The Narrative is back, baby! Here are three things we’re talking about today when we’re talking about the Caps…
1. Things Got Weird
In the span of about ten minutes last night, the already tight race for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot jumped to ludicrous speed. Here’s the timeline, per the NHL:
- 9:33 p.m. ET – Trailing 4-3 and needing at least a point to stay in playoff contention, the Red Wings tied the game with five seconds remaining in the third period in Montreal.
- 9:34 p.m. ET – Tied at 1-1 and needing a regulation win to stay in playoff contention, the Flyers pull their goaltender with 3:11 remaining in the third period in Philadelphia.
- 9:34 p.m. ET – Detroit secures at least one point, staying in contention if Washington does not earn a point.
- 9:35 p.m. ET – Washington scores a go-ahead goal with 3:00 remaining in the third period in Philadelphia.
- 9:35 p.m. ET – Philadelphia pulls its goaltender once again in an effort to secure a regulation win.
- 9:44 p.m. ET – Washington secures a 2-1 regulation victory to clinch the 16th and final playoff spot.
And just like that an empty net goal wiped the entire states of Pennsylvania and Michigan off the playoff map for the spring and sent the Caps to the postseason for the 15th time in the last 17 years. Take it away, coach:
2. Against All Odds (Take a Look at Me Now)
It’s been a long year, full of ups and downs and, frankly, more of the latter. There were so many points during the 2023-24 season when the Caps’ playoff chances were even lower than Max Pacioretty’s shooting percentage (which was 4.2% for the year… regression coming?):
And yet, here they are. In the playoffs. Again.
People, of course, have jokes:
The thing is, “their own will” is kinda all this team has. Early in the season, the Caps lost the greatest center in franchise history to the lingering effects of everything he’d given this franchise over the previous 15 or so years. At some point along the way (maybe this season, probably earlier), they lost their most dynamic playmaking pivot and a decorated playoff veteran in his own right to… indifference? In just the last two weeks, they lost the defensemen who were second and third on the team in per game ice time. They have a rookie head coach, an over-the-hill core, a 30-year-old journeyman goalie who had never started more than 26 games before, and they’ve drafted higher than 20th exactly twice in the past decade (including last summer, which… today would be a fine day to sign a contract, Ryan Leonard), so they haven’t had the opportunity amassed elite young talent, and faced the toughest schedule in the League over the last quarter or more of the season.
And yet, here they are. In the playoffs. Again.
They’re not a team that “figured it out” or “got healthy” or even really had a dramatic turn in “puck luck” along the way; they’re a talent-deficient team that hung around a bad Eastern Conference playoff fringe, got some big performances when it mattered most and got in, to the chagrin of many. And it wasn’t against their own will.
They’ll be massive underdogs against the Rangers, with many prognosticators no doubt predicting a sweep (and the truly clever amongst them calling “Rangers in three”). But they won’t have longer odds to win the series than they had to make the playoffs at the end of January, so let’s play the games and see what happens.
(Oh, and you’re welcome for that earworm.)
3. Differential Equations
Related to that first point, perhaps you’ve heard that the Caps’ goal differential on the season was decidedly not positive (of note, however, it was in each of their last three games):
Surely it was better over the last third or so of the season, though, right? No, not really…
No team lost fewer one-goal games this season and only two teams lost more games by three or more goals (San Jose and Chicago). When the Caps were good, they were good enough and when they were bad… they were bad. So… they should decline the invitation to the post-season? Apologize to people and their precious blackbox models (that have been underrating them for years)? Forfeit this series?
As the old joke goes, “You know what they call a guy who gets C’s in med school? Doctor.” You know what they call a team that sneaks into the playoffs with a minus-37 goal differential? A playoff team.
And their goal differential as of Friday is dead even – zero goals for, zero goals against.