January Capitals Prospects Update
by David Getz on Jan 29, 2009 11:30 AM EST
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In the wake of the All-Star break and the trade deadline approaching (not to mention three days off for the big club), it seems like a logical time to take a look at some of the prospects in the Capitals system with an eye on the perhaps not-so-distant future. Of these players who would you like to see in Washington in 2009-10? Who is or is not going to pan out for the club? Who might be potential trade bait at this year's deadline or during the offseason? Twenty-one key kids, after the jump.
Francois Bouchard (21, Right Wing, Hershey Bears, AHL) – Bouchard's offensive talent level is unquestioned, but there were concerns about his skating ability, work ethic, and defensive acumen coming into the season. Bouchard has adjusted to the AHL quite well as a rookie, posting 25 points in his first 40 games with the Bears the season, but the most encouraging statistic is his +20 rating, second on the team only to Oskar Osala.
Chris Bourque (23, Right Wing/Left Wing, Hershey Bears, AHL) – Bourque continues to play the waiting game and continues to show that he's ready to move up from the American League, where he's averaging a point per game. A victim of numbers (both roster size and salary cap), Bourque, a restricted free agent at season's end, will likely be in Washington for the 2009-10 season.
Joel Broda (19, Center, Calgary Hitmen, WHL) – A fifth round pick in 2008, Broda has exceed his career highs in goals, assists, and points in 2008-09, splitting time between the Hitmen and the Moose Jaw Warriors. The 39 goals in 47 games are a big improvement over 28 in 70 last season, and are especially encouraging for a guy whose consistency was a knock against him going into the draft.
Greg Burke (18, Left Wing, Cedar Rapids RoughRiders, USHL) – Burke only made it into eight games for the RoughRiders this season before injuring his shoulder, an injury that, the team announced on Tuesday, will end his 2008-09 season for good. Burke will attend the University of New Hampshire in the fall.
John Carlson (19, Defense, London Knights, OHL) – Given their position heading into last summer's draft, Carlson was my top choice for the Capitals and he's done little to temper my enthusiasm since then. At the moment Carlson is third in scoring among OHL defensemen, second in OHL rookie scoring, and first in rookie defenseman scoring. I've seen Carlson compared to Montreal's Mike Komisarek, but Komisarek never put up offensive numbers like this at as high a level of play as Carlson is. This guy's going to be a stud, and could see his first NHL action as early as next year.
Stefan Della Rovere (18, Left Wing, Barrie Colts, OHL) – Della Rovere's another guy who has exceed expectation in juniors this year; like Broda, Della Rovere has already exceeded last year's total in goals and points. Della Rovere was also the latest-drafted player on Canada's World Junior Championships team and is the captain of the Colts.
Joe Finley (21, Defense, North Dakota Fighting Sioux, WCHA) – Finley's North Dakota Fighting Sioux are 15-10-3, are currently ranked 12th in the country, and have gone 6-2-2 in the ten games since Finley returned from a concussion. As for Finley himself, the big blueliner has scored two goals in twelve games this year. That may not seem like a lot but given that he only had five in the 127 NCAA games he had logged coming into the season, it's worth keeping an eye on.
Josh Godfrey (21, Defense, South Carolina Stingrays, ECHL) – Godfrey's split this season between Hershey and South Carolina, arguably a victim of numbers himself. What's surprising is that the man with the 99 mile-per-hour shot has yet to score a goal this season.
Andrew Gordon (23, Right Wing, Hershey Bears, AHL) - Gordon, who had 51 points in 57 games with the Bears last year, hasn't been producing at the same level in 2008-09, but that's not all that surprising given the influx of talent Hershey's seen this year. Gordon logged his first NHL game back in December and will likely be a bubble player heading into camp next year.
Anton Gustafsson (18, Center, Bofors IK, HockeyAllsvenskan) – According to his father, Gustafsson has struggled with injuries so far this season while playing with Bofors. Gustafsson is most likely to spend 2009-10 in Sweden before coming to North America, although it wouldn't be a shock to see him in Hershey next year.
Braden Holtby (19, Goalie, Saskatoon Blades, WHL) – Holtby's been a workhorse for the Blades this year and leads the WHL in minutes played. Holtby has certainly earned the playing time: he's sixth in the Western League in GAA and fifth in save percentage.
