The season in review for a head coach is tough to quantify – so as has become the tradition, we break down the 2024-25 campaign for bench boss Spencer Carbery in roundtable style. Feel free to weigh in on his sophomore season in the comments!
Q1: With one season and a brief playoff run under his belt, what were your expectations for Carbery coming into his sophomore season – and did he fall short, meet, or exceed them?
J.P.: I’m not sure what my expectations were, but it’s safe to say he exceeded them – Carbery took a team that was a playoff punchline a year ago and put up more points than any team in the East. (That he didn’t sweep all the Jack Adams first place votes for doing so is somewhat baffling.) I suppose my expectations could best have been characterized as “continued progress towards a coherent vision for how this team will ultimately be successful,” and, yeah, he met and surpassed that.
But enough about my expectations – how about some others? The Athletic predicted the Caps would end up with 85 points, with less than a 1-in-5 shot at the playoffs, a 1% chance at winning the Division and a 95% chance of finishing in the League’s bottom two-thirds. HockeyViz pegged the Caps as a 90-point team with a 16% chance of making the postseason. They wound up with 111 and home ice as long as they lasted up until the Finals.
I don’t think even the most optimistic Caps fans saw this season playing out as it did, and Spencer Carbery is a huge reason why it did.
Luke: I expected Carbery to continue his good ways from last season, but didn’t expect him to do as well as he did this season. The Caps have a good roster, but to turn them into a pretty good possession team and end up with the second most regular season points is another level. He absolutely killed it last season by creating a great locker room, communicating well, and earning his players trust and admiration. The issue is now he has to exceed even that going forward. It won’t be easy but hard to trust any other coach out there currently. And as JP pointed out above, no one expected the Caps to do as well as they did.
Rob: I expected Carbery to keep building on the culture and momentum from last year. I thought the team would look a bit more comfortable and smooth executing his system, and I thought they would be in more solid playoff position this year, fighting for third in the division or maybe being at the top of the wild card pack.
He obviously exceeded those expectations. I didn’t think there was any realistic scenario where the Caps would compete for top seed in the division and conference. Even in retrospect, knowing the Devils were injury plagued and the wheels fell entirely off the New York Rangers, it’s surprising that they handily beat out Carolina and the three-headed monster in the Atlantic. There was some good luck throughout the season, save percentages and shooting percentages above normal, but ultimately this is a team that maximized their talent more than any other Caps team in the Ovi era; and maximizing available talent is the hallmark of great coaching.
Andrew: I don’t have too much to add to the answers already posted. My expectations were that he would continue to improve. A strong season with a possible play off berth. Like Rob said maybe fighting for third in the division and a wild card spot, but not a last game of the season kind of thing.
He surpassed all of that. First place in the East, fighting for the President’s Trophy at one point. All while continuing to develop the young players and facilitate Alex Oveckhkin’s chase down of Wayne Gretzky. For me one of the most fun things about this team is the chemistry, how they all fit together and how that all starts in the locker room. The players seem to genuinely like each other and love playing with and for each other. Post Barry Trotz the team culture didn’t feel the same. I’ll be honest I don’t remember much of the Todd Reirden seasons which means to me they were a little forgettable. Peter Laviolette was less forgettable meaning more ugh… At that point the team was far from the Trotz meeting a newly signed player at the airport to pick them up and welcome them to the team. Or the fun of Trotz hot lap. The locker room starts with the coach and Spencer Carbery has helped create a fantastic locker room. Pierre Luc Dubois said “It’s the most fun I’ve had playing hockey.” He also seems like a genuinely good dude to bump into outside of the rink.
Kalilu: Given the roster’s strength (or lack, thereof), the 2023-24 season was more about establishing the Washington Capitals’ identity under Spencer Carbery than it was about what results that led to. This year’s team was unquestionably more talented than last year’s, and I expected that to translate into being a playoff team with on-ice results more resemblant of one. I did not expect them to have their most successful regular season since the Trotz days. I don’t think anybody did. Last year made it clear that Carbery was excellent at getting a roster that eventually tuned out their previous coach to buy in, and given the talent upgrades, that set a higher floor for Washington than they had last year. The ceiling turned out to be much higher than most expected, and the culture Carbery was able to establish played just as big a role as the roster additions did.
