel – he made a career of it.
And what greater measure of “making the players around you better” than assisting on their goals? Weather it’s setting up plays, being in the right place at the right time, or other intangibles, 21 is steps ahead of 90 in the regular and post-seasons. I’ll take an “uncreative” assist-producer than a even-keeled player in waiting any day of the week. Bottom line is when you can’t take a face-off, can’t set up plays consistently, and are only an even (and in the playoffs negative) plus/minus player, you don’t belong on the second line, especially not as the anchor.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
Nobody sees Laich as a legit 2C either. Mike Green has out-produced Laich and Johansson, should he be the 2C? Laich’s outproduction doesn’t work in the way you think it does. He produces at wing, which is why he should be at the wing. You can’t simply assume he’d produce the same at C. Because he won’t. So among two less than impressive options, I’m taking the guy that actually has the skill set to be a scoring line C. He’s not there yet, no. But Laich won’t ever be there, IMO. So stop just citing pure production. That’s not the point.
I’ve played all 5 skater positions, and I know that most of the game of hockey is played outside the faceoff dot. Lots of good Cs have had bad FO%. Lots of great FO guys aren’t very good Cs. Exactly, look at Steckel. One trick pony and nobody is ever going to consider him a 2C. So where were you going with that?
So “give the puck to Semin and let him go nuts” is something you consider “making Semin better?”
Did Clark and Zubrus make AO better? Who is the driver and who is the passenger?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
My, you are decidedly testy and omniscient this evening. Why do you have to run to hyperbole to try and prove your opinion? We are in agreement in that neither deserve to be 2C. Ideally a true 2C would be on our roster, but they are hard, and expensive, to come by.
However you seem to struggle with the fact that a large contingent of sports enthusiasts feel that Laich, both in heart and measured metrically, may be higher up on the depth chart in that position than Mackan. If Laich could output at an even slightly lower level than he did the last full season he played as a center, I’d take that as a serviceable 2C substitute until Eakin grows up. Some may not have the benefit of 5-position experience while others do such as you and I, but it still doesn’t warrent emphatic rejectections of their school of thought entirely. It certainly isn’t fair nor balanced.
At least J.P. concedes there is an opposing opinion that can be justified, which makes his differing opinion that much stronger. But that’s all we’re talking about here – opinion: one based on past and present production and one based on hopeful expectation. If anything I respect your vantage point more greatly: the delivery may be off but ultimately your viewpoint takes significantly more faith and carries innate risks… and uncertainty.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
by Scoops on Sep 16, 2011 11:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Where was the hyperbole?
I struggle with your logic, and nothing else.
He never played a full season at C. Because he can’t.
I never brought up “you ain’t never played Center, didja?” You asked, I answered.
If Laich produced at C, that’d be cool. But he produces at W. So he should play W.
If you can address Laich at C, which is what I’ve asked, then maybe there’d be a discussion. But as you said, it’s pointless.
The rest is just jibberish. Twas brillig and the slithy tobes did gire and gibble in the wabes. Shit like that.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Sep 16, 2011 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You say he never has and “can’t” play center, and yet before last season he was an experienced, natural Center who was quite serviceable for many years and categorized as such. Not prolific, but serviceable. He then underwent intensive skate conditioning in Saskatchewan in the off season to prepare him for the Wing position last year. Not something someone just “falls into” because they’re supposedly better at it, but rather they chose to become better through intentional dedication. Kind of like how Crosby took a summer to vastly improve his face-off skills.
I’ve tried to address Laich as C many times, but in your book that never happened (maybe because he didn’t/doesn’t live up to your quality control check, I don’t know). So, unless that changes it renders discussion pointless and I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
by Scoops on Sep 17, 2011 1:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Claiming that Laich was an experienced, natural center until last season is just straight up false, revisionist history. For the last several years he has regularly been 5th or 6th on the team in number of faceoffs taken.
In 2009-10, Laich’s big offensive season, he was 6th in total faceoffs taken. He took fewer faceoffs than another W masquerading as a C – Flash – despite playing in 9 more games. He also took fewer faceoffs per game than AHL call ups like Perreault, Beagle and Aucoin. That’s the sign of a wing who occasionally fills in at center, not a natural center. I don’t care what the letter next to his name says on NHL.com.
