Pick 'Em: SBN Mock Draft Pick

by J.P. on Jun 22, 2009 1:00 PM EDT in Pick 'Ems

As loyal readers of James Mirtle's From the Rink, you already know that the 2009 SBN NHL Mock Draft is well underway and that the Caps are nearly on the clock. We'll be submitting our pick to Mirtle later this evening, but want your help in making it. Below is a quick look at some of the best players available who may be available at 24th (unfortunately packaging the Caps' pick and the rights to Shaone Morrisonn to move up wasn't an option) and a poll. Whichever prospect has the most votes by the time our pick is due will be "the Caps'" pick. Simple enough, right?

Here, then, are many of the top prospects left on the SBN draft board (click on the player for his NHL.com Draft Prospect Card, and for more on some of these kids, be sure to read DMG's Draft Primer) - whom should the Caps take?

Player	Pos	Ht	Wt	DOB	2008-09 Team/League
Josefson, Jacob	C	6'0"	174	Mar 02/91	Djurgarden/SweE
Holland, Peter	C	6'2"	178	Jan 14/91	Guelph/OHL
Morin, Jeremy	C	5'10"	189	Apr 16/91	U.S. Under-18/USDP
Shore, Drew	C	6'2"	165	Jan 29/91	U.S. Under-18/USDP
Leddy, Nick	D	5'11"	185	Mar 20/91	Eden Prairie/USHS-MN
Palmieri, Kyle	C	5'10"	185	Feb 1/91	U.S. Under-18/USDP
Caron, Jordan	C	6'2"	196	Nov 02/90	Rimouski/QMJHL
Erixon, Tim	D	6'2"	190	Feb 24/91	Skelleftea/SweE
O'Reilly, Ryan	C	6'0"	200	Feb 7/91	Erie/OHL

Poll

So... who've you got?

Jacob Josefson

51 votes

Peter Holland

30 votes

Jeremy Morin

10 votes

Drew Shore

11 votes

Nick Leddy

11 votes

Kyle Palmieri

16 votes

Jordan Caron

32 votes

Tim Erixon

32 votes

Ryan O'Reilly

47 votes

Other (noted in comments)

8 votes

248 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 52 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

IMO? In order of preference

Josefson
Moore (don’t need a D but if he falls, grab him)
Morin
Caron
Holland
O’Reilly

But I haven’t been following the prospects as closely this year as I did last year.

by brs03 on Jun 22, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions

If Josefson is there you have to take him. He’s top-15 talent in this draft. Josefson sounds a lot like Backstrom. He’d be the perfect 2nd line center down the road. John Moore is also a good player. Coming out of the USHL, like Carlson last year.

Out of that list, Josefson and Moore are in a class by themselves. I’ll be jumping up and down on draft day if those 2 players are still on the board at #24.

by B19 on Jun 22, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions

I like the Holland kid. An OHL pedigree, decent size, A center…probably a safe pick more than sexy, but it is the 24th pick you know.

by marks4java on Jun 22, 2009 1:20 PM EDT reply actions

re: Holland

… someone in the Capitals blogosphere (I think) either wrote or found an article about January kids (which Holland happens to be) and their remarkably coincidental NHL success. If anyone remembers that article, could you link it below? Awesome!

by war_capitals on Jun 22, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

it was probably based on or adapted from the book “Outliers.”

Of course, at a dinner party where that was brought up, I just had to point out that the best young forward and best young d-man in hockey have September and October birthdays, respectively.

by RedBirdie on Jun 22, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

You’re probably thinking of the book Outliers (which may have been discussed elsewhere). There’s a chapter explaining that kids born in January-March make up a vastly disproportionate percentage of players in top junior hockey programs. The book explains it as them being more physically mature than the competition each year, since hockey tends to group ages based on January 1st as a cutoff for birthdays. I’m not sure it matters so much at the NHL level – in theory if you made it to the NHL with a December birthday, that would mean you were just as good despite the gap in physical maturity.

