1. Doing the Splits
Let’s be perfectly clear from the jump: Logan Thompson is not the reason the Caps lost Games 3 and 4.
With that out of the way, let’s look at Thompson’s home/road splits through nine playoff games this season. At Capital One Arena, Thompson is 4-1 with a sparkling .954 save percentage and 1.38 goals against average, saving an almost ludicrous 10.6 goals above expectation, more than two per game (per Evolving-Hockey); on the road, he’s gone 1-3/.872/3.87 and has yielded 4.5 goals above expectations (more than one per game, on average). In each of his home games, he’s been on the right side of that metric; in each road game, he’s been on the wrong side (in their one road 2025 playoff road win, Thompson allowed 0.31 goals above expected, but only two goals because the Caps’ defense was particularly stout).
Lest you think that’s a function of the team in front of him, it’s worth noting that the Caps have given up all-situation shot attempts (high-, medium- and low-danger) and scoring chances at a higher rate at home than on the road, leading to an expected goals-against rate (xGA/60) of 3.46 at home versus 2.95 on the road per NST. To be sure, there are some score effects built into those numbers, but not enough to change the bottom line that Thompson has been a different goalie in white than he has been in red. Here’s how that has looked, game-by-game, in this series:
That’s three goals allowed at home on 7.63 xG (4.63 theoretical goals saved above expectation) and 8 goals allowed on 5.05 xG on the road (2.95 theoretical goals allowed above expectation).
Okay, fine, but shouldn’t a goalie be allowed to have an off-night and have his team pick him up for all of the times he’s saved their hides? I mean, Calvin Pickard has four wins for Edmonton this post-season in which he’s had a save percentage below .883 for cryin’ out loud (and three dubs in games in which he allowed four goals).
Yes. Absolutely. The problem is… that’s not the Caps, apparently. In their last 37 playoff games (dating back to Game 3 of their 2019 series against Carolina), they have not won a single one in which they allowed three goals or more. That’s 22 times allowing three-plus in the playoffs and 22 losses. Nary a silly 4-3 overtime win or an offensive barrage with a late cosmetic opposition tally or two. As a point of reference, teams allowing at least three goals in this year’s playoffs are 19–57, a tidy .250 win percentage.
Again, the Caps were the League’s second-most prolific offense during the regular season.
All of this is to say the Caps have proven utterly incapable of overcoming a below-average performance from their goalie this time of year, which becomes a problem when they get a below-average performance from their goalie, as they have in each road game this postseason.
This is the job, Logan Thompson – be good-to-great or the season’s over.
2. Rushing and Dumping
As even the most casual observer will notice, hockey teams that trail in games have to increase their risk tolerance in an attempt to create more offense so as to theoretically no longer be a hockey team that trails in a game. And the Caps have trailed a fair amount in this series (of the 243:06 played so far, the Caps have trailed for 77:02). That may, in part, explain why Logan Thompson has faced 23 rush attempts at five-on-five (by NST’s count), a whopping 10 more than any other team in the second round through Monday night’s games. By Sportlogiq’s count, that number is even higher, and twice what the Caps have managed the other way:
Hurricanes take a 3-1 series lead.
— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) May 13, 2025
Odd-man rushes in this series are 28-14 Carolina – Canes have the most of any team in the 2nd round. Not an insignificant reason they are one win away from the East Final. https://t.co/tW91NtjCpO
Hilariously bad luck with Rasmus Sandin’s stick getting stuck in the boards on that goal and Taylor Hall’s subsequent cherry-picking notwithstanding, a number of these rush attempts have come in part as a result of how the Hurricanes prefer to exit their own zone and how the Caps defend their blueline. Jack Han adroitly addresses the former:
Defensive zone turnovers (especially ones high in the zone) are incredibly difficult to defend. Teams expand on offense and contract on defense. One precludes the other, so it’s almost impossible for teams caught off by a DZ turnover to recover in time. [Ed. note: Han cites Jakob Chychrun’s Game 4 goal as an example of this.]
Carolina’s solution for this seemingly intractable conflict is to maximize exit success rate by clearing contested breakouts high, out of the zone.
via Hockey Tactics
Han goes on to put data to the tactic he outlined, citing the ‘Canes microstats from this year:
Note the one blaring area of red here – that’s Carolina’s rank in exiting their own zone with possession. In other words, they’re clearing pucks out and not carrying them. “Flipping the puck high and chasing after it isn’t a panacea, but CAR has the right mix of a tenacious Fs and mobile Ds to make it work,” Han continues. See that number above the red? That “1” for offensive-zone recovery success? That’s how Carolina makes their dump-and-chase work. But they’re also entering the zone with possession at a high rate, no doubt owing to winning pucks in the neutral zone.
At this point, you’re deathly curious to know what the Caps’ card looks like, so here it is:
There’s obviously a ton of interesting stuff here, much of it for another day. But you can see a contrast to Carolina in how the Caps like to exit the defensive zone (more under control and with possession), and how they like to enter the offensive zone (much less possession, more chip-and-chase, which works for them because they are also excellent at puck recovery in the offensive zone).
The contrast in styles has presented the Caps with predictable problems. For one, while the Caps are dumping and chasing to try to establish offense, they’re doing it against an elite defensive-zone retrieval team that will happily just throw it back out of their end and hope for the best because they’ve got dudes who often make “the best” happen. For another, the Caps aren’t much for defending entries and are mid-pack in retrievals facing a team that enters the zone and recovers pucks masterfully. Circling back to the rush attempts point, the result is too frequently a Carolina team with a head full of steam through the neutral zone against a Caps defense that keeps backing in (and the Caps’ Rush Shots For percentage rank of 21st would’ve been a red flag pre-series).
If Spencer Carbery has any aces up his sleeve for how to stop Carolina, now would be the time to play them. Otherwise, he may spend all summer trying to figure this one out.
3. Literally Dogs
I got nothin’. Here are the goalies with three doggos:
