Should the Caps Re-Sign Semin? Ask Again in June
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:00 AM EST
311 comments
Discussions on Alexander Semin's value are, not surprisingly given that he's a restricted free agent after this season, in vogue, from efforts to qualify whether or not he's the type of player you give a big-money, long-term extension, to questions of what exactly he's worth. These are valid question to raise, and certainly they can make for some interesting discussion, but unless you're considering a contract that vastly overvalues or undervalues Semin's contributions it's probably too early to know where to stand. Why? Because the key in determining whether or not it's in the Capitals best interest to re-sign Alexander Semin might be the 2010 playoffs.
Playoff performance is what this team is about right now, to the extent that it's virtually all that matters. The baubles and bangles of being the highest scoring team in the league, winning the President's Trophy, reaching fifty wins, and setting team records for performance are nice enough when they occur, but they should be the byproduct of the team's pursuit of the Cup rather than milestones given much relevance themselves. The Capitals are skilled enough, tough enough, balanced enough, and well-coached enough to get in to the playoffs, and, as long as they're not scrambling desperately to get in at the end of the regular season, should do well once there. And frankly, the Capitals don't need Alexander Semin to get themselves in a comfortable playoff position. Thus his value lies in how much more likely he makes it that the Caps take home the Stanley Cup, and right now that's something it's hard to get a read on.
Semin is a player with undeniable world-class skill. He can shoot, he can stickhandle, he can skate, he can pass, and most importantly he can do it against anyone in the world and he can do it well enough that he can win games - and potentially playoff series - all on his own. That the talent to help the Capitals win games in any situation is there isn't the issue. Rather, the ultimate concern is whether Semin has the mental focus to parlay those talents in to the kind of production he's capable of.
While this speculation may seem at first unfair, it's not without logic. Semin has been fairly inconsistent over the past few seasons and often when he's been inconsistent he's been not just ineffective, but downright bad, and has had a tendency to make avoidable mistakes - bad turnovers, bad pass-shot decisions, and bad penalties. For the most part these are mental mistakes and, given how keen Semin's hockey sense is when he's playing well, seem to suggest he's not full mentally invested in the game.
That's not to say Semin is a lazy player or doesn't care, because that's not the case. Semin has shown a willingness to do what it takes to win, even if it's unpleasant. He plays with poise in crowded areas around the net, he opens himself up to big hits to make plays, and he kills penalties effectively. Simply put, these are not things an indifferent player does. If focus is the driving force behind Semin's inconsistency, and Semin's a dominant player when he's focused, it puts his issues in a whole new light. It's also where the issue of the playoff comes in.
If Semin's drive to win takes over in the playoffs, if it's just the case that the grind of an 82 game regular season is what's causing him to lose focus and he's going to come out guns blazing when the chips are down, he's a player the Capitals need to lock up because he's the type of player who helps you win the Cup. If the root of Semin's inconsistency goes beyond that and the Caps aren't sure what they're going to get out of him on any given night, it's in their best interest to shuffle some assets and bring in more reliable players, because knowing what you have and don't have is essentially when you're figuring out what you need to get where you want to be.
Obviously we've seen Semin play playoff games up to this point in his career and, with the exception of last spring's Pittsburgh series where he was playing injured, we've seen him play well. That said, Semin's postseason performance to this point isn't enough to eliminate the worries his mistake-prone regular season games have given rise to.
Beyond that, the issue at this point isn't playing well, it's Semin being the dominant force he can be because at some point someone, either in North America or in Europe, will pay Semin based on his talent alone. Whether that someone should be the Capitals is going to depend on whether or not they can be confident that, come springtime, they're going to get the Alexander Semin capable of winning games for his team without the Alexander Semin who also loses them. If they can, the team - and their fans - should hope they're able to keep Semin in Washington.
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This topic is much debated, but the question that I have is if the Caps decide to let Semin go, where they turn to when it comes to replacing him? Against the better teams, its always great to know that if Ovi and Semin are on different lines, we have two players that can potentially take over the shift and get a goal when the team needs it most. Aside from Kovalchuk, what other options are there to give the Caps their secondary scoring? Can the Caps count on Fehr and Flash to continue progressing and be consistent 2nd line players?
by JimCareyFanClub on Dec 23, 2009 11:10 AM EST reply actions
Semin can’t just walk away. There are players and picks aplenty available in return for our snezhinka. And I don’t think NMCs or LMCs would be a problem – most players would like to play with AO.
ALEX, FЯEE
If he bolts for Russia and the Caps don’t win it all this year, they are out a young star with nothing to show for it. At the very least, offer him the amount of money that it costs where if a team wants to trump our RFA offer, they have to hand over a boat load of 1st round choices for him.
by JimCareyFanClub on Dec 23, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
It would suck to lose him to Russia, but part of me would rather see that happen than lose him to another team in the NHL. He has Cap killer written all over him.
I see your point, but if the Caps lose him for nothing, that’s an epic disaster.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Dec 23, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you. Like I said, only a part of me feels that way and its a small part. But man, I don’t want to be seeing him coming across the blueline against Juice and Erskine. Scary!
A bunch of first round picks and only having to see him once or twice a year (i.e. Western Conference… or in the Division, based on his durability (joke)) would make it easier.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Point of interest here, is it seems based on their practices that the KHL doesn’t seem to understand the RFA system, and feels they can poach RFA players. I believe that’s how they got Hudler from Detroit.
This one, and their position seems reasonable to me. RFA players are not under contract. The NHL’s RFA rules are designed for different (competitive balance/economic) purposes and don’t put an obligation on the players not to sign with other teams. After all, NHL RFAs can sign offer sheets with other teams in the NHL.
The Hudler situation is different due to Hudler filing for arbitration as apk3000 points out.
KHL understands the RFA system perfectly. But "contracts’ in Russia are enforced more by fiat than law, and the Russian state has taken a particular interest in its hockey players.
That was definitely Vlad Putin drinking champagne with Ovi and the rest of the Olympic squad this summer.
And any league whose commissioner has the last name of Medvedev and access to the Gazprom treasury is playing for keeps.
I regret not challenging Bettman about this at CapsCon when he gave the usual platitudes about how he wasn’t worried about KHL ’cos NHL has “the best hockey in the world”.
ALEX, FЯEE
No. North American contracts are enforced by crappy Italian cars. Russian contracts are enforced by … enforcers.
ALEX, FЯEE
I thought that in Russia, contracts enforce you.
"Let the rest be scared of us." - Emo Bunny Sasha Semin
by Scott in Shaw on Dec 23, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
Will his Olympic performance give us any clues? Or are the ’Lympics and the NHL playoffs two completely separate phenomena?
ALEX, FЯEE
I’d consider them two different animals, myself…
by IRockTheRed on Dec 23, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
I’d keep Backstrom and Green over Semin. I think that this year is now or never for the Caps while they still have everyone together.
Dallas Stars 4 Life: Stars Blogging From Hockeyville, Iowa
by Brad_Richards_Rocks on Dec 23, 2009 11:11 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Agreed. The Caps’ window certainly won’t close after this year, even if Semin bolts. But between having him here and the cap space to make a deadline acquisition or two, this may be their best chance to go all out for the Cup.
Disagree. When we have a real D corps and still have AO and Baxter then I think we’ll have a better shot than having Semin and 12 7th D.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 23, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
Alexander Semin is one of the most maddening players I have ever watched. He’s brilliant. Or he’s horrible. And it really does seem like there are two of him: one who is one of the best hockey players in the world; and the other who takes bad penalties, makes bad turnovers, and makes you want to scream, not in a good way.
