Last year we wrote about how Alex Alexeyev’s 2022-23 season had something of a Jekyll-and-Hyde type result. In the first half of the season he played sporadically and didn’t look great in the process; once he started to get consistent time, he was arguably the Caps best defenseman to end the season.
Fast forward to the 2023-24 season and almost exactly the same could be said for Alexeyev’s performance. He didn’t get many games to start the season, or even halfway through the season, but once he made it in the lineup and stayed there, he was very good.
So let’s go back to that 2022-23 season for a minute. Through the first 62 games of the season, Alexeyev played only 12 games. Those 12 games came over a 34-game span between 11/9/2022 and 1/21/2023. Here are his numbers relative to his team (via Natural Stat Trick):
- -10.99 CF%
- -11.17 xGF%
- -18.83 SCF%
- -22.60 HDFC%
So…not great, but not unexpected when you look at how inconsistently he was inserted into the lineup and stayed in the lineup.
Now, below are his numbers at the end of the 2022-23 season, where he played the last 20 games stretching from 3/1/2023 to 4/13/2023:
- +2.27 CF%
- +4.46 xGF%
- +4.31 SCF%
- +4.24 HDCF%
Much improved – in fact, they were among the best on that 2022-23 Capitals team.
Back to last season, where Alexeyev played just 13 of the team’s first 55 games (10/16/2023 to 1/20/2024). His relative numbers weren’t as bad as the start of the 2022-23 season, but it’s still in the negative:
- -2.20 CF%
- -2.90 xGF%
- -0.79 SCF%
- -1.43 HDCF%
And like the previous season, he found himself in the lineup on a more consistent basis to end the season, playing 26 of the last 27 games, resulting in these numbers:
- +2.43 CF%
- +5.18 xGF%
- +5.58 SCF%
- +8.72 HDCF%
It was once again positive across the board, the best among all defensemen who played at least seven games in that stretch (other than a second-place finish in CF%Rel to John Carlson).
Now let’s combine the two good runs he had when he got consistent playing time and combine the two bad runs when he rarely played. Here are the results:
Good Run (Played in 46 of the possible 47 Caps games)
- 14.54 TOI/GP
- 47.42 CF%
- 50.43 xGF%
- 50.94 SCF%
- 51.33 HDCF%
Bad Run (Played in 25 of the possible 117 Caps games)
- 12.76 TOI/GP
- 41.86 CF%
- 41.7 xGF%
- 38.8 SCF%
- 36.2 HDCF%
That’s kind of eye opening – when playing consistently with more minutes, Alexeyev seems to thrive. Note that these are not relative to his teammates, as that is much harder to manually calculate, but we can look at the Caps’ overall numbers during the same stretch of “good” for Alexeyev:
- 45.71 CF% (+1.71)
- 47.26 xGF% (+3.17)
- 47.6 SCF% (+3.34)
- 46.66 HDCF% (+4.67)
Those numbers make Alexeyev’s numbers on the Good Run look even better, even more impressive when considering that he started in the offensive zone only about 30% of the time – so his shifts weren’t exactly easy over that run.
The easy answer for getting the best out of Alexeyev, then, seems to be simply play him more…and that’s where the bad news comes in, because Alexeyev is going up against yet another crowded blueline, like last season (and this season it’s arguably a more talented blueline), which means this will be the third straight season where Alexeyev will probably start in the press box. With the addition of Jakob Chychrun, there isn’t any room on the left wide, unless Martin Fehervary or Rasmus Sandin are sitting, which is unlikely. And while Alexeyev has played on the right side, that side is just as stacked with four other players ahead of him.
Given the current surplus of defensemen, it wouldn’t be surprising to start hearing murmurs about a trade request from Alexeyev’s camp, or even to see him traded before the start of the season. Outside the numbers of playing consistently, he also possesses the physical traits that teams love. He’s 6’4” 214lbs, skates very well for a big man, is physical, has a booming shot and some passing ability in the offensive zone. Given the fact that the Caps can’t risk putting him on waivers and losing him for nothing, and the increasingly packed defense corps, the Caps may find a willing trade partner in a team with more room for him to play.
Whatever happens to Alexeyev, it’s easy to see that he deserves to play consistently somewhere – and wherever that is, he should produce some decent results.