Game Day - Capitals @ Predators
by J.P. on Mar 10, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
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When the Caps take to the ice tonight in Nashville, they'll be facing a team fighting for its proverbial playoff life for the fourth time in five games (sorry, Leafs - you're cooked). In fact, each of those four teams - Florida, Carolina, Pittsburgh and Nashville - is currently within a single point of eighth place in its respective conference and on the rise.
In the first three of those match-ups, the results have been somewhat predictable - the hungrier team has beaten the team with less to lose, and done so by a combined total score of 15-7 - and it gets no easier for the Caps tonight, as they face a Preds team that comes into the game every bit as hungry and hot as the trio of desperate squads D.C. has lost to in the past ten days, having just had a six-game winning streak (in which they scored 28 goals) snapped on Saturday in Philly.
For the Caps, Nashville is the last Western team on the schedule, which is a good thing, given the team's 7-10-0 record against the Conference. Then again, they are 4-2-0 against the Central Division, including a 4-3 shootout win over these same Predators back in late October (and who can forget the Caps' last visit to Nashville?).
But the Preds are a tough out at home (21-11-2), have been stingy defensively all season long (thanks to Pekka Rinne and a great group of mostly young blueliners) and, as mentioned above, have been scoring in bushels lately. Their penalty kill has been outstanding, and while their power play hasn't been over the course of the season, the Caps PK has allowed thirteen goals over the past eleven games, which must have Shea Weber licking his chops.
Without a doubt, the Caps will be tested tonight, and if they're not ready, they could get embarrassed (just ask Detroit). But if they come to play from the opening faceoff (and this is key - Nashville is 27-6-2 when scoring first and a League-best 15-0-1 when leading after one period; 6-23-2 when allowing the first goal), there's no reason they can't take another two points out of Music City.
After all, the Caps have Alexander Ovechkin and Nashville doesn't.
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They’d jolly well better come ready to play. Four losses in a row is enough, and Carolina is on fire right now. That’s one favor from last season I don’t want repaid, thanks awfully.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Don't worry
Carolina’s not catching the Caps. The Canes are nine back and have played one more game. This time last year, the Caps were 3 back and remember how hard it was to catch them? More to the point, if the Canes were to win 12 out of their remaining 14 games (highly unlikely), the Caps would still only have to play a little over .500 to capture the divison. Florida is probably more of a concern because they have a game in hand, but they just lost McCabe and Horton and have a tough road stretch ahead of them. The Caps have by far the easiest remaining schedule (in fact, the Caps have the easiest schedule of all the teams in the East). That said, I have a feeling the skid is going to continue tonight and probably through Thursday as well. The Preds have been playing really well lately, are tough at home, have a hot rookie goalie (Steve Mason ring a bell) and the Caps stink against the West.
It was difficult to catch Carolina last year because they were playing well (just not quite as well as the Caps). The Caps on the other hand have been awful of late. I hope that Bruce has a big picture of the worst case scenario up on the wall.
As for the upcoming games, I’m afraid you are right. Though, if they win tonight I feel like I’ll have to re-evaluate my position.
I wish I was so convinced.
I seem to recall us winning 11 of our last 12 last year? I certainly wouldn’t count Carolina out of that, and they’re scary good right now. Losing Horton and McCabe is going to hurt Florida, but I watched the Carolina/Rangers game last night, and I’m not so sure they can’t do it. They were solid.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I just don’t see that happening…maybe I’m the unforgiving optimist, but by my math:
1) Canes don’t lose another game this season, giving them 105 pts — Caps would need to go 10-5 (not likely, but worst case scenario)
2) Likewise if Florida wins out, the Caps would need to go 11-4 to win the division
3) Caps go .500 the rest of the way (7-7-1) giving them 101 pts. The Canes would need to go 12-1-1 to win the division and Florida 13-4.
4) Finally if the Caps continue their spiral and play at a 5-10 clip, giving them 96 points, the Canes would need to go 10-4 and Florida 10-6.
Not so likely right?
And the pessimist here.