It’s like he’s some sort of hockey Jeckyll and Hyde, or something…
Good Sasha, I’d sign in a heartbeat. Bad Sasha, though, might reduce Good Sasha’s value in the NHL, depending on which of the two weighs in heavier at the end of the season.
I’d like to see the rest of the season, first, though… and the post-season, which is a lot more important.
Penalties haven’t been a problem since his wrist got healthy. I don’t think he’s been in the box even once since he returned from injury.
ALEX, FЯEE
Penalties haven’t been a problem since his wrist got healthy.
Yeah, but they were last season. And the season before that. And the season before that.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
From 07-08 and 08-09 he took 35 penalties and drew 39 in 125 games. Doesn’t seem that awful.
Other interesting data point. in his last 108 games OV has taken 32 while drawing 40. Only marginally betterrate then Semin.
Look where he was on penalties taken per sixty last year.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
He was a minus 21 as far as penaties went, now that is a team killer, especially since half of them seemed like D.O.G. or of that terrible ilk.
To my eyes, he had just lost all of his agility. He was still a beautiful and fluid skater, but his ability to stop and start up again in the other direction was just gone, so he reached out with his stick and free hand in an attempt to not get beaten defensively. It made me want to tear my eyes out at times.
Still, we’ll always have game 7. :’)
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
And he lost that first step explosiveness. He could still skate beautifully when he was in full stride in open ice, but if he needed to cover 10-15 feet in two strides he was using his stick to do it.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 23, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
Barely above Knuble and OV :)
Last year was higher then his career numbers would indicate. I would say a minor every 3-4 games (when you are drawing at the same rate), is a nit pick.
Taking penalties as often as anyone in the league, especially when they’re often unnecessary, isn’t a nit pick to me, it’s a decent sized flaw.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
But last year was the only time Semin was “as often as anyone in the league”. More apt for the rest of his career would be top third of the league.
The last three years he does draw as often as anyone in the league. 1.6/1.4/1.5 vs. 1.2/1.5/1.2.
Its a point to be considered and I hear you that he needs to be better. But looking at the overall picture leads me to beleive that the Caps are actually gaining a 4-5 adv. every 15 games or so with Semin in the lineup. I can’t consider that a major fault.
I mean we’d love everyone to be Brads like in the penalty department but….
Also H/T to Behind the Net, I could be on there all day..
Its a point to be considered and I hear you that he needs to be better. But looking at the overall picture leads me to beleive that the Caps are actually gaining a 4-5 adv. every 15 games or so with Semin in the lineup. I can’t consider that a major fault.
I can. I mean, if a guy scores forty goals, that’s great. If his defense is so bad the other team scores thirty-five, that’s a major flaw in his game, even if the net is positive.
But I think the key with penalties isn’t so much their frequency as their tendency to crop up at bad times, in bad places of the ice, and when he’s having an otherwise mediocre game, which brings it back to the issue of focus.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
the key with penalties isn’t so much their frequency as their tendency to crop up at bad times, in bad places of the ice, and when he’s having an otherwise mediocre game
Agreed. He’s cut way back on how many penalties he’s taking since last year – now he needs to start limiting them to “good” penalties (or at least more acceptable, better timed penalties).
Okay I’ll concede the point of timing can be bad, but timing isn’t everything. See Schultz haters and Dubinsky’s goal, he’ll never live that down.
My overall point is If you are going to get into penalties you have to discuss the positive impact of 28’s skill set in drawing a TON of penalties as well. That isn’t a minor point in this discussion.
My less important take is If a taken penalty leads to a goal 20% of the time, 28’s penalties have lead to 7 goals(rounding up) for the opposition in the last 125 games he’s played. OTOH his drawing of penalties has lead to 9.8 goals for the caps, if you use the same 20% rule.
So even if his penalties are a problem (who doesn’t want him to cut down) it’s not such a big deal. Arguably his skill set is such that even in a weak area of his game he still brings net goals to the team.
Okay I’ll concede the point of timing can be bad, but timing isn’t everything. See Schultz haters and Dubinsky’s goal, he’ll never live that down.
And if Semin had taken an offensive zone or ill-timed penalty one time, people wouldn’t be concerned about it.
So even if his penalties are a problem (who doesn’t want him to cut down) it’s not such a big deal.
It is a big deal if it’s symptom of his general inconsistency because building around (and committing money to) an inconsistent player isn’t a good idea.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
And if Semin had taken an offensive zone or ill-timed penalty one time, people wouldn’t be concerned about it.
That’s my point. Everyone zeros in on the 8 or so real shitty penalties Semin takes of the course of a year, and uses that to try to bolster their wish to rid the caps of Semin.
It is a big deal if it’s symptom of his general inconsistency because building around (and committing money to) an inconsistent player isn’t a good idea.
And though its more sledgehammer like, Semin is so inconsistent he has points in 74 of his last 103 games (including playoffs).
A while back when talking about Semin and trade value Ryan Kessler’s name was bandied about, as a potential replacement (with other spare parts) so let’s use him as an example of replacement Penalties.
PTaken/60 last three years (including 09-10)
1.1/.8/1.2
About .3 better then Sasha the penalty machine, one minor every 10 games if 20:00 TOI/g.
“wish to rid the Caps of Semin”
Really?
Semin is so inconsistent he has points in 74 of his last 103 games (including playoffs).
Look at Semin’s points per game this season in games in which he has 2 or more points versus his points per game in games in which he has 0 or 1 point. It’s the very definition of inconsistent.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
"wish to rid the Caps of Semin"Really?
This gets thrown out a lot for some reason, but I cannot recall ever seeing anyone who thinks the Capitals should get rid of Semin, period, end of discussion. It’s possible it happened and I missed it, but I haven’t seen it.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Look at Semin’s points per game this season in games in which he has 2 or more points versus his points per game in games in which he has 0 or 1 point.
I did in a larger sample. 74 of his last 105 (including playoffs) he has a point…
Perhaps I’m reading too much into it, but there is a lot of hand wringing over “Sign/trade/Value of” about Semin that isn’t there for the other young guns. The title of this post is basically questioning wheather or not to re-up him.
Perhaps I’m reading too much into it, but there is a lot of hand wringing over "Sign/trade/Value of" about Semin that isn’t there for the other young guns.
Because it’s unsettled. Ovechkin’s locked up, Green’s locked up (and a different situation by virtue of his position), Backstrom’s a guy you need to lock up because of skill set and position, with Semin it’s not as clear.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
I get that. And I think recognized that the situation is unsettled.
I guess my support of the re-sign Semin campaign is that I believe that OV/Green/Backie/Semin is enough world class talent to win a cup. And world class talent is the hardest thing to acquire. The other ingredients are much easier to acquire.
Also I fret over the Caps not having another finisher. As much as I like the game of a lot of the secondary scorers, and some of the call up’s, I’ve seen nothing to indicate we have another true scorer in the wings. I’m not ready to replace Semin’s inconsistency with the inconsistency of the Flash Fehr combo.
You’re very focused on Semin’s penalties, but that point isn’t just that he takes them. It’s just an example of his inconsistency and his tendency to hurt the team with bad plays. Penalties are not the issue, they’re one of the symptoms of the issue.
But, still, he takes more bad penalties than most players, especially wings, and he’s been doing it for years. “Eight of so bad penalties each season” for three or four years is a world apart from one mistake getting magnified. It’s a decent number and it’s been a steady trend.