Until you acknowledge that Laich spends most of his time and puts up most of his points on the wing you aren’t really addressing his abilities as a center.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 17, 2011 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Why was the skating training done in preparation to play W? Skating is a heavier requirement for Cs than Ws. If he skates well enough to play C, he skates well enough to play W.
I never said that he hasn’t played C, quite the opposite. He’s been tried out at C several times, and never stuck because he’s not a good fit there.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
You seem to be ignoring the fact that Laich gets a large chunk of his points playing the wing on the #1 PP unit, whereas Mackan got very little PP time last year, and almost none of it with the top unit. Context matters.
a large contingent of sports enthusiasts feel that Laich, both in heart and measured metrically, may be higher up on the depth chart in that position than Mackan.
Who is this “large contingent of sports enthusiasts” that think Laich is a better C than Mackan?
NO ONE in the league sees Johansson as a legitimate 2C except Caps brass with egg on their face and a lot of bloggers.
I’d love to know where you are getting this from. I’d also love to know how Eakin, who was drafted the same year as Mackan but has yet to crack the NHL is a viable long term option at 2C but Mackan is already a bust. Seems to me that you aren’t even willing to concede that there is an opposing opinion to your position.
I believe someone wise once said “people in glass houses shouldn’t throw hyperboles”. Or something like that.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 17, 2011 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Right, but glimpses are more than we’ve seen from Laich.
I’ll take Laich’s aggregate numbers—including better rate stats over Marjo’s more inconsistent (?!) play. His four year IPP% average is 70.2% per CnB, while Marjo was an even 60% last season.
And MarJo is at an age where you expect improvement, significant improvement. Laich is not.
Don’t think he’s improved enough, unless his only problem was strength last season. He was deficient at both ends of the ice. At least Laich isn’t deficient defensively.
It’s not like Laich is a hands-of-stone guy, either.
I’m not telling everyone MarJo is the 2C solution this year, or was last year. I’m just saying he’s a better solution than Laich is.
Let me elaborate on this a bit more. I think the difficulty with Semin going into “all me” mode is because he doesn’t have a C he really respects on a consistent basis (he had Fedorov, and then Arnott post-deadline 2011, but no one else). So neither is going to stop Semin from trying to do it all himself.
I’d rather get the better defensive play, digging in the corners and going to the front of the net (theoretically) from Laich than a guy whose skills, frankly, I think would be better served playing with other types of players. Let Marjo actually playmake, not just watch the Semin show.
There is a big difference between C and LW. That should be obvious, otherwise there would never be a problem finding a 2C (especially on this team).
I’d phrase it like “there is a big difference between C and LW, and there is a smaller difference between a guy who can fill in sometimes at C, but really should be LW, and a LW.” Laich falls in the latter camp. Regardless, neither is the borderline-or-better-1C-caliber 2C we’re looking for.
That’s why we haven’t had a 2C. Simply because no one is good enough (and McPhee won’t dole out short-sighted deals to top-end players or make blockbuster trades).
He hasn’t looked horrid at 3C, but that was a relatively small sample and it’s not a bar I’m willing to set. He has gotten 2C chances a bunch, and every time he has played his way off the 2C.
I don’t see this as any worse than Marjo. He never performed as a 2C, but for developmental purposes, he got a free pass for not playing so great (not bad, mind you, but not impressive when not considering age) at 2C or 3C or wherever.
Organization has been really quick to call up MP as well. Of the three, he’s the only one who can really play well against soft minutes. Makes sense to me.
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we’re actually all in agreement on certain things. Many of the reasons you are listing above are why I think Laich should be the 3C. The Caps have the chance to put together a shutdown 3rd line this season, and Laich’s defensive prowess fits perfectly there – in a way that Mackan simply cannot. Let him center Ward and one other winger, and put them out where all that defensive talent can be most effectively used – most likely against the opposing top line.