Q2: What do you think was the biggest obstacle facing Carbery this season, and how well did he manage it?
J.P.: Going into the season, Carbery had to prove that sneaking into the playoffs last year with an ugly goal differential wasn’t a fluke and that this team was actually good. Mission accomplished. But as the season wore on and that first question was well on its way to being satisfactorily answered, he was confronted with the two-pronged challenge of getting his captain across the greatest goal-scoring finish line the sport could provide while also keeping a team that wasn’t really being threatened in the standings as sharp as they’d need to be to make a playoff run. Alex Ovechkin got his record, and the team definitely stumbled down the stretch, but they were largely ready to go when the playoffs started, so I’d say he managed it about as well as it could have been managed.
Luke: Basically ditto to what JP said. Trying to balance his team with wins but also making sure Ovechkin could reach his record was probably his biggest obstacle. It’s hard to complain with the results.The Caps definitely had a couple rough spot towards the end but showed up ready for the playoffs. You can’t ask for much more from your coach.
Rob: I will go with lack of elite talent on this one. Jack Han called it out on the podcast and I think it ultimately did catch up with the team in the playoffs, the Caps high end talent doesn’t match up with the teams that were true Cup contenders. Ovi is a legend and had an incredible regular season, but he’s 39 and not a guy that’s going to compete for a Hart Trophy anymore. Maximizing talent across the lineup is great, but when push comes to shove you need studs to make a play; the Caps don’t really have that, and it showed in the playoffs. There are some really good players on the roster, and several had career years, but the Caps were a 1 seed that was unable to ice the best five-man unit in either series.
The Suzuki line was a nightmare to face, stealing one game and almost one or two more—not exactly a great sign against an 8 seed. As underwhelming as Carolina’s top players were (Are? Have always been?) in the playoffs, they still had the best line in the series and no weak lines, and thus controlled the matchups. The front office did an amazing job adding talent last off-season, but Carbery and the Caps are still lacking some elite, in their prime, game breaking talent.
Andrew: Continuing to develop the young players and the team. Last season Carbery showed that under his coaching the team was in good hands. He needed to not only continue on that but show that the team was taking steps forward. The team didn’t have to take monumental leaps but enough to show that like JP said, last year wasn’t a fluke. Carbery delivered and then some. The team saw a breakout season from Connor McMichael and a career year from Tom Wilson. All while letting Ovechkin chase down the goal scoring record. I think that right there is a great showing of how Carbery was able to manage young talent and the veteran core.
Kalilu: This season was always going to hinge on how much the acquisitions of guys such as Jakob Chychrun and Pierre-Luc Dubois would improve the Capitals’ roster. Those moves were no-brainers in hindsight, but there’s a reason they were available to Washington for as little as they had to give up. 365 days ago, PLD’s contract was becoming one of the most maligned in the league after a rocky stint with Los Angeles, and Chychrun had similarly fallen out of favor in Ottawa. With the Caps continuing to thread the needle between developing the future and competing in the present, integrating those two into prominent roles within that context was a tall order, and was in my mind the most impressive aspect of Carbery’s season.
Q3: What was Carbery’s biggest strength and biggest weakness this season?
J.P.: It’s hard to pinpoint a single biggest strength in a season as wildly successful as this one, but I was constantly impressed with Carbery’s demeanor and overall “vibe management.” His post-win locker room talks were pure, genuine, heart-felt enthusiasm and every interaction he had with the team and media seemed to foster an environment of positivity and honesty without shirking accountability.