And though its more sledgehammer like, Semin is so inconsistent he has points in 74 of his last 103 games (including playoffs).
That’s aggregate. It doesn’t do anything to suggest he’s not a streak player.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
In 27 games this year, Semin has been a minus player in only three of them (none in which he’s had a multi-point game, but that would be expected), only ten of 62 last year. He’s improved quite a bit from the -7 and -18 marks he had his first two full years, and it speaks to the need for him to be on the ice as much as possible within the team’s strategy, not marking time in the penalty box.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Last year, Semin took eight minor penalties in five playoff games. The Caps’ record in those games: 1-4. The year before, he took a minor in each of the last four playoff games the Caps played. Their record in those games: 2-2. That’s six losses in nine games in which Semin took a penalty. Three of those losses came in overtime.
This isn’t to lay the Caps playoff problems over the last two years at Semin’s skates, but it is a mark of how important a cog he is that he can’t be a PIM-a-game player (24 penalty minutes in 21 career playoff games), even if he is a point-a-game player (22 points in 21 career playoff games). He’s got to be on the ice; he has to be more disciplined.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Dec 23, 2009 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Peerless research and analysis…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Last two years in the playoffs Green has 11 minor penalties in ten of the 21 games. The Caps are 3-7 in those games.
And he’s a defenseman, a position which inherently is more prone to taking penalties and for which taking penalties is somewhat expected.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Well that would hold water except that Poti and ShaMo combined have spent less time in the Box then Green.
26 PIM Poti/ShaMo to 27 for Green.
I’m having a hard time grasping your point. Is it that Green took more penalty minutes than Morrisonn and Poti? Because if so, that’s true, although misleading since Green had a fighting major, but it doesn’t have anything to do with the fact that the defense position, by its nature, puts guys in positions where they’re going to have to take penalties more often.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
Trying to get to apples to apples. The point is that Morrisonn and Poti are other top 4 Dmen, so if Dmen take more penalties by nature they should be in Mr. Green’s neighborhood. But they weren’t. Sure they had more then other forwards but compairing Green to other top 4’s Green still had a ton more.
Throw out the 5 minute major. Still 13 minors for Poti/ShaMo and 11 for Green.
If you’re trying to do that, you need a bigger sample size. But I don’t think you’d get too much resistance in saying Green takes too many penalties, because he does. It doesn’t really change anything when it comes to Semin.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
It doesn’t and it’s my own personal straw man. I just wanted to illustrate the fact that it’s taken for granted that Greenie should be locked up (and maybe it’s just because he actually is) but Semin still get some resistance.
Green, AO, and Baxter are all the best player on the team at their position. Semin isn’t. Like it or lump it, that’s important. You have to lock up Green and try to get him to grow out of his deficiencies (and looking at his age and the nature of D in the NHL, it’s likely). Semin is not as essential, and his age makes it much less likely that he grows out of his problems.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 23, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
While I generally agree with your point – that we should use averages and statistics to overcome biases based on salient events – you’ve got to find a better comparable in this instance than Green, for the reasons noted by J.P. above.
Also, I think the portion of the argument you’re missing is that DMG is not saying, “let’s get rid of Semin,” he’s saying, “let’s see how Semin performs in the playoffs before deciding what to do with him.”
Still, I think we all agree with your overall point – despite his maddening inconsistency, Semin’s still a decidedly net positive player. The question is, is that net positive (distributed inconsistently) worth enough to justify what would likely be a big chunk of the Caps’ remaining salary cap space? What if he displays the same inconsistency during a playoff series?
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
The Green comparison does have some merit, and if the Caps had a better version of him on the blue line, I’d be wondering whether Green was worth a long-term contract. The Caps have Ovechkin, perhaps a less purely talented (in offensive skills), but more effective player. They can cobble together Semin’s production from Fehr and Fleischmann (he said, hopefully). There is no substitute for Green, who occupies a role that has great importance in the style of play this team chooses to play.
If you've read this far...seek help.
There is no substitute for Green, period. The guy is currently the best offensive defenseman in the league. He put up more points (in fewer games) than Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews last year, and he’s getting paid about $750k less per year.
He skates about 25 minutes per night. Despite his occasional defensive gaffes, he’s still an effective defenseman. Moreover, he’s only 24 – the gaffes will go down with experience. Even Niedermayer and Lidstrom made mistakes at 24.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
by D'ohboy on Dec 23, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Another point of relevance I think about is the team identity/character.
The big name/big contract/big minutes guys are a big part of establishing team character. Do we skate hard and remain focused for 60 minutes. When up big? When down big? In garbage time? On icings?
Short term the Caps may or may not win a cup with player x or player y, but player x and player y together (along with everybody else) do help to establish how the team is viewed and how the team/players views themselves over an extended period.
That can have more of a long-term effect on a team.
That is true. But the turnovers do still happen.
Of course, Ovechkin and Green both commit turnovers a lot, too. It’s the high risk/high reward style of playing that they both do…
by IRockTheRed on Dec 23, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
While he is a two-faced kind of player, guys with his skills don’t exactly grow on trees. He’s still young and it’s not like he’s 30 and signing his last big contract. While taking bad penalties and being inconsistent concerns me, I’m more worried about handing a lengthy contract to a notoriously fragile guy. Semin is a crazy-talented guy, and people on this same site have even debated whether or not he is more talented than Ovi. Get the guy signed, but GMGM CANNOT lose him for nothing in return.
by JimCareyFanClub on Dec 23, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Personally, I’m all for re-signing Semin. His performance this playoff year will obviously be a huge factor, but IMO a guy that can produce over a point-per-game in the playoffs is worth locking up.
"Oh, the usual. I bowl. Drive around. The occasional acid flashback."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Dec 23, 2009 11:18 AM EST reply actions
Book it, Semin will be resigned. He’s a generational talent and unless they figure out he wants to go back to Russia, he will be a Capital.
He’s a generational talent
No, he’s not.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I disagree. The complete package isn’t generational, but his talent certainly is.
"Oh, the usual. I bowl. Drive around. The occasional acid flashback."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Dec 23, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
If his talent were generational he’d be by far and away the more skilled player in the NHL. He may be the most skilled player in the NHL, and he’s certainly on the shortlist, but he’s by no means running away with it.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Not so sure. We’ve had this argument before, but when he’s on his game, he’s unbeatable.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but you want to spend upwards of $6m on dealing with when he’s not?
"After the Cold War, the AK-47 became Russia's biggest export. After that came vodka, caviar, and suicidal novelists (and a couple good hockey players)."
by Bald Pollack on Dec 23, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
As much as it pains me to say it, he, in his current state, is not worth $6m, and I don’t think GMGM thinks he is, either.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
If his current state is tweaked, I can see what you’re saying.
Considering he’s had a couple of quietly decent playoffs (even with one bad wrist), I’d say it’s his work from now to March that could impact the design to re-up him.
"After the Cold War, the AK-47 became Russia's biggest export. After that came vodka, caviar, and suicidal novelists (and a couple good hockey players)."
by Bald Pollack on Dec 23, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
By that criteria, neither Ovechkin nor Crosby are generational talents because neither is clearly the most talented player in the league.
"Oh, the usual. I bowl. Drive around. The occasional acid flashback."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Dec 23, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
But what about the most exciting player in the league?
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 23, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
Who’s the most ergonomic player in the league?
