Pick 'Em: Eric Fehr or Tomas Fleischmann as Trade Bait
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 12:30 PM EST
in Pick 'Ems
229 comments
Don't look now, but the NHL's trade deadline - March 3rd - is right around the corner, and there's a pretty good chance the Caps will be looking to make a move. After all, they are a very good team with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations, they have enough cap space to afford just about anyone they might want, they have a decently stocked farm system, and George McPhee has shown a willingness to make moves he thinks will improve the team, even if it means shaking up the status quo.
Of course, as a general rule acquiring an asset of value means giving up an asset of value. Prospects and draft picks are nice, but in an era when the vast majority of teams are in competition for a playoff spot, fans and management often expect quick results, and cost-controlled players are a premium, the reality is the Capitals might have to give up a young player with some NHL experience to get the player they want in return. The question then becomes, "Who on the Capitals roster is good enough to have value in a trade, but not indispensable to the current team?" The answer: Eric Fehr and Tomas Fleischmann.
As for who to move in a situation where an opposing general manager is willing to take either for an identical return, well, that's a tougher question. To start out, let's take a look at each player's respective stat line:
[Ed. note: For the purposes of this comparison, we used an adjusted version of Goals Versus Threshold, which does not take in to account shootout performance. Unless otherwise noted, all 'per sixty' statistics refer to five-on-five play. Rounding errors may exist in per sixty' statistics.]
Statistically speaking, the debate really isn't all that close: Fehr trumps Fleischmann in every non-powerplay category other than goals versus threshold, a number that is higher for Fleischmann because it does not take ice time in to consideration.
Of course, statistics don't tell the whole story. The case can be made that Fleischmann's skill set - he is a better skater, stickhandler, and passer than Fehr - are better fits for the Capitals system, and that his power play production is a valuable compliment to the Young Guns. Fleischmann also has a slight endge on the versatility front because, although his play at the position at the NHL level had mixed results, he is at least a viable option at the center position, and in terms of durability, having not endured the kind of early-career injury trouble Fehr has. As for Fehr, one could argue his size, defensive acumen, forechecking skill and effort, and net presence are attributes the Capitals have been lacking in the last couple of seasons and are therefore more valuable to the team.
Neither has a major advantage when it comes to contract status at this point - Fleischmann's slated to make $169,041 for the rest of this season; Fehr, $179,942. Both are restricted free agents at the season's end. The raw numbers say Flash is likely command a higher salary moving forward, but of course this is always subject to change if Fehr starts getting more minutes and putting up more impressive numbers.
Finally, Bruce Boudreau's reaction deserves some discussion. Anyone following the Caps over the last couple of seasons is well aware Gabby holds Fleischmann in high esteem, and may have noted that Fehr, despite his success both this season and last season, struggles to get ice time. Of course, it's McPhee, not Bruce Boudreau, who makes the team's personnel decisions, and it's Boudreau's job to win with the players McPhee gives him. That said, it's still probably an issue that warrants consideration, at least in this forum of discussion.
All that taken in to account, if you were in the position to pull the trigger on a trade that could put the Capitals over the top this season, who would you send out the door?
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Not a Fehr fanboi
But I think Fleischman’s trade value is greater and that, he is not worth the contract he’ll command next season if he can’t play center and play it well, long term.
Russian Machine very rarely breaks. Oh and f**k Brooks Orpik.
I always rag on Flash and talk up Fehr, but I think your point is definitely the biggest reason why Flash is better trade bait. Considering his raw numbers and usage, I have to think he’s a more valuable commodity in the eyes of the other GMs.
That’s a case for moving Fehr in this scenario, isn’t it?
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
If we think they are comparable players, but the other GMs think Flash is much better, we would get more in return for Flash than with Fehr. That’s what I was getting at, if I didn’t say it correctly.
But the scenario is “who to move in a situation where an opposing general manager is willing to take either for an identical return”, so it makes sense to move the guy with less value (Fehr) and hold the guy with more value (Fleischmann) so you can deal him for something more.
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
i think fehr is better for a playoff push than flash is. Big rig, goes to the net, can hold his own physically. but flash seems to have more value than fehr. thus, the better player is fehr, but oddly flash would bring more return. thus, flash is the better option to move.
Are people reading or just commenting?
As for who to move in a situation where an opposing general manager is willing to take either for an identical return, well, that’s a tougher question.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Sorry Professor Semantics.
My answer is still Flash. :-)
Russian Machine very rarely breaks. Oh and f**k Brooks Orpik.
It’s not semantics, it’s removing variables to make for a valid comparison.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Feb 26, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I get the idea, but it’s also hard to fathom most GMs saying either/or to that combo.
Russian Machine very rarely breaks. Oh and f**k Brooks Orpik.
Harry Sinden said “Keep Kolzig or Carey – your choice.” Not so hard to fathom.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Or any time a “player to be named later” deal is struck.
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, I think Poile gave Sinden the choice on that. Point remains that one NHL GM valued the two equally enough to just let the other guy pick.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
or he knew which player the other GM would pick, and suckered him into it…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 27, 2010 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
doesn’t it kind of Depend on what’s coming back? A 2C, the bye bye flash. A rugged veteran winger then bye bye Fehr. A “stay at home” D then it gets tougher….
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Feb 26, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
That’s fair, but I think the apt thing to do is consider all else being equal – including the ramifications of the deal position-wise.
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
I suspect this is really the question. The trading partner is going to be the determining factor in this, because I think — for the descriptions DMG provides — the club would be willing to part with either. It’s a matter of which return the Caps value more, not which Caps player. If the Caps get an offer for Dan Hamhius, and David Poile asks for Eric Fehr versus an offer for Marek Zidlicky, and the Wild wants Fleischmann, then the valuation is in the return — which player the Caps want more, not are more willing to give up.
If you've read this far...seek help.
I think you’re getting confusion here because the idea of GMs making a trade for identical return doesn’t relate to much in the real world since nobody would (intentionally) do such a thing.
I didn’t get what that meant until you highlighted that people aren’t answering the question. Upon further review… I get it now. Still a little awkward in my head, and perhaps others as well.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on Feb 26, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
That’s what I was thinking. A team like Nashville could look at Fehr v. Flash and say that Fehr is more responsible defensively, which is important to their style of play.
Yes, but Flash brings something that they desperately need – scoring. Fehr scores, but not as much as Fleischmann.
No Alex, no ratings. Know Alex, know ratings.
You’re right. I was looking at Val O and Val D when I stated that, my bad.
No Alex, no ratings. Know Alex, know ratings.
