There are plenty of reasons the Washington Capitals are fairly extreme longshots to make the playoffs this year, starting with their absolutely horrific power play (30th in the League in net efficiency, 22nd in five-on-four expected goal rate, etc.). A related contributor to their downfall, however, has been how few goals they’ve gotten in recent weeks from players they depend on to do exactly that. Consider:
- Alex Ovechkin (heard of him?) has scored in just one of the 14 games since January 27, a two-goal effort in a 6-2 loss at Montreal at the end of February. Two goals on his last 45 shots on goal for the game’s all-time leading goal-scorer (who still somehow tops the Caps in that category, despite having just four power-play tallies all season, heading for by far a career low).
- Tom Wilson has one goal in eight games since the Olympics and just two in 18 games since New Year’s Day. He’s tied with Ovechkin with a team-high 24 on the season.
- Jakob Chychrun is a defenseman (and third on the team in goals with 23, which says something in and of itself), so his two goals in eight games since the Olympic break are a perfectly acceptable number (even if neither came on the woeful power play).
- Aliaksei Protas (21 goals) has three goals in his last 14 games dating back to January 25, one of which was into an empty net (which counts, but…)
- Dylan Strome (16 goals) hasn’t scored since January, a 12-game drought that includes 18 unsuccessful shots on goal.
- Connor McMichael (10 goals coming off his breakout campaign) has scored in one of his last eleven games, a two-goal outburst against the Flames that snapped a stretch of three goals in 29 games.
- Pierre-Luc Dubois had three goals in his first three games back from injury, but has just one in his last seven games.
- Justin Sourdif (and now we’re really stretching “players they depend on” to score here) has one goal in his last dozen games (in that 7-3 blowout win over Calgary), Ethen Frank hasn’t scored on a goalie in his last 18, Anthony Beauvillier has none in his last ten dating back to before the Olympics, Brandon Duhaime doesn’t have a goal in his last 40 games (and has just one assist over that span), and Hendrix Lapierre’s only goal in his last 10 was in that “young guys get right” dub over Calgary.
By my count, that’s eleven forwards who have combined for 11 non-empty net goals in nine games since the Olympics. Ryan Leonard, bless his heart, has four over the same span. Put another way, Rasmus Sandin has as many goals as Alex Ovechkin, Connor McMichael and Aliaksei Protas (individually) since the Break; Trevor van Riemsdyk and Matt Roy have as many as Tom Wilson, Justin Sourdif and Ethen Frank (all with one apiece); Cole Hutson has as many – for the Washington Capitals – as Dylan Strome, Anthony Beauvillier and Brandon Duhaime combined. That’s part of how this happens:
Any one of the droughts mentioned above, in a vacuum, is neither crippling nor particularly statistically unlikely – variance happens. But collectively it’s the difference between being in a playoff hunt and, well, where the Caps are now. It’s not just the power play.