Dimitri Kugryshev (19, Right Wing, Quebec Remparts, QMJHL) – Kugryshev started off strong in the 'Q', with eight goals in his first twelve games, hasn't slowed down much since, and is currently the leading scorer among rookies in the league. Kugryshev also represented Russia at the World Junior Championships in late December and early January.
Sami Lepisto (24, Defense, Hershey Bears, AHL) – Lepisto continues to put up great numbers in the AHL and continues to struggle in his own end against NHL competition. Even with all the injuries the Capitals have had on defense, Lepisto's only made it into seven NHL games in 2008-09, and at twenty-four he might not have much more room to develop. It's still possible Lepisto could wind up being an NHL-caliber player but he looks to me like he's headed the way of Jason Krog and Alexandre Giroux, as a guy capable of dominating the AHL but being unable to make the leap to the next level.
Eric Mestery (18, Defense, Tri-City Americans, WHL) – Mestery, a tall blueliner whom the Capitals selected in the second round last year, has split this season between the Tri-City Americans and the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL. Given his size and play style Mestery could be viewed as a "project" defenseman. Don't expect to see him in Washington for at least a couple more years.
Michal Neuvirth (20, Goalie, Hershey Bears, AHL) – Neuvirth's odyssey, which saw him go from camp with the Capitals, to South Carolina, to Trinec Ocelari HC of the Czech League, and back to South Carolina (where he was an ECHL all-star), seems to have ended in Hershey... for the time being, at least.
Oskar Osala (21, Left Wing, Hershey Bears, AHL) – Osala's size (6'4'', 220 pounds) and production last season in Finland (18 goals in 53 games) had to excite the Capitals coming into the season, but few would have predicted the winger to be on a 35 goal pace in the AHL in his rookie year. At the season's outset I would have predicted 2010-2011 as the earliest Caps fans would see Osala in the lineup regularly but it's looking more and more like he may be with the team to start 2009-10, especially if Chris Clark is bought out or otherwise moved in the offseason.
Mathieu Perreault (21, Center, Hershey Bears) – Perreault's playingmaking skills have been on display for Hershey this year, where he has 24 assists in 44 games. Getting Perreault to the size the Capitals would probably want him to be before he's taking a regular shift in the NHL might take another year or two, so it may be 2010 or later before he take makes it up to Washington to give fans some relief from Michael Nylander.
Sasha Pokulok (22, Defense, South Carolina Stingrays, ECHL) – Pokulok has primarily played with South Carolina this year, being recalled to Hershey only when the Bears saw their blueline depth take a hit with so many of their regulars called up to Washington earlier in the season. It's possible Pokulok may wind up with a decent career somewhere but at this point the former first rounder is a non-factor in Washington's organization.
Keith Seabrook (20, Defense, Calgary Hitmen, WHL) – With 36 points Seabrook has already more than doubled his point total from last season and his +15 rating suggests his defensive struggles are behind him. Of course, that +15 rating would look better on a team that had more than one player in the negative. It's worth noting Seabrook was the WHL's Player of the Week last week.
Simeon Varlamov (20, Goalie, Hershey Bears, AHL) – Caps fans got a glimpse of their team's future in net when Varlamov made two appearances for the team earlier in the season. Those two wins weren't flukes: Varlamov has posted great numbers in the AHL this season and is likely to make a strong case to start the season on the big club's roster at camp in September.
Kyle Wilson (24 Center, Hershey Bears, AHL) – Wilson has continued to be a solid contributor for the Bears this season and, depending on what happens with Nylander and Sergei Fedorov in the offseason, may have a shot to break camp with the Caps next year.
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I could definitely see Finley going the Theo Ruth route…I think he’s superfluous at this point with our other defensemen.
Lepisto definitely should be sold while his value’s high
by YvonLabresMoustache on Jan 29, 2009 12:14 PM EST reply actions
Interesting take on Finley; I see what you mean. With Green, Schultz, and Alzner in DC as a young core, Poti under contract another couple seasons, Carlson in the pipeline, Erskine extended for two more seasons, and Jurcina a RFA Finley might not be needed too soon. At the same time other teams could see his size and defensive ability and fall in love with him, netting DC a good return.
As for Lepisto, I don’t know how high his value is. Teams might want him but a 24-year-old, 176 pound defenseman who struggles in his own end against NHL competition probably isn’t going to have teams beating down the door to get him.