Either is in play if the deal is right. I’m pretty sure teams aren’t out there looking to clean up on ‘players that are more responsible defensively’ though. They want production, and Flash has somewhat delivered that. Fehr is still a guy with potential.
Russian Machine very rarely breaks. Oh and f**k Brooks Orpik.
My point was Fehr would probably fit into their system better as they play more of a defense first style. Between a guy that could score and play defense, and a guy that could just score, I would think they’d want the one that could play defense too.
If it's Nashville...
..trade Fehr. Done. He’s from Alberta and likes country music. Flash, presumably, does not. Easy.
by bilspacecadet on Feb 26, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
I like the simple logic of this train.
by DrinkingPartner on Feb 26, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
And the difference between Alberta and Manitoba is…..?
by bilspacecadet on Feb 26, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
can you imagine
This team with Getzlaf on it????
On the Forecheck-where Patric Hornqvist is never underappreciated.
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by Chris Burton on Feb 26, 2010 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
If Getzlaf’s drafted, a lot of things probably go differently, though.
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
probably
Still, the possibility of Getzlaf with AO…
Man, what a draft 2003 was. The Preds passed on Getzlaf, too… :(
On the Forecheck-where Patric Hornqvist is never underappreciated.
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by Chris Burton on Feb 26, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
wow
Just looking at that draft on Wiki, Jaroslav Halak was drafted in the NINTH round, Tobias Enstrom in the eighth, Joe Pavelski seventh round.
On the Forecheck-where Patric Hornqvist is never underappreciated.
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by Chris Burton on Feb 26, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Feb 26, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
Funny thing about that?
Out of all the first rounders in that draft, Eric Fehr is behind 24 other guys in terms of number of NHL games played. Only Shawn Belle, Brian Boyle, Anthony Stewart, and the huge specimen himself, Hugh Jessiman, have played fewer.
And Hugh Jessiman holds a special place in my heart, as he went to college with me. And he tore it up in the ECAC that first season. After that? Not so much.
GUTEN TAAAAAAAAAAAAG!
Obviously, no Nicklas Backstrom (can’t see that they would have been quite bad enough to draft fourth in 2006 had Getzlaf played for the Caps that year; maybe they end up with Derick Brassard or Kyle Okposo). Perhaps not bad enough to draft fifth the next year when Karl Alzner was taken (maybe they end up with a Keaton Ellerby or Ryan McDonagh)
If you've read this far...seek help.
Still, leaves you with Getzlaf/Ovechkin/Semin/Green/Brassard (who would be incredible in this system).
On the Forecheck-where Patric Hornqvist is never underappreciated.
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by Chris Burton on Feb 26, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
The numbers (except for the PP, on which the QualTeam goes a long way towards explaining the difference) all say Fehr, except for one:
Fleischmann: 199
Fehr: 135
Those numbers? Games played over the past three seasons. And the only thing that keeps this from being a no-brainer to me is the fact that part of me says, “Trade Fehr while he’s healthy – because he may not be for too long.”
Still, leaning “Trade Flash” very heavily.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Ideally, the Capitals deal Flash for Hamuis then replace him with a center via another trade. If you recall, Steckel was playing 3C last we saw and it wasn’t pretty.
I gotta lean towards trading Flash if I have to deal one. Nothing against him at all, but Flash is the type of player we’ve got plenty of, and Fehr’s defensive responsibility is better, which is something that in a team-defense system like Boudreau’s cannot be overlooked.
No Alex, no ratings. Know Alex, know ratings.
by gotsparkly on Feb 26, 2010 12:45 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I would think the Caps have to trade the one that their trading partner are most interested in, if they decide to make a deadline trade.
In that case, I would imagine Flash would be the more sought after option. However, given Fehr’s recently development of staying healthy and scoring goals in fairly limited minutes, everyone’s looking for that big body goal scoring threat so perhaps he’d be favored by an opposing GM.
Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.
I would think the Caps have to trade the one that their trading partner are most interested in, if they decide to make a deadline trade.
The scenario here, though, is “who to move in a situation where an opposing general manager is willing to take either for an identical return”. Otherwise it’s not apples to apples and it’s not fair to pick one over the other.
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
Right. And the point of this whole discussion is the hypothetical in which a deal is set and the other GM tells George, “I don’t care – throw in Flash or Fehr… you’re choice, they’re worth the same to me.” In that situation, who would you rather he move?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Understand that, I don’t see a GM wanting to make a trade without targeting who he wants as the centerpiece of the return.
If all thngs are equal, and I’m an NHL GM, I’d ask McPhee that question and then demand the guy he ISN’T willing to give up.
Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.
by Hooks Orpik on Feb 26, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
This guy agrees with your logic...
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means
Russian Machine very rarely breaks. Oh and f**k Brooks Orpik.
by macvechkin on Feb 26, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You only think I guessed wrong! That’s what’s so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders – The most famous of which is “never get involved in a land war in Asia” – but only slightly less well-known is this: “Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line”
Let's go Caps!
If all thngs are equal, and I’m an NHL GM, I’d ask McPhee that question and then demand the guy he ISN’T willing to give up.
So…it’d go like this?
GMGM: Seems like we have a deal here, just let me know if you want Fleischmann or Fehr and I’ll finish the paperwork
HO: Who do you want to give up.
GMGM: I don’t really care, whichever you want.
HO: But who do you want?
GMGM: I want your guy. That’s why we’re talking. Dude, pick one.
HO: You pick one!
GMGM: Um, okay. Fehr.
HO: I want Fleischmann!
GMGM: [facepalm]
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
In keeping with the theme:
GMGM: Give us the gate key.
Hooks: I have no gate key.
Gabby: Mr. Nasty, tear his arms off.
Hooks: Oh, you mean this gate key.
Let's go Caps!
There’s no way in hell GMGM tips his hand. My guess is that he’d answer “Giroux.”
by DrinkingPartner on Feb 26, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
then they both realize, “WE COULDA HAD GETZLAF!”
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Feb 26, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And that’s why you don’t trust numbers…
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 26, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
I almost wish they’d put him on the first line so he could either prove or disprove (I suspect) that line of thinking.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
He’s been on the first line now and again. It hasn’t worked out well.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 27, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
If I had wheels, I’d be a wagon.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
by D'ohboy on Feb 26, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What is so odd or unreasonable is it to make fair comparisons? We do it all the time, case in point, this thread is all based on comparing two guys that get different amounts of playing time.
Go ahead and take a look at Fehr vs Getzlaf. You’d be surprised at how they look head to head.
Actually, I have the excel spreadsheet right here.
