As noted the other day, the key question the Caps and Spencer Carbery face is how to contain Montreal’s top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovski. The reason is simple: the trio has been one of the most dynamic lines in hockey, and generates the vast majority of the Canadiens scoring chances and goals:
In games 1 and 2, the unenviable task of slowing this line down has befallen the Caps primary shutdown line of Pierre Luc-Dubois, Connor McMichael, and Tom Wilson.
The results in game 1 were mixed:
Pierre-Luc Dubois (Spencer Carbery’s first choice to match Suzuki) was outshot (attempts) 15-7, and his linemates were bludgeoned 25-7 (Tom Wilson) and 21-6 (Connor McMichael) thanks to a brutal shift alongside Nic Dowd (outshot 9-2 by Suzuki, so not exactly a great alternative). Maybe Lars Eller’s trio gets a chance, but Dubois’ line is still probably the best option (Dubois, it should be noted, had the slightest of advantages over Suzuki in expected goals-for percentage at 50.6).
The Narrative
However, last night went significantly better for Dubois & Co against the Canadiens top trio. They broke even on shot attempts (14-14) while generating more expected goals (0.73-0.5) and, well, actual goals:
That said, Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis will ride his top trio the whole series. So far, Suzuki has skated more than 45 minutes, with Slafkovsky and Caufield not far behind:
Interestingly, Dubois has skated over 12 minutes less than Suzuki, despite Carbery almost exclusively line-matching Dubois and Suzuki:
What accounts for the disparity? Largely, it’s special teams. Despite being featured on the PP1 for the last few months, Dubois was placed on the PP2 right before the playoffs:
As a result, PLD only has 1:16 of power play time and no time on the penalty kill.
To contrast, Suzuki not only has more power play time than any Canadiens player (6:16), he also has been on the penalty kill for 1:01. As a result, Suzuki ranks 5th in total ice time per game amongst forwards in the playoffs:
Dubois? He’s 74th.
Perhaps Suzuki won’t wear down significantly, he’s 25 and has some experience with a long playoff run. However, given the Caps physicality and the Canadiens playing playoff-like hockey for months, Carbery can’t complain about his top shutdown line saving some wear & tear and (perhaps) getting more effective as the series continues. In fact, he might be planning for it.