Putting Number Thirty In Perspective
by J.P. on Apr 2, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
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PrintWhen Mike Green's thirtieth goal of the season zipped past Joey MacDonald last night, he joined an elite group of blueliners to ever hit that milestone. And yet, it's easy - especially in a town that's blessed with the best goal-scoring forward in at least a generation - to lose sight of just how impressive Green's feat is. Perhaps by comparing the 23-year-old's 2008-09 (so far) to Alexander Ovechkin's brilliant 2007-08 goal-fest, however, we can gain some modicum of perspective.
For example, when Ovechkin hit the 60-goal plateau a year ago, he became the 19th player to do so, and the first since 1995-96. Last night, Green became only the eighth seventh rearguard to reach 30 goals in a season, and the first since 1992-93.
As far as the total number of times the feats have been accomplished, there have been 38 60-goal seasons by forwards (11 since the 1980s), and only 17 30-goal seasons by defensemen (two since the '80s) in the League's storied history.
And in terms of per game production, Ovechkin's dominant 2007-08 season saw him post the 33rd-best goals-per-game (minimum 60 games played) ever by a forward; Green, so far this season, has the sixth-most goals-per-game a blueliner has ever had.
There are other eye-popping stats to consider with respect to Green's season (with a plus-24 rating, he's going to become the first defenseman to score 30 goals in a season and end the campaign with a plus rating since Paul Coffey in 1985-86, and he stands just one goal shy of the single-season mark for power-play goals by a blueliner), but the bottom line is that thirty goals for a defenseman isn't just as impressive as sixty is for a forward... it's more impressive.
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With the risk of being labeled a heretic, I’d call it pretty lucky. I see him as a 20-60 guy in the future, and I’m more than ok with that.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
It was lucky, sure. Just like Gretzky’s 92 goal season was lucky. And Coffey’s 40+ goal season was lucky. And Orr’s leading the league in scoring was lucky.
Just because everything comes together at once, and might never be repeated, does not mean it was lucky.
The keyboard is mightier.
Put another way, less statistically probable does not automatically make it more impressive, in my book. But pretty impressive nonetheless.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
See this is where viewing accomplishments through the cold, hard statistical realities devalues accomplishments. Yes, there is a 2.2% chance of a 30 goal season from a defenseman (made that up). To you, this means he hit the lottery. Come on Debbie Downer, can’t we just bask in this excellence for a while before qualifying it so coldly?
The keyboard is mightier.
Are you even processing my posts?
I see him as a 20-60 guy in the future, and I’m more than ok with that.
But pretty impressive nonetheless.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
less statistically probable does not automatically make it more impressive
Sounds to me like you’re saying he’s a 20 goal scorer who just got lucky this season. That keeps him a rung below the elite scoring d-men in history.
I disagree, and I think you are devaluing his accomplishment. This is an epic season, and all signs point to it being because he is a special player, not just a Sergei Gonchar-type who hits his shots one year.
The keyboard is mightier.
That makes Greener’s accomplishment all the more impressive doesn’t it? People think of Gonchar as being an elite offensive defensemen, but he isn’t really a 20/60 guy… he’s more like a 17/50 guy that had a boom year in ’01. Green really is having a (recently) unprecidented year.
I don’t think that Green’s have a Brady Anderson type year. 30+ will be tough but I won’t be surprised when it happens again.
actually I was saying that in my book, I still think AO’s 60+ was more impressive, even though it wasn’t as rare. that is all. mike green rulez.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
The real key here will be his shooting percentage. If you compare him to other 30-goal seasons by defensemen, you’ll note that his percentage is pretty high. On the one hand, that means he’s probably getting a bit lucky. On the other hand, it’s indicative of how different he is as a defenseman. He doesn’t bomb away from the point, he sneaks in between the dots and flicks shots with his wrists. Another thing: when he’s “on” goalies have no prayer; either he misses the goal high, or he scores.
Realistically, I think he’ll probably see a drop in his goal/game rate, but if he can keep his shooting % around 10 and stay healthy, he should be able to replicate 30 goals (or pretty close to it) every year. Problematically, shooting % is a bit like ERA in baseball. The shooter has some control, but there are a lot of things outside of his control (one of them being luck). Because of his shooting tendencies, Green will always put up a higher percentage than most D-men. Whether he can match his 12%+ of this year remains to be seen.