Meanwhile, Mackan can get sheltered starts on an offensive line with Semin and Brouwer, which would minimize his defensive shortcomings, while allowing the offense that line has to come through.
My mind is all twisted like a peanut.
I don’t see why you’d assume that strength is the only thing Mackan is going to improve on this off-season.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
I don’t, but it’s the one thing I could see him improving so much that it’s not an issue anymore.
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
To many good points to highlight. Well put all around.
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by Scoops on Sep 16, 2011 11:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Laich has been terrible in the past as 2C. He’s done a great job as 2L, but 2C requires skills he lacks. Mackan has been much better as 2C – although, as I said elsewhere, Laich is still the better player. His skills are what make him a great fit for 3C on a shutdown line – good defense, good cycling, and the ability to get/keep possession. Let Mackan play 2C with a lot of offensive starts and that 2nd line can be a solid scoring line.
My mind is all twisted like a peanut.
Maybe my memory is bad here, but when has Laich gotten a legit shot at centering that second line?
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Each of the last two years he has gotten that chance, and BB and GMGM have talked about playing him there (especially last off-season and training camp), but he never stuck.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Meanwhile he did a great job at 3C last Spring. I’m convinced this team is better with Laich in that role. I even think 3C may be more important than 2C on this team. You put Laich at 3C because that’s where you need him most. You put him there because Johansson can’t be trusted there until his faceoffs improve.
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by Gould Old Days on Sep 13, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Why did Marjo stick instead? In no large part because he’s 20. If Laich is 20 instead of 28 he’s playing center. If the Caps had another competent, durable top-6 wing all season (say, Sturm), Laich is playing center. I see his being dropped more for developmental purposes (they haven’t moved MP or Marjo to wing at any level…what does that say about where GMGM and BB want them to play?), for others’ benefit.
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Because Mackan has more ability to create offense than Laich.
Also, who is Mackan “play making” with, if not Semin? Doesn’t seem to make sense to “let Semin do his own thing with Laich and Mackan can be a playmaker.” What line doesn’t involve an Alex and allows Mackan to be a playmaker?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Eakin and Brouwer.
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
(you’ve probably noticed that I’m in favor of Semin-Laich-Ward and think Chimera should be 4th line or sitting)
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you on Chimera, but an Eakin-Mackan-Brouwer line would probably be pretty terrible in a 3rd line role, since they would be pretty terrible defensively.
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I don’t think 3rd line = tough minutes. There are plenty of third lines around the league that feed on soft minutes.
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions
but for the Caps they need to be, to allow the second to feed on the tough minutes. Otherwise you are mostly wasting Semin, plus you have a 3rd that can’t take faceoffs.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
I don’t think it’s necessarily wasting Semin. He’s been a 55% Corsi player in the past. Semin-Laich was just under 55% (they ranked 3rd and 2nd in QoC respectively). Semin-Carlson was north of 58%. Even though Semin posted his lowest g/60 and pts/60 numbers since 07-08, he also posted the best relative plus minus of his career and the best Corsi Rel of his career, numbers on close to, if not on par with or better than Datsyuk or Zetterberg. That’s more important to me.
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the Bible mentions something about wasting Semin…
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True; but I think that had more to do with him not fulfilling his Biblical role as a kinsman redeemer than not utilizing his second line Winger. Either way I agree with you: Semin is a terrible thing to waste.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
by Scoops on Sep 14, 2011 11:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t think Brooksie has had any long term chance at 2C, if memory serves me correctly, In fact, I doubt that he even played C at all during 2009-2010 and only occasionally last year when Backstrom was hurt.
In 2009-2010, Morrison was the 2C for most of the 1st half of the season while the second half of that season was the Fleischmann at 2C experiment.
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Your memory is bad. He’s gotten the chance in each of the last 2 seasons. He never stayed because he can’t manage it.
My mind is all twisted like a peanut.
If you don’t remember regular season games with Laich at 2C, it’s because there aren’t many. they figured out in training camp each year that it was a bad idea
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by Gould Old Days on Sep 13, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, but you’d agree he’s gotten a chance to show he can take that job?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Sure — they’re going to split the squads so there’ll be more than enough 2C time to go around. Above all I want Laich to see a steady diet of center in training camp. We know he can play wing and it won’t be any kind of transition, so better to give him the practice at C.
