Pick 'Em: Green or Ovechkin?
by David Getz on Mar 20, 2009 2:00 PM EDT
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[Ed. note, 2:49: The post originally went up at 2:00, but we felt it was prudent to reset to the poll and throw in this editorial note: The question here is which player has been more valuable to the 2008-09 Washington Capitals, not who's the better overall player, who will have the better career, or who would be the better pick if all the teams were drafting anew. It's simply a question of whether, all else being equal, the Washington Capitals would be a better team this season with Green but not Ovechkin, or Ovechkin but not Green.]
Ask a Capitals fan who the best player in the world is as you're overwhelmingly likely to get Alexander Ovechkin as your response, and with good cause: Ovechkin dominated the league last season, won the Hart Trophy in a runaway vote,and is continuing to not only rack up points this season but to tally them when it counts most. However a recent article by Tom Awad of Puck Prospectus, an offshoot of legendary think tank and publication group Baseball Prospectus, contends that Mike Green, not Ovechkin, may be 2008-09's Most Valuable Capital, on the basis of a statistics called Goals Versus Threshold, an objective metric that Awad likens to Value Over Replacement Player.
The idea's not as crazy as it might seem at first. After all, Ovechkin is fourth in the league in points per game among forwards while Green not only leads defensemen in points per game and scoring but leads in points per game by the same amount that separates second place from thirtieth. In addition, Green plays more on the penalty kill and plays a position where the Capitals have significantly less depth. Despite this, we were ready to call this one for Ovechkin a couple weeks ago, when the team came out completely flat against the Maple Leafs on home ice. But the Green-less team's recent poor showing against Atlanta and having to contemplate the possibility of an extended stretch without Green in the lineup is making us think the race isn't nearly as clear cut as it seemed at the beginning of the month. So just who is the Capitals 2008-09 MVP?
Solely by the numbers, here's how the two stack up:
| Alexander Ovechkin | Mike Green | |
| Games | 70 | 59 |
| Goals | 50 | 27 |
| Assists | 43 | 36 |
| Points | 93 | 63 |
| Points Per Game | 1.33 | 1.07 |
| Plus-Minus | 11 | 24 |
| PIM | 68 | 56 |
| ATOI | 22:55 | 25:48 |
| Pts/G Rank - Position | 4th | 1st |
| Hits | 222 | 75 |
| Giveaways | 99 | 87 |
| Takeaways | 55 | 45 |
| Blocked Shots | 29 | 90 |
| Corsi | 18.8 | 16.8 |
| GF On/60 | 3.58 | 3.44 |
| GA On/60 |
2.66 | 1.99 |
| Goal Diff./60 | 0.92 | 1.45 |
| Qual. Comp. | -0.00 | 0.02 |
| Qual. Team. | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| Team Record Without | 1-2-0 | 7-7-0 |
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I admit, I have no idea who to pick.
If you were to take a team full of average players and add one of these two, I think the bigger impact is Ovechkin.
Look at the Capitals, and who else they have, I think the more valuable guy seems to be Green.
But I’d rather have Ovechkin in for the playoffs because he can take over not only a game, but a whole series.
Will there ever be another [fill in the blank]?
For historical sake, you gotta take Ovechkin. He is dynamic, can single-handedly take over games, intimidates, and makes those around him better on the ice, and in their effort. There might never be another like him.
Green is “another” Coffey, or “another” young Niedermayer. And no doubt, he is the engine that makes the Caps go, but Ovechkin gets the slight edge for that je ne sais quoi that separates him from his peers.
Sometimes I shake my head in amazement that we have two once-in-a-generation talents on our team, at the same time no less. Then I remember the last 30 years of pain and misery this franchise has inflicted on us, and that it’s about friggin’ time.
The keyboard is mightier.
Green “is the engine that makes the Caps go.”
He really is. The team sputters without him. It’s a much tougher question than the knee-jerk “Of course it’s AO” response I’m sure we all have to the question.
That said, AO.
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And yet I changed my vote on the re-vote. Heh.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
To expand upon my thoughts here, I’m pretty sure that without Green, the Caps would still be a pretty good team. Not a contender, mind you, but a pretty good team.
I’m less confident that that would be the case without AO.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I don’t know, just because of how the depth chart shakes out.
Without AO you’re looking at:
Semin-Backstrom-Kozlov
Laich-Fedorov-Fehr
Fleischmann-Nylander-Bradley
Brashear-Steckel-Gordon
Green-Mo
Poti-Erskine
Schultz-Jurcina
Without Green:
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Kozlov
Semin-Fedorov-Fleischmann
Laich-Nylander-Fehr
Steckel-Gordon-Bradley
Poti-Erskine
Schultz-Jurcina
Mo-Sloan/Collins
And I think you can make the case the first lineup would win more games.
