It’s that time again! The 2025-26 season is mere hours away, and we are ready to usher in the new campaign for the Capitals…but before the puck drops, we talk about the team, where it’s at, and where it’s going!
Q1. Year 3 under Coach Spencer Carbery…what are your overall expectations for the team under the reigning Jack Adams Award winner?
J.P.: This is a tough one. They’ve had two straight years of remarkable progress, both as a team and for a number of individuals, so it’s hard to envision another leap like that. Progress tends to not be perfectly linear and all, and a lot did break right for them last year. So I might expect somewhat similar results, maybe even some regressions here or there (again, both on the team level – five-on-five shooting percentage comes to mind – and for some individuals). But what I absolutely expect is for this team to keep up its high work rate and to address any glaring weaknesses if and when they arise. They should be a pretty solid bet to make the playoffs with a shot at home ice for at least one round, and what happens next is anyone’s guess.
Rob: I agree with JP that we’re probably in for some regression this year – too many guys had career years last year and even given where many of them are in the aging curve, that’s not repeatable. That said, they should be solidly in the top three spots in the division and closer to battling for the top seed in the Metro than a wild card spot. I expect them to be competitive and confident from the start, and if they can put together a passable third line they might be able to overcome some of the individual regression.
Luke: I expect them to be good. I know this isn’t a sexy answer but it’s the truth. Carbery is a very good coach and as this team gets younger, he should be able to get them better and better. The team still lacks, as it stands before the season begins, that high end talent that a lot of teams have but they are very deep with a lot of skill. I think Carbery is the kind of coach that can get the best out of what he has so they should be a playoff team again this season. As JP pointed out they probably will regress on the goal scoring but then again Ryan Leonard could pick up that slack and the Caps could finish with similar stats as last year.
Becca: I’d agree with Luke on this, because I think a lot of the personal and team achievements last year are less about luck and coincidence and more about the right players in the right system and the right time. It may not be 100% repeatable – Aliaksei Protas’s shooting percentage alone would lend itself to regression – but I don’t see them dropping off as much as some outside of this group seem to. With an improved third line and some younger legs in the lineup overall, they should be in the mix for the Metro title again.
Q2. What do you see as the biggest question mark for the Capitals heading into this season?
J.P.: There are a handful, but I’m gonna focus on the blueline here, beginning withJohn Carlson. He was terrific a season ago and seems to (finally) be getting some recognition for the borderline Hall-of-Fame career he’s had. He also played another 2,000-plus minutes, playing in all situations, and will turn 36 in January. Since 2010-11, only five skaters have logged more than Carlson’s 25,369 minutes on ice. At some point (if it hasn’t started already, and it has), he’s going to start visibly slowing down.
But this isn’t even really about John Carlson. Carlson’s underrated super power is his ability to eat minutes and play any role needed, which allows everyone else on the blueline to slot into a role in which they can be successful (one need only look back at the middle of the 2022-23 season to see what a shitshow everything turns into when Carlson’s not there). Pair him with a stay-at-home rearguard and he can rush the puck; play him with a more offensive-minded partner and he can handle the back-end. Even-strength, power play, penalty kill… he’s got it. There’s a strong case to be made that he’s been the single most valuable player in terms of the team’s on-ice success over the past 15 years. (Yes, including you-know-who.) So the question mark for me, then, is what happens when he slows down and, eventually, when he’s gone? Is Jakob Chychrun ready to slide into that type of role? The team seems to think so. Can Rasmus Sandin, Matt Roy, Martin Fehervary and Trevor van Riemsdyk take on more minutes and responsibility? How far away is Cole Hutson?
The Caps’ blueline last year was remarkably stable and consistent, but when it lost Fehervary late in the year, it was in a bit of shambles, especially on the penalty kill. Does this unit have the depth to withstand an injury or two and/or decline in minutes or play from the guy at the top? The answer will go a long way towards determining how successful they can be this year.
Rob: Most of last season was the Logan Thompson honeymoon and until he got injured it looked like he might be able to sneak out a Vezina finalist spot… then he signed his shiny new contract. You can forgive him for being injured down the stretch, it happens, but the way the series against Carolina ended has me worried about his ability to repeat the pre-contract extension portion of last season. LT has never been able to lock down a number one spot because of injury or inconsistency, but he was also never relied upon to be a true number one. Well, now he’s being paid like a true number one and the team is going to need him to pull his weight, all while he has newfound financial security that has a way of dampening a goalie’s edge.