I feel like Finley has “future whipping boy” written all over him.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I can see that. I think people expectations can sometimes be too high when they see a big defenseman in the sense that they immediately go to archetypes like Chara and Pronger. If you’re big, and make effective use of your size to do things other than hit people, you get criticized as Jeff Schultz does. If you’re physical and big but not a great skater you get criticized like John Erskine.
I really don’t know enough to know what Finley’s upside might be but I am pretty sure he’s not going to be Chara or Pronger when he comes into the league.
Agreed.
I’d like to see Jeff Schultz fill out a little more – when he does he’ll have an incredible wingspan.
Finley is 6’7", 252 and has issues with on-ice mobility? I’ve never seen the guy play, but that description makes him sound like Mathieu Biron.
My heart sunk a little typing that.
I have as many wins in a Capitals uniform as Michael Belhumeur does.
Let me clarify – I don’t think Finley has skating issues (in fact I think he’s supposed to be a good skater for his size), I just think big defensemen tend to become scapegoats because a lot of people see their size, underestimate how hard it is to play ‘D’ in the NHL, and won’t cut them slack when they make mistakes, especially early in their career.
I think Hal Gill is probably the player most comparable to Finley.
Tall D develop slowly and start as whipping boys. Even Chris Pronger…
I think that a lot of this is spot-on. I’d add that a number of these players have size issues that may limit their NHL upside. Boy has GMGM drafted a bunch of small players lately. What happened to the WHL-obsessed GM we knew and… knew?
I think that a lot of this is spot-on. I’d add that a number of these players have size issues that may limit their NHL upside.
I agree with that, especially with Mathieu Perreault and Lepisto. The other smaller guys (Della Rovere, Bourque, Bouchard) I think will fill out enough to make it in the NHL. But it’s still not an issue that can be overlooked with any of them.
Della Rovere is something I think we desperately need – a pest. For that reason we could see him in Hershey sooner rather than later. Same with Carlson as a stud Dman. I personally like Bourque a lot – I like watching him play but do think he’ll need to fill out a little bit to be able to be effective in Washington. Hell, look what happened to Fleischmann when he did over the summer.
Bourque also showed me something during the AHL All-Star Game that makes me think he’ll fit really well in Washington – that second empty net goal between him and I forget who the other one was. They passed that puck back and forth four or five times – you take it! no you take it! no you take it! Very unselfish play on his part, and I liked that.
Hmmmm.
I think these analyses are spot-on, but to figure out who might stay and who might bubble down into Hershey next year, I think we need to look at Washington and who might move either before the end of the year or in the offseason. Also, as Brian Pothier’s playing in the 3-on-3 scrimmage tonight at that country club per Tarik, if that goes well we have to factor him into the equation as a potential comeback to Washington.
Does anyone have a good source for contract information, i.e. who comes up as either UFA or RFA in the offseason? The ones I know are Fedorov, Kozlov, Morrisonn, Jurcina (I think). Nylander and/or Clark might move too, but that depends.
NHLNumbers.com does a good god of that:
UFA’s
Kozlov
Fedorov
Brashear
Johnson
RFA’s
Morrisonn
Jurcina
Fehr
Gordon
Schultz
Lepisto
Others on the move?
Clark
Nylander
I personally think Fedorov retires and Nylander stays as the #2 center and Clark gets bought out.
Appropos of nothing, I’d like to see Kozlov re-upped at a good cap number sooner rather than later.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jan 29, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’d like to think that Osala’s eventual promotion and (with any luck) Fehr’s emergence would make Kozlov obsolete after his next contract.
I’d like to think that.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
by Bald Pollack on Jan 29, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
i think Osala needs more time in the minors…like 1-2 more years.
by ns on Jan 29, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
About the length of Kozlov’s next contract. Right.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
by Bald Pollack on Jan 29, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
agreed, and did you think we’d feel that way watching him last spring? how things change.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
you think we’d feel that way watching him last spring?
I’ve felt that way about him since the initial signing, but that’s another story.
"Good crowd out there tonight, boys, let's really try to win this one."
by Bald Pollack on Jan 29, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
Cool, thank you!
marks the link That’s what I was looking for.
Remember we also have to factor in Pothier as a possibility if tonight’s scrimmage goes well. We won’t be able to trade him – he’ll have to put in some time with us first to prove he can still play. We also have to think about what the real needs of the club are.