It was made at 53 (Cpaitals 53rd game) game mark in the season. I made this on every player getting 20 minutes a game and playing 53 games.
Ovi 37G 43A +35
Semin 32G 36A +25
Knuble 25G 22A +19
Flash 26G 30A +8
Backstrom 21G 36A +23
Laich 16G 24A +8
Chimera 19G 38A +25
Morrison 14G 25A +22
Fehr 29G 29A +37
Getzlaf 12G 34A -2
Perry 17G 28A -3
08-09 Getzlaf had 25G, 66A and 91pts. I just don’t see that production from Fehr no matter who is on the line with him.
But that’s just my opinion.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on Feb 26, 2010 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
You’d probably say that about lots of guys who haven’t been given the chance yet. Given the 2 players and circumstances and both organizations, Getzlaf has been given much more freedom to showcase his skills. It also didn’t help Fehr by losing a year with a back injury.
If ifs and buts were candy and nuts..
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Then we’d all be diabetic.
But what’s your point, jordan?
by DrinkingPartner on Feb 26, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t see the point in arguing that Fehr could be as good as Getzlaf given the ice time and linemates, but then qualifying it with stuff like his injury history and standing among the coaching staff.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
No has made that argument Jordan, all I said that there stats are comparable, if you use the same metric as Japers did with Flash and Fehr.
Everything else is speculation, but speculation goes both ways. I speculate that Fehr’s numbers would look pretty good getting 20 minutes per game and playing with Backstrom and you speculate that they wouldn’t.
Sounds fine to me.
I guess a somewhat okay comparison would be a Tomas Holmstrom to Flash. While Flash could get 20g a year by playing a skill game, Holmstrom would by playing a less-skilled, more dirty-work game. That skill game I feel has the higher upside.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 27, 2010 5:08 AM EST up reply actions
Getzlaf is a better skater, better shooter, and better passer. Plus he is the target of every team’s top D instead of a 3rd liner on an offensively stacked team. I don’t see any way that Fehr matches Getzlaf’s production, no matter how much ice he gets.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Feb 26, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
to finish your thought… Fehr would have better numbers (be better?) than Getzlaf?
That’s a TOUGH sell in my book.
I think you put Getzlaf and Semin, with any of our NHL centers (even MP) and you have a DOMINANT line. I can’t even suggest that about Fehr with a straight face.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on Feb 26, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Getzlaf and Fehr are impossible to compare. One is a legitimate franchise center who carries his team, the other is a 3rd line grinder.
Just because Fehr’s numbers “project” close to Getzlaf’s given the playing time doesn’t mean that would happen, and Fehr isn’t going to get that PT because he’s nowhere near the player Getzlaf is.
On the Forecheck-where Patric Hornqvist is never underappreciated.
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by Chris Burton on Feb 26, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
The reason why Fehr is on the 3rd line is not because he is a grinder. He is a scorer who is being asked to play a grinder/scorer role.
Why? Because we have Semin and Knuble in front of him. That’s the reason why.
When Semin and Knuble were out, Fehr was on the 2nd line and was productive.
Last year, Fehr had a goal scoring streak. He was on the 2nd line during a good portion of that streak (with both Backstrom and Fedorov as center). He also had scored on the 3nd line with Steckel and Nyls. (Flash was on his line for almost all of those occasions.)
It seems that Fehr has his best productivity when on the 2nd line.
Rocking the Red since 1975
I didn’t say one was better than the other, I only said that the numbers are close. Getzlaf also plays with Perry and Ryan or Selanne.
Not exactly Chimera and B.Mo.
by JSchon on Feb 26, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yeah, dummy moment for me. Should be Semin, Getzlaf and any other winger.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on Feb 26, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
As do Kyle Wilson's...
A point a game throughout his entire NHL career
…but somehow I don’t think Ducks boards are teeming with complaints of, "We coulda had Kyle WIlson!
by bilspacecadet on Feb 26, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
They aren’t smart enough to know what they could have had.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 26, 2010 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for keeping it real, Hooks – can’t just look at the Caps’ needs. That said, that big body, forechecking mojo is very marketable.
by S h a g g y on Feb 26, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
Uh, sure you can. The guy on the other side isn’t the one doing the targetting – he’s the seller. He wants something for a guy who’s gonna be a UFA in July.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
And they’re getting 2nd round picks for Dominc Moore! And maybe soon a 1st for Whitney or Ponikarovsky…
Sellers have a lot of leverage since the supply is low. I see a GM having an idea of who he wants, not just leaving it up to GMGM on which player gets included.
Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.
by Hooks Orpik on Feb 26, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Of course. But that’s. Not. This. Question.
Honestly, my face and my palm are both sore already from these comments.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Feb 26, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Right, but we’re not drafting a “Day in the Life of George McPhee” script that we’re looking to make super realistic. We’re evaluating which guy has more value to the Capitals by framing the decision making process as a trade in which giving up either is acceptable.
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
I think we get JP’s premise just fine – I think some of the remarks are simply bringing up the notion that it aint always that easy.
But no one’s saying it’s that easy. We’re asking who you’d rather give up and thus implicitly who you want to keep. It’s not designed to emulate being an NHL general manager, it’s designed to spur discussion about who’s more valuable to the Capitals.
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
I voted Fehr, but only because he would get better ice time somewhere else vs. here in DC. The kid deserves a shot to be a top-6 forward, the problem is that there is a logjam here in DC at that position, with Flash being one of them.
As for which player I’d trade… if there was any player I could trade to guarantee me a Stanley Cup, he’s gone…doesn’t matter who he is. Ask the Calgary Flames who traded Brett Hull in 1988 to St. Louis (along with a couple of warm bodies). In exchange they got Doug Gilmour and Rick Wamsley. Without Wamsley, the Flames likely would have had to play Mike Vernon into the ground and would probably not have won the Cup in 1989 (And yes, Gilmour was a tremendous asset too).
We shall see. I am sure there’ll be a deal announced Monday or Tuesday.
Let's go Caps!
I voted Fehr, but only because he would get better ice time somewhere else vs. here in DC. The kid deserves a shot to be a top-6 forward, the problem is that there is a logjam here in DC at that position, with Flash being one of them.
But if you’re the GM, you can move Flash and eliminate that log-jam.
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
Not really, unles Fehr can play center (he can’t). And it depends on what I get back. If the Caps bring in a second line center, then I can send Flash…
Personally, I’m hoping the Caps can find a deal where they don’t move any of the top 9 forwards…
Let's go Caps!
Agreed with this. Unless Flash is going out for a center, any trade of him is dumb.
Deutschland - das ist alles.
