Amidst the crazy 2022-23 season for the Washington Capitals, rookie Alexander Alexeyev snuck in kind of quietly, getting off to a somewhat rocky start but ending on a high note – a tale of two seasons for the young Russian. So what can we expect from Alexeyev going forward? Let’s investigate.
In Alexeyev’s first twelve games, here are how his numbers looked relative to his teammates (per Natural Stat Trick):
- 12 Games Played
- 161 minutes
- 13:26 TOI/GP (time per game)
- -10.99CF% (shot attempts)
- -11.17xGF% (expected goals)
- -18.83SCF% (scoring chance)
- -22.60HDCF% (high danger scoring chance)
- 25.93ozone% (offensive zone start)
That is…less than good.
Here’s how he fared against Elite competition according to PuckIQ (note: DFF is Dangerous Fenwick For or, essentially, High Danger Chance For):
- 37 minutes
- 22.6CTOI% (percentage of total time against competition)
- -11.55DFF%Rel (relative to team)
- 25.0ozone%
Again, not good, though it should be noted that he’s not supposed to be going up against top-tier competition, especially this early in his career. Now let’s look at his next 20 games:
- 318 minutes
- 15:55 TOI/GP
- +2.27CF%
- +4.23xGF%
- +4.33SCF%
- +3HDCF%
- 28.38oz%
That is much better than his first 12 games, that’s for sure. Now let’s take a look at how he did against Elite competition.
- 63.1 minutes
- 20.8CTOI%
- -1.65DFF%Rel
- 33.3oz%
Still not great, but again, much improved from his first 12 games (and again, this is not really his role at the moment). Of course it’s impossible to entirely avoid elite matchups, but if he only comes out slightly negative against top competition then most coaches will take that. For reference, Trevor van Riemsdyk, a very good bottom-three defenseman, was a -4.40DFF%Rel player this season against elite competition. Alexeyev did better than him.
Now the question is, which Alexeyev will the Capitals get going forward? I would argue it’s the latter and here’s why: there are many circumstances in those first 12 games that make sense as to why Alexeyev struggles and there are many circumstances in those last 20 games that make sense as to why Alexeyev excelled.
For instance, those first 12 games for Alexeyev were stretched over a length of time going from November 9th to January 21st. In that time this is how Alexeyev’s games played broke down in terms of playing without sitting: 1, 4, 2, 1, 2, 2. So over 73 days he played just 12 games and his longest stretch of games was just four in a row, other than that it was just one or two games in a row before sitting.
Additionally, it is important to remember that this was Alexeyev’s rookie season and he was coming off shoulder surgery he had last summer.
Now cut to the last 20 games of the season. Alexeyev came in (after not playing for 40 days, mind you), and played in each of the team’s final 20 games and playing over two more minutes a game than he did in those first 12 games. In those last 20 games he was a positive player across the board, arguably one of the Caps’ best defensemen when they were at their worst, in their post-deadline incarnation.
Those last 20 games were probably a much better snapshot of Alexeyev’s potential. It was more ice time, it was consistent, and it was him getting up to speed after an injury.
Something worth noting as well is that among all Capitals defenseman throughout the whole season, Alexeyev had the lowest offensive zone starts than any of them with 25.93%, and among the 251 NHL defensemen that played at least 150 minutes this season, Alexeyev ranked SIXTH-lowest. Not bad for a rookie blueliner coming back from a serious injury.
When it came to playing against elite competition, he was second-lowest on the Caps with 30% ozone starts. Of the 211 NHL defensemen that played at least 100 minutes against elite competition, Alexeyev was 15th (!!!) lowest. Again, that’s absolutely wild for a rookie coming off an injury. Alexeyev was truly thrown into the deep end for his rookie season and came out looking pretty good.
It’s hard to see him getting so few offensive zone starts going forward, because as of now van Riemsdyk seems to be his partner next season, and Trevor finished the season with 57% ozone starts, over 30% difference. Then again, in the 74 minutes that Alexeyev and van Riemsdyk played together this season they had 29.17% ozone starts. So who knows, maybe it stays that way, we’ll have to see what the new head coach does with them.
And while we’re on the topic of the Alexeyev-van Riemsdyk pairing, we need to note how dominant they are together. Among all Caps pairs that played at least 70 minutes together, they were the best with an astounding 65.2xGF%. It’s a shame TvR was hurt to end the season, as that pair was really gelling together. Also, among all defensive pairings in the NHL with at least 70 minutes played together (402 to be exact), that pairing was 10th in xGF%.
To sum it up, this is why the Caps should be excited for Alexeyev going forward:
1) He will have a full offseason to work out instead of rehabbing.
2) He should get consistent playing time next season.
3) He will have a good defensive partner in van Riemsdyk and that pairing has already proved to be dominant.
4) He will only get stronger and smarter the more he plays, meaning he could get even better.
This isn’t to say Alexeyev will turn into some high-end NHL defensemen – but he did vastly improve his game as the season went on, the more time he was given. That can only be seen as a positive. Maybe he only turns into a van Riemsdyk-type player, which alone isn’t a bad future – but maybe there’s more to his game and he’s only getting started. If anything, it’s something positive to take away from an otherwise negative season, and something that Caps fans can look forward to.