I don’t think we will be pulling in many UFA’s. Maybe one veteran Dman. Most of the changes to the roster will be guys coming up from Hershey, and that’s cool.
Mo goes, almost definitely. Replaced by Alzner. Who’s our seventh D, though? Am thinking Sloan is the 7th D. Collins as a 24-year-old with NHL caliber and NHL experience could be enticing to a team like Toronto who is looking for youth and might be a package
I expect that Johnson will be dealt at the trade deadline if Varlamov is healthy. He is a good, solid backup goalie in a market where goaltending will be slim pickin’s in the offseason. GMGM will be looking to get something good for him instead of losing him to UFA. Toronto needs good netminding; wonder if Johnson and Collins could be dealt with Nylander to Toronto … but for what?
I don’t Toronto would have much interest in Johnson, as he’s a UFA after this season, but I could see him getting moved. Personally I’d like him to stay in Washington. I have more faith in him taking over than Varlamov should Theodore succumb to injury.
I can see that – I like him too – but the fact is that we have a logjam in goal right now. Say you move Johnson as a sweetener for another deal. That leaves Theodore/Varlamov next year, moves Neuvirth up to Hershey (where he’s doing well right now) and leaves us room to potentially bring in Holtby. I’d consider Holtby a keeper, myself.
Up front ....
Hm. I think Fedorov retires. He might stay one more year, though. If we move Nylander using Johnson and Collins as bait, that leaves a center position open (unless we move Laich back to center, but if we do, he’s got to improve on faceoffs). Maybe Aucoin can fill that. I think Broda should probably spend a year in Hershey, but I don’t know all that much about him, so I could be very, very wrong on that.
I would hate to see him go, but Osala is the offensive piece in Hershey that I’ll wager a lot of teams are coveting right now. I think this guy has a great future…for someone.
I think it’d take a “too good to be true” offer to pry Osala away, just because there aren’t too many guys with that size who can score.
Long term I think he’d be a great fit to compliment a skill player like Semin, Fleischmann, or even Ovechkin in the way Laich has done and Clark did before his injury.
Agreed—it would have to be part of a significant trade with high return. With any shred of luck, Osala is a Corey Perry-type this team could really use. To me, he is the only true hands-off offensive prospect we have…won’t surprise or disappoint me a bit to see any of Bourque, A. Gordon, Perrault, etc. moved, but giving up OO would hurt.
so that leaves us with a HANS OFF LIST of:
D Alzner
D Carlson
LW Osala
G Varlamov
I would personally add Bouchard to this list.
Della Rovere?
by ns on Jan 29, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
Bouchard and Della Rovere are both good players but I don’t see anything about either than screams ‘keep at all costs’.
Alzner’s a great defenseman who’s captained teams at high levels and had a high end potential of Scott Neidermayer (with a less fluid skating stride). Carlson’s been compared to Mike Komisarek but looks like he’s better offensively. Varlamov’s a great goaltending prospects and Osala is the type of player that’s hard to find anywhere.
Conversely Bouchard is an offensively talented winger who lacks size and isn’t great defensively – I think he wins up like Tomas Fleischmann. Della Rovere plays an oft underrated role and seems like he’d be a good teammate but he seems like he’ll wind up like Matt Cooke or Jarko Ruutu. Both players have value, but neither has talent that’s so rare it needs to be kept at any cost.
Players like DR, Bouchard and some of the other guys in Hershey such as Sloan/Collins who have been filling in have an added benefit past their talent level. Namely, they’re cheap and under team control for a while. Having guys like that ready to step onto the roster, even if they only play 8 minutes a night, is crucial to keeping costs down.
Imagine for a moment that you could replace the following players with callups making $500k: Clark ($2.6m), Brash (1.2m), Bradley (1m), and for the sake of argument Morrisson (1.9). Theoretically you’d be able to save $4.7, probably without much detriment to your on-ice talent.
Obviously, that might be impossible for a number of reasons (namely that most of them aren’t ready yet), but I think it’s important to maintain the depth players so that you’re not tempted to go out and overspend on FAs in order to fill out the back end of the roster.
Bouchard and Perrault are interesting projects, high-risk/high-reward players. If either (or both) break into the league at some point, it’s not going to be in a third-line/checking capacity. They’re going to be scoring forwards no matter what league they play in – sort of like Giroux. I don’t know if that makes them more or less attractive as trade bait, but it’s something to keep in mind.