The team record w/o Green – 7-7-0 – says a lot. Where would those minutes go? I mean, invoking the possibility of first-pairing minutes for Erskine says a lot as well.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
If they didn’t have Green, though, they’d have definitely made splashes at other times for #1/#2 Defenseman. We’d have Pronger or Souray or Timmonen, or all 3, if we didn’t have Green. Because we had the safety net of knowing who was in our future, we didn’t feel the need to go after Big-D, because we had at least one stud already waiting in the wings.
I pick AO, though, because for everything Green is, AO is that and a little more. Nobody in the league is the combo platter that AO is, and is irreplaceable for that reason.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 20, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
If they didn’t have Green, though, they’d have definitely made splashes at other times for #1/#2 Defenseman. We’d have Pronger or Souray or Timmonen, or all 3, if we didn’t have Green. Because we had the safety net of knowing who was in our future, we didn’t feel the need to go after Big-D, because we had at least one stud already waiting in the wings.
That kind of analysis doesn’t really fit here, in my opinion. The question is who has been more valuable to this team this season, not who would you rather take if you were building a team from scratch.
I guess the point I was trying to make is that Green, as valuable as he is, is replaceable. He’s not Coffey, yet, is my point. AO is irreplaceable.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 20, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m frankly glad that we don’t have to pick at all :-).
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 20, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Valid point, but the question here is more “If one of these guys were to get hit by a bus on the way to Game 1 of the playoffs, who would you rather it not be?”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
True, but since we’re only including/talking about this season we really don’t have anything else to go by.
Perhaps we should also consider including the records for when each player scores? Granted that’s not Green’s job, but it takes into consideration the small sample set for games without Ovie.
But that's also the thing...
AO’s been unbelievably durable, which is a part of that combo platter I referenced earlier. We have no CLUE what this team would be like if we lost him for a significant amount of time. We DO, on the other hand, know how the team fares with Green out (about 50-50). If AO were to suddenly drop off the team for a longer period of time than a single game at a time (so, in other words, it’s not a buck up and let’s win this one for Ovie, it’s an “oh shit, we don’t have the best player in the NHL anymore, ever” one), I think the team would… hmm. Well, then.
I was about to say fall flat, but then, I thought about the rest of the team… You know what? Maybe Green would be the bigger loss. I think that Semin, Backstrom and company would find a way to score, but I think that the D is irreparably damaged without Green.
But even so, you have to think about the team as a whole, and not just the D-corps or the O-corps. Losing either would be horrendous, but we found ways to win without Green, and we found ways to win without Ovie (this year, at least). Maybe the real question is: how far would we fall if we lost both?
This is a toughie, indeed.
by DrinkingPartner on Mar 20, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m a huge fan of VORP, and i’m getting exactly what you’re saying by basically saying Green’s numbers as a defenceman make him more valuable than a forward who puts up bigger numbers. Its almost like a shortstop who’s more valuable than an outfielder because he puts up big numbers from a position where not a lot of big numbers get put up.
That being said, i’m still taking AO because of Carlson, and there’s a long history in the league of Dmen who put up huge numbers for a couple years and then dissappear (see Delmore, Andy or Oszolinsh, Sandis).
Ron and Fez Noon to Three
by YvonLabresMoustache on Mar 20, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions
But the question is who is this year’s team MVP.
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I don’t see how the fact Carlson is playing in London this year has any bearing on discussion of who the Capitals MVP in 08-09 is.
That was my fault…read the issue wrong. Sorry :D
Ron and Fez Noon to Three
by YvonLabresMoustache on Mar 20, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Playing the contrarian
Mostly because this discussion needs to have a counter to the “of course AO” statement.
but also because of this:
GF On/60 – 3.58 – 3.44
GA On/60 – 2.66 – 1.99
Goal Diff./60 – 0.92 – 1.45
Those numbers staggered me.
And this:
The most important thing that Green brings isn’t a stat (here’s looking at you DMG). What the Caps miss most when Green is out is not his 27 goals, its his ability to break the puck out of the defensive zone. Without Green, they don’t have anyone on the blue line that can do that and move the puck to the studs up front. Ovie, Semin, Backis are all incredible offensive players, but all have shortcomings when it comes to their defense, and they all play offense. Green doesn’t have that gap or that restriction. When he gets the puck behind the goal line, the opposition backs off. He can skate it the entire length of the ice, or he can give it to one of the 3 guys skating ahead of him that can do the same thing.