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Sep 13, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
My how quickly we forget. His most offensively productive season he was rocking the Center position, and that was only the season before last. Moving him to LW, IMHO was one of the worst moves by Caps brass to clip his err… wings. A good idea that should have been quickly abandoned.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
by Scoops on Sep 14, 2011 11:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah. And by “yeah,” I mean, “No, not really.”
His most frequent ES linemates in 2009-10:
23.58% 14 FLEISCHMANN,TOMAS – 28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER
12.85% 9 MORRISON,BRENDAN – 28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER
12.53% 22 KNUBLE,MICHAEL – 9 MORRISON,BRENDAN
6.45% 16 FEHR,ERIC – 9 MORRISON,BRENDAN
6.43% 19 BACKSTROM,NICKLAS – 28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER
5.2% 18 BELANGER,ERIC – 28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER
So of those six, he was center in maybe the first one (but likely splitting time with Flash at C) and definitely a wing in the next five.
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I don’t think that’s what those numbers necessarily indicate; line combinations don’t always lend themselves to positional breakdowns well. Laich was tied in a dead-heat with Flash for 3rd on the Team as far as most face-offs taken as a Cap that season, and did so with 2% more effectiveness than his counterpart.
The only two Caps to have more face-offs than them (who each had 337 or more) were Backstrom and BMo. Keep in mind Belanger didn’t arrive until early March. However, as the year went on BMo’s performance tapered off considerably, his playing time plummeted as did his productivity. This left even more opportunity for Laich to center lines when normally BMo or Flash would have been looked to. By then, though, Flash no longer was a viable 2C solution.
That’s all just to say that It’s not likely Brooks could have racked up that many face-offs as a Winger a majority of the time. Having personally attended 63% of the home games and watched all others, I assure you he was well leveraged as a Center and got the job done reasonably well that season.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
Well enough that they brought in Belanger and didn’t want Laich to 2C down the road.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Perhaps the latter, but that’d be hard to corroborate without a candid discussion with McPhee. I spoke to Laich very briefly before he left that off-season for conditioning and he seemed to be really excited about the role change, which is the only thing that gives me pause in thinking he wasn’t part of that decision making process. The former I thought was for depth in a hopefully long playoff run, but I’m sure there was multiple reasons for it, to include yours as well. Regardless, Belanger didn’t get the job done either and got shipped out quickly, which goes to show just how cursed that position is and how ineffective we have been at addressing it.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
by Scoops on Sep 17, 2011 12:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And those Corsi numbers for Laich are aggregate, right? So it isn’t pulling out the time he spent at C from at W?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Sep 13, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also, wouldn’t it have a lot of time Laich spent with Semin vs. time Mackan spent with Chimera? Just the differences in how the lines were used could account for much of the difference in numbers.
My mind is all twisted like a peanut.
If Laich and Semin were together, and Marjo and Chimera, who was centering 21 and 28?
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
So you think that Brooks Laich is the second-best center on the team? I think the argument could be made.
Not sure I buy Perreault as better than Beagle, though, as an NHL center on a nightly basis.
Btw, kudos on using “ludicrous” and “miraculous best” in your comment – hyperbole is the single greatest thing of all time, isn’t it?
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by J.P. on Sep 13, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
And the difference between MP and Beagle is likely to come down to who gets hurt (as the post notes), so making an absolute call right now is going to be tough.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
And, further to the discussion above, Beagle has a bit more versatility.
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Although I would love to see how MP handles himself on the W. I think it’s fair to suggest MP might have more versatility than he’s shown so far.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Agreed. And he likely has more versatility than Beagle with respect to the lines on which he can play. Not that he can be an effective shutdown-type player, but he could conceivably fill in on a scoring line or play a bit of an energy role, whereas Beagle should never be anything but a checker.
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And because Semin will likely miss at least 10 games this season, it might be interesting to try a line of MP-Johansson-Brouwer or the like.
