60+ games into the season, what has been the biggest positive for the Caps?
Rob: Jacob Chychrun has looked even better than he did last year when he signed his $9M extension. It’s always fair to wonder how players will hold up after signing a big deal, and you also knew some of the shooting percentages would regress from the career highs so many guys had in 2024-25. Well, Chychrun hasn’t regressed at all, already surpassing his goals and points totals from last year; and he looks more comfortable defensively this season. Any fears people had that the Caps were buying high on an unproven player should be allayed by now. The big question about Chychrun in 2025-26 is “why wasn’t he in the Olympics?”, not “why would the Caps sign him to that big deal?”
Andrew: Alex Ovechkin continuing to score goals is always a positive.
Luke: Justin Sourdif ending up being a very good NHLer is a huge positive. When the Caps traded for him for a 2nd, it was a head scratcher. Everyone, including me, were questioning that trade. Now Sourdif has proven to be a jack-of-all-trades player with speed, skill and grit that can play every forward position up and down the lineup. Players like that are very important to have. He was definitely worth the cost.
Kalilu: He hasn’t lit the statsheet on fire, but Ryan Leonard’s shown a lot of encouraging flashes throughout his rookie season. Despite being moved up and down the lineup, he’s 5th on the team in points/60, with his best moments being some of the most exciting we’ve seen from a Caps youngster in quite some time. There’s growing confidence that he’ll be a mainstay on Washington’s top-6 through the next decade, which is exactly what you would’ve wanted to come away from this season saying back in August.
J.P.: Last year was kind of “lightning in a bottle” magic, and while there has definitely been some regression (I’m looking at you, Connor!), the underlying play across the board has been pretty solid for a team that has played nearly the whole season without arguably its best (or most valuable) player, Pierre-Luc Dubois. Guys like Chychrun (as Rob mentioned), Tom Wilson, Logan Thompson, even Aliaksai Protas have all shown that last year wasn’t a fluke. Ryan Leonard (as Lu mentioned) and Rasmus Sandin, for me, have taken a bit of a leap forward. Ditto Sourdif, obviously (as per Luke above). Even Ethen Frank is showing himself to be a fine depth player. So while the bounces may not have gone their way this year, the foundation looks pretty solid, and that’s encouraging.
Becca: Agree with JP (and almost everyone, really) that the progression/emergence of the youngsters is a huge positive – not just for this season but the foreseeable future. I also think that has supported the biggest positive I’ve seen, which is that a team missing it’s 1C for most of the season to this point was able to stay right in the mix of the playoff race. That’s not nothing for a team that doesn’t have a ton of high-end talent to begin with.
What is the one thing you’d like the Caps to improve on in this final stretch?
Rob: My kingdom for a functioning power play.
Andrew: Charlie Lindgren. He has an .881 save percentage on the year and an ugly .784 high danger save percentage.
Luke: Rob pointed out the PP and I’ll point out the PK. It doesn’t look terrible being ranked 17th in the league with 79.3%, but the Caps had the 4th best last season with 82% last season. There’s no excuse why it isn’t in the top five again. Same players, same goalie (though different coach). If the Caps had that same PK as they did last season they are probably in a Wild Card spot right now. And if the PP was average they are top three in the Metro. If the Caps miss the playoffs, the special teams will be the reason why.
Kalilu: It’d be nice to see what this roster looks like fully healthy at some point. It’s been a game of whack-a-mole recently, with Pierre-Luc Dubois’ return to the lineup being accompanied by Tom Wilson and John Carlson’s exit from it. This was never going to be a juggernaut of a roster, but their on-ice issues will be tough to fix in any capacity when so many of the pieces they’ve built around have been unavailable at different points of the year.
J.P.: Special teams and Chuckie have been rightly identified above, so I’ll take the big swing and say “high-end talent.” This team as presently constructed has a handful of very good players, but not sure how many great ones or game-changers (the case could easily be made that Wilson, Thompson and Chychrun have been great, but I think it’s fair to ask if they’re “great” players). The Caps have made no secret of their desire to acquire some young, high-end talent, and they have a few blue-chip prospects on the cusp of making their respective NHL debuts, so it will be interesting to see what, if any, talent they infuse into the lineup down the stretch.
Becca: I’m not creative. Special teams are a disaster, they’re routinely costing the team points, and something needs to be fixed.
What, if anything, should the Capitals do before Friday’s trade deadline?
Rob: Stay realistic, patient. They don’t look like they are only a piece away from the big dogs this season. Even if another top end player becomes available like Rantanen last year, it’s hard to see how one guy takes them from the playoff bubble to the final four. They’ve got a pretty well stocked pool of prospects so I think it makes sense to let their pro scouting department do their thing because not all of these guys can crack the lineup; but everyone they call is going to ask for Leonard/Hutson/Protas and it’s hard for me to see a deal that makes sense to give up those guys when you’re sober about the championship window for this team.