Someone may have parlayed that into an article examining NHL draftees’ success based on birth year – that would be an interesting read if so.

by grapejoos on Jun 22, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

interestingly, the NHL cutoff is, what, Sept. 1 for the draft? Which is why Ovie and Green are seemingly 2 years older than most of the guys who were drafted the year after them.

by RedBirdie on Jun 22, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I had read parts of “Outliers” at the book store and nearly bought it.

Actually, the NHL age cutoff is September 15, with Ovi just missing it. Fehr has a September 7 birthday. He and Ovi were born the same month but he was picked in the 2003 draft while Ovi was picked in the 2004 draft. Some team, I believe it was Florida, tried to pick Ovi in 2003 anyway because they knew he was such a great prospect. It was disallowed.

by CapsFan75 on Jun 22, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, they argued he was actually of age if you factored in the extra days with February 29th in leap years

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Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.

by Sombrero Guy on Jun 22, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions

in theory if you made it to the NHL with a December birthday, that would mean you were just as good despite the gap in physical maturity

I would think that a lot of players that make the NHL end up “playing up” in age against players a year or two older than them from the time they hit about 10 years old, I would guess maybe it makes a difference in Junior, but even then those players are significantly better than the “average” kid growing up playing organized sport.

I should read the book before I say anything more, it is an interesting topic and point to make.

by Hooks Orpik on Jun 22, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point, and I think the phenomenon was basically examined as a junior hockey thing. If I recall correctly, Gladwell thought that the effect is probably the most significant the younger the player is, and it gradually tails off over time (but the over-representation endures to the top junior levels because of the significance of that early advantage).

by grapejoos on Jun 22, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

from mirtle back in december:

by Natty Bumppo on Jun 22, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ve noticed that a lot of goalies are born in April.

by zephyr on Jun 22, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

and note the february dip can be partly attributed to the shortened month

by Pivonka, Michael Ridley on Jun 22, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Josefson i smy pick for what the Caps will take. I called gustaffson last year, feel good about Josefson. Not sure if he’s what we need though.

Capitals Kremlin the second line center of the Caps blogosphere.

by CapitalsKremlin on Jun 22, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions

but that’s granted he falls, he’s expected to go before the 20th

Capitals Kremlin the second line center of the Caps blogosphere.

by CapitalsKremlin on Jun 22, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Josefson looks pretty good, but as others have said, I don’t know that he’ll be there come #24. If he is, great. I actually like Drew Shore as a later-round choice if he’s still available, but for first pick, Josefson or O’Reilly.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Jun 22, 2009 1:42 PM EDT reply actions

I’ll go the dark horse route and pick another Swede in the late first round again, and go with Carl Klingberg. You get a big, solid skating winger who has scoring potential and can build a repertoire with Backstrom and/or Baby Gus.

by Bald Pollack on Jun 22, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

By the way, I picked Palmieri because he said Ovie is his favorite player. And that’s why I’m a fan and not a scout :)

by grapejoos on Jun 22, 2009 2:18 PM EDT reply actions

I’m going with Simon Després. Like most of the rest of us, I’ve just got a feeling.

Central Scouting’s Chris Bordeleau says: “[W]hen you want a guy to play defense, he’s your guy. He does it all, he’ll block shots and he moves the puck at the right time.” Works for me.

Plus, his teammates call him “Horse.” Enough said.

by Stephen Pepper on Jun 22, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions

Despres is gone… picked by “Philadelphia”

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Jun 22, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Damn, well, I should be working now anyway. I’ll take Drew Shore then.

by Stephen Pepper on Jun 22, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

My gut says O’Reilly.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Jun 22, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m liking O’Reilly too.

by SethB on Jun 22, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Pshaw. It’s only “not an option” because that slacker McPhee isn’t doing his job! C’mon baby! Caps first, rights to Morrisonn, Schultz and Fehr to Tampa for the #2 overall. Yeah!

by Toddra on Jun 22, 2009 2:57 PM EDT reply actions

Er, the mock draft is being run by SN Nation, not McPhee, and that is one overrated pick.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Jun 22, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

’twas a joke. OK, maybe not a good one. But along the lines of, "If we had a real GM, he would have made this trade and the Caps would be picking second."