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You can make an argument to put Laich ahead of Johansson as a center, but I’m not buying. Johansson showed last season/playoffs that he can play 2C – something that Laich has been unable to do. Laich is a better player overall, but not a better center. The only way Laich should stay on the 2nd is as a winger.
My mind is all twisted like a peanut.
True story. And it remains to be seen how well he fares as a checking cneter, expected to face a better pivot than himself. Laich’s skill on defense—for which he justifiably received some acclaim last season as a wing—is going to get tested anew at the 3C.
by bigonetimer on Sep 13, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m with you, F&B, and a couple of others. MarJo is clearly the better choice at 2C. Brooks had many opportunities to lock it down and didn’t….er, can’t. His versatility, as noted elsewhere, makes him more valuable at 3C, the occasional winger, and much PK and PP time.
by Wilderthing on Sep 13, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Just about the coolest depth chart I’ve ever seen.
I was curious about Brouwer’s appearance on the right side (and higher ranking). My understanding is that he’s been used as a LW with a right shot…is there much data that he played RW much in CHI?
Not sure how his ice time broke out there, but, for example, McNally notes of yesterday’s training camp roster release, “Troy Brouwer is listed at right wing, though coach Bruce Boudreau says he is more comfortable on the left side.”
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with some interesting replies in the thread.
by bigonetimer on Sep 13, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Good stuff, and rec’d for using the resources available to you.
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Am I mistaken or is this a reasonably deep team?
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Certainly deep in NHL-caliber talent, but that’s what we said about the defense a couple of years ago, too, when it was deep in 5-8 Ds (ShaMo, Juice, Sloan, etc.). So there’s raw depth, and the Caps have it. But I think there’s still some question as to, for example, scoring depth.
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The only thing that worries me is center. The dropoff there happens far too early for my comfort – especially when you look at 1/2C. Aside from Backstrom, Mackan, and maybe Laich, there’s nothing there.
My mind is all twisted like a peanut.
Perfect example of what I’m talking about – plenty of guys who are “NHL centers” but most of them are bottom-six NHL centers. Look at the nine guys we listed – one 1st-liner, one 2nd/3rd-liner, one 3rd/2nd-liner and a bunch of fourth-liners.
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What bothers me is the list of centers after Hendricks. Beagle is a marginal 4th liner, MP hasn’t shown that he can actually play center in the NHL yet (I think the idea of trying him at wing is a good one BTW), and then there are two untested prospects who both might have 3rd/4th line potential.
My mind is all twisted like a peanut.
Yeah, but I don’t know how many teams go much deeper. That’s 5 NHL centers (including Hendricks), Beagle and Perreault on the fringe, and two unknowns. I’d like the list to have more at the top-end, but the bottom-end doesn’t worry me much (considering the actual minutes we’re talking about here).
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Top 6 depth at both wing and center is a bit lacking. Ovie, Semin, Knuble, Brouwer, and Laich are the only legit top 6 wingers. Backs, Mackan, and maybe Laich are the only legit top 2 centers. If Semin and 1 other top 6 player get hurt, who comes up then? I suppose MP could get a shot, or we could try Chimera again. It’s not the worst problem to have though.
My mind is all twisted like a peanut.
Any team that loses 33% of the Top 6 F is going to struggle some. I can’t think of anyone off the top of my head with the type of depth to overcome that kind of loss without a hiccup.
As you say, when guys go out, people get bumped up. Chimera is one option. Sjogren and Eakin might be able to play a second-line wing slot in a pinch (but might not be able to, either, of course). Then there’s Potulny and Aucoin. All downgrades, to be sure, but hopefully good enough to allow the team to at least tread water.
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The problem is that we don’t know if both Beagle and Perreault are at their full capabilities yet. While Perreault got several chances last year and continued to be a frustrating rabbit-out-of-the-gate, Beagle unexpectedly latched on toward the middle of the season and played whenever he got opportunties. He’s still rounding into a NHL player.