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 23, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
Jizz, of course, he slithers through so much.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Fuck me, i totally read that as aerodynamic.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Not true. I think you can make the case for Ovechkin because he’s so far above everyone else in goal scoring. With Crosby, great as he is, I agree. The term “generational” is thrown around way too much – it’s supposed to mean “once in a generation” is it not? Sasha’s got a ton of skill, but I don’t think it’ll be twenty years until we see someone at the same level.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
Wow, were we watching each other type?
by JimCareyFanClub on Dec 23, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
Could that be due to the growth of the game? More, better players than ever before? I’d argue “generational talents” as Crosby, AO, and Malkin, even though I’d consider Semin the most talented.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
How can Crosby, Ovechkin, and Malkin be “generational talents” when they’re three guys taken in the course of two years in the draft?
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe he’s thinking of Shawn Kemp, who is a gestational talent?
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 23, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
No, he was an inseminational talent.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
by D'ohboy on Dec 23, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
When I’ve seen the term used it’s as a short hand way of saying “once in a generation” and when you’re got three guys in two years it’s hard to apply that label (unless you get more specific, like referring to Ovechkin purely in terms of goal scoring or combination of offensive ability and physicality).
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Don't Tell that to the NBA
They had two generational talents in Magic and Bird. And like them, the NHL has two in Ovechkin and Crosby, playing in the same conference. Lucky them.
I don’t even know about Bird or Johnson being generational talents. There were better shooters than both in NBA history (Johnson was an especially mediocre shooter early in his NBA career), there were better assist men than both, there were better rebounders, better defenders. Few, though had the combination of skills that each of them had, and Johnson was a freak for being a 6’8" point guard. They were the generational “players” of that generation, if not necessarily generational in terms of skill. Those two might have had the most basketball “smarts” of any two players in NBA history.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Yeah, I more meant for their individual contributions, we aren’t likely to see them again in single players for another generation. And by that definition, I’d probably have to take Malkin off the list. Perhaps even Crosby: no one in the league scores goals like or at the rate of Ovechkin, but there are plenty of point producers, like Crosby.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
I think we’ll have to see on Crosby. Certainly what he’s done at his age is impressive, but he’s just not there yet to me.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Crosby is a strange duck in one important respect. He never seemed to have his “immature” years, the ones where he puts up ungodly numbers, but his team doesn’t do much. Crosby seems to have been born into the league a 30-year old, and here is why. He has improved an aspect of his game in each step in his career. His first year, he whined too much…he cut back on that. His second year, he was weak on faceoffs…he improved on that. His third year, he had to deal with injuries… he hasn’t shown any ill effects. His fourth year, he wasn’t enough of a goal scorer…he took care of that in the playoffs and has picked up this year where he left off. In that respect, he’s already “Steve Yzerman” at 32 (when he had 69 points, but the Wings won a Stanley Cup) without ever having been “Steve Yzerman” at 23 (when he had 155 points, but the Wings were a .500 team). I think Crosby is extremely underrated in that respect.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Crosby, to me, is a “generational talent” in that he can do whatever he wants or needs to on the ice sheet. In other words, he is not limited by his abilities, frame, size, skating, or whatever. He has tremendous hands, tremendous skating, vision, sense, stickhandling, etc. He plays defense.
There just haven’t been many guys in the NHL that fit into that category.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
a "generational talent" [is someone that] can do whatever he wants or needs to on the ice sheet [regardless of his deficiencies].
I would like to promote that definition, because I feel that applies to all of the names that we’ve thus far posited (Gretz, Lem, Orr, Cros, AO, etc.).
There are games where Semin shows that, and Malkin shows that more than Semin, but not nearly as often as AO and Crosby do.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
Semin is a potentially great player, but “generational” implies “one-of-a-kind” talent. There will be only one Hull, Howe, Gretzky. There will be other Semins, just not too many. Even if he fullfills his potential, he’s on the second tier, with Jagr in his prime. That’s not a bad place to be.
Semin would have a damn hard time reaching the Jagr-in-his-prime tier, IMO.
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by J.P. on Dec 23, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I have to agree. As much as I think of Semin’s skill set, I don’t see any way he leads the NHL in scoring four years in a row.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
And he’ll never, ever be able to have a mullet like JJ’s – top tier all the way.
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Here is who Semin could compare to by the time his career is over, statistically, at least — Yvan Counoyer.
If Semin plays 1,000 games in his career (a bit of a stretch, since at the 67 games/season pace he’s been on the last three years would require at least ten more seasons) and maintains his current pace of scoring, he’d finish 438-434-872. Cournoyer was 428-435-463 in 968 career games.
The difference, of course, is that Cournoyer played on some of the greatest teams in the history of the sport. But he was a great talent that was not the top talent on his own team (his career overlapped nine years with Guy Lafleur), much as Semin is.
Oh, and one other difference — Cournoyer almost never took penalties (only once in his career over 40 PIMS)
If you've read this far...seek help.
Sasha is not "once in a generation"
Because Alexei Kovalev is still in the league. Maybe “half-generational” is more accurate.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 23, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
No, he’s not. He’s not a once-in-a-generation or a one-every-ten-years talent. He’s not at the talent level of Orr or Gretzky or Howe.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
“Generational Talent” is a label that’s being thrown around WAY too loosely if we are putting Alex Semin in that category. The reason why Crosby and Ovechkin are labeled as such is that they bring it night in and night out. Semin, while very talented, is NOT a “Generational Talent.” When speaking of Generational Talents, think Gretzky, Lemieux, Bossy, Orr.
by JimCareyFanClub on Dec 23, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Are you sure it’s not done with you?
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by J.P. on Dec 23, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly. “Generational talent” means someone you see only once in, well, a generation. I’d think of that as twenty years, and I suppose you could put it at eight or ten in terms of hockey generations. Semin’s not at that level.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
but do you think he has the abiltiy to be there if he came out and played like he does half the time, every night?
No. I think if he did that he’d be among the games elite goal scorers and offensive producers, but I don’t think he would be head and shoulders the best player in the league.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
If he did it every night, he’d be Datsyuk with a bit more goal-scoring upside and a bit less defensive ability, which is to say a great player, but not a “generational talent.”
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Depends how strict you are. If you limit it to, literally, once in specific generation, yes. But if you use the “we can’t expect to see a player like that for another eight or ten years”, then no.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
What about a generational talent based on type? Gretzky was a once-in-a-generation talent as a scorer…Lemieux had other stuff that I suppose he was good at, too.
By extension, you could consider Ovechkin and Crosby to both be generational talents because Crosby has the potential to be one of the game’s great playmaking centers, while Ovie is a brand all his own, not likely to be seen again anytime soon.
…just my two pennies ;)
Absolutely. Crosby, no matter what he does, is not going to be a once-in-a-generation goals scorer (or at least, he’d have to get a lot better), but he could be a once-in-a-generation playmaker.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
I think we’re getting hung up on semintics, err, semantics.
Point being, Alex Semin is not one of the top few best players in hockey now, despite his skillset.
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I agree, on both counts. It’s kind of an interesting exercise, but I can’t think of any reasonable definition of “generational talent” that includes Semin.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
FWIW, I’d have Jagr on my “generational talent” list.
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I just read through the comments and they seem surprisingly martyr-free so far. What gives?