And I’d say that believing that Flash is going to be an adequate C for us in the playoffs is dumb. I would in no way require Flash to bring a C back in return. He’s not really a C now, so if we are looking for a C it’ll be through another trade anyway. If you can move Flash to make the team better, you do it, regardless of position coming back.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 27, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
I worry about it. Yeah, he’s not your best center, but he’s SERVICABLE, and we don’t have anyone else who would do better. Actually, the drop off is pretty severe.
Deutschland - das ist alles.
Serviceable? What does that even mean? “Not that good but I’ll live with it”? He wasn’t good enough to beat out Petr Cajanek for C on the CZE team. He wasn’t good enough for BB to keep him at C. He’s been awful at face offs and he’s still not great defensively. Flash is a serviceable C like Laich is a serviceable C and D. Sure, you can do it in a pinch, but I don’t want to go into a 7 game series expecting that from either of them.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 27, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t want to go into it, but I would rather go into a series with Flash there than Morrison or Steckel.
Deutschland - das ist alles.
Why not Laich? He’s got a 50% in the dot and can’t they theoretically switch after the draw, him and Flash?
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 28, 2010 2:06 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t like doing the “switch defensive responsibilities after the draw” strategy. A lot of defensive responsibilities start immediately when the puck drops and trying to switch guys is asking for a breakdown. I also don’t like Laich’s skating or D to be a C long term.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 28, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
He makes the argument that I was going to make. It seems pretty clear to us that Fehr is a player with great potential who’d be putting up some pretty nice numbers if he could get more ice time. If Bruce is never going to give it to him, for whatever reason, let him get it somewhere else and open up that roster spot. We have forwards to spare at the third and fourth line level, right?
"The Caps fan doesn't say, 'is the glass half full' or 'is the glass half empty'. He wonders when the glass is going to spill."
We are thin at RW. Knuble, Semin, Fehr, Bradley are the NHL’ers. Then we have Bouchard, Bourque, A.Gordon and then Kugryshev.
However at LW we have Ovechkin, Flash, Laich, Chimera, B.Gordon, Osala, Rovere.
The difference is that Semin and Knuble are signed for only one more year and there is distinct possibility that neither could be here after the 2010/11 season.
I believe we deepest at G, D, C, LW then RW based on projecting 3 years down the road.
by JSchon on Feb 26, 2010 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i move eric fehr…no doubt.
sometimes i really like him as a player…but he seems to be too fragile…i mean honestly…how can you break both shoulders??? he seems softer than i’d like for his size.
i traded fehr and alzner for volchenkov in nhl 10.
hahahaha
he seems softer than i’d like for his size.
What’s size got to do with being soft? Are you angry at Jeff Schultz because he’s too big not to hit people? I just don’t understand the connection at all.
He plays extremely well along the boards, not something you can do if you’re soft at any size.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 26, 2010 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
My instincts say Fehr is a better fit for playoff hockey, but Fehr has 1 point in 14 career playoff games, and got hurt against the Pens early in that series last year. Granted he wasn’t on the ice a ton but still
Flash had a couple of memorable goals last year in the playoffs, but only produced 4 points in 14 games. If memory serves, Flash was scratched and not injured after game 2 in the Flyers series.
I keep leaning more towards keeping Fehr and trading Flash but haven’t voted yet.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
Playing with torn labrums in both shoulders may have an adverse affect on one’s ability to contribute. The injuries may be a concern with Fehr but I’m not ready to write him off as a perpetual injury waiting to happen just yet. He’s still young.
other stats
fehr born 9/7/85
flash born 5/16/84
i would have guess fehr to be older but he is actually 16 months younger than flash.
fehr is a RW, who would replace him on the right side (beagle/aucoin) vs. who takes flash’s spot on LW (oskar, giroux)? this assumes that we trade for a dman and not a forward to take either’s spot.
i’d say keep flash because BB is high on him and BB has been pretty good at picking out players to play his system. also, now that flash has bulked up i’ve seen a ton of improvment from the guy who got pushed around in the playoffs a few years ago. add to that his ability to play center in a pinch and it adds up to him.
however, in the end you have to consider who will do better for you in the playoffs. in that regard, the edge also goes to flash based upon last years playoffs but how much did fehr’s injury affect him last year….
only think i’m certain of is i’m not an NHL GM..
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
Who would I move? Flash.
Who could I get more in a deal? Fehr. Ideally, he’d take over for Knuble for he doesn’t get re-signed (or Laich takes Knuble’s role), and the organization is lacking in decent scoring forwards who have a little size.
"I guarantee that we'll beat the Canadians." Ryan Kesler, 8/7/09
*more value for. Damn, I’m off.
"I guarantee that we'll beat the Canadians." Ryan Kesler, 8/7/09
by Bald Pollack on Feb 26, 2010 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
I was going to say Fehr and then there is that picture JP selected – it just exudes team toughness – so then I was thinking Flash. But then I was thinking I really don’t care which one goes if we’re getting back a really good dman so I picked Fehr.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
I’d move Fehr. Flash has more versatility and upside—I don’t think he’s reached the height of his abilities yet, while Fehr has already peaked.
"My face is my mask."
What makes you say that? Fehr’s younger, had his development stunted by injury, and has a skill set that takes longer to develop.
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
Plus, Fehr’s improved every year he’s been in the league. He’s already achieved career highs in goals and points this year, and he’s done that all while playing bottom 6 minutes.
Let me tell you a little story about a guy named Cam Neely…
GUTEN TAAAAAAAAAAAAG!
Last year was the first in which Fehr has played over 23 games in the NHL. His production has improved markedly this season. He is 24 years old.
He hasn’t peaked.
by Kolzilla on Feb 26, 2010 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You could say many of the same things about Flash, except flash is still 2 goals away from a career high
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Feb 26, 2010 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
Except I don’t think that Flash has peaked. Plus, Flash’s totals this season benefited from getting more PP time and some top-6 forward time with Ovi and/or Semin being out.
GUTEN TAAAAAAAAAAAAG!
Exactly. And with BMo struggling at C, it’s nice to see Flash can perform on the dot as well.
"My face is my mask."
You must have stopped watching in January.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 26, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
Indeed. I think Flash’s early success was more a factor of being an unknown in the faceoff circle. Opposing teams really rely on video to sniff out a guy’s tendencies in faceoffs and with Flash early on, they had nothing to work with. Once he got 10-15 games under his belt, and they had video on him, I bet his weaknesses became apparent and that’s why other centers started dominating him.