I have as many wins in a Capitals uniform as Michael Belhumeur does.
Before we get too high on Osala, let’s remember that we used to have another big winger with soft hands and scoring touch who put up big numbers down in Hershey. His name was Eric Fehr. Seen him lately?
I think Osala’s got a lot of potential (as does Fehr), but right now, the sample size is too small to make any definitive judgments. If a team comes offering “the piece” (whatever that may be) and demands Osala, it would behoove GMGM to listen. I’m not saying he should be on the trading block, but he’s not in the Alzner/Carlson/Varlamov level of prospect.
True on Fehr
But lets remember the dude had a debilitating back injury that required surgery and his absence from hockey for over a year. He’s still only 23 (24?) and certainly hustles his ass off on the ice. I wouldn’t really give up on him until we actually play him in real NHL minutes for the majority of a season. Why that’s not happening now is something I can’t really understand, what, other than the C on his chest, is Clark bringing to the ice that Fehr wasn’t? Fehr is younger and needs minutes, we’re not sure what we may or may not have yet, he’s an unknown. As opposed to Clark, who’s abilities, or lack thereof are quite well known.
I agree, I don’t think Osala and Fehr is apples to apples. Fehr had his back injury but he also was a guy who relied more on hands and skill than size and strength like Osala does. There’s a big difference in size and frame between 212 at 23 and 220 at 21. By the time he’s Fehr’s age Osala could be up at 230 or so.
Happily disagree there, D’oh. If you can name a better prospect on offense, I’d love to hear it.
I am getting this sinking feeling that GMGM is going to stand pat at the ’line anyway.
Darn. I had a post all written up, but something happened. Oh well, I need a break from work anyhow.
I’m not disagreeing that he’s our best forward prospect (but given the way that Carlson is putting up points in London, he might be our best offensive AND defensive prospect). I just don’t feel that Osala is on the same level as Alzner, Carlson or Varlamov. I think he’s a level down with Bouchard, C-Bo, Neuvirth, Kugryshev and maybe Perrault. They’re good prospects, and Osala’s got the biggest upside of them (literally), but I think they’re not so amazing that you ignore offers for them, as you would if someone tried to get one of the top three in trade. However, I’ll admit that I haven’t seen all these guys play and my knowledge is limited to what I can glean off the tubes, so it’s possible I’m talking out of my butt on this.
I guess I was trying to point out that he’s got less than a year of North American pro hockey under his belt and, while he’s been good, he hasn’t been earth-shatteringly amazing either. His stats are generally in line with what Flash and Fehr accomplished at the same level, and I’d never have called either of them “untouchable.”
Regardless, I think we’re all in agreement that we’re stoked that the Caps found a gem in the 4th round, and I hope to hell that he comes up in a couple of years and provides the power forward the Caps hoped they were getting in Fehr.
Sounds like this Joel Broda fella is a good one to keep an eye on. Gotta love those Calgary Hitmen.
by OvechkinLaichsSemin on Jan 29, 2009 2:45 PM EST reply actions
Ages?
Love the post, and much kudos for all of the research and work putting it together. But it would be a ton more useful if you listed the age of each player. Easy enough to fix?
Gustafsson
I never liked this pick, and with time, I like it even less. The Caps picked him ahead of the projections, and it had everything to do with who his father was/is. They picked with their heart and not their head and I think they’ll pay for that.
I know that injuries dropped his draft stock, but there’s a reason for that – and we’re seeing it now. I also know that injuries prevented him from playing in the World Juniors, but his absence from that tournament is a concern, because it’s hard to judge the progress of younger players in the Swedish leagues through statistics.
At least we flipped Eminger to pick up Carlson in the same draft but. . .
Anyhow, I really hope I’m wrong on this one.
Damn
I keep losing my posts. Anyhow, missing out on Eberle, Tedenby or Tikhonov could turn out to really suck. Again, I hope I’m wrong. I just remember so much of the coverage after the draft focusing on his dad and ignoring his injuries, which might have been a bit of an omen in hindsight.
I can understand the other two, but Tikhonov? Talk about going off the board…
Regardless, every time the question comes up I remind myself to look at it this way:
If you told me that GMGM had traded up two spots to take Carlson and had acquired a second 1st for AnGus by dumping Eminger, I’d have been ecstatic. That would be a coup of epic proportions overall, especially since AnGus (if healthy) is EXACTLY the type of player this team will need to develop.
