1. Don’t Start Believin’
If there’s one word you see attached to the Canadiens after Game 1, it’s “belief.” The bleu, blanc et rouge-clad Davids managed to push the Eastern Conference’s Goliaths to overtime in Game 1, and therefore, the theory goes, they have demonstrated that they can be competitive in this series. And they very well may yet be. They believe.
But the reality is that Montreal’s near-thieving of Game 1 was made possible only thanks to a score effects-fueled final ten minutes and terrific goaltending all night, both of which served to make the final result look a little closer than the game probably was. And, on the former, it was really a power play and basically one dominant shift from Montreal’s one threatening line:
Kudos to the Habs for their push, but take away that brief spike and the Caps essentially doubled up Montreal in expected goals at fives, with each team adding a power-play tally. For the entire game, in all situations, Montreal was credited with four high-danger shots on goal (that’s them on the left below); the Caps (right) had 15:
Meanwhile, Sam Montembeault – who was 5-6-2/.891/3.28 away from home during the 2025 portion of the regular-season – was doing everything in his power to keep the game within striking distance.
To be sure, the Caps missed a chance to land a crushing blow to Montreal’s confidence (as the Rangers did to them just a year ago):
But, putting aside everyone saying what they’re programmed to after a game like that, the real question regarding belief, then, is do you believe what you saw for 50 minutes or what you saw for a handful of desperate shifts? Given the form that each team was in to end the regular season, one team should be more confident in their chances in this series after Game 1 than before it, and it ain’t Montreal.
2. The Question
Back to that whole “Montreal’s one threatening line” thing… Nick Suzuki’s line is a concern. But in Game 1, they were the only concern Martin St. Louis was able to throw over the boards up front:
By contrast, the Caps were able to roll four effective lines:
Over the course of a series, that math isn’t going to work out for Montreal. Still, that trio piled up as many expected goals as the top six Caps (but not as many actual goals!):
So the Caps need an answer. In fact, it’s the question they have to answer, and, if they can, it’s hard to see this series going long. But that’s easier said than done – hardly any Cap who faced that line came out of that matchup in the black:
Pierre-Luc Dubois (Spencer Carbery’s first choice to match Suzuki) was outshot (attempts) 15-7, and his linemates were bludgeoned 25-7 (Tom Wilson) and 21-6 (Connor McMichael) thanks to a brutal shift alongside Nic Dowd (outshot 9-2 by Suzuki, so not exactly a great alternative). Maybe Lars Eller’s trio gets a chance, but Dubois’ line is still probably the best option (Dubois, it should be noted, had the slightest of advantages over Suzuki in expected goals-for percentage at 50.6).
The real problem may be on the back end. Jakob Chychrun and John Carlson – a pair more or less put together in the wake of Martin Fehervary’s season-ending injury – were outshot with Suzuki on the ice at fives by 21-6 and 20-5 respectively, with xGF% to match. Matt Roy and Rasmus Sandin were a bit better in smaller minutes (and, it should be noted, much of the damage the top pair took came during that third-period surge), so they’re an option for more minutes… or Carbery could mix up his pairings (this is where Fehervary-Carlson would be the obvious choice). Or Carbery could stick with the plan. But another rough game from the top pair and they’ll have to be split up before heading north for Game 3, otherwise the feast will continue. (No one’s asking, but we’d give Sandin-Carlson, Chychrun-Trevor van Riemsdyk, Alex Alexeyev-Matt Roy a shot.)
The game within the game is on – your move, Carbs.
3. LT’s Return
Somewhat lost in the excitement of the Caps’ Game 1 win was how very solid Logan Thompson was in his first game in nearly three weeks, something that he wasn’t in the handful of games leading up to that point. Thompson stopped 33 of the 35 shots he saw and saved nearly two full goals over expected (a metric in which he finished third in the League over the course of the regular season):
Incredibly (though maybe not if you’ve lived it), it was the first time a Caps goalie has posted a single-game save percentage above .871 or allowed fewer than three goals-against in a playoff game in three years:
Yikes.
Anyway, Thompson stopped all four high-danger shots he saw at five-on-five (and allowed a high-danger goal on a double deflection while shorthanded), eight of the nine medium-danger shots he faced, and all 15 of the low-danger shots Montreal put on him. It was an incredibly sound – if not downright impressive – effort, and a massively encouraging performance from the most important player on the ice in a red sweater.
In retrospect, the time off may have done Logan Thompson some good. If so… look out.