Um, given current conditions, that’s exactly what will probably happen :) We did it last year, remember, and Carolina is playing at that 12-1-1 clip right now. Several teams (Nashville, Vancouver) are playing at that kind of clip.
I’m not saying it’s impossible for us to keep it, but if we’d like to keep it we had best get a wiggle on and get into playoff mode, like, um, NOW.
On the other hand, while this game has all the trappings of a letdown, I’m also not convinced that there aren’t other factors at work. Remember, we’ve lost four in a row, the most we’ve lost in a row under Boudreau. I expect the guys are smarting about now, and I KNOW we as fans are. A couple of our stars are due, and Laich looks like he’s stepping up to the plate based on the last game.
Another thought … what about Pothier? Given how this team runs on emotional highs and lows, doesn’t a Pothier return seem like exactly the sort of thing that would kick this team in the butt and give them that extra edge?
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Now that I agree with. Those are all four must-win.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Must win? Not so much.
A true split where each team takes two points in the two games is OK with me.
by Moonage Daydream on Mar 10, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
What? Me worry (part two)
Carolina has been playing well over their last ten games but take a look at who they played:
Tampa Bay (twice-second worst team in the league)
Islanders ( worst team in the league)
Colorado (fourth worst team in the league
Buffalo (who had just lost their #1 goalie the game before)
Calgary (who was playing its second game in two night on a long road trip)
Rangers (who was also playing its second game in two nights)
Washington
Now, by comparison, let’s look at what’s ahead for them:
14 games remaining
Only three games against non-playoff contending games
A three game road trip to Chicago, Dallas and Washington
Three games against the Devils including two in NJ
Two games against the Caps
Single games against Florida, Rangers, Pittsburgh and Buffalo
Two back-to-back games and twice they play three games in four nights
Florida is in a better situation with a game in hand on the Caps but they’re schedule is also tough:
16 games remaining
Five games against non-playoff teams
Road games against Buffalo (twice), Philly (twice), Pittsburgh and Dallas
They do have nine home games in their favor but only four of them are against non-playoff teams
Plus they just lost Bryan McCabe for at least two games and Nathan Horton for at least two weeks.
One back-to-back and one time they play three games in four nights
Statistically, the Caps have the easiest remaining schedule:
15 games remaining
Eight games are against non-playoff teams
Three out of the five remaining home games and half of their remaining road games are against non-playoff teams.
No back-to-backs.
If I’m going to worry about anybody, it would be Florida. It can be done, but I find it hard to believe that a team as talented as the Caps can lose a nine point lead in 15 games.
by b.orr4 on Mar 10, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Real good stuff up and down this thread, all. Rec’d.
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Since I argued against you earlier…let me try to keep the streak going :)
but I find it hard to believe that a team as talented as the Caps can lose a nine point lead in 15 games.
My heart has been shattered two years in a row now by the Mets. Trust me it is possible.
/don’t see it happening here due to both of our comments above
I forgot to mention that while many look at last season’s 11-1 finish as reason to believe the Caps could be caught this year, there are some big qualifiers. While it was impressive, the Caps only beat three teams during that run that actually made the playoffs and none of them finished higher than 7th in their conference. Both Carolina and Florida would have to beat far better teams to duplicate what the Caps accomplished.
Silver linings. Is everything in your world so rosey :)
Even if the Caps do lose the division to one of these teams. The rest of the Eastern conference would also have to play at a 11-1 clip (Rags/Pens/Habs) to knock them out completely.
Hey, I don’t make this stuff up. :-) There’s enough bad stuff out there to really worry about. Why lose sleep over something that has a 4% chance of happening?:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/easternstandings.html
Time for Mike Green to net one
It’s been a very long time since Mike Green has scored. What is the Caps’ record since he set that record….500?
If at first you don't succeed, don't try parachuting.
Since his record he’s been good for 8 points over 11 games, granted only one goal, but not horrible production out of him. Personally, I’d rather see him correct the -5 over that span and let someone else put a few home.
Where are the Forwards Not named Alex?
1) Not good when you have to rely on one of your defensemen to score to win, regardless of who it is. Meanwhile Fleischmann has scored a whopping 2 goals in the past 2 months despite getting lots of quality ice time!
