41 games in the books, 41 games left to go in the 2024-25 regular season for the Washington Capitals…so where do they stand? What’s the plan going forward? The Rink crew tackles a few questions about the team at the halfway point of the season.
Q1: Who has been your first-half MVP for the Capitals?
JP: What strikes me about the first half is that it really has been a full team effort, with dudes up and down the lineup stepping up when they’ve needed it. Sometimes it’s been the goalies (though less frequently than I might have thought), sometimes it’s been a bottom-sixer picking up the goalies after a misplay. Obviously Ocho’s been huge when he’s been there, Chychrun’s made a huge and immediate impact, Protas has made The Leap™ and so on, and I probably shouldn’t overthink the three-time Hart winner posting yet another historic goal-scoring season.
The fact that they not only stayed afloat in Ovechkin’s absence, but actually ascended the standings after a couple of gentlemanly losses to start off the stretch (you don’t want to go out and show up your captain by winning without him right away) makes me lean towards a guy who hasn’t missed a game yet this year (despite having his face blown up) and led the team in goals (seven) and game-winners (two) during Ovi’s absence, and that’s Tom Wilson. The future captain has been terrific all year, but don’t take my word for it:
He’s been the heart and soul of a club bursting at the seams with those attributes who has excelled in all situations and is my first-half Caps MVP.
RP: Can’t argue with Big Willy, but I’m going with an under-the-radar pick: Pierre-Luc Dubois. [Ed. Note: That pick was made before The Dubois Game last night…so maybe less under-the-radar now!] He came to the team with an 8-year contract that almost got bought out after year 1 and baggage from two prior stops—that baggage specifically included some hints, if not outright allegations, that he wasn’t committed to battling and the defensive side of the game.
Yet, to this point in the season, he’s been the best two-way center this team has seen since Backstrom was truly healthy. He’s had terrible puck luck but however his line has been configured, it has consistently won their matchups. You can’t give everyone easy minutes and there’s only so much you can ask from your fourth line. Having a center that can win battles all over the ice is critical to being an actual contender, and PLD has been doing that all season, without the gaudy boxcar stats that draw attention and fanfare. Chychrun has put up immediate numbers and reshaped the defense, but the entire forward corps is more competitive because of what PLD does to the line structures and how well he’s played so far.
Greg: He might not get as much love given the Caps split goaltending starts…but Logan Thompson has been incredibly important. He’s currently rocking a 2.39 GAA and a .916 Save %, both of which are comfortably in the top 10 in the NHL amongst goalies who have started more than 10 games. He’s also saving 14.1 Goals Above Expected according to Moneypuck, which is 4th in the entire NHL (Charlie Lindgren, on the other hand, is in the negative territory there). Also worth noting here…Thompson is currently doing this despite making a near-league minimum salary. That’s a tremendous surplus value to the Caps, allowing them to invest that extra money in other places.
Andrew: I’ll say Connor McMichael. It’s great to see a player develop and come into his own. With his 31 points, he’s already near his point total for last season in half the amount of games. I don’t know if he can keep up the scoring pace, but it should be a fun watch.
Becca: I was going to go with PLD but Rob beat me to it, the big lug. So I’ll snag a different center, and that’s Dylan Strome. Strome is another one of those castoffs from another team who has excelled with the Caps. I don’t think any of us expected him to be able to replace what Nicklas Backstrom or even Evgeny Kuznetsov (at his best) brought to the team – and he’s stepped right into that 1C role with ease. Not only has he assisted on 14 of Ovechkin’s 19 goals this year, but he’s also producing a significant chunk of offense all on his own, posting six goals and 14 points in Ovechkin’s absence and continuing to lead the team in scoring overall with 45 points.
Q2: Should the Capitals continue to alternate goaltenders every other game?
JP: Yes, I wouldn’t want either of them monopolizing the opportunities to make soul-crushing puck-handling gaffes, so keep it going. Seriously, though, I don’t have a problem with it for now. Neither of them has made the case that they should (or shouldn’t) be the only guy getting reps, so keep ‘em fresh. But I think that you’re going to want to settle on one of them before April, so later in the spring I’d probably look to giving the hot hand a little more run (but wouldn’t want either to sit too long). And maybe (hopefully) it becomes a chicken-or-the-egg of more minutes and better play for one of them. On a sidenote, with both goalies currently set to hit free agency next summer, when you don’t have a #1 goalie, you don’t have to pay #1 goalie dollars, so there is that as the Caps reportedly have interest in retaining both of their southpaw keepers.
RP: Rotate them until one of them forces you not to. Neither has become a hot hand, nor a cold hand. If someone goes on a .980 run (or .880…) then revisit that rotation, but at this point keeping them both fresh and sharp is in the team’s best interest. They need someone to get hot in April if they want to make a run, and neither guy is the obvious choice—let their play decide it.