And he really struggled on the road where he had to set up first.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 26, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
I think Flash has more upside as well, but his skillset isn’t necessarily what’s lacking from the Capitals. A CONSISTENT Fleischmann, which could happen, but is unlikely to happen immediately, is a first line talent. When he’s on, the scoring chances he creates are crazy good. When he’s off, though, he’s off. Fehr’s development could have been stunted by the injuries, and I think have lowered his ceiling. I think what he could become would be more helpful to our team than Flash, but I also think that if Backstrom gets hurt AND you’ve moved Flash, the season is over, as we have no one to play first line center. Flash could fill in, and the line would suffer some, but if you’ve moved him without picking up a LEGIT center, you’re done.
Deutschland - das ist alles.
If Backstrom gets hurt we are toast. There’s no salvation scenario, and it certainly wouldn’t involve Flash at 1C. That’s just not realistic. That’s Imagination Land.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 27, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
The return is the same in this situation, set up that way so making the choice is apples to apples.
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
If you can get the same return for either then, imo, you move Flash. Aside from all the good points DMG brought up, there are a couple others worth considering. First, age. Fehr is 16 months younger than Flash. Considering the way Eric is developing, that’s not a small consideration. The second factor is past performance. At Brandon, Hershey and now with the Caps, Fehr has shown incredible jumps in performance from his second full season to his third. At Brandon, he scored 26 goals in his second season and then jumped to 50 in his third. At Hershey, he scored 25 in his first full season and then was on pace to almost double that before he was called up to the Caps. Flash, while he has had improvement from year to year, has never shown that ability to make as big a leap from his second to third full season at any level. Bottom line, Fehr’s younger, has better size and based on past performance could be on the brink of a big breakout. I think Flash will continue to improve, but I’m afraid what we’re seeing is pretty much what he’s going to be. All things being equal, move Flash and keep Fehr.
by b.orr4 on Feb 26, 2010 1:28 PM EST reply actions 7 recs
Rec’d for going with the hypo as presented (and bringing a strong argument).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Great stuff on the 2nd-3rd year jump. It could be a coincidence, or it could be that it just takes Fehr a couple years to figure out how to translate his game/skill set to a new, better league. I’d like to see how his numbers jump if he was getting ice with prime offensive teammates.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 26, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
I think Flash will continue to improve, but I’m afraid what we’re seeing is pretty much what he’s going to be.
Exactly sums up my thoughts. To me, the veneer of “new” has worn off on Flash and it is hard for me to imagine him making a jump to a level of play beyond where he is now. With Fehr, I can’t shake the “he’s been robbed” sentiment with the injuries, and thus there still is a little bit of unknown that surrounds his game. Maybe he is ready to break out, maybe not. But I’d keep him till he’s played 200 and, hopefully, had a little better shot at the top 6 minutes his stats warrant.
by ThreePingPost on Feb 26, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
I Don't Rec
I think the idea that past is prologue when you jump to the NHL is flawed. See Giroux, Alexandre.
Just because in the past you made a big adjustment at year 2, or 3 or whatever, does not mean you will do the same in the NHL. Further, perhaps somebody who makes steady progress is more likely to continue to do so in the NHL. It’s completely unknown.
BTW, my title is not meant to sound strident… just snarkish
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on Feb 26, 2010 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
Except, you’re already starting to see that jump in production this year from .19 goals per game last year to .29 gpg this year. By my rudimentary math that comes to more than a 50% improvement. And don’t forget, Fehr came back early from double shoulder surgery and spent the first month just getting back in shape and regaining his strength.
I think projecting someone’s development curve based on their development curve at lower levels is less problematic than projecting output from one level to the next (the Giroux example). It’s still not a sure fire comparison, but I think it is reasonable to suggest that based on these trends Fehr takes a couple years to adjust his game to higher levels. He may have already topped out and no amount of time will lead to making that last jump, but his past suggests that we should give him a little more time to show what kind of upside he has.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Feb 26, 2010 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
“What is the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything?”
by David M. Getz on Feb 26, 2010 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
easy
Beer, hot wings, and hockey. Next?
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by Chris Burton on Feb 26, 2010 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Wrong, the answer is Jeff Schultz.
by David M. Getz on Feb 27, 2010 7:20 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
FWIW
Flash used to sport 42, right?
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 27, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
222 votes in and each guy has 111 votes. Amazing.
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Don’t upset the gingah lobby.
"I guarantee that we'll beat the Canadians." Ryan Kesler, 8/7/09
by Bald Pollack on Feb 26, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
A couple of additional considerations:
If we assume we’re trading for someone who won’t straight up replace either Flash or Fehr (i.e. a defenseman, or a lower-on-the-depth-chart forward) then we have to move someone into that slot to replace them.
Who replaces Fehr this season? Your options on the Caps are the following: Matt Bradley or Boyd Gordon as a 3L right wing (and the other on the fourth line at right wing with Quintin Laing as a left wing), or you call up Giroux, Gordon, Bouchard, or Beagle from Hershey).
Who replaces Flash as 2C? Brendan Morrison is the obvious candidate, but then that leaves a gap at 3C to be filled by David Steckel, Boyd Gordon, or a Hershey callup (Aucoin or Perrault would be the most likely ones in my estimation).
Fehr leaves less of a hole in the lineup, but it’s not that big of one. Fehr also isn’t going to get a role as a top 6 right wing on this team until Knuble/Semin move on, but then again, Flash won’t get a shot as a top-6 winger unless he keeps playing center, which might not be the best role for him. Fehr is also an RFA until 2012 (while Flash is UFA at the end of next year) meaning Fehr is primed to have a breakout year with the Caps right before he turns UFA. And that might make him expensive to keep in the future, especially if the Caps want to try to keep Semin when he turns UFA.
Let’s also not forget that Fehr still has a potentially huge upside: he put up 55 points in Juniors the year before he was drafted by the Caps; the year after, that number jumped to 84, and again to 111 the year after that.
Weighing the pros and cons here, I say trade Flash. But I say that with some trepidation since I worry about what it does to the makeup of this team and how it’s going to affect us this year.
GUTEN TAAAAAAAAAAAAG!
Who replaces Flash as 2C? Brendan Morrison is the obvious candidate
BMo already has replaced Flash at 2C.
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I got the impression that only happened because Chimera got injured and they needed a guy to fill in on the left wing. Had that not happened, I suppose it would have I suppose Flash might have been demoted to 3C instead of 2C, rather than putting him on the left wing on the third line. If Flash is not playing center, then he’s much more expendable out of the lineup than Fehr is, due to how stacked the Caps are on the left-wing side.
GUTEN TAAAAAAAAAAAAG!
