Breaking into the NHL is hard. No matter a player’s pedigree from first pick overall to undrafted free agent, he’s never played in as fast, as physical, as skilled or as demanding a league before he gets to “The Show.” Bumps in the road are expected along the development path for all but the generational talents (and even for them as well, at times), and progress itself is rarely a straight line.
No, this isn’t a “so temper your expectations on Cole Hutson just a little bit” post (but definitely do that too).
Rather it’s a check-in on another kid on the roster, Ryan Leonard, who now has a year under his belt as a full-time NHLer. So how is Leonard’s first full season in the League going? Let’s dive in.
On the surface, the boxcar numbers look very solid – 14 goals and 21 points in 62 games, punctuated by a recent five-game point streak (4G, 1A) that came on the heels of a 14-game stretch with only a single assist to show for it on the scoresheet (know that consistency is just about the last thing to come along for young players, so there’s nothing particularly worrisome or abnormal about that). Those overall numbers place Leonard fifth in the League in scoring among rookies, and his 11 power play points (3G, 8A) are fourth, despite <waves hands wildly> this power play. He’s firing the puck (6th in SOG) and is getting good ice time, clocking in at 14:25 per night (11th among rooks, and just behind teammate Justin Sourdif). He’s also drawn a ton of penalties (but taken more than a handful as well).
But look below the surface and things aren’t quite as rosy. For example, the Caps are worse (in terms of expected goal percentage) with Leonard on the ice at five-on-five than with any other skater:
The only Caps that have been on the ice for less generated offense (by expected rate) than Leonard are the departed Nic Dowd and defensive-zone-start regular Brandon Duhaime, and stay-at-home (or, preferably, in the press box) defenseman Dylan McIlrath; the only Caps that have been on the ice for more generated offense against are… well, there’s no one below him there. Put another way, here’s what the Caps look like at five on five with and without Leonard on the ice:
To summarize, the Caps offense at fives is 13% below League-average with Leonard on the ice and 2% above average with him off; their defense is 12% below average (i.e. giving up more) with him on the ice and 6% above average with him off. That’s… stark. And, sure, it lacks some context, so let’s fill some of that in:
Nothing particularly interesting there – he’s mostly a middle-six forward facing middle-sixers, and without any clear offensive/defensive usage. Pull it all together and it looks like this:
Or this:
Or this:
You get the points – some good offensive results, but some frankly ugly stuff under the hood, particularly defensively. Does that match your eye test? Maybe, maybe not.
So panic, right? Of course not. Again, this is one hell of a tough league for anyone, much less someone that just turned 21 and is grinding through his first 82-game season. But to focus solely on the point titles and the highlights risks missing part of the whole picture, which paints a picture of holes in his game that will need to be addressed. The good news is, you can teach a young dog new tricks, and Ryan Leonard has all of the skills needed to develop into a complete, elite NHLer. There just may be some bumps along the way, and that’s to be expected.