Greg: Funny enough given my answer to the previous question, but I’d keep rotating the two. Although Thompson has been the better goalie, the reduced workload has benefited him tremendously (and it’s not like he was performing at an All-Star level before this year). Further, although the effects of rest might have been overstated regarding goaltending, goalies still perform better with more rest. So, I keep this until one of them gives Carbery a reason to change it.
Andrew: Play Charlie … Ok that may be based on the fact that I have Lindgren as a goalie on my fantasy team. I’m fine with the alternating goaltending. Like others have said, keep it going until one of them forces you to keep them in net. But perhaps put Logan Thompson in the shoot out? Via NHL records Lindgren is 4-8 in the shootout with a .652 save percentage. Thompson is 4-6 with a .767 save percentage. Neither has a great record but Thompson has the better save percentage with almost identical number of shots faced. 46 for Lindgren and 43 for Thompson. Poor Charlie has the only two shootouts for Capitals this season, both losses. And he was 1-4 in the shootout last season. I know putting in a goalie is not equivalent to putting in a pitcher in baseball. I can’t imagine you want a goalie going in cold for a shootout. Sounds like a recipe for injury or outright poor performance. So just avoid the shootout eh Caps?
Q3: What is one area you’d like to see the Caps improve on in the second half?
JP: Locking down leads. It may be recency bias and it hasn’t necessarily bitten them too badly (yet), but the Caps’ play when leading hasn’t always looked like that of a true contender. To wit, on the season they have the League’s 18th-best adjusted 5v5 Corsi-For percentage when leading and 21st-best (aka -worst) expected Goals-For percentage in those situations (for reference, the top three teams in the League there are Carolina, Jersey and Winnipeg). This team has shown that it can win high-scoring games and has won some low-scoring tilts as well, but one of the hallmarks of an elite team is being able to close out any game when leading. And while the Caps have largely been able to do that so far this year, there are signs that that damn may not hold.
RP: HCSC seems like he’s broken most of the old bad habits that have plagued the team in the Ovi era… but they still have an ugly tendency to play to their competition. Maybe that plays into how they play with leads—generally not at their best when they seemingly have the advantage—but all these points matter and you don’t want to lament a bad matchup in the first round because you’ve been dropping points to the Sharks, Blackhawks, Red Wings, Penguins, and Rangers (i.e., the dregs) of the league.
Greg: I haven’t loved the last few weeks, as it seems that the Caps have made a mess of their d-zone exits and are out-of-sync in the neutral zone. Clearly, Carbery isn’t happy with this either, as his recent shuffling of the lines would indicate. To me, when things are out of sorts…I’d like to see the team simplify their approach and crash the net more to make the opposing goalies life uncomfortable. During too many games, the Caps have been comfortable being on the perimeter and not getting to the high-value ice in the slot. You can do as many cross-seam passes as you want, but if no-one is in valuable areas, it’s not all that helpful.
Q4: You’re GM Chris Patrick; what’s your top priority at the trade deadline?
JP: Convincing the world that we’re a better front office than the Cleveland fucking Browns, among others. But they’re in a pretty good spot. I’d maybe look to add a depth defenseman or wing (though that’s probably not a thing if Ryan Leonard is expected to be here once his season ends), but you’ve gotta be careful with the chemistry in the room. And as (perhaps) unexpectedly successful as the first half has been, there still needs to be an eye on the longer term plan. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t “go for it” – you should almost always go for it – but rather be realistic about the form the team is in, the rest of the Conference, and such. Then again, if they continue doing what they’ve done so far, is there a team in the East (or the League for that matter) that you’d say the Caps definitely cannot beat in four out of seven games? I don’t think so. So…go all in.
RP: Third line center. Love Lars, fully support the reunion tour, but he ain’t it in 2025. HCSC implicitly acknowledged the struggles at 3C by moving McMike to that third line despite how well he’s been playing on the second line with Wilson and PLD. He looked decent, two points against the Rangers, but I think the team is better with him on the second line and Protas on the top line. To make that work, they need a reliable 3C.
The third line wings haven’t been great but if they add a 3C, pending the return package, they’ve got Leonard coming in and a competition between Vrana, Lapierre, Eller, Mangiapane, Miro, and whoever else might emerge. That should be enough to put a solid line around a credible center.
Greg: I’m going to come in hot here…but I think the Caps should absolutely be buyers at the deadline and try to acquire an elite talent (if available). This is a team that is wildly outperforming expectations, but they’ve seen their scoring dry up, and that might be something you can address at the deadline. Additionally, with McMichael slowing down a tad, I don’t see a ton of Caps who are dynamic enough to create their own scoring chances. I’m not exactly sure who the Caps would get in this range (Elias Pettersson seems like a major reach), but I’d be open to exploring options to bring in a real difference-maker.