And neither is anyone else.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 27, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
No one is, but center’s not a position that takes two weeks to master. If you give Flash maybe a month or two at 3C, give him more reps to get him ready, maybe he can be a playoff center, though that’s doubtful. He wasn’t awful at the Olympics, either.
Deutschland - das ist alles.
Uh…. He was almost invisible at the Olympics. I remember him scoring against Latvia and blowing a goal against SLO or RUS. He also got taken out of the C and put to W. All in all I thought he had a very disappointing Olympics.
Sure, it’s not like he’ll master C in a month or two, but that’s why the guys that are Cs actually play that position their whole lives. Flash had some experience in Juniors but no pro experience. It’s pretty rare for a guy to be 25 and then all of a sudden a coach realizes he should play C and not W.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 27, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
Keith Aucoin. 29 goals and 51 assists for 80 points in 52 games. And unlike Alex Giroux, he hasn’t completely woofed the biscuit every time he’s played in the NHL.
If you trade Flash,
Ovechkin – Backstrom – Knuble
Laich – Morrisonn – Semin
Chimera – Aucoin – Fehr
Bradley – Steckel – Gordon
is doable. Not ideal, but if the Caps get the stud D or G they need, they can get by with that lineup.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 27, 2010 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
Who replaces Flash as 2C? Brendan Morrison is the obvious candidate, but then that leaves a gap at 3C to be filled by David Steckel, Boyd Gordon, or a Hershey callup (Aucoin or Perrault would be the most likely ones in my estimation).
I don’t know about you, but the names you mention don’t scream out formidable centers. Hence FA spending to fill those roles. And when those guys move on, instead of potentially spending 6 million to be right in the same position we were in July, I’d rather spend half that, with Fehr and Laich for the medium and long-term.
"I guarantee that we'll beat the Canadians." Ryan Kesler, 8/7/09
by Bald Pollack on Feb 26, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
I was speaking more in terms of this year – i.e. who do we have in the organization, assuming that we don’t trade for one. Asking the question of “how does trading either one muck with our depth chart” is kind of hard to answer if you don’t know what you’re getting in return.
GUTEN TAAAAAAAAAAAAG!
I don’t think you cananswer the question about this year without examining what the organization has for several. Fehr gives them the opportunity to make better use of their assets and fills a whole in the organization that doesn’t require a FA signing while a draft pick matures and maybe/maybe not gets onto the pro roster.
"I guarantee that we'll beat the Canadians." Ryan Kesler, 8/7/09
by Bald Pollack on Feb 26, 2010 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
On future roles for Fehr. Both Semin and Knuble have contracts that expire at the end of 2010-2011. Knuble is getting up there in years so we have to see how productive he is at the end of that time frame. He’s doing very well now but his age will be a negative at the end of the contract.
Semin is much younger than Knuble (and only 1 1/2 years older than Fehr).
My own personal long term plan would be to try to keep them both (Fehr and Semin) for 2011-2012 and beyond and they’d be the RW’s on the top 2 lines.
Rocking the Red since 1975
16 for the long haul
I voted to keep Fehr over Flash for a few reasons, not least of which is his willingness to play the tough customers along the boards at both ends. Fehr also seems to be able to create goals, either with tips or traffic, that Flash does not…and he seems to be taking a page out of the Knubible to adapt his game.
I’ll give Tomas his due—he’s a more pure goal scorer and more creative, a better passer, who has taken it up a notch this year—and he may yet become that 20 goal scorer everyone has already marked him down for wanted him to become. I’ll be pleased if he gets it, too. In Nashville.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
I agree with this the most. I haven’t seen a trade scenario yet where I thought we were getting enough value back for either of these guys.
In your mind, what would be “fair value” for one of these guys?
Honestly, the more this conversation goes on the more I’m unsure if I want Flash or Fehr for DH—I used to be set on Flash, now, not as much.
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by Chris Burton on Feb 26, 2010 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
It appears Caps fans are struggling with the decision as well based on how close the vote was earlier today but now it appears more people are choosing Flash over Fehr. I voted for Flash but I’m actually hoping we don’t have to trade either one. I wish we could see them play a couple of games before the trade deadline just to get one last look at them but the Caps don’t play until Wednesday so if one of them is going to get traded that day we won’t get that chance.
Lobbies: Green, Carlson, Orlov
Why not? Neither is remotely close to untouchable.
by David M. Getz on Feb 27, 2010 7:21 AM EST up reply actions
Hmmmmm… Keep another skilled European style hockey player or keep one of the few North American style hockey players you have in the system?
I know its not that simple, but for me and my man crush on E.Fehr, my choice is simple.
Don’t trade either one.
If the Caps make a trade of any consequence, I thihk it’s a betting certainty that one of those two will be going the other way.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Of course, there is another option. Nashville has said to have an interest in Ponikarovsky and Burke is interested in a prospect and a second-rounder in exchange. The Caps could deal for Poni giving up someone like a Bouchard or an Osala and then turn around and trade him to Nashville for Hamhuis. Toronto doesn’t take on any players and gets the prospects they need, Nashville gets a scoring winger for a soon to be UFA and the Caps get the D-man they need without having to upset team chemistry by trading away a popular player.
This is an interesting scenario but its up basically being Poni for Hamhuis, which isn’t really a fair deal. Poile probably only wants to use a pick or two to get Ponikarovsky.
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by Chris Burton on Feb 26, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
I voted Fehr as the better trade bait. A smart GM would look at the advanced stats and think that Fehr is underutilized, has more “potential” and is more of a “steal” if GMGM does the “pick one” bit.
"Ah, dinner. The perfect break between work and drunk." - Homer Simpson
If Fehr has more value, wouldn’t you rather give up Flash?
by David M. Getz on Feb 27, 2010 7:22 AM EST up reply actions
That’s different than “if GMGM does the "pick one" bit.”
by David M. Getz on Feb 28, 2010 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
Trade Fehr
My logic is pretty simple: Fehr is more easily replaced by players already on the roster. Keeping Flash maximizes Boudreau’s flexibility with lines and is a better hedge against possible injuries.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
Are we not concerned with the fact that we have a potential Knuble-successor in the wings? In one and a half years, we’re going to prefer Fehr in that spot instead of Laich, IMO.
by DrinkingPartner on Feb 26, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
If you’re already making a trade that sacrifices a younger player for a return that helps you win now, then losing “a potential Knuble successor” who might fulfill that role in two years is just not that important. Flash helps the team more right now and is a better replacement if, God forbid, one of the Alexes, Backis or BMo goes down.
