It’s the best time of the year: playoff season! The Caps kick off their chase for Lord Stanley as the top seed in the east, facing off against the eight-seed Montreal Canadiens…and we have thoughts.
Q1. Who are your top two or three key guys who have to perform for the Caps to beat Montreal?
J.P.: Two or three? Guess I’ll go Logan Thompson and/or Charlie Lindgren. Basically, I don’t see a way the Caps lose this series if they get decent-enough goaltending, barring the truly unforeseeable (and perhaps unimaginable). But given the question marks surrounding Thompson’s health (and the way he was playing prior to his injury) and Lindgren’s season overall that possibility absolutely exists. There’s simply no skater for whom a subpar series dooms the Caps – they’re too deep for that. Oh, and since you said “2-3 key guys,” give me Spencer Carbery as my third. I don’t see him getting out-coached by Martin St. Louis, but this is the time of year when we see who truly is (and isn’t) a good coach, so Carbery has to be on his game (though it’s more likely to matter if, hockey gods willing, the Caps advance).
Rob: I’ll go with PLD and whoever is playing in net. I agree with JP that anything short of a disaster in net is probably enough, but the games won’t be all goaltending. I’ve had PLD as the team MVP since the midway mark and I’m sticking with him. The Habs are a one-line team, and PLD is going to go toe to toe with that line. If he comes up with a big series against Suzuki, it’s hard to see where Montreal is going to get the goals; if his line loses that battle, things are going to get quite a bit more uncomfortable though
Becca: 100% agree on goaltenders and PLD’s importance, and I’ll throw John Carlson in there, as well. He’s been the backbone of the team’s defense for so long now (and criminally underrated in that role) – and if the Habs are as top heavy as they seem to be, he will be almost if not equally as important in shutting down guys like Suzuki and Caufield and even Hutson.
Kalilu: Depth is the biggest advantage Washington has over Montreal in this series, and they’re going to have to lean on that with Aliaksei Protas and Martin Fehervary’s statuses up in the air. Anthony Beauvillier and Alexander Alexeyev look to be taking on far bigger roles than anyone expected they would have a month ago, with the former practicing on the top line and the latter appearing on the third defense pair having just been called up from Hershey. The longer that holds, the more crucial their ability to keep things running smoothly becomes.
Q2. What do you see as being a dark horse advantage for the Caps in this series?
Becca: I’m going with the defense. Not just the six guys on the blueline, although I do think they are a) much better than the Habs’ blueliners and b) more than capable of handling the Montreal offense – I’m talking full team defense. When the Caps play their system, when they follow the structure laid out for them by Carbery and co., they are a very good, tightly locked down team that can shut down even the most high-flying offenses (in spite of some of the loose play we’ve seen over the past few weeks). Starting with Pierre-Luc Dubois and on down to the third-pair defense, I think they are built and coached in a way that can keep the Habs’ top scorers mostly quiet.
J.P.: Let’s go with home-ice advantage. The Caps were 26-9-6 at home, and the Habs were 17-19-5 on the road. On the flip side, Montreal was 23-12-6 at home and Washington went 25-13-3 away from Cap One. The Caps scored 3.68 goals per game at home (fourth-best in the League) and even during this last stretch of middling (at best) play, closed out the season 8-2-0 at home. And hell, they don’t even have to play a Saturday night “Hockey Night” in Montreal. It would behoove the Caps to take care of business on their own sheet, and there’s every reason to believe they can.
Rob: The Caps have been near the top of the league all season and as a result their myriad strengths have been well chronicled—it’s hard to find a strength that would surprise anyone these days. That said, if there’s one aspect of the Caps’ success that continues to be underrated, it’s my man PLD. He doesn’t have the scoring numbers (or reputation) to get him to the top of the Selke votes, but the fact that nobody even mentions him is a testament to how underrated he continues to be. We have heard a ton about Suzuki and Caufield, especially since Four Nations, but nary a soul has given PLD his due. I’m expecting a big series from him against the team he grew up rooting for, and maybe then people will realize how impressive his game is.
Kalilu: I’ll extend Rob’s thoughts to the rest of the Capitals’ centers. Dylan Strome, PLD and Nic Dowd won’t be up for any individual awards this season, but their consistency and ability to gel with various linemates has given the Caps a high floor throughout the year, something that I think will give them the edge over Montreal in a seven game series.
Q3. Finally, let’s get some series predictions:
J.P.: Look, it’s easy to let the hockey doomer in you hijack your imagination and your keyboard. The Caps have stumbled into the playoffs, looking largely terrible in essentially meaningless games. They’ve gotten beaten by lower seeds far too often during the Ovechkin Era, including most embarrassingly to this very same Montreal franchise. But the Caps are too deep, too structured and too skilled. Caps in five (because, as always, six is for cowards).
Rob: This is the first time Ovi has been on a high scoring team that didn’t get there based on skill and cute hockey. They earn their offense honestly—as Paul Maurice said, there’s no bullshit to their offense—and as a result they are better positioned than ever before to keep up the scoring in the playoffs. Caps in 5.
Becca: I so want to say Caps in six, partly to embrace my inner coward and partly to embrace my inner pessimist…but yeah, I think the Caps have the big guns up front, the talent on the blueline, and the structure and coaching strategy that are all lacking in Montreal and that should hopefully help them dispatch the Habs quickly. Caps in five.
Kalilu: I don’t want this to sound like group think, but I do think Washington is better top-down and shouldn’t struggle too much here. I feel pretty comfortable picking us to win in 5, and trust that they won’t get me posted by Freezing Cold Takes.