On the other other hand, it shows you how bad he is at hitting the net consistently. He shoots so much higher than your average Dman does, as he’s usually sniping for the top corner. He’s either scoring or he’s shooting it over the net, and that drives his % up artificially.
That said, I agree that he’ll have trouble repeating a year of this magnitude goal wise. Backstrom won’t always be such a powerplay monster. Ovechkin and Semin (and Fehr, Laich, Flash) could become bigger finishing threats overall. The goals will probably get spread around a bit more in the future.
Why won’t Baxter always be such a PP monster? I don’t see any reason for his skills to decline in the next decade. On the contrary, he isn’t even sniffing his prime yet. Neither is Green. I don’t think there is any reason for us to think we are seeing a career year right now. I’m more inclined to think this is the tip of the iceberg right here.
First, our powerplay probably won’t always be this good.
Also, Backstrom will likely become a bigger PK presence, and as such a reduction in PP time isn’t that hard to fathom.
Add to that the (likely) addition of more playmaking talent in guys like Perreault, AnGus, Bouchard, perhaps Fleischmann picking up his game, etc., and it’s going to become more spread around.
Obviously Backstrom isn’t peaking right now. But his offense probably isn’t going to be focused so heavily on the powerplay in the future.
I don’t see any reason that the Caps PP can’t be as good if not better in the coming years.
If Backis isn’t being replaced by Fedorov on the PP now, I can’t imagine that he will be replaced by any of the guys in Hershey any time soon (and hurray if he is, won’t that be a awesome situation). Also, I don’t know if I see Nick’s role on PK necessarily increasing. As long as there are other guys that can do the job well, I’d prefer to keep him and Ovie and the Caps’ offensive guns on the bench and not blocking shots with their ankles.
I agree. The Caps have a ton of skill that isn’t going anywhere. And they have help on the way. Between Godfrey and Carlson we have two huge shots that could be coming in the near future. I was watching ANA the other night and I got intrigued by their PP. Pronger and Getzlaf on the points, Selanne and Perry down low, Niedermayer roaming and creating havoc. When Niedermayer roams like that it really breaks the box down and opens up a ton of passing and shooting lanes. It also makes it very hard for defenses to be able to predict where he is going to be so he seems to suddenly appear in prime scoring areas. Green has that same ability to move around fluidly and just be in the right spot, but he is a better finisher than Niedermayer is. I would love to see: AO and Godfrey/Carlson on the point, Baxter and Semin down low, Green roaming. That would be frightening. You can also switch Semin out for Laich if you want more of a net presence but either way if you free Green to roam like that with so many skilled guys I think our PP could be even deadlier.
Worth noting: Green will have done all this in a maximum of 68 games, 17 percent shy of a full-season.
Amen
His numbers would be sick if he hadn’t been injured early on.
by Scott in Shaw on Apr 2, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Sweet Jebus, I didn’t even think about that.
Capitals Kremlin the second line center of the Caps blogosphere.
by CapitalsKremlin on Apr 2, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Man those are some sick stats when taken as a whole. Not sure how much traction that has with the people that vote for the Norris but geez thats a whole lot of stuff that is done incredibly rarely in this day in age.
I think reaching 30 greatly improves his odds. That’s a pretty magical number.
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I think either Green will win the norris, or ovechkin the hart. I don’t see both happening.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
I’d personally argue for both, I just don’t think voters would give those two to guys on the same team, unless both were outright dominant. I could see a case there for Green, but Malkin being ahead of Ovechkin could sway some guys, and knowing Green would get one trophy, probably would sway them to another vote.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
We’ve always known how good Ovechkin is, but his first two years in the league also proved that even someone as good as he is can’t win without a supporting cast.
Ovechkin should be awarded the MVP of the league again this year…but Mike Green might just be the MVP of this team.
by PaintDrinkingPete on Apr 2, 2009 1:22 PM EDT reply actions
I’m just saying that you can’t dismiss the importance of Green’s performance on this team…even if he is often playing in Ovechkin’s shadow most of the time.
Obviously I understand that you can’t be the MVP of the league if you are not the MVP of your team—it was just a (poorly made) analogy.
by PaintDrinkingPete on Apr 2, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Here’s my bottom line takeaway from this: As incredibly mind-blowing as Ovechkin’s campaign was last year from a goal-scoring perspective, it’s about twice as common as the season Mike Green’s putting together.
Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
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by J.P. on Apr 2, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
This brings me back to how excited we were last July when he was signed for what seemed like a fair price at the time. It’s hard to characterize $5M+ as a bargain but given what he means to the team, not to mention 30 goals (WOW, that was exciting last night!), I think it’s not out of line. And, won’t he still be an RFA when his current contract is up?
Off Topic
Don’t mean to threadjack, but I found this interesting. Bruce was just on NHL LIve on XM Home Ice and they asked him to name the most skilled guy on the team who isn’t well known. Without a second’s hesitation, he said Flash. And then he added that he expects him to be a 35-40 goal scorer in the near future. For all of us wondering if Flash was headed to the bench, I think the answer is a pretty definite no.
Man I hope BB turns out to be right.
by Moonage Daydream on Apr 2, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I can buy someone seeing Fleischmann as a 25 goal scorer, but 35-40? In the realm of guys like Eric Staal, Thomas Vanek, and Olli Jokinen? I doubt that very much.
I was going to post that I would be happy seeing Flash get 25 a year. 35-40 does seem far-fetched.
Of course, if Fleishman scores goals in practice like he did against Edmonton earlier this season, I could see why BB believes in Flash.
by Moonage Daydream on Apr 2, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Now show Semin
Now MG52 needs to show AS28 how to hit the net.
If at first you don't succeed, don't try parachuting.
To anyone who thinks Green isn’t a complete player, look at his +24 and remember he’s got 37 power play points (meaning he didn’t get a plus) which is more than half of his points. The Caps have scored 77 power play goals, so Green has been in on nearly half of them (and probably on the ice for a majority of them.) So he’s racking up big numbers when he can’t get a plus, and he’s still +24.
To me, right now, he should win the Norris trophy.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Apr 2, 2009 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Really an excellent point. People want to have it both ways – “all his points are PP points” and “he plays no defense.” This pretty much forces them to pick, even though they’re wrong on both points.
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I hope the voters digest this, and I think they will, because it’s the lynchpin of his Norris argument. Only Semin compares on the team in terms of +/-, and Green’s is 10 higher than Schultz despite leading the team in ice time. It’s more than double Ovechkin’s. Green’s PP production is ridiculous, but he’s incredibly good at even strength as well, in part because of his superb breakout skills, but also because he’s pretty decent defensively.
It seems to me that most of the time Green is on the ice for a GA it’s off of a pass to the weak side when Green is on the strong side. How much, then, is Green’s fault relative to the Capital on the other side?
But would that classify as “his fault” or “the other guy’s fault”? I mean, if you let a guy get body position on you and then he deflects a shot in, it’s your fault. So are those goals Green’s fault for not blocking the passing lane and instead blocking the harmless shot lane (assuming the other guy covers his man), or is Green right in playing the shooting lane and it’s unfortunate that the weak side D gets beat?
by red army line on Apr 2, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
There have been dozens of goals scored against the Capitals while Green was on the ice this season. Some have been his fault, some have been the fault of the defensemen, some have been the fault of forwards, some have been the goalie’s fault, most have been a combination of those factors. If you have a question about a specific goal that’d be one thing, but to ask how often it’s Green fault when the opposition scores while he’s on the ice is literally an impossible question to answer.
Wow. Never thought I’d see you throw in the flag on an empirical question. All you’d have to do is go back and watch every goal that Green was on ice for, then code it (his fault, partners fault, forward’s fault, goalies fault, nobody’s fault). Once you have that it’s a simple matter of crunching the numbers. Duh.
DMG makes a good point. I’d tack on that in any given goal exchange, everyone on the team that’s been scored on has something they could have done differently to avoid the goal being scored. Directly, some of those goals may be Green’s fault if he’s up ice, allowing a two on one goal where his partner gets scored on, even if his partner gets walked or plays it wrong. He could be positionally sound, but allow a bad pass to get through, that lets his partner get walked. And even in both of those situations, the goalie could have made a save. (Don’t remember who, Sawchuk I think, said “Every goal I give up is my own fault”)
When you break down a goal, really really break down a goal, there’s never any goal that is the direct fault of one person, unless the goalie grabs the puck at middle ice, skates to his own net, and shoots it in.
However, I have seen a few situations when Green gives up a bad turnover and the other team scores, so, yes, those goals can be hypothetically directly linked to him.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
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