Moreover, given the difficulty this team has had finding secondary scoring, going forward I’m less worried about finding someone to ride shotgun for Ovie and Backis than I am worried about filling in the second line, and Flash helps out more there.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
Keeping Flash isn’t going to matter if AO or Backstrom go down. He’s a nice complimentary player, but he’s not a guy you can build a second line around. It’s not like he’s guaranteed secondary scoring. His perimeter puck skills are redundant on this team, and trying to play with the puck around the top of the circles is part of the reason we couldn’t establish much offensive zone time against PIT last year. I’d rather have the guy that likes to play below the goal line and seems to only get dirty goals. And really, if moving Flash makes BB re-evaluate some of his personnel decisions then that’s just another reason to get him out of here.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 26, 2010 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not saying it’s ideal, I’m saying that if someone like Semin or BMo goes down, I’d rather have Flash around than Fehr. If Knuble goes down, I’m happy to fill in with Laich rather than Fehr. If Fehr goes away, I don’t think the Caps lose that much by shifting Brads onto the third line, or by flip-flopping Laich and Flash and reuniting Laich-Steckel-Brads.
Flash can play adequately in all three phases of the game. Flash has shown that he can play on the top two lines. Flash has demonstrated that, in a pinch, he can play center.
Fehr doesn’t kill penalties. Fehr’s ideal role on the PP (in front of the net) is already filled by Knuble and Laich. Fehr doesn’t play center. Given several opportunities, Fehr has not meshed will with our other top-6 forwards.
Fehr has made big strides this year, both literally and figuratively, but currently Flash is more valuable to the Caps because of the flexibility he enables. Fehr is likely nothing more than a 3rd-liner on this team for the remainder of this year and probably next year, and that makes him the more tradeable asset.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
I disagree that Fehr has really been given several opportunities. He gets isolated chances but BB never sticks with him and says “here’s your chance, go earn that spot.” Not like he does with Flash.
And just because BB plays Flash at C and on the PK doesn’t mean he’s good at either. I don’t think Flash is very good defensively, he’s bad on the PK, and he’s a below-average center. It’s definitely a good point about who is more replaceable, but I’m still looking at our loss in the playoffs last year and can’t help but think that we need more guys like Fehr, and fewer like Flash.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 26, 2010 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
I specifically recall a period of around 3 games last year when Fehr played on the top line with Ovie and Backis because of injuries. He/they sucked. Badly. I know, that was last year, and Fehr has played better this year, but the fact remains that he just can’t skate with Ovie, Backis or Semin.
I know the question was “Flash or Fehr,” but you’ve got to look beyond just the two players involved and consider the roster as a whole and how players mesh with each other. Flash has shown an ability to play on any line from #1 to #3. I know you’re down on the Flash at #2C experiment, but the fact remains that moving Flash to C coincided with an offensive explosion and a long winning streak. I agree that Flash is not a great center, but moving him to #2C and BMo to #3C (and thereby giving Chimera and Fehr an offensively capable pivot) created a whole that was more than the sum of its parts. Suddenly, we went from having two scoring lines to having three. If you trade Flash, rather than Fehr, you pretty much give up the ability to do that.
I agree with you that last year, the Caps needed more guys like Fehr and fewer like Flash, but consider the fact that we’ve replaced two perimeter players (Fedorov and Kozlov) with Knuble and Morrison, and we’ve replaced an ineffective grinder (Clark), with an effective one in Chimera, and suddenly, this doesn’t look like the “soft/perimeter” roster we had last year.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
You’re right, Fehr cannot skate with AO and Backstrom. You know who else can’t skate with AO or Backstrom? Mike Knuble. You aren’t going to find a net-crasher that can skate with those guys. The net crashers that can skate with elite players are guys like Rick Nash. Tomas Holmstrom sure as fuck can’t skate with Datsyuk, but he sure as hell can be productive with him. Knuble knows how make it work with skilled players, and I like to believe that he’s teaching Laich and Fehr how to do it. It sounds so simple: “win pucks in the corner and go to the net” but it’s much harder than that. Timing is everything. Get to the net too early and you’re covered. Get there too late and the puck is gone. Knowing where the play is going and where support is going to be needed is key, and that’s why Knuble works so well on the top line. Not because he is a world class skater.
Sure, Flash at 2C coincided with the winning streak, but it’s not even close to clear that there was any causation in there. The team started playing well all around, the goaltending stepped up, it was a perfect storm. You’re as skeptical of small sample sizes as anyone around so I know you can’t be sold on Flash at 2C either. He looked downright bad towards the end of the streak. But how’d he look in the Olympics? CZE said they were playing him at C and that was what spurred the whole experiment, so maybe he played well for CZE. What’s that you say? He got moved to the wing in the Olympics because he wasn’t as good a C as Petr Cajanek? Not a good sign. He was pretty much invisible the entire tournament, which does not make me think he’s going to be an impact player in the playoffs. I agree with all your points about adjusting the lineup if Flash can play 2C, but that depends on Flash actually being able to play 2C for the long term. We all know how much BB loves Flash. Last year when it was clear Flash wasn’t getting it done BB kept force feeding him top 6 ice, PP time, and PK time. If BB had any thought that Flash was cutting it at 2C, Flash would still be there.
We have upgraded our grit and toughness this year, but I don’t look at our lineup and think “that’s enough.” Our 3rd line was our second best line last year, and that was with Steckel at 3C. Our biggest problem was our 2nd line. Maybe BMo is enough of an upgrade on Fedorov to solve that, but I tend to doubt it. Flash on 2W isn’t going to solve it. If either Laich or Fehr can play 2W, then I’m more confident in that line. And the other can stay on the 3rd line so we’d still have the strong 3rd line we are used to. C is still our biggest area of concern up front, but that isn’t going to be solved by keeping Flash.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 27, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
We didn’t exactly have a consistent cast of characters on the 2nd line last year. For one thing, Fedorov was out for a fairly long period of time, so we saw Nylander there too.
And then we had a varying cast of wingers. They started with Laich and Semin there and when Semin was hot and the 1st line was cold, Semin was moved up for a while, until he was injured.
People who also showed up on the second line last year included the combination of Flash and Fehr; the combination of Semin and Flash, and a few others.
Rocking the Red since 1975
I’m talking about in the playoffs. You’re right that our second line was rotating all year, but we couldn’t find any combination that gave us a decent second line in the playoffs. Of course, Semin’s injury was a big part of that problem, but it still is a concern.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 27, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
Caps will need more defence, and Flash is more attractive trade on paper at least.
