1. Quality and Quantity
There’s no real secret to the Carolina Hurricanes’ game – dump pucks in, forecheck like honeybadgers on cocaine, shoot from anywhere. It’s all right there. It’s a high-pressure approach designed to force turnovers and capitalize on mistakes, and it led to the highest rate of five-on-five shot attempts in the League over the course of the regular season (and last season, and the season before that).
By sheer volume, that shot rate translates to high expected goal rates (though actual goal rates have tended to lag behind a bit…more on that in a bit). Spencer Carbery talks about it a bit at the seven-minute mark below:
To put a fine point on it, imagine two hypothetical teams who shoot at this year’s League average 18.4% on high-danger shots and 3.4% on low danger shots (via NST). Team 1 (let’s call them the Typhoons) takes 50 high-danger shots and 400 low-danger shots. They score 22.67 goals on 450 shots. Team 2 (let’s call them the Upper Cases) takes 86 and 200 shots, respectively – a much higher percentage of shots come from higher-danger areas, but their shot total is much lower. They score 22.54 goals on 286 shots.
The Washington Capitals are a bit more judicious (quantity-wise) in their approach to shot creation, generally, but the breakout of the types of shots (quality) that each team got at five-aside over the course of the regular season was actually strikingly similar:
In their respective first-round series, however, things were a little different (and more like the example above, though obviously not nearly as extreme):
By design, quality of opposition, or otherwise, the Caps were able to get better quality shots than the ‘Canes at five-on-five, despite lower shot totals overall, tallying 61% of their shots from medium- or high-danger areas versus Carolina’s 42%. Obviously you’d prefer the Caps’ distribution, even at slightly lower total shots, but this is what Carbery’s talking about above, where shot volume, especially over sustained possessions, can make up for lower quality. (It’s worth noting that Carolina’s blueliners averaged 13.5 shot attempts per 60 at five-on-five, a product of their forecheck and “low-to-high” approach in the offensive zone; Caps defenders were at 7.8 against Montreal.)
And if the first round is any indication, that trend might continue, because here’s how shots-against broke out:
Carolina allowed high-danger shots at the seventh-highest rate in the League (Montreal was second); the Caps yielded them at the third-lowest rate. Granted, these are tiny differences in raw numbers (the “per game” rate would be around 5/6 of the “per 60” rate) even if they hold, but given the Caps’ superior finishing talent, those margins might well matter.
Now, the Hurricanes aren’t the Canadiens, and the Caps aren’t the Devils (Carolina’s first round victim). But this is real “live by the forecheck, die by the forecheck” stuff. It’s how Carolina wants to play. If the Caps can manage the puck exiting their defensive end and through the neutral zone, high-quality chances will be there for them; if they can’t, they’ll be fishing pucks out of their own net for four games…and maybe no more than that.
2. Finish Them
Oh, did I say “the Caps’ superior finishing talent”? Indeed, so let’s back that up. Here’s a heat map of Carolina’s expected versus actual goals during the regular season (left) and in Round 1 (right):
In both charts, the ‘Canes underperformed their expected goals (that is, the “G” total at the bottom was less than the “xG” number above it). In fact, that’s been the case for Carolina over the last three seasons (per HockeyViz).
And the Caps?
Seldom has more red been rocked than the Caps during the regular season, a departure from last year to be sure, but very much in line with the majority of the Ovechkin Era. (Interestingly enough, the 2023-24 Caps amassed 226.1 expected goals per HockeyViz, one more than this year’s club… but scored 59 fewer actual goals.)
Anyway, that’s what we mean by “superior finishing talent” – when one team consistently outperforms their expected goals and another underperforms theirs as consistently, the best explanation we’ve got is “superior finishing talent.” And the Caps have that over Carolina. Does that mean that they will have a higher shooting percentage in this series, or the Canes won’t randomly start shooting 15% for two weeks, or that Caps shooters will suddenly go ice cold en masse? Of course not. But you wouldn’t be wise to bet on it.
3. Freddie or Not
Is Frederik Andersen, y’know…good?
Andersen, who missed Game 5 against the Devils after exiting Game 4 midway through, practiced on Friday and held the starter’s crease to boot, so it sounds like he’s a go to start the series against the Caps, as he seems to have recovered from this run-in with Timo Meier:
Pyotr Kochetkov is entering the game in goal for Carolina after Frederik Andersen was injured in this collision with Timo Meier#RaiseUp | #NJDevils pic.twitter.com/anvVz6MuiU
— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) April 27, 2025
When Andersen played in Round 1, he was terrific:
But is Frederik Andersen, y’know…actually good?
Andersen was limited to 22 regular-season games in 2024-25, missing 39 games with a knee injury that required surgery (and it’s unclear if the knock that kept him out for Game 5 was related to that), and his numbers were alright:
Perhaps what stands out most about Andersen is his durability – over the past three seasons, he’s played 72 games total in the regular season (and another 23 in the playoffs). Here’s his full injury history:
Given how he played in Round 1 and his general level of play – when available – over the past few years, it’s safe to say that, yeah, Freddie Andersen is actually good, certainly plenty good enough given the team in front of him. The question, really, seems to be whether he’s going to be able to stay on the ice long enough to show it.