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 23, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Don’t get me wrong, I always appreciate a good pun. I just woke up late and was surprised at the lack of martyrdom in this thread.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 23, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
I agree. Maybe it’s below, or maybe K_C got them to shoot their… uh… jizz when he got them riled up the other night.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 23, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
Wait, let me put on the martyr mantle. There . . . all ready. Whew! Lots to read. The bottom line: I don’t disagree with a lot that was said. Not going to get into the "generational " thing; not really important here.
However, he is a tremendous talent we should keep; all of the reasons have been stated. For any price? No, but a fair price will be what the Caps and Semin can agree on. If they can’t, then it’s in the best interests of both to part ways. I would be sad. :( The chemistry we have on the team, that line particularly, is hard to reproduce. Players are not interchangeable parts or commodities.
Semin takes a disproportionate amount of criticism when looking at the totality of other players’ gaffes, gifts, and contributions. Not sure why, but I believe it’s related to his remoteness. Objective criticism is fine, but more often with Semin than with other players, it has a sharp edge. I can recognize as well as anyone when he is not playing at the level we expect.
It can be an interesting (if maddening) exercise to speculate about his future with the Caps, but it’s ultimately futile. I would rather just watch him play, which I will do tonight.
Let’’s check back in June.
I generally agree, but I don’t think it is impossible to label both Crosby and Ovechkin generational talents. To me, the term applies to a player who has the kind of talent that normally only comes along every decade or so. That doesn’t necessarily mean that you can have an outlier generation in which two of those types of talents come along (or when you don’t have any of those types of players). To me the term corresponds to an exceptionally rare skill set, not just the best player of each generation.
I still don’t think that Semin or even Malkin are generational talents though.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Dec 23, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
Here is the clearest difference between “generational talent” and “generational player” I can think of. In basketball, Michael Jordan was a “generational talent.” Bill Russell was a “generational player.” Ovechkin is the talent, Crosby is the player (in this generation… so far). There is no one else in this discussion in the NHL at the moment — not Semin, not Malkin, not Tavares, not Hedman, no one.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Roy, Brodeur and Hasek were all “generational” goalies. We had three at one time. Ain’t been one like them since, and there were damned few like them before.
Gordie Howe: generational. Bobby Orr. Gretzky. Lemieux. Those are the easy ones.
I think it gets tougher with the Canadiens, like Richard, Richard, Lafleur, Robinson, Plante and Dryden. Or with the Hawks – Hull and Mikita and Esposito. Or the other 1980s Oilers – Messier, Coffey, Fuhr. How much was individual skill, and how much was being on the right team at the right time?
Think Guy Lafleur was a generational talent? First overall pick, set a bunch of records, won some Cups and MVPs – must be generational, right? Well, in 1971, the Canadiens drafted Lafleur #1 overall, and the Wings drafted Marcel Dionne #2. Dionne went on to score 1771 points; Lafleur 1353. But Lafleur is considered “generational,” and Dionne is forgotten. What if they had been reversed, and Dionne had ended up with the Habs? What if Dionne had played with the likes of Lemaire and Robinson and was coached by Bowman? Wouldn’t Dionne be the superstar remembered for years afterwards?
How about guys more of us remember? Is Ron Francis generational? Ray Bourque? Joe Sakic? Peter Forsberg? Jagr? Larry Murphy? Scott Stevens? Dale Hunter?
Yzerman is iconic, but was he generational? He certainly holds a different place in hockey history than anyone else I’ve ever heard of. But is it enough to be unique?
Rod Langway was a remarkable defensive specialist, the likes of which ain’t been seen since. But was he even the best defenseman of his generation? How can someone be generational without a fully rounded game?
I’ve got no problem saying Ovechkin is generational. Crosby too. Malkin, not so much — at least not yet. And Semin? No fucking way. There’s nothing wrong with saying that the Peter Bondras of the world; the Marcel Dionnes; the Adam Oateses; the Dougie Gilmours were not generational. They were damned good. Damned good. (Semin has a ways to go to match any of those luminaries) But were they generational?
No. They were the “ordinary” league leaders you expect. You can always count on there being one or two Jarome Iginlas, Joe Thorntons, and Ilya Kovalchuks out there. It’s part of what makes hockey great. If Semin makes it to “ordinary superstar” level, I’ll be amazed and thrilled. But for now, that’s his ceiling. And Green’s ceiling. And Backstrom’s ceiling. And Varlamov’s ceiling. And Alzner’s ceiling. And Carlson’s ceiling. On the Caps, only Ovechkin is eligible for “generational.” And there’s nothing wrong with that.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 24, 2009 1:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Great take. Dale Hunter is perhaps the most “generational” of the borderline players you mentioned. Sure, he wasn’t the best, but he’s the only guy in the 1000/3000 club, in any generation. We won’t see that happen any time soon, if ever.
The only other thing I’d dispute is that Green can’t be generational. If Paul Coffey was generational (which you didn’t really weigh in on) then Green could be. Green could put up 40 goals as a D, and I wouldn’t completely rule out 50 for him. I also wouldn’t count Malkin out.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 24, 2009 1:26 AM EST up reply actions
In my lifetime, Gretzky, Lemieux, and Roy/Brodeur/Hasek have been generational. Ovechkin and Crosby are now.
I’m 31. That’s seven players. It’s enough.
Coffey ain’t generational. Bobby Orr was. There ain’t been a generational defenseman since Orr. Not Coffey, not Bourque, not Lidstrom. They were all phenomenal. But they were “ordinary superstars.” None of them changed the game.
By the way, I don’t have a problem with saying that generational players come in bunches, or that the ones playing at the same time often play the same position. And I can’t wait to see the defensemen when they take over the game. It’ll come someday. But not soon.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 24, 2009 1:34 AM EST up reply actions
I disagree that Lidstrom isn’t generational. The guy dominated the Norris Trophy for close to a decade. There is a good argument for Bourque too, although I don’t feel as strongly about him.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Dec 24, 2009 2:16 AM EST up reply actions
Dale Hunter is perhaps the most "generational" of the borderline players you mentioned. Sure, he wasn’t the best, but he’s the only guy in the 1000/3000 club, in any generation. We won’t see that happen any time soon, if ever.
Unique shit happens all the time. It’s not enough for me to use the “once in a generation” tag. Ron Hextall was pretty damned unique, in terms of aggressiveness. But it’s not like he’s one of the greatest goalies ever. Zdeno Chara is a pretty special blend of size and power. Chris Pronger is unique too — that’ asshole’s going to be a legend. Doesn’t make them generational.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 24, 2009 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
(Gould Old Days is drunk)
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 24, 2009 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
That’s all fine. This argument is extremely subjective and just becomes hair-splitting upon hair-splitting. I’m just saying that if there’s one guy you won’t see again, it’s Dale Hunter.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 24, 2009 1:43 AM EST up reply actions
Our biggest competitor with regards to resigning Semin is the KHL. If he is asking for too much – we should try and trade him by the deadline for a hefty ransom (not for a bag of pucks but for a top shelf trade – maybe steal Kovalchuk for Semin and a few other folks – I know I’m dreaming – but my point is he shouldn’t be traded for NOTHING)
If GMGM thinks he can be kept for a reasonable cost that will not handcuff us in the long run, yeah resign him.
ATL won’t accept Semin for Kovy. This isn’t a talent argument, its just that if they can’t sign Kovy, who has openly admitted he WANTS to stay in ATL and the NHL, then why bother taking a player who will more than likely bolt to the KHL. They will want high picks and great prospects that can grow with the team.
if its determined he’s a 5m a year player keep him…if it gets much higher than 7 i’d look to see what we could get in return…
would love to swap him straight up for kovalchuk (assuming we could afford to resign him)
Donny-waddle is slow, but he’s not that slow. I think.
