How Much Secondary Scoring Do The Caps Need?
by Stephen Pepper on Mar 11, 2009 3:31 PM EDT
45 comments
photo credit: AP photo
The hew and cry over the Capitals' lack of secondary scoring is persistent and largely deserved. As dominating as they can be, top forwards like Messrs. Ovechkin and Semin aren't each going to score in every game. So it's all of those "other guys" stepping up, when the stars are stymied, that earns tough wins, and makes fans dream of a 50 win season.
Putting aside the semantic debate about what exactly is "secondary scoring" (guys on the second line and below? Third line and below?), we'll consider the two Alexes, Mike Green, and Nick Backstrom (hereafter the "Big Four") to be primary scorers. Everyone else falls into the category of secondary scorers. Fair enough?
Looking at the 68 GP by Les Capitals thus far this season, the Big Four have, collectively, averaged 2.05 GF/G in wins (41), and 1.19 GF/G in losses (27, including SO and OT losses). The rest of the bunch, in those 68 contests, has collectively scored an average of 1.9 GF/G in wins and 0.88 GF/G in losses.
In losses, then, the Big Four's goal production drops off 42%, but the rest of the team's production drops 54%. Ideally, the latter should be the smaller percentage, given that 14 other skaters on a given night fall into the "other" category. And interestingly, in the games in which the others don't score at all, the Caps are 4-9 (including three games where the team was shut out entirely).
Here's something else to chew on this afternoon: The two Alexes have accounted for 15 of the 38 GWGs this season. Tomas Fleischmann has four (good for him). But no one else has more than two, including names like Sergei Fedorov (who just earned his second last night) and Viktor Kozlov (zero).
The Detroit Red Wings have six players with at least three game winners this season. The San Jose Sharks have five such players, as do the New Jersey Devils. So there's your benchmark.
But just how much secondary scoring does a Stanley Cup Champion need?
Surveying the last five Cup winners, here's how point and goal production was distributed during the relevant regular season:
* C Matt Cullen had 49 points.
** The Big Four, of course.
*** Projected: The Big Four, plus Flash.
**** Projected: Brooks Laich, Kozlov, Eric Fehr, Fedorov, and David Steckel.
The current Caps would seem to match up exactly with Detroit's distribution from last year, especially if those "projected" guys shake off the recent home malaise. Surprising?
The disparity between Detroit's GA/G and the Caps' figure provides a sobering counterpoint. As the Caps sit 6th best in the league in 5-5 F/A, that disparity owes much to the Caps committing the 4th most minor penalties, and its 22nd ranked PK% -- subjects already discussed at length here.
Still, while the lack of secondary scoring has been a recent issue at home, the Big Four have been meeting or exceeding expectations nearly all season long. Green has already exceeded his season-best points total in this campaign, not to mention earning that NHL record for scoring in eight consecutive games. Nicky has also already bested his rookie point total (with 71 points to date), and is on the cusp of a 20 goal year. Ovechkin is capable of cracking the 60 goal mark again. And Semin is on a pace for 107 pts and 48 goals over 82 games, and 40+ goals are still within reach for him this season (a feat not yet achieved in his young career), based on his torrid pace these days.
And it's a rare and special season all on its own when all of a team's star players are performing at their full potential.
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Nice article.
Myself, I don’t think the Caps have what it takes to win it all this year. And you raise both the issues standing in their way: secondary scoring and defense.
They’ll need a little more out of Flash, Fehr, Laich and maybe one of the minor leaguers in terms of scoring punch in order to be a real dominant force. And they’ll need an upgrade to Morrisonn and Juice (and I specifically hope that it comes from Alzner and Carlson). Perhaps a FA pickup, if they buy out Nylander and gain some cap room, would help on the blueline.
I’m on record here as saying that a first round win in the playoffs means success this year, and anything beyond that is gravy.
by fat_daddyo on Mar 11, 2009 3:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the Capitals have enough secondary scoring, especially since their primary scoring is so dominant.
I would like to see more of an offensive contribution out of the blue line in the future, though.
by David M. Getz on Mar 11, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps I should have been more clear – I’d like to see them have more consistent secondary scoring. It tends to be patchy and when they’re in a bad patch, they struggle.
by fat_daddyo on Mar 11, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems the problem with the Caps’ secondary scoring is more an issue of “when” than “how much.”
