Q1. Which Caps player(s) do you want to see more from in Round 2?
J.P.: I’d like to see more from Logan Thompson, not because he underperformed (he didn’t), but if they get more from him, it’ll be pretty hard to lose. But in the spirit of the question, I’ve gotta go with John Carlson, (who almost surely is playing hurt). Some of the numbers are there – expected goal rate hovering just under 50% with an actual goal rate well above that in tough minutes leading to a plus-six rating – but he has just the one assist, the power play has looked like shit and he’s struggled with the puck in his own end. He needs to be better and can be.
Greg: To that end, if the Caps are going to be playing Jakob Chychrun and Carlson together for the long haul (and it seems like they are), Spencer Carbery is going to be leaning into Matt Roy and Rasmus Sandin as their “shutdown” pair. The pair was okay against Montreal, but the heavy forecheck of Carolina is going to lead to a unique challenge. The Caps will need both Roy and Sandin to play clean and effective hockey if they hope to advance.
Luke: I’ll go plural on this one and say the whole bottom-six needs to score more. By my count they scored four total goals in the Montreal series and I believe two of those were empty netters, so really just two goals across five games. That might work against Montreal but against Carolina, they’ll need to probably be averaging a goal a game.
Adam: For the Capitals to win this series, they will need the best version of John Carlson. He was deployed incredibly defensively against Montreal and, to my eyes, never appeared comfortable in the series. A crisper and quicker John Carlson would go a long way in helping the Capitals handle the Hurricanes impressive forecheck.
Rob: Tom Wilson is widely credited with swinging the series when he crushed Alexander Carrier right before the Caps tied game 4, but that’s about all he did. He was a scoring chance back hole despite playing with two guys that did pretty well by that metric and just looked off with his puck touches most of the series. He’s going to need to be more effective, in more ways, to get through Carolina.
Q2. What do you see as the biggest challenge the Caps will face with the Hurricanes?
J.P.: I’ve already written so much about the importance of puck management in this series, but I think it’s everything. It’s an area they’ve had trouble with at times and they’re facing a team that lives and dies by exerting that sort of pressure on clubs, particularly on the forecheck. So the Caps’ biggest challenge in this series is going to be limiting turnovers on breakouts and through the neutral zone and mitigating the impact when they do occur.
Greg: Agreed with J.P. So lets also highlight an additional challenge… rebound control. Specifically, Logan Thompson was 50th in the NHL in rebounds generated per 60. For a team that relies on shot volume and rebounds to generate offense, that is a potential vulnerability. In addition to strong puck management, the Caps will need their goalies to direct rebounds in places where defensemen can easily collect them. I think LT can do it, but Carolina poses a unique challenge here.
Luke: Both JP and Greg make great points, but I’ll go with trying to break down Carolina’s penalty kill. The Canes were perfect in their first round series against the New Jersey Devils and they also had the best penalty kill in the regular season. It’s hard to win a playoff series without scoring on the power play. The Caps will need to find a way to put the puck in the net while a man up and also watch out for Carolina’s short handed chances (they had one short handed goal against the Devils and had 10 in the regular season).
Adam: Special teams. The Hurricanes outscored the Devils 1-0 while on the PK in the first round and had a special teams index (PP% + PK%) of 132%. The Capitals finished the first round with a special teams index of 90%. Carolina’s PP was the best in the East in R1 and the Capitals PK was the second worst (behind only Ottawa). I think the Capitals can hang with the Hurricanes during 5-on-5 play, but unless special teams improve… that won’t be enough.
Rob: Depth is going to be a problem, Carolina has no weak lines. Montreal would get momentum for a couple shifts but the Caps generally could break it over Montreal had to put the 3rd or 4th line on the ice. The Caps won’t have the luxury of easy matchups this round so they’ll need to find a way to break Carolina momentum or risk things snowballing and getting out of hand quickly.
Q3. What do you think is the Caps’ biggest advantage over the Hurricanes?
J.P.: Finishing talent (read all about it here). The Caps are well-known in hockey stat circles for consistently (and often massively) outperforming their expected goals with actual goals, while the ‘Canes are the opposite. The difference is finishing talent (and, this season at least, some amount of good fortune). That guarantees absolutely nothing over the short four-to-seven game sample ahead, of course, but the advantage (as well as the potential for it to show up) is there.
Greg: Although Freddie Andersen had a good first round, the Caps have the clearly better goaltending this year. That’s a really important edge for the Caps, so long as LT continues his strong play in the second round.
Luke: Outside of the power of friendship, the Caps’ biggest advantage is their physical style of play. If the Caps can get bodies on bodies to wear down Carolina then they’ll be looking pretty good. The issue is you have to catch Carolina first.
Adam: I agree with Greg, Logan Thompson is the best advantage the Capitals have going into Round 2. After how poorly the team finished the season, I was pretty concerned about goaltending heading into Round 1, but LT was great against Montreal.
Rob: Finishing talent didn’t really show itself as a huge advantage against Montreal but over the course of the season (and many prior) it’s clearly a real thing for the Caps. Carolina has Svechnikov on a bit of a heater but with Aliaksei Protas coming back and getting healthier after the long break, I think we’ll start to see some of those percentage advantages come through again.
Q4. Predictions, let’s hear ‘em!
J.P.: Unsurprisingly, I nailed the first round (hilariously, we all had “Caps in five”), so I’m okay being wrong here and going with ‘Canes in six (though all bets are off if Freddie Andersen can’t stay on the ice). The Caps’ weaknesses play too perfectly into Carolina’s strengths, and unless this becomes much more of a war than a track meet, the Caps’ strengths may be muted as officiating bends to Rod Brind’Amour’s whiny will. Also, I am a coward.
Greg: Caps in six. I trust Carbery to make the right adjustments over time to counter the ‘Canes aggressive forecheck, and I think those adjustments will give the Caps elite finishing talent and goaltending the time and space to take advantage of superior talent.
Luke: Honestly, I can see this series being a sweep or seven games with multiple overtimes every game with either side winning the series. I think these are two very good teams with different styles of play and whoever can force their style onto the other will win. I know that’s a weak answer but gun to my head I think Carolina pulls out the win only because of their speed and with the Caps missing their fastest defensive defenseman, that might be the slight difference needed. But I think if you play this series 100 times it would split 50/50, hopefully the Caps are on the right side of it.
Adam: The Capitals will shock the hockey world and defeat the Stanley Cup favorites in six games. Logan Thompson will have a great series, especially on the PK, and the Capitals’ finishing talent will shine against Carolina’s lackluster goaltending. While past results don’t guarantee future outcomes, it’s worth noting that the Capitals are 3-9 all-time in Game 7s at home – the worst record in league history (minimum two games). Better to finish this one in six.
Rob: The ‘Canes are a machine at home and I don’t like the Caps’ chances of taking a game in Raleigh, so they’ll need to hold serve at home to take the victory. Montreal gave the Caps all they could handle in Game 1 and wouldn’t go away in Games 2 and 5; Carolina is much deeper so think about what the third periods would have looked like if Montreal wasn’t carried by one line. I don’t think the Caps pull off four home wins, and I’m sure hoping they don’t add another Game 7 home loss, so Carolina in six.
What do you think? Let’s see your picks in the comments…