That is the invaluable threat that disappears when the Caps don’t have 52 dressed, and what makes him the most important cog for the Caps.
I voted for Green (after much deliberation).
With this team I think that 25+ minutes at a 1.45 goal differential at defense is worth more than a 0.92 goal differential with 22+ minutes at wing. Plus, pre Pothier, thought most of the team’s defensemen were one notch higher on the depth chart than they should have been and removing Green worsens that problem.
I’m actually surprised at how lopsided the voting is. I voted for Green and think it should be a close call. Green is just way too valuable to how the Caps play their game. The Atlanta game is Exhibit A. His defense is underrated for sure, but he is essential to what it otherwise a borderline lifeless power play.
On a different note, how awesome is it that the Caps have 3 of the top 10 best overall players on that chart?!
Green missed a lot of his time when the team was slumping so I think the numbers without him are a bit skewed. The whole team played like crap in ATL; it’s not like they were trying their asses off and just couldn’t clear the puck. They just flat out stunk. Yeah, Green no doubt would have helped a lot and I think he is indispensable to our break out (“one man breakout” says BB) but I just want to remind people that there was more going on in all those losses than just Green being out of the line up.
I voted for 8 but I see the argument for 52. I think a case could be made as well (qualitatively) for Backstrom, the best playmaker on the team. His tempo control and poise is sublime for such a young C.
“Schultz for Norris” is five minutes ago.
Now it’s “Green for Schultz,” as in rename the trophy and give it to Green.
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You don’t by any chance work for the Norm Coleman campaign, do you?
by Scott in Shaw on Mar 20, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Zing!
Btw, today’s your mentor’s daughter’s birthday. Some things, you never forget…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Ah.
Got it. Duh. I was mentally going through all of the partners I work for, but it makes much more sense now that I read your comment again!
by Scott in Shaw on Mar 20, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
We really should be able to edit a post
Hmmm
Salma Hayek or Elle Macpherson
Apple Pie or Chessecake
Some questions are just too hard
never let the truth get in the way of a good story
Better = Ovechkin. C’mon, he’s otherworldly good.
More valuable this year = Green. Numbers don’t lie. Although they can make you arrogant, apparently.
The numbers don’t make us arrogant, they’re just a manifestation of our arrogance.
Know what else don’t lie? Shakira’s hips.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Ahhh, the ol’ symptom-vs-cause debate appears in that most unlikely of places, a hockey message board.
While we’re on the subject of numbers, the way uniform numbers get tossed around here makes my head hurt sometimes. E.g., “71, 12 and 89 have a Goal Differential/60 that is 22% better (adjusted for QUALCOMP) than when you substitute 24 for 89.”
Trying to figure out which fricking player belongs to which number can be a chore.
I’m going with Ovechkin because I think the reason I would say Greenie is that the Atlanta game and the upcoming uncertainty is fresh in my mind.
I just have to remember back in October when Ovie was with his grandfather in Russia, the Cap won in overtime against the Preds and lost (in a shutout) to the Sabres. That’s not as fresh in my mind, but it most certainly sucked.
Maybe, maybe not. Ovechkin’s a lot closer to his peers than Green this year.
And that’s not the question being asked here.
Speaking of which, Green is on a 37.5 goals/82 games pace this year (hoping that won’t be the final tally, but that’s it if so). Anyone want to look and see who the last defenseman was to score 35 goals? No, really. I didn’t find it with my 30 seconds of googling.
Different era, for one, is significant to note. They just didn’t play much defense. At all. It’s amazing when you watch the clips – they just took turns wheeling up and down the ice. That Edmonton team had Jarri Kurri (!) score 68 goals, and Wayne Gretzky scored 2.7 points (!!) per game. Another way of looking at this: that team won 57 games, and Grant Fuhr had a GAA just under 4 and a SP of .890.
And the strength of the team is another factor. They were ungodly good, which undoubtedly helped Coffey a ton. Granted, he was a great scoring D-man, but viewed in context, I’m more impressed with Green’s season this year. Just wish he’d played a full season.
I figured it would be Coffey. He really is the right comparison for Green. Honestly, I don’t think he’s that great defensively, but had he been able to play more games I don’t think he could be denied the Norris (and he will still be a finalist if there is any justice). The fact that we’re even considering that he might be as valuable to this team as AO says it all.
I was floored by the stats the Tampa broadcast put up last night showing the difference in Green’s numbers under Hanlon and under Boudreau. It was unbelievable.