The drop-off in production from secondary scorers from wins to losses is striking – the Big Four are fairly consistent, and the difference between wins and losses is often dependent upon whether or not they get any help.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 11, 2009 3:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
does the post have a picture? it’s from pepper.
by Natty Bumppo on Mar 11, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does the picture have a dead-sexy drop shadow? It’s from Pepper.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 11, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Pepper should lead-in to all his posts with a giant picture of his avatar.
by David M. Getz on Mar 11, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plenty of time for panic post-April 12.
by Stephen Pepper on Mar 11, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i knew there was something extra cool about that photo!
by Natty Bumppo on Mar 11, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the last sentence is pretty key. It’s even more key in the salary-cap era.
Part of what’s frustrating is that the Caps’ non-top-four guys don’t seem to be doing what is necessary for secondary guys to score goals. Eric Fehr does not park his lanky ass in front of the net often enough. (When he did a while back: Goals, goals, goals.) Milan Jurcina and Jeff Schultz don’t get their shots on net often enough. And so on.
by TylerG on Mar 11, 2009 4:13 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Very good points. Maybe Boudreau ought to coordinate some communication in this regard between Schultz, Jurcina, Mo, Erskine and the grinder forwards.
by David M. Getz on Mar 11, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
rec'd
How do you convince Steckel, Laich, Fehr that they should be parking themselves in front of the goalie?
by Sct112 on Mar 11, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure 39 should be down low in front. Gabby doesn’t typically like his Cs to be that low in the offensive zone. And 21 is the only guy who regularly goes there. But Fehr: Something different from what Gabby is doing now. It ain’t workin’.
by TylerG on Mar 11, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fehr needs someone else to be the puck carrier/playmaker. He’s the garbage collector. When he’s teamed with Laich and Steckel, though, he’s gotta be the puck carrier… When he was with Flash and Feds, they carried the puck and Fehr crashed the net… he had his best games with them. Maybe if Bruce would switch Flash and Fehr, having Feds, Semin and Fehr on one line (admittedly it moves Fehr out of position somewhat, he’s mainly an RW, but he’d have to play LW there). Having someone to make moves like Flash with Laich and Steckel would help them too…
by MikeL-Caps on Mar 11, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is a legit argument. Haven’t you ever played NHL 08 guys? You need a dangler, a passer and a grinder on the same line… works every time.
Move Fehr up with Semin, Semin can play the LW, and Flash down with Laich and Stecks.
by Sct112 on Mar 11, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about NHL 2k…3? There was actually something where you could see the chemistry on the lines based on what player types were on it.
by David M. Getz on Mar 11, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about Nintendo Ice Hockey – two fat guys, a skinny guy and an average guy. Hook it.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 11, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You’d have no chance against my entire team of fat guys.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
by macvechkin on Mar 11, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I rule when playing as Poland.
by Stephen Pepper on Mar 11, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
rec'd
I couldn’t resist, too many fond memories. I always left the skinny guy on the bench though, two fat, two average.
by Sct112 on Mar 11, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
God bless the internet for things like this.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Mar 11, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That Chemistry Meter thing was in NHL 07 I think. They got rid of it because on a few teams you could make ridiculously advanced line configurations.
It was also bad for teams like the Pens that have 12 centers on the roster.
by zephyr on Mar 11, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
Put Nylander and Fehr together. Nyls will carry the puck and Fehr will go to the net. I’ll give you a preview:
Russian Machine Never Breaks
by macvechkin on Mar 11, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
That was a drill that I skated growing up. First, do it skating forwards, then we did it coming back, skating backwards. That was always good for a collision or two.
by Sct112 on Mar 11, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That drill is brutal when having to always face the clock (i.e., shift from forward to back skating).
It’s embarrassing to admit how long it took me to finish all of the circles in a recent adult skills clinic.
by Stephen Pepper on Mar 11, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well I thought it was a funny joke anyway…you know, the circles and all….
Russian Machine Never Breaks
by macvechkin on Mar 11, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bleeping Hilarious!
Upper Body Injury? More likely a short leg that causes one to skate in circles. And how about keeping him a “healthy scratch” for 4 games before Trading day and then disclosing this UBI after a poor game vs Toronto. Excuse me, but did he have any contact to cause this?
"Every person is a damn fool for at least five minutes every day. Wisdom consists in not exceeding the limit." Elbert Hubbard.
by Izzyforeal365 on Mar 11, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Semin is naturally a LW so playing him with Fehr doesn’t move him out of position. BB likes Semin on the RW so that when AO takes long shifts it doesn’t keep Semin off the ice. Obviously on the SOB line Semin moves to RW because nobody displaces AO.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 11, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Create an incentive. Tell them to do it, and when they do it, give them more ice time.