I wish GMGM can keep them both… Fehr is better defensively and bigger body, Flash is faster and more skilled… I voted Flash, sorry buddy.
Trade Flash in this scenario.
One, it will prevent BB from giving him minutes he doesn’t deserve. Two, it’s looking like he’s not a viable center after all, and we got plenty of wings that do what Flash does, and better.
Three, Fehr’s value is higher, as pointed out in the post.
The club takes a higher injury risk, but on balance I like that better than staying with a bad defender and forechecker.
To answer the question that was not asked, I think that Flash probably also brings you a better return than Fehr, so he’s a great candidate to get moved.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Just like it was premature to declare Flash our #2C after he looked good in a handful of games, it’s likewise a bit premature to think that he’s incapable of playing #2C after a handful of bad ones.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
I think the question hasn’t been definitively answered, but I will say this — the reasons Flash struggled in the last few games seem much more persistent to me than the reasons he was having success before.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 27, 2010 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
It’s hard to make a decision not knowing exactly what we’d be getting. But sadly, that’s something that can only really be analyzed after a trade is made.
But to answer the question at hand, Flash. He’s worth more, will command a higher salary and we have a talented young prospect pool who might be able to fit into his role.
Capitals Kremlin the second line center of the Caps blogosphere.
by CapitalsKremlin on Feb 26, 2010 4:03 PM EST reply actions
Care Bears
I’ve heard some people state that they’d prefer to trade Flash because that would take away one of Boudreau’s toys. While I agree with this to a degree, consider that having Flash around gives Boudreau another scorer to put on the second line with Semin, thereby discouraging him from falling back on the Care Bear line.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
Although I'm a card carrying member of the Fehr Fanclub
Yeah, I still say Flash. We’ve really got noone in the system with the kind of skills and big body like Fehr. Osala…maybe…but he has apparenlty regressed or at least has made little progress the last 2 years. You want a smallish forward…we’ve got C-Bo, MP, Bouchard. A. Gordon…
I chose to trade Fehr, although honestly it’s too tough to call.
The reason I thought it would better to keep flash is Bruce’s tendency to flop around lines.
Although… Fehr does seem to have more clutch goals… that’s just from memories though..not numbers.
I’d honestly be surprised to see either go. If someone goes…. I’m thinking D
Actually I wouldn’t be surprised either if they did the same thing as they did last year…. NOTHING.
We might not have the best D men but I think, for the most part, they’re getting better.
This year, so far, we’ve got a better goals against (2.85 as opposed to last season 2.98) and we’re so far ahead of last season’s goals per game it’s not even worth calculating.
I think we’re fine :)
Besides.. I think the more Bruce has kept the lines consistent the better we’ve been. So why mess with a formula that’s brewing slowly into (almost) perfection? He just needs to crack the whip a little harder and we’ll get there.
Flash
Purely for cap reasons: Flash is more of a proven quantity (and closer to UFA), Fehr’s next contract is likely to be short and relatively cheap since both sides have an interest in seeing if he’s still developing.
Trade Fleischmann
For right now, yes, he’s a little more difficult to replace, as others have mentioned. But take away Knuble in a couple of seasons, and suddenly Fehr is the net-crashing forward in the top- along with Laich. Last year we saw a Caps team with tons of skill but not really creating the traffic and winning the puck battles along the boards that they needed too. Fehr is better at the former than Flash and knows that the latter is more his job than a skill player’s job (would rather have Knuble win it and give it to Backstrom than vice versa) and with the development curve for power forwards, Fehr I think is the one to keep.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
Flash
Higher value, based on his production and making the Olympic team. Not sure you lose much with Fehr in his place, assuming that we find a 2C. And cutting costs like this is the way to go, not having to move one of our big pieces.
Higher value
Why would you move the guy who has higher value when you can move the guy who has lower value for the same return?
by David M. Getz on Feb 28, 2010 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
I think Flash’s trade value is higher because he has higher output and is an olympian and its pretty good too considering his TOI, but I’d rather see Fehr go.
"We have a Malkin and an Ovechkin, so it's hard not to talk about 'The Show,' but I agree with you, I like to think our team is here to do a job and play well and play in harmony and find that fine balance among ourselves and within our lineup."
-- Russia center Sergei Fedorov
This hypothetical isn’t really fair, as we’re not in an either/or scenario. Yeah, these two guys are our two most movable assets who are on the current roster who are forwards. Yeah, I wouldn’t be too shaken up if one or both was traded. I get why this conversation’s happening, but there’s no way GMGM is sitting around thinking “Eh, can’t make the deal if you want Fehr, but now, here’s Flash.” If either of these guys head out, it’s going to be based on which one another team wants, end of story.
Personally, I’d prefer to trade Fehr, because I think his return would be higher.
I think a lot of people vote Flash because then Fehr would get more ice time, and they hope he’d keep his current level of production, which I think would be tough against improved opposition. But even if Fleischmann gets more ice time than Fehr because BB has a crush on him or whatever the reason may be, there’s no promise moving Flash gets Fehrsy even an extra second of ice time.
If we’re getting equal return, I’d probably trade Fehr, because of reasons I stated above (Namely, Flash can play center, and we don’t really have a 2C right now. We kind of need one). If one would net a clear return over the other, you have to move that one.
Fehr may be one of the stud right wings in the NHL one day and have a 10-12 year career netting 20+ goals, but I think that’s a stretch. I see him as having a season or two in the upper 20s, and then riding 15-18 most of his career, and having at least one more major injury.
I see Flash as being either a center or wing with a successful career of having ~20 goals a year, with ~30-40 assists.
I don’t know, honestly, which would be more helpful in a playoff series yet, which is why I want to keep both unless we can get a big haul. See how both do, and if you have to move one, move the one who struggles the most in the playoffs.
Deutschland - das ist alles.
This hypothetical isn’t really fair, as we’re not in an either/or scenario. Yeah, these two guys are our two most movable assets who are on the current roster who are forwards. Yeah, I wouldn’t be too shaken up if one or both was traded. I get why this conversation’s happening, but there’s no way GMGM is sitting around thinking "Eh, can’t make the deal if you want Fehr, but now, here’s Flash." If either of these guys head out, it’s going to be based on which one another team wants, end of story.
Why isn’t it fair? It’s a hypothetical set up to spur discussion on who has more value to the Capitals, not an exercise designed to emulate what a general manager’s facing in the next few days.
I agree that what goes the other way is going to depend what the other guy wants, but it’s really not uncommon in sports for one side to say “I’ll take one of these guys” or “Take you pick from any of these players”.
by David M. Getz on Feb 28, 2010 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
|
Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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