The question of who has been more valuable this year so far is almost irrelevant to me. Why? Because all that matters this year is playoff performance.
So looking forward, who would you like to live without the least? DMG laid it out:
But I’d rather have Ovechkin in for the playoffs because he can take over not only a game, but a whole series.
And that’s the difference. The edge that pushes Ovechkin over the top. If we win a Cup someday, it will be because #8 carried us there on his back.
The keyboard is mightier.
That’s a different question. The issue is who has been the more valuable player for the Capitals so far this season.
Is the question really who has helped us get to this point, the #3 seed in a (relatively) weak conference?
Isn’t the heart of the issue (or the more interesting issue, to me): who is the more irreplaceable Capital generally? I think it’s a legitimate question to ask still, when basing off of this year.
And based on this year, I conclude: that Green is, day-to-day as valuable as Ovechkin. If we want to get over the hump into championship contention, no question in my mind that Ovechkin is more important. I hope that makes sense.
The keyboard is mightier.
The question here is, all else being equal, would the Capitals have more point with Green but without Ovechkin or vice versa?
Longer term, who’s more irreplaceable is more important but I also think it’s really, really hard to argue against Ovechkin in that situation.
More points with Green but without Ovechkin, rather than vice versa, but certainly less than with both.
I think the Caps make the playoffs with Green and a top line of Semin, Backstrom, Kozlov. F Street behind that, and Laich, Nyls, AHLer as a third scoring line. That team squeaks out a division title or an 8th seed.
by Scott in Shaw on Mar 20, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
They’d have more points with Ovechkin and without Green. Green is a great player, but there are other guys who could step in and provide some of his production, especially from the point on the PP. They would not be as good, but they would help. Green’s bigger contribution is on the breakout at even strength, and that would be a loss.
However, the Caps don’t exactly have an abundance of top-end finishers, and Ovechkin’s 3rd period and GWG stats cannot be undersold. Semin does have that finishing ability but could he withstand even 60 games as The Man on the team? There is nobody else that can finish on that level amongst the forwards. There would be a serious drop-off without him. He is also the emotional leader of the team.
They’re both unique and special players, but Ovechkin is a top 10 all-time talent and general freak of nature. Green ain’t there yet.
I don’t disagree with your points, but I think it’s a lot more likely that the Capitals would be able to pick up the slack left by Ovechkin as a wing (their deepest position) than at defense.
It is hard to contest that the Caps lack another player like Green, but I don’t think they have a lot of guys like Ovie either. They have one other wing that scores goals consistently: Semin. They have no other forwards that do so. Backstrom probably could score more goals in an Ovechkin-less world, but really, who else is there? Flash? Fehr? Laich? Those guys all have valuable roles (which 2 of the 3 of them are currently filling), but I just don’t see them being able to be this team’s 2nd best goal scorer without a major drop off.
I also disagree because so much of Green’s production is on the PP. While it shouldn’t be underemphasized, because it’s not like scoring on the PP is easy, I just think it’s a little easier to find a guy that can shoot with some extra room on the ice than it is to find a guy that can create what Ovie does at ES.
But I get the point. Ovechkin is great, but Green is out-performing his peers offensively by such a wide margin that it’s surprisingly hard to argue against him. And knowing you, DMG, that degree of statistical deviation probably gets the blood pumping a little more :)
AO is Caps’ MVP. Enjoy it since he won’t be MVP of the league – not unless he tears it up the rest of the games.
If at first you don't succeed, don't try parachuting.
AO is Caps’ MVP.
Even though he isn’t as productive for his position, plays somewhere the Capitals have much more depth, doesn’t kill penalties, and has a worse goal differential in less time on ice?
C’mon, man, if you’re gonna chime in, let us know what you’re thinking.
Heh.
In seriousness, there don’t have to be numbers, just some evidence. To comment with something just saying who you voted for doesn’t add anything beyond the vote itself. It’s redundant.
by David Getz on Mar 20, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
DMG, I don’t think AO is as replaceable as you are making him out to be. Sure, wing is our deepest position on paper, but how many wings do we have that have been consistent scorers this year? One. Semin missed a ton of time and based on his career you can’t say it was a fluke. Flash sucks had one hot stretch surrounded by a whole pile of underwhelming play. Laich is good but he’s not going to carry any offense. The only upside is that maybe Fehr finally gets more ice.
I also think it’s misleading to compare AO’s points per game stats. It should be his goals per game stats compared to the rest of the league, since that is clearly the reason he is special. He is potentially going to win the Richard by 10+ goals for the second straight season. That is just insane. He is also flat out clutch.