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Give them a goalie, they’ll take the deal.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
I thought Pavelec was their goalie of the future now that Leht-‘em-in isn’t.
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He’s been stinking up the joint lately. Hedberg was giving him a run for his money for a while.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
I heard Pavs has been a lot better than his numbers. But whatevs… eff them.
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Lehtonen is the Alexander Semin of goaltenders — a remarkable talent when he’s on, but he’s inconsistent and has durability issues.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Dec 23, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And you wouldn’t DiPietro Lehtonen, would you?
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I can’t see them giving up Kovy either. Right now they’re only 1 point behind Boston for 5th in the conference. They’re a good team.
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 23, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
A lot of folks think they might not be able to sign him.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
But why sabotage a playoff run in the middle of the season? They have a lot of talent and 8 million in cap space. I mean, if they’re out of it by the deadline (which I don’t see happening), then I would say make the deal, but I think they should be big time buyers at the deadline, especially with that amount of cap space.
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 23, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
They’re in the same situation as the Caps with Semin, but on a larger scale. If you can’t sign him, you gotta move him for replacement parts. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Kovy means more to the team than Semin does to the Caps.. so they might have to choose between playoff run or getting something for Kovy.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Or hold him hoping that the team makes it to the playoffs, wins a round, and shows enough to get him to re-sign. The issue with Kovy is whether he thinks he can in Atlanta.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
The ol’ Jay Bowmaster move.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 23, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe he likes Atlanta and will sign there?
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 23, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Slightly different, though, in that Semin is an RFA, so the Caps can’t potentially lose him (w/in the NHL) for nothing.
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Why you gotta make jokes about his name?
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 23, 2009 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
I joke – jape, if you wil. It’s what I do.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
… to the North American media.
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And I’m not sure he can really be blamed for that after last year’s “Crosby = dead wood” comments?
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Dec 23, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Is it possible that Semin is just plain stupid, uneducated? How long does it take to pick up enough basic English to hold a simple conversation? Or how about overly image conscious – too embarrassed to look stupid, might adversely effect the amount of tang he gets?
Yes, I have heard reports of that. But speak English != to comfort in conversational English. I can read and speak Italian, but can’t hold a conversation worth a damn and would be embarrassed to try. For me, I just never practiced enough conversation for Italian to roll off the tongue naturally, without having to translate to/from English in my head.
He can speak English well enough to hold a conversation.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
I can guarantee he’s less stupid than this comment.
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by J.P. on Dec 23, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sorry – that was far harsher than necessary. Apologies, renhoak.
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No, that’s OK, I think I deserved it. If I was going to attack Semin’s intelligence, I should have bothered to look up his educational background first to see if it was warranted. The image conscious / tang thing was a poor attempt to be funny. Sorry to have offended, will certainly try be more careful and less stupid in future comments.
Even if he performs well in the playoffs, do you invest so much of your cap space on 3 forwards?
I am not sold on that approach, especially considering how unsettled the D-corp is in the near future.
Agreed, though the D’s potential big money guys (other than 52) are young enough that you can kick the can down the road a bit with guys like Alzner and Carlson.
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Not only that, but I don’t see Alzner at Green money quite yet, given his impact will be more Schultz in nature. He should be downright affordable, comparably, than Green was.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
Yep – the beauty of a guy whose numbers aren’t eye-popping.
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The only problem with Alzner is his draft slot, which determined his salary ($1.675m). It’s rare for guys Alzner’s age to see their salary go down, so even if he doesn’t put up tremendous stats, he’s likely at least a 1.75-2m/year player going forward. Affordable, but not super-cheap.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
His salary’s only $875,000, the high cap hit is from his bonus.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but he gets all that because of the draft slot, whereas Carlson doesn’t. I’d be shocked if his cap hit after this contract isn’t in the $1.75-2m range.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
Which is still half of Green, which is great.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
So we have 4 D for the cost of 2 Greens. I’ll take that.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
I think you’re being silly, but that’s exactly the problem the Caps have right now – too many 4-7 guys who derive their worth from being cheap, rather than simply being good. Ideally, the Caps would spend big money on 3-4 guys and fill in the rest with youngsters and journeymen. Seems to work for Detroit, Pitts, Anaheim in 06-07, Boston… yadda, yadda, yadda.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
I was being slightly silly, but with Green, Schultz, Alzner, Carlson as my Top 4, paying 10m for the package doesn’t seem like a bad deal.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
I’d personally like to see him get a 1-2 year deal and go from there.
"Oh, the usual. I bowl. Drive around. The occasional acid flashback."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Dec 23, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
“Last-minute one-year deal” is what I’m on record as predicting, FWIW.
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Probably a good call. Were I GMGM, I’d be nervous signing a guy like Semin to a long deal.
"Oh, the usual. I bowl. Drive around. The occasional acid flashback."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Dec 23, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
Wow, I could never see the Semin camp going for a one-year deal so early in his career, especially if he likes playing here. If the Caps won’t pay him now, I would think they’ll never pay him, and if you’re Semin, why wait to get paid. An offer sheet for Semin would be very very tempting for many GMs.
I could if he wants to stay in the NHL. But then again, if he wants to stay in the NHL, he won’t use leaving for the KHL as a serious negotiating tactic. As for the Caps, what more in 1 year will Alex Semin show that he hasn’t already? If 3-4 years/6.5 mil doesn’t get it wrapped up, cut him loose.
by JimCareyFanClub on Dec 23, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
well having the space to pay him is the current thing, not the team not wanting to pay him. right now the caps are low on cap space for forwards, with other needs to fill. I think he deserves 5-6, and that’s what he’ll get and he’ll be in a caps sweater for a few more years.
One year deal is just a bridge to his UFA summer, when he’ll really get paid. I think that’d be alright by him.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 24, 2009 1:21 AM EST up reply actions
You think he’ll be offered 6m/year, or you think he’ll ask for $6m/year?
I don’t think he’s gonna get $6m a year outside of the K, where he’ll make $9m.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
I think he could absolutely get $6m/year in the NHL.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
I figure somewhere about that range. He’s got similar stats to Mike Richards this year and that’s what Richards earns (with MR only 9 months younger).
Hopefully, the draw of playing with Ovi and Backstrom and company will keep him here, especially given that he’s one of Ovi’s best friends.
Rocking the Red since 1975
I don’t think Richards is a comparable given when his contract was signed and how different the guys’ roles are.
by David M. Getz on Dec 24, 2009 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
My understanding is that the KHL salary cap is about $21M USD (subject to changes in exchange rate of course). Or did you mean equivalent given the tax structures in Russia?
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
The fire-at-will, your-contract’s-not-worth-the-paper-its-printed-on-if-we-change-our-minds KHL?
Sasha will also get tax-free livin’ and a nice dacha out of a KHL deal.
ALEX, FЯEE
You got me, again – I mean equivalent. I see him getting at least a Jagr deal over in the K.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
That might be hard to swing. The KHL’s hurting financially right now, from what I understand.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
I think it would take close to a Jagr deal to get him back to Russia. I think he enjoys playing in the best league, and would feel the dip in competition if he left.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
i think those will be the terms he signs for, if it that actually happens
by ns on Dec 23, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
Pat Kane's new deal is a nice marker
Kane is just as explosive and can take over games by himself, but I personally think Semin is a half step better overall. 6.5 over 4 or 5 years seems about right, but who the hell knows what the kid really values?