Andrew: Agree with stay patient. There’s excitement with their up and comers and with continuing development of the younger players. But that means they won’t be true contenders yet.
Luke: This is an interesting question. I think there are a couple of paths they can take. If they can add a young, skilled top six winger (Kyrou) then they should do that, whether they think they will make the playoffs or not, as long as that player is under contract for a while. Another route is they could sell off their free agents (Duhaime, TvR, Milano, Lapierre) to make sure they at least get some assets back then call up the kids to fill those spots. It probably won’t affect their chances at the playoffs if they go this route so maybe it’s something they explore nonetheless. Or maybe they do both of those things. I also wouldn’t be against exploring trading McMichael, Sandin, Dowd, and Lindgren. Not saying I’m forcing the issue but if the offers are good I would do it. I love all of those players but they are all replaceable and would bring back good to great assets.
Kalilu: With Artemi Panarin off the market and the Blues setting a high price for Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, the skillset Washington needs the most probably isn’t going to be available this week. I’d be in support of something similar to the 2023 deadline, which saw them accumulate assets that allowed for later swings at Chychrun, Rasmus Sandin and Logan Thompson. Their best bet would be to prioritize moves that expand their draft capital, allowing them to be aggressive in the offseason where there’ll be more chances to add the dynamic scoring forward they need.
J.P.: Related to my last answer, if The Guy (young, high-end talent with term on his contract) is available, go get him. Or at least explore going and getting him. Otherwise, I’d maybe lean soft buy. People often treat this like it’s a video game, and it’s not – start selling and you’re telling the team you don’t believe in them, and before long losing breeds losers (you don’t have to look far around the League to see it). Keep your powder largely dry but add a depth winger or maybe a defenseman to show the locker room that you’re not giving up and they shouldn’t either – that usually has more value than the 4th-round pick you’re sending the other way.
Becca: I think staying patient is the way to go. There are no rentals that would be the silver bullet to make this fringe playoff team a true contender, there’s not much in terms of prospects/young guys I think they should give up, and the goal should be to focus on improving in the future beyond this season. If they can find that high-end talent (or even just good players) with some term that make sense to bring in at this point, go for it; if there’s a smaller deal to be had that gives the Caps assets to continue retooling for next year and beyond, make it. Otherwise, stand pat and see what happens.
Quick take: Are the Caps making the playoffs this season?
Rob: They need to stay hot basically the whole way down the stretch but I think this team is better than the one that pulled off a similar feat in 2023-24. There are some teams ahead of them that haven’t played playoff hockey in a while so I think it’s likely that 1-2 of the teams they are chasing will falter, whether or be due to pressure or the ramped up intensity of March-April hockey. I say they make it but I have modest expectations from there.
Andrew: I think they get in. They were missing Pierre Luc Dubois from game 12 to 59 or so. Throughout the season the team was never that far out of a playoff spot, often clogged up with other teams that were all within a few points of each other. While the Capitals did have players playing at the Olympics much of the team had time off to rest and heal. I think they make the push to catch a wild card spot.
Luke: If every East Coast could stop going to OT every freaking game, then I like the Caps’ chances to come roaring back after PLD returned, but the hill is getting steeper to climb every night. If the Caps can stay fully healthy and at least slightly improve their special teams, I think they can sneak into the playoffs. Hard to see them going far with their special teams but you never know.
Kalilu: I’m leaning towards a “no.” The hole they’ve dug themselves in is far from insurmountable, but there’s so much traffic in the East wildcard race that it’d take a consistent run of strong play for them to be able to lock themselves into a playoff spot. Could they do it? Absolutely. Have they shown they can do it? Not really. Dubois’ return has given the team a much needed jolt that will keep them in the conversation, but it’s looking more likely they get lost in the shuffle and narrowly miss out on the dance.
J.P.: Well, the math doesn’t look great, not gonna lie. But know what else doesn’t look great? The rosters of the Bruins, Penguins and Islanders. There’s not much room for error (i.e. starting Lindgren) at this point, but we’re still at a point, despite the games in hand that other teams have, where the Caps largely control their own destiny. If they take care of their business at a high-but-realistic clip (a huge “if,” of course), they get in. Whatever the outcome, I think you’ll be able to say that they probably deserved what they got.
Becca: I’m going to go against my natural instincts to always be positive and say…no. I don’t think it’s in the cards. I do agree that this team, especially with PLD, is probably better than the teams around them in the playoff race but I think they’ve let it slip away from them a little bit too much, with less runway to make up the distance than any of those other teams. It’s a steep hill to climb, and in the end I think it’s going to be too steep.