1. Health Updates
The Washington Capitals are getting healthier:
Aliaksei Protas (skate cut on left foot) looks to be a full participant in Capitals practice.
— Tom Gulitti (@tomgulittinhl.bsky.social) April 29, 2025 at 10:40 AM
That, potentially, adds one of the League’s most dangerous five-on-five players over the course of the regular season to a team that already has had a sizable edge in five-on-five scoring over the first four games of the series:
The Montreal Canadiens, meanwhile, are… not getting healthier:
Canadiens practice is starting and Carrier, Savard, Gallagher, Anderson and Montembeault are missing.
— Arpon Basu (@arponbasu.bsky.social) April 29, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Sam Montembeault and Alexandre Carrier seem the most likely to miss Game 5 (the others were taking “maintenance” days and expect to be a go).
Carrier’s injury may mean Jayden Struble’s return to the Montreal lineup, which would put two of the eight lowest average GameScores so far on the Habs blueline in front of their backup goalie…
… and also likely means more minutes for the guy who last game posted the worst individual performance of these playoffs so far:
That, my friends, is opportunity knocking on the Caps’ door. Let’s hope they answer.
2. Tough Minutes are Tough
Most (if not all) of the teams that make the playoffs are what you’d generally consider “good” teams. What makes “good” teams good teams is usually a collection of good players (and, on occasion, good coaches). These good teams then go head-to-head to determine whom amongst them is the goodest, err, best.
So it should come as no surprise, with much of the detritus of the League left behind, that players of all sorts find the postseason sledding a little more difficult. With the eight worst team save percentages sitting at home, goal scoring is a little tougher; with 11 of the 12 lowest-scoring teams not participating in this tourney, it’s a little harder to keep that goals-against down.
Case in point, here’s a list of the top-10 defensive pairings in terms of ice time through Monday night’s games, and their respective expected five-on-five goals-for percentages:
There are some pretty big names on that list, as you’d expect. A Norris finalist (this year). The winner from two years ago and another couple from a few years back (one of whom has been paired with the fan-consensus best defensive defenseman in hockey and the eighth guy on that same list).
And there’s not one single pairing on that list that’s above break-even in expected goals-for percentage.
Why? These are the guys who are, for the most part, getting thrown over the boards by their coaches for the big moments – the matching against opposing studs, the defensive-zone draws, the late-game one-goal lead defending – and the players they’re facing are the best the other side has to offer. There aren’t too many “bad” top-six forwards in the playoffs – recall that teams with bad top-sixes are golfing right now.
As a point of reference, here’s how the Caps’ defensive duos have performed through four games:
Is that to say that Jakob Chychrun and John Carlson have been “better” than Devon Toews and Cale Makar, or that Rasmus Sandin and Matt Roy are preferable to Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns? Of course not. Rather, it’s to say that tough minutes against tough opponents are, well, tough. Try to recontextualize your thinking this time of year, because regular season stat-padding stopped a couple of weeks ago.
3. Closing Time?
It’s been a full decade since the Caps closed out a series on home ice, last doing so thanks to Evgeny Kuznetsov’s mid-third period goal in Game 7 of the club’s first round against the Islanders. Since then, they’ve won series in Philly (2016), Toronto (2017), Columbus (2018), Pittsburgh (also 2018), Tampa (wait, another in 2018?) and Vegas (a fourth series win in 2018, which means… you know). In fact, the Caps have only won three series on home ice in the Alex Ovechkin Era – that Isles series in 2015 and the Rangers in 2011 and 2009 before that (Boston, 2012 is the other series win in this span).
And yeah, we know about the Caps’ record in clinching games – no team in NHL history has played anywhere close to as many potential clinching games to a lower win percentage (though you’ve gotta appreciate Toronto’s effort in recent years to close that game). But that doesn’t matter. #NotAllCaps
"The killer instinct part of it is… understanding that we need one more level to get to as a team." The Capitals hold the cards going into Game 5 against the Canadiens; now, it's about playing them right. Their thoughts and expectations for Wednesday: thehockeynews.com/nhl/washingt…
— Sammi Silber (@sammisilber.bsky.social) April 29, 2025 at 2:06 PM
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Not having to go back to Montreal would be almost as rare as it would be great.
Almost.