I really don’t want to start this argument today…so this will be my last on Flash for the day. During that same two months Phil Kessel has four goals and fewer points despite having the almost identical ice times.
Going back to 1 January:
Kessel – 4G, 5A (24 games)
Flash- 4G, 8A (27 games)
I think this is a legit question for sure. I don’t want to start the argument either but I would guess that there are lots of folks in Boston that are saying “Where’s Kessel?”. I don’t really care if its Flash or Brads or Fehr or Laich or Alzner that starts putting the puck home. If this team is going to do anything over the next two months someone besides an Alex is going to need to score a few goals.
You talkin’ to me? You talkin’ to me? You talkin’ to me? Then who the hell else are you talking… you talking to me? Well I’m the only one here. Who the f do you think you’re talking to? Oh yeah? OK.
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I agree with both you and Faux that someone not names Alex needs to start contributing more…but there is a reason the “young guns” get paid the big bucks. Not only that, players slump, it’s part of the long season. Right now, the only secondary scorers on this team holding up their end of the bargain (being good for around 20-25 goals per year) are Flash and Laich.
Personally, I want to see more scoring out of Feds, Kozlov and Fehr…not to mention the defense. Erskine, Schultz and Morrisson get a pass because they are typical stay at home guys. Poti and Jurcina do not. 26 points (13 each) is inexcusable.
To be fair, I think part of the reason Poti’s not putting up big numbers is that he’s being asked to play a defensive role against the opposition’s best players most night.
I admit to being a little frustrated with Kozlov (especially since so high a percentage of his points come on the powerplay), but Fehr and Fedorov are actually scoring more than Laich and Fleischmann per minute of play.
but Fehr and Fedorov are actually scoring more than Laich and Fleischmann per minute of play.
damnit….+1 This is what I get for posting at work and not doing my research.
But saying that, at this point in their careers you rationally expect mucn more than 25 goals for either of them per year.
/again I gracefully admit fault in not including ToI
It’s completely understandable, especially given that the only place I know of that publishes the production statistic is ESPN. Here’s the how the Caps stack up.
Mash that up with the amount of PP ice time they’re getting, and Fehr is simply destroying Flash in terms of production.
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I’m not opposed to Fehr being out there if only to put a body in front of the net. I know I’m in the minority, but since we’re talking PP now, I loathe having OV out there the full two minutes and hate hate hate it when I see Backs and Feds out there at the same time. In my fantasy world the two units would like something like
OV, Green, Backs, Semin, Laich
Poti, OV/Green, Flash, Fehr and Kozlov
Bruce has been using Fehr on the point on the PP lately. This I do not understand.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I thought that that was only against Toronto when they didn’t have enough guys to actually play the whole game, was it during the Penguins game as well?
What about putting Fedorov on the point instead, and Ovi in the crease? I’m really starting to dislike Ovi on the point, the puck hops over his stick too much.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Two things. One is that Ovechkin’s got such a great shot, it’s nice to have him where he can utilize it. The other is that playing the point takes less out of you so he can stay out there for 1:30 before he gets tired and needs a change.
i like AO at the point because of his ability to read the defense and find holes in the zone. for such a megastar, he has an incredible knack for sliding in and getting open…the point allows him to pick his spots and work longer shifts.
by Natty Bumppo on Mar 10, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
But they don’t usually come from the point, do they?
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
And I got bergled there by a boss…didn’t finish this post…I know Feds is missing there I prefer him out there in some fashoin. Probably replace OV/Green.
My problem with that is that you don’t have anyone on the front line of the second unit that can win a faceoff.
[Insert Nick Backstrom joke here]
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I agree with regards to Ovechkin for two full minutes. It’s just too long.
I think I’d go:
Semin-Backstrom-Laich
Ovechkin-Green
Fehr-Kozlov-Fleischmann
Fedorov-Poti
Of course, then I don’t know who takes the draws on the second unit…
Can we sit Flash and put Gordo or Steckel in the middle of it. I’m sure that both of them would be happy to stand in front and act as screens and they would certainly be able to win a faceoff or two.