The fact that the picks were reversed is an oddity, but the assets – for – picks is a huge win no matter how you slice it. It just so happens that that many more GM’s were crazy enough to pass on Carlson, and we lucked out even more than we might have.
The Tikhonov thing is mainly due to the fact that he’s already playing in the N. He might not pan out, but more often than not, guys who manage to stick with the big club in their draft year tend to be pretty damn good.
You’re right about the pick order. I don’t think anyone else had Gus on their radar in the first round. We might have been able to trade down and pick him up along with another pick. Still though, I hope Carlson is good enough to make us forget, just like Ovie’s good enough to almost let us forget Pokulok.
I was thinking about this some more, and maybe I’m being too harsh on the whole thing. After all, the Avs took Paul Stastny higher than projected in part because of his father and his “hometown boy” status at DU. Other teams thought that he wasn’t big or strong enough to make up for his lack of speed. Even with his injuries, that was a major coup.
One "dark horse" prospect...
…is C Travis Morin. He’s been stuck in South Carolina because of the center jam in Hershey, but he’s proven last and this seasons that he really doesn’t belong there (34 goals and 84 points in 68 games last season, 12 goals and 49 points in 41 games this season). He also just turned 25 and is an RFA this off-season, so I don’t know what’s going to happen to him.
Viktor Dovgan’s another guy stuck there.
DMG - Job well done
I got weird looks in the office when I stood up and gave you a standing ovation. Holy crap talk about in depth. Well done.
Re: Finley
We don’t need Finley to become Chris Pronger or Chara; we won’t be able to afford him if he does become that good. With Green/Alzner/Carlson we are going to have a lot of money tied up in our top 3 D five years from now (not to say anything of the Forwards). If Finley turns out to be Hal Gil that may be perfect. Throw in Schultz and you have two large defensive defensemen that won’t command huge salaries. How good would Hal Gil look on our blue line now? Our blueline could use a nice mean streak and Finley definitely brings that. Don’t forget that he is playing most of his games on international ice in a very fast league. If he can skate well enough to play on the big ice then hopefully he can adjust to the NHL sized ice (and speed) with a couple years in the AHL. My guesses for most likely to be moved: Borque, Lepisto, Neuwirth.
hands off list
For me its:
Carlson (drool, looked better than Alzner in the Rookie Camp from my viewing, total package)
Alzner (anyone doubt that this kid is just going to get better, just imagine a couple more seasons of seasoning plus pro off-season conditioning?)
Varlamov
The next level below:
Osala (just because the lack of this type of prospect in the caps system)
Neuvirth (young goalies are crapshoots prospect wise imo, so nice have neuvirth if varlamov flames out)
RE: Finley…wish he had come to Hershey this year but in the end not THAT big a deal. I’ve been high on him for years but new shinier toys (recent draft picks) are getting the limelight. I would think we’ll have to see how he does in this July Dev Camp/ Fall Rookie camp to really get a feeling at what kind of chance he has of working out. Hopefully the concussion stuff is behind. We could use a Dman with his snarl in the system.
I agree with your hands off list. I also agree that neuwirth is a nice insurance policy but if we are trying to look for an impact player at the trade deadline we are going to have to give up value. Neuwirth will certainly command a good return and he wouldnt leave our cupboards bare. Over the summer I was disappointed that Finley was not going to be in Hershey but looking at the depth charts he probably would have been in South Carolina anyway. Who knows, he may end up in SC next year as is with Godfrey and Dovgan fighting to step up to Hershey.
Cheeeeeeeeeser to me means we’re ok to trade Neuvirth. The others I agree with.
Football's boring. Get over it.
by Whiter Mage on Jan 30, 2009 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
@Whiter Mage: I don’t think Machesney will ever be NHL caliber. He does fine as #1 in Hershey, but he’s not consistent enough to make that jump. I’d hesitate on Neuvirth if only because the kid’s been through enough trades and another one might hurt his development as a goalie.
@Fehr and Balanced: Agreed that we’ll need to give up value in order to get an impact player at the trade deadline, and to get some of the dead wood off our hands. Fortunately, youth we got. We’re so deep it’s not funny – that’s how we survived the injury storm. We’ve got other guys that will command a pretty good return, too, in a salary cap era. I actually see Sloan and/or Collins as possible trades – they’re cheap, they’re proven that they can play at the NHL level, and right now they’re depth D-men for us. I also think Johnson as part of a package is not out of the question – his stats are very good for his cap number, and GMGM will be looking to clear the logjam in goal. If he lets Johnson go during the summer, he gets nothing for him, and if Varlamov is healthy, I think resigning Johnson isn’t all that likely.