Green is the cornerstone to our defense, I agree. But we’ve never seen Green put a team on his back. We have seen AO do it. It’s impossible to know how much either guy would actually have to carry this team in your hypo, but I’m going to go with the guy that I know can singlehandedly carry a team.
DMG, I don’t think AO is as replaceable as you are making him out to be. Sure, wing is our deepest position on paper, but how many wings do we have that have been consistent scorers this year? One. Semin missed a ton of time and based on his career you can’t say it was a fluke
Ovechkin is a monster, no doubt, but he’s also dominating in terms of production like Green is. Neither guy in realistically replaceable but I have more faith the move ice time for Semin, Fehr, Laich, etc would be able to mitigate the effect of a loss of Ovechkin more than uncreased ice time for Poti, Schultz, Jurcina, etc would be able to mitigate the effect of losing Green.
I also think it’s misleading to compare AO’s points per game stats. It should be his goals per game stats compared to the rest of the league, since that is clearly the reason he is special.
Okay. Ovechkin scores .71 goals per game, which is 20% better than the guy in second and the same distance between the guy in second and the guy in 14th; it’s also 31% more than any other Capital. Green scores .45 goals per game, which is 53% better than any other (qualifying) defenseman and the same distance between the guy in second and the guy in 28th and scores at a rate that is 557% higher than any other Capital defenseman.
I think the biggest mark in Ovechkin’s favor is his ability to single-handedly take over a game which is why, even though the numbers back Green, I don’t think there’s a wrong answer.
Yeah there is no wrong answer. It’s an academic exercise, and a good one, at that. I think the disparity in voting is a bit of a surprise. Green has some impressive numbers that cannot be ignored. I think the voting reflects the last sentence you made. AO can singlehandedly take a game over, and he is clutch. We see your numbers, but we also saw the Montreal game last year (just one example, I know how you hate anecdotal evidence). I think your strongest argument is that most of our D are already playing above their optimal spot so losing Green makes that problem much worse. Jeff Schultz really would have to earn that Norris if that were the case.
I don’t hate anecdotal evidence, I just hate when people don’t recognize its limitations (i.e. “I know everything else says Jeff Schultz is a good defender but he got beat by Arron Asham one time so he isn’t” or “One time, coming off a foot injury and when he got caught in the photographer’s hole, I saw Alex Ovechkin not backcheck which means he’s selfish and doesn’t play defense!”). But in the case of Ovechkin’s ability to take over a game it’s been proven many times – the Montreal game was just the best example.
To date this season, I’ve counted three games where Ovechkin has taken the team on his back. @NYR and his two hat tricks. I’ve also seen Semin carry the team on his back a few times. Green, no, but he has had some nice games, and really, how many times does a defenseman take over a game? I feel like Green is a more consistent threat (consistentky gets good opportunities). Without him, the way the team has been playing, they’d be better I think than if Ovechkin were missing. I do think though that the defense is more capable of playing better than the forwards, and would pick up some of the slack without Green. The coaches would also find a way to win, and Ovechkin would no doubt play better. My vote went to 52.
Isn’t it great that we can have this discussion now?
by red army line on Mar 21, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the disparity in voting is because OV has been this critical to the Caps for four years running and Green has “only” been this important to the Caps for the past two seasons. I too don’t think there is a wrong answer I went with OV because of the 70GP vs the 59 – hardly near as cereberal an analysis as DMG’s efforts. I am just so glad we have them both and hope that Green gets back to form after the hit in Tampa.
by markbona-capsfan99 on Mar 21, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Easy choice for me…Ovechkin. Green, however, would lose this contest to few others.
by PaintDrinkingPete on Mar 21, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions
This Is A Tough Call - No Doubt
I’m glad we have them both and they are definately the two most valuable guys on the team. I’m going with OV the ~20+ more goals and the way his being on the ice clearly enables the other four guys out there to have so much more space and time…..Green’s great but take away his power play goals and he starts to look just great not super-human though his GA on/60 stat for a D-Man with the number of minutes he has on ice is pretty awesome……… like I said hard call and if he has two more years of the next 3 where he does the same as this year – like OV has done over the past 3 years – then it’ll clearly be a toss up…..LETS GO CAPS!!!!
by markbona-capsfan99 on Mar 21, 2009 6:04 PM EDT reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
53 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 61 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
56 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
53 | 23 | 24 | 6 | 52 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.11.2012 at 8:02 AM EST)
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