With the sports call-in host saying, "Yeah! What is that joker of a GM doing? That’s a GREAT trade. I don’t know why it hasn’t happened yet."

The sound of crickets was overwhelming.

by Toddra on Jun 22, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

If Carter Ashton is still there...

…he’d be my pick. If not, then O’Reilly is probably the best player. The Caps should draft strictly on who is the best player available, drafting based on need is a sucker bet, since no one the Caps pick is likely to play in the NHL anytime soon.

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jun 22, 2009 3:07 PM EDT reply actions

I like what I saw of Caron in Memorial Cup…he seems like a real character guy too

Ron and Fez Noon to Three

by YvonLabresMoustache on Jun 22, 2009 3:07 PM EDT reply actions

O'Reilly

I picked him because the scouting report sounds exactly like what we’re lacking in our forwards (I know, I know, don’t draft for need, but if he’s at least in the discussion as best available at 24, why not pick a strong center who works hard and can backcheck?):

NHL Central Scouting’s Chris Edwards
“He’s very responsible defensively. He backchecks hard and he’s very good at identifying his check in his own end. He’s very good at the defensive end of the game.”

Erie GM Sherry Bassin
“He’s a special player. He’s nowhere near the level he’s going to be. He really accepts the challenge of getting better. He really believes in the team winning, not himself. I haven’t had a kid that’s so focused on preparation and just working on getting better. He’s got such a work ethic you almost have to pull him away. We always talk about the will to prepare — well, he’s got a phenomenal will to prepare.”

by Scott in Shaw on Jun 22, 2009 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I’m sold.

by Gould Old Days on Jun 22, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

“He really believes in the team winning, not himself. "

That sticks out to me in a very good way.

Capitals Kremlin the second line center of the Caps blogosphere.

by CapitalsKremlin on Jun 22, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Every scouting report on the guy comments on his character and work ethic. That, plus the low risk associated with him (eg. “There is little O’Reilly is not able or at least willing to do on the ice. He can score, hit, play defence, win faceoffs, kill penalties and in general play in almost any situation. At the next level, I do not see big offensive potential, but would be surprised if he does not make the NHL in some capacity.”) makes him the guy I want who I actually think will be there (in real life, I see Josefson off the board; if he’s not, I could go either way).

by David Getz on Jun 22, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, no chance Josefson’s there at 24, and no chance the Caps don’t take him if he is.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jun 22, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I was reading more on him after I posted and ended up calling him the safest pick possible at CK, then I saw your post and knew I wasn’t crazy for thinking that.

Capitals Kremlin the second line center of the Caps blogosphere.

by CapitalsKremlin on Jun 23, 2009 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions

just to play devil’s advocate, shouldn’t the caps be worried about selecting another 3rd-line center (by my count we have 3 or 4 of them) when what we really need is a scoring second line center? i’m not saying o’reilly isn’t that guy…but if given the choice, don’t we need someone who doesn’t have defense as his first bullet point (while still showing the willingness to play two-ways and stand tall in the crease)?

i guess what i’m getting at: isn’t it easier to teach defense and instill hustle than it is to teach hands and vision?

by Natty Bumppo on Jun 22, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

in that respect, i’m happy with the gustafsson pick from last year, because even if he never sticks in the NHL, at least he projects as a first- or second-line playmaker.

by Natty Bumppo on Jun 22, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

i guess what i’m getting at: isn’t it easier to teach defense and instill hustle than it is to teach hands and vision?