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Damnit
Linguo IS dead.
your argument is that…
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
by D'ohboy on Dec 23, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec’d for a well placed Linguo reference.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Dec 23, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
But Semin would be giving up a lot more UFA years than Kane if he signed the same deal. Don’t undervalue that.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I’d walk away from that deal.
In an ideal world all ten fingers would be on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
by Fehr and Balanced on Dec 23, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
I would say do whatever it takes to keep him. One thing that he has shown is the ability to step in and be the guy when Ovie is having an off night or is out of the lineup.
Hmmm. There are four games of suckitude earlier this year that would like to disagree with you.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
In his defense, he probably wasn’t 100% healthy.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
But therein lies the rub. Do you want to commit big $$$ to a guy who can’t stay out of the trainer’s room?
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
It depends on what he does when the chips are down. I can put up with “Sasha being Sasha” for 82 games if he’s at his very best for the following 4-28 each season.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Dec 23, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Rec’d for re-enforcing the point I’d hoped to make.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
And let’s not forget, Semin is not only a scorer, he is an enforcer…
You need that kind of sandpaper in the playoffs.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Dec 23, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I completely disagree. We need him playing his best during those 82 games so we can win the President’s trophy.
A man gotta have a code
Glad to see you’ve got your priorities right in line ;-).
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Well, given his past history we know he’ll stay healthy and bring his A game for the first 7 games of the playoffs.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Dec 23, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
It was a wrist. That prolly got slashed. Don’t know how you keep that out of the trainers room.
ALEX, FЯEE
And I think he also had a round of the flu, either swine or garden variety. Dunno what you can do about that, other than get the vaccine, wash your hands, and hope for the best.
ALEX, FЯEE
Right. And a back. And an ankle. And…
Point being, durability is not his strong suit. Bad luck? Maybe. Bad conditioning? Possibly. Lack of desire to play through minor nicks? Perhaps.
One thing we do know, however, is that it has seemed to frustrate his coach at times, so I’m not sure it’s entirely unavoidable stuff that other guys don’t play through. At times.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Might just be genetic.
Sincerely,
M. Gaborik
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 24, 2009 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
I just think that without Sasha the Capitals become too much of a one line team and if an opposing teams D can shut down Ovie the Caps are doomed.
Of course, adding a player in Semin’s place is an option too.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Injuries and the League shut down Ovie for 8 games and the team wasn’t doomed, and it wasn’t all Semin carrying the water either.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
The main problem I have with Semin right now is that he seemingly needs to play with Ovie to be maximally effective. He almost seems to pout when he’s not paired with Ovie and Backis.
If we can’t split up Ovie and Semin, even occasionally, that severely detracts from his worth.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
I’d say it severely detracts from the team’s offer for his services, and that can be good or bad. He could either feel lowballed, or take a paycut to stay with AO.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
I would say do whatever it takes to keep him.
Regardless of what he does in the playoffs?
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, he does, but the issue is how often he is a game changer and why he isn’t that type of presence more often. If you can isolate it (he loses focus in the grind, but will be up for the playoffs), it’s a non-issue. If it’s just a random thing, you’re essentially rolling the dice in the playoffs, when you could be going forward with a concrete idea of what you have.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
i think arguing the playoffs is bad practice, simply because we have a dominating performance against the Flyers and an injured Rags/Pitt, and he really wasn’t awful last year – he was clearly hurt (hindsight, obviously). Same with Green.
When healthy, they both played extremely well.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t understand. I’m not arguing for or against giving Semin any type of contract based on past playoff performance, I’m saying that we don’t know whether his inconsistency is still going to be an issue in the playoffs and that makes it hard to determine his value.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
I think I flubbed my argument a bit. I think I was arguing against the random-we-don’t-know-what-we’re-gonna-get idea by talking about his playoffs, where he performed well when not hurt. And he has performed well consistently (there’s a reason we all pine for the 28-19-21 line at times) in the playoffs.
So, having wasted that paragraph and my previous comment, I’m for your “non-issue” option you put out there.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
I still don’t think we know. He’s played well, but not for a long enough time period that I’m comfortable assuming he’ll show up game in and game out in the spring.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
Keeps coming back to the question I asked in the last Sasha Semin post: How do you hold a moonbeam in your hand?
ALEX, FЯEE
I third that. Great stuff.
"So much on my mind I just can't recline. Blastin' holes in the night 'til she bled sunshine."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Dec 23, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
Another thing that’s slightly off topic (sorry, D) but related – if the Caps are considering not re-signing Semin, they probably won’t trade Fehr or Flash at the deadline, as those guys would be relied upon more going forward.
Obviously you’d hope to replace some of Semin’s scoring with an import, but replacing Semin’s and one of those other two’s scoring becomes a pretty big task to undertake in free agency or via trade.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Which is one reason why determining the sustainability of Flash’s and Fehr’s performances weighs into this debate somewhat as well. (Short answer, their performance isn’t sustainable, at least not at the current rate.)
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
If you’re referring to Flash’s S%, agreed. But their roles would be different on a Semin-less team.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Good. I’ve been waiting for Boudreau to see the light and give Flash some more ice time.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Fehr’s as well. I think there are too many independent variables here to really control for what might happen to both of them if Semin were to leave. Namely:
Their PP time would go up, which would increase their offensive stats.
However, they’d no longer be able to “hide” behind the first line. Every time last year that Flash and Fehr stepped up to play with the top line, the results were less than impressive. I think both of them, but Flash in particular, thrive on playing under the radar somewhat, which doesn’t necessarily bode well for their future playoff performances.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
But they wouldn’t be expected to be top line guys next year – 8-19-22 will still be around. Second line at most. But I hear you – it does assume a bit of continued development.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Agreed, but 8-19-22 has been pretty mediocre this year compared to the SOB line, and Knuble just seems to “fit” better on a second or third line. In particular, I don’t think he’s got the legs to skate the 1min+ shifts that Ovie and Backis sometimes are wont to take.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
Disagree – Knuble’s killing it for me in NHL10 playing with those two.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Knuckles is too slow in my NHL 10. Can’t keep up, and the AI is awful – he doesn’t crash the net for shit!
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
just traded for Laich and Steckel in my Be A GM Mode team. now have 3 Cappies….
and no f’n player crashes the net correctly or, what really drives me nuts, takes advantage of an odd man break. argh.
by ns on Dec 23, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
It’s like watching a sci-fi movie.. you just have to suspend disbelief.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
word. still get lots of enjoyment out of it though.
by ns on Dec 23, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
One thing that I hate above all things is when you’re breaking out of the zone and they’re not bothering to skate forward to receive a pass. That irks the shit out of me.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
absolutely. even if you set breakout to “aggressive” or whatever the term they use for rush the hell up the ice ASAP
by ns on Dec 23, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
they’re only really in question because both Ovie and Semin have spent some substantial time off ice thus far this season. The caps have a lot of skilled guys, but those 3rd line guys don’t get a lot of ice time with Ovie trying to play 30 mins a game.
I think they have been doing well because when 8 and 21 went down they got more ice time and were able to show whats up. They continue to do well because Bodreau and Ovie feel more comfortable letting others play in those high stress situations. Bodreau has said it of Ovie to aprox quote “all that time Ovie was out he was able to see the guys really prosper so that now anytime we are down 2-1 2-0 he doesn’t feel like ‘I have to go out there and do something because only I can’”
I think Bods has been playing the lines a little more evenly which is why we continue to see Fehr and Flash doing pretty good. Flash could easily be a 20 goal scorer this season. Last season the 20+ club included the usual suspects and Laich. Though flash was at 19.
