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A Balanced Attack

Oct 23, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) celebrates with teammates after scoring an empty net goal against the Philadelphia Flyers in the third period goal at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Washington Capitals are off to a red-hot start, having rattled off five wins in a row after their opening-night loss to New Jersey and looking relatively good (although not without areas for improvement) in the process.

They’re also scoring goals at a pretty decent clip. Through six games, they have 26 goals for a 4.33 G/GP rate – third-best in the league right now, behind only the Rangers (4.57) and the still-undefeated Jets (4.43). This is particularly impressive considering how abysmal the power play has been so far, clicking at just 9.5% (and 4.8% net, factoring in the one shorthanded goal they’ve given up); they currently boast the league’s second-best 5v5 GF/60 rate at 3.99.

In general, you’re not going to get that kind of offensive output without everyone chipping in – and so far, pretty much everyone is. 17 of the 20 skaters to get a jersey this season have picked up at least a point (more on the three that haven’t in a minute), and 12 of them have scored a goal.

The bulk of the scoring is coming from the team’s top-six forwards, as would be expected given their higher ice time and work on the power play (to say nothing of the “easier” matchups, if there is such a thing in the NHL). The top line of Aliaksei Protas-Dylan Strome-Alex Ovechkin has combined for six goals and 18 points; the second trio of Connor McMichael, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson, a hefty nine goals and 19 points.

The rest of the forwards are chipping in, though, with seven goals and 12 points between the “bottom” six. Add in another four goals and 18 points from the blueline – an area in which the team struggled last year – and that’s a pretty decent distribution of offense.

(If you were curious, the “new guys” have combined for seven goals and 15 points so far, so…pretty good work there, as well.)

Here’s a look at each forward line’s underlying numbers at even strength, which give us a better picture of a) how the team is performing and b) whether it’s sustainable:

LineTOICF%FF%SF%GF%xGF%SCF%HDCF%
Protas-Strome-Ovechkin45:4955.2162.6953.3357.1468.4759.5777.78
McMichael-Dubois-Wilson56:1548.1154.9361.5466.6754.1651.0645.45
Vrana-Lapierre-Mangiapane33:3753.5762.8666.67065.6560.7163.64
Duhaime-Dowd-Raddysh60:4352.2547.9543.1466.6755.9260.4252.38
All stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Not bad, all things considered, with all lines above a 50% in xGF%. That second line is (unsurprisingly) outpacing their xGF% by a large margin, but the first and third lines are probably due to break out a little bit more, as well, which would be nice to see for the latter in particular.

Of the four lines crafted by Coach Carbery, that third line is really the only one that has struggled, combining for just three goals (one of which was a shorthanded strike by Mangiapane, so not really indicative of the line as a whole) and five points. Neither Hendrix Lapierre nor Sonny Milano, who held that spot in the first game, has registered a point – and Lapierre’s drought is more concerning, considering he’s one of the three players to be held scoreless to this point, and the only one to have appeared in all six games this season (the other two, Sonny Milano and new defenseman Matt Roy, have combined for roughly 15 minutes of ice time total this season).

Still, three out of four lines contributing ain’t bad, and the overall numbers are looking good for a much-improved offense going forward. Should we expect six goals a night for the rest of the season? Probably not, and as with all teams, this one will likely hit an offensive cold spell at some point this year. For now, though, they’re flying high – and making it fun to watch Capitals games again.

Talking Points