1. The Good
Aside from, y’know, scoring an actual goal or two, Game 3’s first period was almost certainly the Caps’ best of the series so far (though we’d hear arguments for the middle stanza of Game 2). The Caps outshot Carolina 8-5 at five-on-five, out-attempted them in a period for the first time all series (19-18), and had an 8-1 edge in high-danger chances. And because it wasn’t all LDHS, the Caps amassed 1.54 expected goals at fives in the first period, comfortably the highest total for either team in series’ now nine-plus periods.
Graphically, that dominance looked like this:
On the scoreboard, however, it looked like this:
As so often happens, the Caps’ inability to capitalize on that strong start would come back to bite ’em, right, Coach?
“No question. If you score on one of those opportunities early and get a lead – one or two nothing – it changes the whole outlook of the game. But we didn’t.”
Still, that start – in a hostile environment that really should’ve been a “weather the storm” road period – has to be encouraging in retrospect, even if it was ultimately fruitless. The plan wasn’t and isn’t the problem, the execution (and perhaps the guy in the other net) was and is:
But the Caps didn’t lose because they didn’t score in the first period…
2. The Bad
Halfway through, the game was still tied. Then the tide turned in a hurry and it was more or less all Carolina the rest of the way:
The rest of the game looked like much of the rest of the series, with Carolina dominating the shot (and ultimately goal) metrics. In fact, from the time Tom Wilson registered a shot on goal 3:06 into the second until the last minute of the stanza, the Caps had as many shots on goal – one from Alex Alexeyev at 4:59 and one from Nic Dowd at 13:20 of the period – as the ‘Canes had goals. And in a third period that opened with the Caps on the second half of a gift power play and facing a two-goal deficit, they managed all of six shots on goal, half of which came in the last 3:04 of the frame, when the game was only technically still that.
The uncharacteristic has become all too characteristic through three games, and now the Caps once again find themselves in a must-win situation.
On a sidenote, if we had 2.5 The Unlucky, that’s where you’d find Alex Ovechkin:
On the Alex Ovechkin discourse, you don't worry when he stops finishing chances, you worry when he stops *getting* chances, and that hasn't happened. Per @naturalstattrick.com, at 5v5 his 7 SOG, 1.17 iXG, and 6 iHDCF all lead the series (both teams).
— Japers' Rink (@japersrink.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 6:55 AM
3. The Fugly
Hoo-boy, where to start? Maybe with this near disaster…
Nic Dowd almost scored on his own net during a delayed penalty 😱 pic.twitter.com/1HEETASa7f
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 10, 2025
Or this actual one, in which a won defensive-zone faceoff has to be fished out of the net moments later because John Carlson didn’t seal off his man and Rasmus Sandin didn’t step up (and don’t worry, fans – Carlson knows he has to be better):
Then there’s the save that Logan Thompson “makes nine out of ten times” (which is actually probably a little low – MoneyPuck assigned that shot a 5.8% chance of scoring, Evolving-Hockey at 8.7%)… and the next one was even worse.
How about Alex Alexeyev’s marathon 2:31 shift in the third?
We could go on, but why? The bottom line is that the Caps were good until they weren’t. Play that first period again and maybe they end up on top at the final buzzer, especially if they get the goaltending to which Caps fans have grown accustom in these playoffs. But play that last 30 minutes again from the net on out and it may not matter what they do before it.