Three things we’re talking about today when we’re talking about the Caps…
1. Logan’s Run
With an sparkling Game 2 performance that was every bit as essential as it was breathtaking – punctuated by a jaw-dropping third period (even if lower-case “the save” wasn’t a save at all) and coming on the heels of a very solid Game 1 – Logan Thompson has put to bed any concerns over what sort of form he’d be in upon his return from injury.
On-point all night, Thompson made highlight reel stop after highlight reel stop when the Caps (once again) needed it most, stopping all 14 shots he faced in the game’s final stanza. Natural Stat Trick credits the Habs with 11 scoring chances in the third, three high-danger shots on goal, and an expected goal total of 1.17 (MoneyPuck has this number just north of 1.5). Montreal scored zero actual goals.
Through two games, Thompson has stopped everything he should have and a handful of shots that he probably had no business stopping, compiling a .951 save percentage (58 of 61):
After Game 1, I half-jokingly noted to my fellow Rink writers that Thompson was good and all, but he hasn’t really made it here in D.C. until the home playoff crowd is chanting his name the way they would their masked heroes of the past, “Holt-by!” and “O-lie!”
Logan Thompson has a long way to go to be mentioned alongside those two franchise legends in most respects, of course, but it’s probably safe to say after Game 2, that he has arrived… and Caps fans know his name:
2. The Answer
Yesterday, we talked about the question facing Spencer Carbery and his staff: how are you going to slow down Nick Suzuki’s line? The answer, at least for Game 2, was essentially “trust the process” – try to get Pierre Luc-Dubois out there against him when possible, with Nic Dowd ready for the second half of Suzuki’s seemingly interminable shifts. John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun again got most of those minutes on the Caps’ blue line.
The results, both process-wise and on the score sheet, were a bit better – whereas Suzuki (as a proxy for his line) compiled 1.64 expected goals-for at fives in Game 1, that number dropped to 1.03 in Game 2; Suzuki’s dominant 74.6 expected goals-for percentage in Game 1 slipped into the red (47.1%) in Game 2.
Whether the Caps made micro-adjustments to how the approached defending the Habs’ only truly threatening trio or simply executed better, or whether Suzuki and pals were simply not as good in Game 2, it’s hard to not wonder whether Montreal’s top trio is already showing signs of wearing down a bit.
During the regular season, Suzuki and Cole Caufield played all 82 games (the third member of that line, Juraj Slafkovsky, missed three). Suzuki averaged 20:04 of ice time per game and 57 seconds per shift, Caufield was at 18:05/55 and Slafkovsky averaged 17:21/55. Through two games (which included a mercifully brief overtime session in Game 1), Suzuki is up to 22:43/1:03, Caufield 20:29/1:00 and Slafkovsky 21:02/1:00. Those times represent three of the top-five longest shift lengths in the playoffs so far (Edmonton defenseman Evan Bouchard has averaged 1:01 and his teammate Leon Draisaitl is at 1:00). Only Nathan MacKinnon (24:48 thanks to two overtime games) has a higher per game minutes average than Suzuki.
That’s a lot of ice time! And it’s coming in big chunks. For Suzuki, 11 of his shifts last night were one-minute or more, including six at 1:20-plus and four at 1:40 or more:
Granted, that includes power plays, stoppages, a last-gasp empty net shift and other context, but still. To quote old pal of the blog Tyler Dellow, “[B]eing on the ice after a minute is sort of like being in a bar after 1:00 a.m. – there’s no guarantee that something bad will happen, it’s possible that something good will happen but the odds are slanted heavily in favour of something bad…”
When Connor McMichael scored the game-tying goal last night after hemming Montreal in their own end, Suzuki’s line had been on the ice for 1:14, third-pair defensemen Jayden Struble 1:27 and his partner David Savard just 43 seconds. There was no guarantee that something bad was going to happen…
You can understand why Martin St. Louis is leaning so heavily on his top line – they’re terrific and what’s behind them is, well, not. But unless Montreal has unlocked the secret to fitness (“Doctors hate them! With this one weird trick, they’ve achieved cardio immortality!”), this isn’t sustainable usage to get the most out of those players. Adrenaline will help in Game 3 back in Montreal. But it’s something to keep a close eye on going forward.
3. Be Like McMike
To some, 2019 first-round pick Connor McMichael’s development had been slow, maybe even disappointing. A nine-goal/nine-assist rookie campaign was followed up by a year in AHL Hershey (when the big club wasn’t exactly teeming with offensive weapons), and a somewhat pedestrian 2023-24 season (18 goals, 15 assists). Then came his breakout this past season – 26 goals, 31 helpers and defensive acumen that not everyone realized was there.
And now, McMichael’s postseason is picking up where that regular season left off. McMichael’s game-tying and empty-net insurance tally in Game 2 were well-earned if fortunate for a player who now leads the team in individual expected goals (1.57) and high-danger chances (5). In Game 2, he was the best skater on the ice:
But rather than highlight either of his goals or other scoring chances through two games, let’s acknowledge an even smaller play. With the Caps up 2-1 late in the third period, Nick Dowd took an unnecessary penalty for interference in the neutral zone. Already missing center Aliaksei Protas, Spencer Carbery’s options for the ensuing draw were limited with his top-two penalty-killing pivots unavailable. He didn’t go with top face-off man Dylan Strome. Or his top defensive center, Pierre-Luc Dubois. Or checking-line middle-man Lars Eller. Instead, he threw right-wing Connor McMichael over the boards. McMichael proceeded to lose the faceoff (yeah, I know you were thinking you were getting the Hollywood ending), but redeemed himself by winning the next one a dozen seconds later, helping the Caps to kill off an absolutely massive penalty. And what it said about Carbery’s belief in McMichael and the state of his game may have been even bigger.
Connor McMichael is a hell of a player and only getting better, and is exactly the type of player you want on your side this time of year.