Thanks to a 7-2-0 October, the Washington Capitals have been prohibitive favorites to make the playoffs since well before Thanksgiving, spending most of the last six months in the hunt for the Division title they secured earlier this month (but which was all but clinched weeks earlier) and a fourth Presidents’ Trophy in the Alex Ovechkin Era (a prize they ultimately fell just short of, as other pursuits took center stage).
The Montreal Canadiens struggled out of the gate (4-9-2) and were around a 1-in-35 shot to make the postseason and were 21 percent likely to make it just three weeks ago before a late-season heater dovetailed with the rest of the Eastern Conference wild card hopefuls flushing their respective seasons away allowed the Habs to sneak into the playoffs with the fewest points among the 16 clubs invited to the dance (five fewer, in fact, than the Calgary Flames, who did not qualify for the tournament).
On paper, this match-up is one-sided nearly across-the-board:
That said, Caps fans know all too well that “on paper” isn’t always worth the paper on which it’s written, and don’t even have to look past their looming opponent for the ultimate example of that. But just how big a favorite are the Caps? One sportsbook has the Caps at -330 to win, an implied win likelihood of 76.7%. Make no mistake, even as they coasted into the postseason with sloppy and uninspired play, the Caps are massive favorites in this series, and anything short of a series win would render a season full of promise and individual successes as a team-level failure.
And how does this series compare – on paper – to the rest of the Ovi Era series? In terms of a handful of high-level metrics (regular-season points percentage and goal differential, score-adjusted Corsi-For percentage, and all-situation goals-for and -against above expected), this one lines up to be probably the Caps’ largest pre-series advantage since they faced the Maple Leafs in 2017:
The Caps’ points percentage margin over Montreal is the largest since that Toronto series, their goal differential edge the greatest since 2010, and they were significantly better (in aggregate) than the Canadiens in possession (SA CF%) and finishing (GFAx) over the course of the regular season. The one area in which the Caps don’t have a clear advantage is in goal, something that would’ve no doubt looked different a month or two ago… but it ain’t a month or two ago.
There are, of course, unknowns there – specifically the questions of whether (and when) Logan Thompson will be back and, if he is, how rusty will he be and which version of the likely Vezina-finalist the Caps will get. The answers to those questions could very well swing “goaltending” in the Caps’ favor. But until it does, that’s the one area to keep an eye on (as cliche as it is to say “it all comes down to goaltending in the playoffs”). In fact, of the factors above, the best predictor of the ultimate series result (in this tiny sample) has been GSAx – in 17 of the 24 playoff series in the sample, the team with the larger regular-season goals saved above expectation won the series (making it impossible not to imagine what Alex Ovechkin’s legacy might be if Henrik Lundqvist wasn’t a thing, but we digress).
Of course, past performance is not indicative of future results, and the chart above is more a curiosity than anything. The bottom line is that, as we’ve seen in the past, if the Caps can get decent play in net, it’s hard to see them losing. But if Sam Montembeault outplays whoever mans the Caps’ cage, the Caps might not be able to overcome it.