To a degree, yes. But the extent to which that can be done is overestimated by coaches and GM in my opinion.

by David Getz on Jun 22, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

He sounds like another Boyd Gordon or Dave Steckel…Nothing against those 2 players but their upside is a 3rd line center. That’s all I see in O’Reilly. He doesn’t have the skill set or the finishing ability to be more then an a checking line center.

With that said, he’s a very safe pick though. He’s almost guaranteed to be a 3rd line center. Guys like Holland, Morin, Josefson have a higher upside but are more of a risk.

by B19 on Jun 22, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

He sounds like another Boyd Gordon or Dave Steckel…Nothing against those 2 players but their upside is a 3rd line center. That’s all I see in O’Reilly. He doesn’t have the skill set or the finishing ability to be more then an a checking line center.

A lot of what’s being said about O’Reilly – his ceiling included – remind me of what people were saying about Mike Richards his draft year.

by David Getz on Jun 22, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions

That is true, but Richards scored 30 goals his draft year, and O’Reilly only netted 16 this year. That’s the part that concerns me about O’Reilly. Can he carry a line offensively by himself? I don’t think he can.

But this is 17 and 18 year old kids were are talking about, and that’s why its so hard to project what they will do at the next level.

by B19 on Jun 22, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Was Richards being touted the Flyers’ future #1 center his rookie and 2nd years? I recall him and Jeff Carter being checkers at that point, only later being promoted to top-6 guys.

by red army line on Jun 23, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Was skating a knock on Richards? That’s my biggest concern with O’Reilly, I’m not willing to burn a first on a guy with skating question marks.

by Rob Parker on Jun 24, 2009 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions

I picked him because he weighs the most out of the choices.

by thehoagster07 on Jun 22, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Holland or Josefson

Josefson is a pretty good pick, and I doubt he’ll be around at 24 in the real draft. I like Holland. He’s big and wants to score. Is he physical? I dunno. Joe Thornton is big and likes to score, but he’s a bit of a softy. I ’d rather the 2nd line be centered by someone who wants to get his hands dirty, can play well defensively, and get the puck to semin. Guess what, I want the same thing out of a RW for the top line. We need one of our top 2 centers to be like Richards. Big, strong, skilled and formidable. Too much low key talent promotes pretty passes and fans yelling SHOOT! I want some crash and bang on this team, following Score. Lets bring crash, bang and score together at last.

by Hunky Dory on Jun 22, 2009 3:41 PM EDT reply actions

i just stuck to the players in the list, for the sake of it.

by Hunky Dory on Jun 22, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

This draft just screams for staying put and safely picking the best available pivot, but I sure do hope George can package up the #24 with a prospect, and go up and get someone he is really excited about, like a Zach Kassian. The Carter Ashton writeup was pretty compelling, too.

from the house that Red Jesus built

by bigonetimer on Jun 22, 2009 5:36 PM EDT reply actions

I meant this write up on Ashton, by the way.

from the house that Red Jesus built

by bigonetimer on Jun 22, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

TSN has Josefson at #16 in prospect rankings, which means in all likelyhood that he’s gone by the time it’s the Caps’ turn.

by red army line on Jun 23, 2009 12:30 AM EDT reply actions

Unless the Caps trade up (not happening) or Josefson has some major stock drop, the Caps aren’t getting him, but he’s a player worth hoping for and I’ll certainly wish that he does drop.

Capitals Kremlin the second line center of the Caps blogosphere.

by CapitalsKremlin on Jun 23, 2009 3:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Keep in mind that GMGM has a couple of guys that he might be able to dangle to move up (Fleischmann, Morrisonn, even Bourque) if he wants Josefson that badly. I don’t see him dangling one of the goalies, and I’d strangle him if he did, but there’s a couple of clubs in the 8-15 range who really need NHL-ready players RIGHT NOW and might listen. Moving up is no guarantee but isn’t impossible.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Jun 23, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Seabrook, Lepisto and Godfrey are also bait.

by Rob Parker on Jun 24, 2009 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions

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