Wednesday Caps Clips: The Streak Hits Seven; Ducks @ Caps Game Day

My EYez SaY sChULtz Sux1

Go Flyers.

But it can predict how often you blow yor coverage, if you have the proper measurement tool.

It’s amazing that we’re able to decipher all of these squiggles in the first place.

Don’t start using that crazy points percentage stuff here mister.

That being said, I do appreciate the usefulness of things that are more substantial than G-A-Pts but slightly lower than Corsi (which seriously confuses the hell out of me…although I’ve honestly never really tried to understand it).

Except what if the 40 shots were all perimeter shots, all low quality and/or easily spotted by the goalie; no odd-man breaks, etc., and the 16 shots included a breakaway or two, lots of crease-crashing, and screens in front? Who really had the better night?

Every one of those things is measurable by stats – distance of shots against, number of odd-man braks against, etc.

And here is the problem generally with that kind of conclusion. You are selecting out specific events from a universe of outcomes. Over time, such things regress to the mean (all other things being equal, which they are not — the most important variable that isn’t: talent.).

If a team, over the course of a year is giving up 40 shots a game, I don’t like that goalie’s chances to be able to stop 38 shots a game, even if they’re lollipops. And that goalie who stopped 14 of 16? I’m not going to like his chances, necessarily, when that shot total doubles.

Even now, after 50 or so games, things are starting to sort out on that statistic (shots allowed/game). Generally (it is not universally true), teams that don’t allow a lot of shots are doing well in the standings. Generally, those that do, aren’t.

To me, shots allowed is absolutely the single most underrated number in predicting results over time. There simply isn’t that much difference among goalies (as a function of save percentage) that shot volumes don’t matter.

It is possible to break the game down into a quantifiable set of game states, that would capture the difference between a Matt Bradley shovel to the net and an AO one-timer from the same spot.

We currently don’t have the database or the algorithm to do it, but that doesn’t mean it’s not possible. Such systems exist for baseball. Hockey is incredibly more complex in terms of its game states than baseball, so much harder to reduce to data bits for the purposes of this exercise. But it could be done. And if it were done, we would be able to completely express every intricacy and nuance of the game through statistics.

As it is, we have rough stats that tell some, but not all, of the story; in consequence we have to rely on our eyes and guts (which are inaccurate diagnostic tools at the best of times) in conjunction with stats to get a clearer picture.

In the words of Billy Beane, “this isn’t a modeling contest, its a baseball team”

i still trust an old time scout against a moneyball guy, pure skill can be seen, but not alwats measured in stats

Statistics, used correctly of course, are production. Skill is not. If you want to win games, you want production. Alexandre Daigle and Rico Fata have more skill than Mike Knuble or Tomas Holmstrom, but I know who I want on my team.

To say skill can be seen but not always predicted in stats is an oversimplification. Elite skill can always be seen, but for the guys in the bell curve of professional athletes, it’s more difficult to differentiate.

There is a widely used maxim in statistics (in any quantified sciences) that "if all you know is how to use a hammer, then every problem is a nail." Example — OBSP in baseball. Nice, simple statistic. Uh, what question are you answering by invoking it?

I’ve never heard of OBSP, but if you mean OPS (OBP + SLG) then the reason it’s used is that research has shown that slugging percentage and on base percentage are the only statistics that directly correlate with offensive production.

Breakfast ON bed? That sounds messy.

Well, I should clarify. Too much snark is like getting trashed on a $250-a-bottle brandy -too much and you lose the ability to appreciate it, and it ends up being wasted.

In the end, it comes down to W-L, then who is getting the G-A-Pts.

But wins and losses are products of other actions. And it comes down to a lot more than goals, assists, and points. Preventing a goal is as good as scoring one, which is why shutdown defensive players have so much value.

I don’t think so.

Statisticians are as likely to divine a ’Grand Unified Statistic" to explain the whole story about as much as physicists are likely to find a “Grand Unified Theory” to explain, well…everything.

Does Emmy get the “whoop” treatment?

A Wooly Willy?

Same here.

I ’m hoping the end to the Versus mess may come in March. The UFC is televising their first match on Versus that month. Pissing off UFC fans would be a monumental blunder for DTV. They rake in serious PPV cash from UFC PPV telecasts. I believe that, plus the impending NHL playoffs, may finally break the deadlock.