Luke: I alluded to it above but the Caps biggest question mark by far, to me, is the lack of elite talent. The good news is they are good to great just about everywhere, just not elite, though I think they have some youngsters coming up that could hit that level like Leonard, Cristall and Hutson. The Caps will probably win a lot of games assuming they stay healthy due to their coaching and depth. The question is when it comes to the playoffs, will their lack of elite talent hold them back from progressing. We’ll have to wait and see on that.
Becca: All good answers, so I’ll swoop in with one that’s probably the most obvious (and certainly the most-discussed among the media leading up to the season): the captain. Alex Ovechkin just turned 40, and while he showed that he still has the ability to produce explosive offense with his wild goal-scoring run to break the record, the uncertainty lies in what he still has left in the tank when there isn’t something historic to chase. I’m certainly not questioning his drive – he’s always been a competitor, and you know he wants at least one more shot at another Cup – but there is something to the adrenaline of the chase, which he won’t have anymore.
That said, if we’ve learned anything over the last two decades…it’s never count #8 out.
Q3. Last year was the Year of Breakout Seasons™. So which Capital is poised for a breakout season this time around?
J.P.: There’s an obvious answer here, but I’ll leave it for someone else and go with my ride-or-die, Rasmus Sandin. Sandin will be 26 in March, is entering his fifth full NHL season, and looks to me like a guy ready to make The Leap. His defense has come along quite a bit, and now it’s time for the offense to follow suit for the slick-skating Swede. Depending on where he winds up in the lineup (alongside John Carlson in the top pair, perhaps, or alongside Matt Roy), Sandin could definitely raise some eyebrows around the League in 2025-26.
Rob: Ok, I’ll take the bait. Hendrix Lapierre has come into training camp seeming like he’s already been counted out. His fast start in the preseason games has maybe turned that perception around, but it’s interesting to me how (Hershey) bearish the sentiment has been around him. I don’t think Connor McMichael has the same pessimism to him coming into camp last year, and Lapierre is right where McMichael was last year as far as career development. The Caps have put several years of development into him at this point, so I think they are going to be hesitant to just let him go. I think he gets a real look at the third line this year, and I think he’ll hold it down.
Luke: To me, maybe the most important player this upcoming season will be Jakob Chychrun. He got a hefty raise to be paid like a top pairing defensemen and now it’s time for him to play like one. Carlson is still really good but they need to lower his minutes to keep him fresh for the postseason. Chychrun should be leading the whole team in TOI by season’s end. Chychrun’s underlying numbers were bad last season but after the break he finished the season very strong. The Caps will need that type of play from him all season long. If he does, he could really break out with 60+ points while also being relied upon as a top pairing defenseman. Let’s hope!
Becca: I’ll go with a different defenseman, and that’s Martin Fehervary. We saw how important he was to the lineup last year when he was injured and, as J.P. mentioned above, the team pretty much crumbled – and I think we haven’t quite seen the best of Fehervary yet. While Sandin seems posed to be the team’s next good offensive defenseman, Fehervary has a bit more of the stay-at-home, physical presence to him that I see him just growing into as a freshly minted 26-year-old.
Honorable mention, though, will go to Ryan Leonard. Rookie season or not, he is a very smart, offensively skilled player being coached by someone who seems to understand what buttons to push to get him to the next level. I don’t know what “breakout” season necessarily looks like for him but now that he’s had a full camp and is more comfortable with the system and what is expected of him, I can see him taking a big step forward.
Q4. Rapid-fire prediction time:
- The first Capitals’ goal of the season will be scored by..
- JP: Dylan Strome
- Rob: Tom Wilson
- Luke: Connor McMichael
- Becca: Dylan Strome
- The first Capital to take a penalty will be…
- JP: Nic Dowd (likely a stick foul in the offensive zone)
- Rob: Nic Dowd
- Luke: Pierre-Luc Dubois
- Becca: Pierre-Luc Dubois
- _________ will lead the Capitals in points this season.
- JP: Dylan Strome
- Rob: Dylan Strome
- Luke: Pierre-Luc Dubois
- Becca: Dylan Strome
- _________ will lead the Capitals in goals this season.
- JP: Alex Ovechkin
- Rob: Alex Ovechkin
- Luke: Tom Wilson
- Becca: Alex Ovechkin
- The Caps will have ___ 30-goal scorers this year.
- JP: 1
- Rob: 3
- Luke: 3
- Becca: 3
- This season will not be a success if ____________…
- JP: Neither of the goalies prove to be anything more than average.
- Rob: They miss the playoffs.
- Luke: They don’t get out of the first round.
- Becca: They lose in the first round.
- Alex Ovechkin will score Goal #900 in what stretch of games?
- JP: 1-10
- Rob: 1-10
- Luke: 1-10
- Becca: 1-10