I think Laich’s willing to do it anyway, though.
by David M. Getz on Mar 11, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Laich is clearly willing to do it. I don’t like the suggestion that Fehr doesn’t do it because of “willingness” though. I think it just has a lot more to do with linemates. People have already pointed out that Fehr needs to carry the puck more when he is on a line with Steckel and Laich but I would point out something else. When Fehr is on a traditional grinder line he doesn’t have the opportunity to go to the net because they don’t have puck possession. The grinder lines spend all shift just trying to maintain possession on the cycle and they don’t have the one player that can make a pass or beat a man 1 on 1 to create a scoring chance. Fehr would be pretty useless standing in front of the net while his teammates did a two man cycle. Just another reason to play Fehr with puck possession guys.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 11, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is a tough problem to fix since 16 seems to be the one most often carrying the puck into the zone. that makes it more difficult to get camped in front of the crease, don’t you think?
by mechanicsville on Mar 11, 2009 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's been done
For what’s it worth, while not likely, you can win a Stanley Cup with a dominant “Big Four” doing the majority of your scoring. The ‘90-91 Penguins won the Cup with four guys-Lemieux, Recchi, Kevin Stevens and Larry Murphy- accounting for almost 55% of their playoff scoring. It doesn’t happen often, but it can be done.
by b.orr4 on Mar 11, 2009 4:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Danny Manning scored most of Kansas’ goals way back wh… oh, nevermind.
by TylerG on Mar 11, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Danny and the miracles ftw.
(kansas fan)
by Ovechwin on Mar 11, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Memphis choked.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
by macvechkin on Mar 11, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chalmers hit the shot of a lifetime.
I don’t think there are words to describe how jubilant I was after that.
by Ovechwin on Mar 11, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What a team....
Wilt Chamberlain scored a high percentage of Kansas’ “field goals” for them as well but there is no need to speak of the final game versus the damnable Tar Heels.
And little known fact: Chamberlain’s 100 point game in the NBA technically never finished because the fans rushed the court in the middle of the game after he got his 100th point.
(Another HUGE kansas fan.)
by Wisper on Mar 11, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
10 guys with 10+ goals has been my standard for “balanced” scoring, so the Caps are right there. However, while I believe we have a number of decent secondary scorers, there is no consistent threat beyond the Big 4: one should expect that a Michael Nylander or a Chris Clark could be such a player, but that’s wishful thinking now…again, this is something that could have been addressed at the deadline—cheaply, imo—and wasn’t. We’ll see if GMGM was correct.
by bigonetimer on Mar 11, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
eXcellent article...
I never gave much thought to the past Cup winners and how their teams stacked to the Caps. Really interesting.
As far as secondary scoring, getting in front of the net—
Guys like Brooks used to love just net crashing all day. He even had that awesome quote last year about if you want money you go to the bank, if you want goals you go to the net.
Maybe all of the Caps feel like they are too skilled to just net crash now? You can’t tell me that Semin isn’t rubbing off on them. (pun intended)
I think the big problem is the team doesn’t get enough rebounds for being in front of the net to do much right now. The Caps shots go 1 of 3 places more often than not:
1. Wide & High
2. Straight into the goalies chest
3. Blocked
As bad as Ovi was shooting from 40 feet away last night he at least is producing some great rebounds by placing the shots where the goalie would have to stretch and give up a rebound.
The Caps need the D to start getting some more shots through on net if they want more secondary scoring.
by zephyr on Mar 11, 2009 5:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I enjoyed this article, but just stepping back a bit, I think there’s just a little too much focus on offensive production. We’re tied for 6th in league in goals/game with 3.21. I guess that a team with Ovechkin and Semin may be viewed as “underachieving” offensively with only being 6th, but I just don’t think that’s what’s ultimately holding us back.
by Pivonka, Michael Ridley on Mar 11, 2009 6:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
69 | 46 | 14 | 9 | 101 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
68 | 28 | 28 | 12 | 68 |
|
Atlanta
|
68 | 28 | 29 | 11 | 67 |
|
Florida
|
67 | 28 | 29 | 10 | 66 |
|
Carolina
|
68 | 28 | 32 | 8 | 64 |
(updated 3.16.2010 at 8:32 AM EDT)
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