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Rink Roundtable: LT’s New Deal

The Rink crew breaks down the new deal for LT in our latest roundtable.

Photo courtesy of the Washington Capitals

Yesterday the Capitals announced a shiny new six-year deal for goalie Logan Thompson; today, the Rink crew chats about the contract, its implications for the other half of the goaltending tandem, and what’s next for GM Chris Patrick.

Q1. Hit us with your Initial thoughts on, and a grade for, the Logan Thompson extension.

J.P.:I have mixed feelings that lean positive. He’s not as good as he has been over the last month (no one is that good), so the timing makes it feel like the Caps are buying high, but their pro scouting has earned the benefit of the doubt from me. Given a rising cap and maybe a contending window opening sooner than they thought, I don’t hate it – it gives them some stability at, like, half a Shesterkin in cost and they’ve literally shown in the last seven months that they can Houdini out of a bad goalie deal (and even turn it into a gem) if it goes sideways. I’ll give it a B.

Greg: I’m with J.P. on giving it a B. Thompson has been incredible this season, and there were glimpses that he could be that goalie for a while. That said, obviously, you’re buying high, given that he’s likely to be the runner-up for the Vezina this year and he’s unlikely to keep up this level of play throughout the extension. There will be comparisons to Darcy Kuemper’s contract, but maybe the better comp is the Caps 2015 Braden Holtby extension. Both goalies were in their mid-20’s and coming off of career-best seasons, and both played an…unconventional style of goaltending. The Holtby extension worked out, though we’ll have to see how it works with Thompson.

Rob: I think a B feels fair here. It’s unlikely to look like a bargain as it plays out but it also won’t kill the team—between a rising salary cap and the fact that nobody suffers from bad contracts anymore, they can figure out a solution if LT doesn’t live up to the deal. The timing makes it feel a little bit like buying high, but you figure they started negotiating before the recent hot streak and the Caps pro scouting team deserves as much benefit of the doubt as any team, so I’m guessing the team feels comfortable with this number looking at his entire body of work. Jack Han pointed out that LT has had good numbers in prior starts, but always had to fight for his ice time and never was “The Guy” before. Hopefully his mental constitution is such that he can handle it, because that’s my one big concern, and where I think I distinguish this deal from the Holtby deal—the team is locking up a guy that’s never been a true starter before. 

Becca: I’ve kind of talked myself into it being mostly decent, especially after looking at where the goalie market is clearly trending (and being thankful that, while still paying a lot for a goalie, the Caps are not handcuffing themselves with a deal that’s too hefty). The term makes me a little nervous, as is always the case when talking about a longer deal for a player inching closer to his 30s, but longer contracts feel like the price to pay to keep the AAV a little lower. And as Rob noted, if it ends up not working out, there are almost always teams inexplicably eager to bail other teams out of bad contracts these days…the Blackhawks exist, after all. I’ll go with a B+, just to be different from these boys.

Q2. The Caps have expressed interest in keeping both Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren; what do you see Lindgren’s new deal looking like, should he re-sign?

J.P.: It’s tough. At the risk of stating the obvious, Lindgren isn’t getting the deal that Thompson just got. So is he willing to take a deal with a modest raise to likely be in something like a 40/60 split here? The vibes have been immaculate, but Thompson’s new deal complicates things and for no one more so than Lindgren. I’d welcome him back at something in the $2.5-3M*3 range (which is a big bump, percentage-wise), but it gets a little dicey from there (caveat: I’d give him a blank check if the alternative is “full-time NHL backup Hunter Shepard”). Lindgren has earned the opportunity to seek bigger bucks and a bigger role than he’d get staying in Washington, and if that’s what he’s looking for, I hope he finds it. 

Greg: Agreed again with J.P., it’s all about the term and $$ that Lindgren would want to stay. That said, I don’t love the idea of shelling out $3 million or more for a backup goalie, given Thompson will be the starter going forward. I’d much rather save that money and take another flier on a backup goalie.

Rob: I prefer not to spend more than 10% of the salary cap on the goaltending position, so that means something like $2.5-3M for Chucky on the next deal. That’s still over double what he makes now, but this is his last / best chance to get paid so he may not be interested in philosophical perspectives on the value of goaltending contracts. 

Becca: I could see it coming in as about half of what Thompson got, both in money and term, so JP’s three-year deal for somewhere in the $2.5-3M range sounds right to me – as a maximum. As for whether he could get a higher payday elsewhere…maybe? I’m not sure he’s done enough to get a really big contract with another team, although the goalie market is always super competitive, so maybe I’m wrong (and the Caps just locked up the guy who probably would have been the biggest UFA goalie available so it just got more so). Hopefully he’s not looking to find out – all schmoopied up with his agape love for this team and all – and the Caps can keep him for a reasonable amount. 

Q3. Now that Thompson’s re-signed, which pending UFA (if any) do you make your priority if you’re GM Patrick – and what do you give them?

J.P.: You’d think it’s Chychrun’s turn (if not Lindgren), and his play has tailed off a bit to the point that hopefully both sides can agree to something reasonable that keeps him in D.C. for at least the next 4-5 years – at Thanksgiving, I’d probably have advocated for a max term, big-dollar deal. Also, Nick Backstrom is a pending UFA, and you don’t want to let that guy walk, so… 

Greg: We’ve heard a lot about Chychrun and whether he’ll re-sign…so I’ll pipe in here and say that I’m curious what will happen with Nic Dowd. There’s obviously going to be some Jay Beagle comparisons, but Dowd has always been much better at driving play and he’s got potential to play up in the lineup a bit. That said, a defensive-focused center like Dowd can drive NHL GMs to do some crazy things, so we’ll have to see what his number ends up looking like.

Rob: Even with the recent slump it was pretty clear that Chychrun has had a big impact on the team. Maybe he’s not the cleanest defender in the league, but he’s given them a lefty shot option that they haven’t ever had on the PP with Ovi and in general he has been a major part of the reason the Caps have such a productive blue line this year. He’s got to be the priority for the front office right now, and it sounds like those discussions have been ongoing since before the new year. 

Becca: Looking at the team’s crop of impending free agents, I’d agree that Chychrun is absolutely the biggest priority (although Greg’s not wrong about Dowd being something of a priority as well, given how well he’s performed in his role over the years). I’ll throw Lindgren into the mix, simply because I like the idea of the Caps having their goaltending situation settled – hopefully – for at least the next few years. It’s been a while since they’ve had stability back there, both in terms of keeping the tandem intact and that tandem’s ability to actually stop pucks more often than not. If they can get him to stay for a reasonable, non-Thompson-esque number, make it happen.

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