Stecks! I’ve been advocating for him to get PP time forever. Big body, wins draws, can cause havoc in front and scored 30 in the A a few years ago. He could do it.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Again, I wouldn’t argue against that…but quite frankly it’s hard to argue about the players out there when it’s working. Getting goals on the PP hasn’t really been an issue this year, the issue has been goals (mostly secondary and tertiary while ES).
Now I wouldn’t be opposed to giving Stecks a little more ES ice time…and I think he’s gotten a bit more recently (no stats to back this up other than my 2 eyes). I mean he is a former first rounder isn’t he? Why not give him a shot on the 2nd line for a bit.
Again, I wouldn’t argue against that…but quite frankly it’s hard to argue about the players out there when it’s working.
Hard to disagree with that.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I’m working on a fanpost along those lines coincidentally.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
by Bald Pollack on Mar 10, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Yay! Thank you. Steckel is very good in the dot and is big enough to crash the net effectively. I also kind of like the idea of putting Brash on the PPP solely to put a body in front of the net that is a pain to move.
Although, one could also argue for putting Green and Fedorov on the points on the PP, Semin on the half-wall, Kozlov down low and Ovi in the crease, for much the same reason – Ovi’s not much smaller than Brash.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Actually can you tell me how you calculate that, only because the way I did it average ToI per game (in seconds) divided by number of points actually shows that Laich and Flash are better than Feds/Fehr.
It’s total TOI rather than TOI per game. Fedorov missed time with an injury and Fehr’s been a scratch ~20 times this year, so they’re behind the other two on total TOI.
When you agree with someone and Faux, you are not agreeing with “both” parties, you are agreeing with “all” parties. Faux is a “both” unto themselves, I think.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Ovechkin
I don’t know. Ovi’s been pretty dry lately. Semin’s been picking up some of the slack, as has Backstrom, but we need him and Green to both break out. (Semin, Green, and Ovechkin all hot at once? Holy moly but that would be nice.)
I think (read: hope) we’ll be all right as long as we come ready to play.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I don’t know if there is enough puck to go around for all those guys to be hot at once… All of them need to be shooting in order to be scoring. Though the idea of it does make me very excited.
I’d be perfectly happy with Steckel/Fehr/Flash/Laich potting 1 a game and knowing that the big guns would provide the rest. Most nights they would win going away.
Tonight is more of a benchmark game for me than Sunday. This one does have all of the trappings of a let down.
Coming off a big game
Playing a desperate team on their ice
Playing a western conference team they don’t care about
Ugh, hopefully Bruce’s chat with the guys yesterday will serve to motivate them.
Add another to your list:
@ Philly next on the schedule
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yes, it does.
I really hope the motivational chat is enough. Otherwise we’re in trouble, because Philly worries me.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Philly
i think they’re the only team in the east that we can’t beat consistently playing our system. they simply out hit, muscle, and agitate us. bad…
by ns on Mar 10, 2009 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions
They would certainly beat the hell out of one another. If NJ was playing either of those teams I’d be fine with that as well.
Alternatively, Philly and Carolina, although 100% agreed that a Philly/Pitt first round would be absolutely amazing for us, and the only regret would be that they can’t both lose.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I would rather enjoy the pleasure of taking out the Pens ourselves, preferably not in the first round. But I think it’s pretty clear that the one team we want no part of is Philly.
by Pivonka, Michael Ridley on Mar 10, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
From Tarik...
The universe may have just cut us a break, if it happens.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Up there with Tuukka Rask on the list of hockey players whose names could easily have been Star Wars characters.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
hot goal-ie [hot goh-lee]
1. n. whomever the Caps are facing on a given night lately
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
He may be a backup now
But Ellis started 44 games last year and led the league in SV%. I’m still not that enthusiastic about the change.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
53 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 61 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
56 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
53 | 23 | 24 | 6 | 52 |
|
Carolina
|
55 | 20 | 25 | 10 | 50 |
(updated 2.10.2012 at 9:27 AM EST)
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