I used to be in the camp concerned about centers, I have now shifted to worrying about secondary winger scoring. Assuming Knuble’s contributions decline, which similar-big-body-winger has the potential score 40 + pts? Laich, Brouwer, Ward, Chimera?
by Wilderthing on Sep 13, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Brouwer can put up 40+ points, Laich can if he’s used there, Ward could put up 30+, and I’d expect Chimera to put up 20-25. That doesn’t really bother me.
My mind is all twisted like a peanut.
I hope you are correct, and probably are with Brouwer and Chimera, but remember Brooks tailed off last year big time and I would not assume Ward is good for 30 at all. If these guys don’t hit your top figures, we may have some scoring issues, particularly if 8-19-28 have another sub par year or gets hurt.
Ward has gotten 34, 35, and 29 the last 3 years with Nashville. The first two were both lower-scoring teams than last year’s Caps. 30, or at least close to it, certainly seems reasonable – especially if he is on a line with Laich. I expect Laich to have fewer points than previous years, but Ward-Laich-Chimera would be a better 3rd than the Caps have had in recent years.
My mind is all twisted like a peanut.
Btw, if Sloan was still here, these graphics would be particularly awesome, because I’d have had to have overlapped the D’s with the F’s.
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by J.P. on Sep 13, 2011 12:02 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
But Green’s a wingah!
My mind is all twisted like a peanut.
by timmyv38 on Sep 13, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Caps have lost some important depth versus this time last year:
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by Gould Old Days on Sep 13, 2011 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 22 recs
VennDiagrams for NHL Depth Charts...
Oooooooh….Pretty circles!
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So are the initial indications that Vokoun will be the #1?
Or is it still an open competition?
by RossingtonCollins on Sep 13, 2011 2:55 PM EDT reply actions
I agree in general, but given how Boudreau and company deal with the goalies, I’d say Vokoun is #1 for 1 game, opening night, if he’s healthy :)
Nah. He’s got a much longer leash than anyone’s had here since Kolzig (and for good reason).
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Sorry a couple of days late just getting back online this evening. I agree he’s #1, I disagree that he has a long leash; goalies just don’t have long leashes with Boudreau when Boudreau has other options.
I never said long. I said longer. Hopefully we never find out…
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There’s a potential optimization algorithm here — just try to minimize the value if you add up everyone’s depth chart position. I think the best possible lineup using that algorithm is:
Ovechkin (1) – Backstrom (1) – Knuble (2)
Semin (2) – Johansson (2) – Brouwer (3)
Laich (3) – Halpern (4) – Ward (4)
Chimera (6) – Hendricks (5) – Beagle (6)
Alzner (1) – Green (1)
Hamrlik (2) – Carlson (2)
Schultz (3) – Wideman (3)
Vokoun (1)
It adds up to 52. Can anyone beat that?
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
That’s intereseting, but it, of course, fails to recognize that there the drop-offs between players isn’t uniform. On the RW, for example, Semin→Knuble is a lot larger drop than Knuble→Brouwer.
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Incorporating drop-off would require adding another element (some mathematical representation of delta in “targeted aptitude”) to the vector and doing a directed graph/tree search.
*Targeted aptitude — the absolute ability of that player to perform in the desired position. So perhaps Ovi gets 100 in 1L, 100 in 2L, 50 in 3L, and 25 in 4L, while Semin is 80 in 1L, 100 in 2L, 50 in 3L, and 0 in 4L. That way you’re comparing apples to apples as much as possible, and not getting Semin as the 4L because his delta with Beagle is huge.
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by Alz Well That Ends Well on Sep 13, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Umm…won’t we get the same if we simply switch around the players?
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by red army line on Sep 13, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Try it. You’re right for the defensemen, but in many cases with the forwards the answer is no
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by Gould Old Days on Sep 13, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Not if the players have different values for different positions. You could also weight by expected ice-time for each game.
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by Knee high to a duck on Sep 13, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
It just goes to show…it’s not a matter of “if,” but a matter of “Venn.”
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by ThePeerless on Sep 13, 2011 7:01 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Permission to use an idea similar to this? Although, I’m not sure who will play LD and RD on our team considering we have about 5 defensemen who shoot left.
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Yeah, by all means (just be sure to let everyone know where you got it).
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