@usiel: I agree with your hands-off list, although I’d add Della Rovere to the second list for the same reason Osala’s there – lack of that type of prospect in the system.
The nagging concern I have with Finley is whether or not he was drafted for a different league — the pre-lockout NHL, with all of its clutching, grabbing, and cross-checking in front of the net and in the corners. In a more open environment (literally, since the offensive zone is bigger), can Finley flourish? There are 11 defensemen in the NHL 6’6" or taller:
Chris Pronger
Marek Malik
Jeff Schultz
Ryan O’Byrne
Andy Sutton
Alexei Semanov
Boris Valabik
Vladimir Mahalik
Hal Gill
John Scott
Zdeno Chara
Apart from the fact that there are so few in this category (out of 270 defensemen who have dressed for an NHL game this year), how many of those 11 can be considered major contributors? There is even a fewer number of defensemen — five — of 245 pounds (Finley’s program weight) or heavier.
Big defensemen might actually be dinosaurs
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jan 30, 2009 7:53 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Great points. Rec’d.
And who the hell is John Scott?
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Interesting, but...
I think we’d have to do some more research here before drawing any conclusions, and here’s why: there just might not be that many hockey players 6’6" or taller, period. What we’d need to know is how many defensemen of that size were drafted, and how many of those made it to the NHL. I think if we found that there were a ton of them drafted, but most of them were bouncing around the A/EC/CHL, then we could say that they’re dinosaurs.
Personally, I don’t think that’s the case. I think that if we did the research (maybe I’ll do it this weekend), we’d find that the percentage of guys over 6’6" who make it to the NHL is higher than that of their shorter counterparts. The reason that there aren’t more of them is simply that there aren’t that many players of that height at all. The old adage that small guys have to prove they can play whereas big guys need to prove that they can’t still holds true to some degree in my opinion, and I think that the current obsession over Victor Hedman is proof of this.
However, I do think that you could make the argument that teams might be changing their draft priorities away from huge defensemen and toward guys in the 6’-6’2" range, unless the taller player is an outstanding skater. I think the reason for this is that shorter players tend to develop faster than taller ones, and defensemen already develop slower than forwards. So a tall defenseman might take 8-10 years to fully realize his potential. Unfortunately, with the new CBA, that’s also exactly the point when he hits unrestricted free agency (depending, of course, on service time). Pure conjecture, but it’s worth wading through some Wikipedia to figure out.
I’m not sure how this fits into the picture, but I could also see the statistics being complex here because, while there are not many prospects of that size, I think GMs are more likely to take a chance drafting those big kids in hopes of landing the next Chara-type. So, the success rate may actually be lower than expected because of the phenomenon (big guys need to prove they can’t play) you identified. In other words, players with middling skill or athleticism may be NHL draftees just because they are tall, and those fundamental problems are why they bust.
I think you’re completely right that skating is a much priority now than it used to be, across the board but especially for defensemen. I’m not sure if it has as much to do with grooming time as it does with on-ice performance, but that could certainly factor in as well.
It’s a fair item to note. To pick one pre-lockout year out of the hat (2002-2003), there were 12 defensemen 6’6" and taller out of 301 who dressed that year. Six of them ended up being holdovers that made the first (post-lockout) list – Pronger, Malik, Chara, Gill, Semanov, and Sutton
If you've read this far...seek help.
Peerless that is good point re: Finley considering when he was drafted. The post lockout NHL as changed the D side of things at least a little in that it seems to favor more mobile, skilled type Dmen (IMO). From the few viewing of Finley that I have had and reading feedback over the years he does seem to possess some agility and skates well for someone of his bulk. Obviously his top end speed won’t be something to write home about. Really we’ll just have to see if he has ‘the head’ for the pro game. A slower type Dman has to make up for the speed by positioning and reading the play around them. I’m sure there are plenty of Dmen out there who never made it to the show even though they had the physical talent to.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
53 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 61 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
56 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
53 | 23 | 24 | 6 | 52 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.11.2012 at 8:02 AM EST)
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