But all that said I don’t think some 3rd line guys really have an affect on what happens with Semin, unless the caps are trying to trade Semin+F to another team.
People are stupid, a person is smart. This leads me to believe there must be at least one smart hockey fan in Philly.
I’m not really sure what your point is, so I’ll make mine explicit: Flash and Fehr have both been getting “lucky” this season with regard to the percentage of shots they’ve taken that have been goals. Given their career averages for shooting percentage, it’s safe to assume that their scoring will decrease relative to their current pace.
If we remove Semin, one or both players will likely get more PP ice time, thereby increasing both the number of shots they take, and their shooting percentage (which goes up across the board on the PP). However, given their past tendency to “disappear” when placed on the top line alongside Ovie and Backis, I think it’s difficult to reach any firm conclusions about their performance in an alternate future where the Caps no longer have Semin on the roster.
This affects the decision on Semin since, as others have noted, Flash and Fehr are the most likely internal candidates to receive his ice time once he’s gone.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
If Jizz goes, I think GMGM pulls some strings to attempt to pick up Kovy.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
Man, I don’t know about that. As noted above (or below?), a potential re-signing of Semin puts a lot of cap room into the forwards. Kovy would just increase the lopsidedness of that equation.
I would guess that Semin’s money and productivity get split into at least a couple of players.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
For this year? Maybe. Long-term that’s way too much cap space tied up in two wings.
Grand Rapids A-Go-Go
I don’t know how honestly realistic that move is (probably not very, if at all), but I think that a move of near-that-magnitude has to be made if we lose Semin.
by DrinkingPartner on Dec 23, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
Different perspective
When I think of Semin one player I think of who is very similar to him is Marian Gaborik. There both very skilled and can take over games one thing that sets them apart is Jizz is a little more durable then Mr. Glass but Jizz is more inconsistent then Mr. Glass
by washfan29 on Dec 23, 2009 1:12 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I said it jokingly before, but I’ll still take Ilya Kovulchuk over Semin. But I think Kovy is going to be more expensive that Semin will be(rumored he’s looking for 10 mil, more than Ovie GL with that)
But by the numbers: Last season Semin was tied for 18th in points for the season. GP-G-A-P 62-34-45-79 with a +/- 25. Respecitvely ranked 16th in goals, 30th in assists, and 14th in +/-. Going down the list of guys who had more than 1 point per game we have: Malkin(113 points) 1.38 ppg. Ovetchkin(110) 1.39 ppg, Crosby(103) 1.34, Pavel Datsyuk(97) 1.26, Semin(79) 1.27. He was #4 in ppg last season. Those are some pretty reputable numbers. This season he is still a 1 ppg player, and makes up 11% of the teams goals.
Looking as per salaries, Datsyuk is at 6.7 mil agianst cap. Ovie 9.3 mill, Crosby and Malkin 8.7 mill (the guys he was closest to as per PPG). Rick Nash 5.4, Mike Richards 5.75, Patrick Elias 6. Semin currently makes 4.6. If he resigns he’s looking for more money. And he can get it question is how much should the caps pay him. They could potentially weasel out a high front-end low-back contract that keeps him hovering around 5.5-ish despite paying maybe 7 his first few seasons then maybe 2 or 3 later on. OR they could shop him out to another team for a pretty great deal potentially too.
People are stupid, a person is smart. This leads me to believe there must be at least one smart hockey fan in Philly.
The issue is not his talent or his aggregate production. The issue is whether the Capitals can be comfortable enough knowing what they’ll get out of him in the playoffs to lock him up.
by David M. Getz on Dec 23, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
I have to say, I agree with the basic line of argumentation in the article: we’ll know how much to value Alex Semin once we see how he performs in the playoffs.
The planted assumption here, and it’s one that I agree with, is that WE DON’T KNOW what his value is at present. It’s bootless to attempt to put a dollar figure on his worth; to determine whether he should be on the team going forward; or to look at the potential complexion of the team without his services.
We know for certain that losing him to the KHL would be bad. Beyond that, it’s all issues that have to be held in abeyance for the nonce.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
Agree with the tone of the article. If the caps attain all their goals this season, you tender Semin to as many years as he has left as RFA and let him go if another team wants him. If the Caps fall short, he’s an extremely valuable piece for the following reasons:
07/08 playoffs. Semin was a completely different beast in that series than he was in the regular season. Feisty, agressive, played with snarl and was one of our best players on the ice. He took 2 PIM/game over the last 4 games of that series… Two goals were scored in those 4 games. One was in a Caps win, and the other was in the 1st period that carried over into the next period where PHI scored. Still an early tally that the Caps rebounded from. 2 Roughing, (one of those was him retalliating on Breire for holding his stick, and drew an extra minor on EmoKid for a Caps Power Play), a xcheck and a trip.
08/09 playoffs. Semin put the team on his back in the most important game of that series. Sure, Varly played great against a notoriously weak Rangers offense, but Semin notched 2 first period goals go take the preassure off Varly in game 3, at that time a must-win for the Caps. On the penalty department, Semin was still good for a PIM a game in the series, but only 2 were penalties that goals were scored, and just about all were early in the game. 3 Trip, 2 rough, 1 each HS, H and H.
We’ve seen a good bit of Semin in the Playoffs. I can’t remember for the life of me a situation where I felt he cost us a game, but I can remember quite a few where he stood out, and brought his A game. He’s a point-per-game player, even after just about 1/3 of his playoff time playing with a bum wrist. I think what the Caps do with Semin relies mostly on how the TEAM does this post-season, not how Semin performs (provided he performs as per his usual self).
I look up and down the league, and I can’t for the life of me think of someone who can be a team’s # 1 when required (Ovie out of the lineup and no Semin, what do you have?) that can be had for under 6M. The problem is, he could be a #1 on many teams in the NHL and that could make his price go up a lot. He hasn’t yet been invisible in a series. My only playoff question is, where has he been in big games. In 3 game 7’s (one hurt) he has a goal, 2 pims -1 and 12 shots. That one goal was a huge one, a late 1st period tally vs the Rags last year to tie the game.
The other question I have, is, if he was the #1 on the Caps, would we see him trying to play through more injuries than he seems to right now? Sure, we complain about him taking a lot of time off for ailments we seem to think aren’t that bad… But if you can see that the team is fine in the regular season without you, why not take whatever time you need to be 100% healthy? Notice Ovie leaving the lineup, he hopped right in from his wrist injury to try to fill the void and give teams a player to fear. The 6 game stretch without Ovie started rough for Jizz, and the rest of the team responded during those 6 games. Once Ovie came back, Semin took some more healing time which makes me think he was playing hurt during Ovie’s 6 game stretch. Then came Ovie’s 2 game suspension, Semin hopped back in the lineup when the team needed him and dominated those 2 games and has been great ever since, 1 P/G in reduced PP time, 4 PIMs and a not a single minus game in that span.
by FFSEnough on Dec 23, 2009 3:33 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Post: 838 words
Comment: 675
Close, but no cigar!
Just messin’ – rec’d for effort… I’ll get around to reading it soon.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I read the whole thing. And it was good.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Dec 24, 2009 1:29 AM EST up reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
|
Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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