As for a weakness, I’d have liked to have seen him rotate the roster a bit more, especially as the Division title became more and more of a certainty. For example, the Caps essentially used six defensemen all year:
Had they worked in Alex Alexeyev a bit more during the regular season, maybe they’d have realized sooner that he wasn’t a guy you necessarily want in your lineup in the second round of the playoffs when one of your regulars gets hurt, and added that type of player at the deadline. Similarly, maybe Connor McMichael could’ve had some reps at third-line center once it was clear what Lars Eller had left in the tank, to see if that position needed to be addressed externally. And it might not have hurt a guy like John Carlson to have played a little less during the regular season so he might’ve been able to give a little more during the playoffs. But those are nitpicks; obvious weaknesses were hard to find.
Luke: I think Carbery’s biggest strength this season, which was the same as last season, is just getting the best out of his players. Playing them to his strengths. Like Anthony Mantha, he turned a player people gave up on, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and turned him to a very productive player. He led Connor McMichael and Aleksei Protas to their most productive seasons yet. Same with Strome. The best coaches get the best out of their players.
As for his weakness, there wasn’t much, but maybe his love for Taylor Raddysh. Every coach seems to have that depth guy they love and will play them every chance they get. This is not a hit job on Taylor, he’s a good NHL player, but he was thrown into the top nine way too often when other more skilled players should have received those minutes. You could also argue he turned to McMichael to play 3C too late in the series against Carolina. Eller was obviously not the answer for a team that needed depth scoring.
Rob: Carbery is an excellent communicator, and that must be one of the keys to getting the most out of every player. You can hear it in his interviews, but we don’t see what happens behind the scenes. What we do see is guys hitting career numbers and distressed assets playing their best hockey under Carbery—that’s not an accident. The vibes and the execution all speak to a coach that knows how to push the right buttons and knows how to get his players to play the system he wants them to play. It’s one thing to know your X’s and O’s and design a system but another to get players to execute the system (long look in Adam Oates’ direction).
For a weakness, rather than restating J.P.’s point I’ll say that the power play was disappointing. They had a team with a very successful scoring by committee approach at even strength and multiple career years, but couldn’t put together a dangerous power play. The Chase surely contributed to the challenge, but over-passing to Ovi doesn’t explain awful zone entries with the extra man or some of the other execution issues that held the unit back. The power play has lacked any creative adjustments essentially since Oates put the 1-3-1 in place, but the personnel isn’t the same anymore and the league has had over a decade to figure it out. They need to develop new ways to challenge a PK, change up the look more regularly, and use other shooting threats. And, as much as it pains me to say, Ovi cannot be taking 2 minute shifts on the PK anymore. Carbery finally got away from that after it burned them a couple times in the playoffs, and Ovi now has the record, so it will be interesting to see what carries forward to next year on that front.
Andrew: I’ll steal from Luke and Rob’s answers, getting the best out of the players and communication. One does not happen with the other.
As far as weakness goes, I like Rob’s answer about the powerplay as well, give Ovechkin a break on the powerplay. Have him start and play 45 seconds to a minute but moving around looking for open space to use his shot. Or be a screen in front. I’m not a fan of Ovechkin screening the goalie at 5v5 but let him park in front of the net if he wants on the power play for set play or two. What I’d like to see is more movement. Less Ovi office and less bumper, you can always go back to those.
Kalilu: As I said above, Carbery’s biggest strength was getting everyone on the roster to buy into their roles and become something greater than the sum of their parts. This was evident last year, where even through rougher periods you’d have guys like Evgeny Kuznetsov speak out in support of him. The upgrade in talent on this year’s team accentuated his ability to connect with the locker room, and that culture was key in getting the best of a roster that welcomed a lot of new faces over the summer.
You’d really have to stretch to come up with a weakness other than what’s already been mentioned here.
Q4: Grade Carbery’s overall performance in his second season as the Caps’ head coach.
J.P.: This is an easier “A” than my “Intro to Geology” class in college. The process is clearly there – the next step is getting the results to follow when it matters most.
Luke: It’s hard not to give him an A. The players and fans love him. He delivered the second best record in the NHL while having multiple players produce the best they ever had. The locker room was vibing and the results are hard to argue with. Most people had the Caps barely missing the playoffs or barely getting in. He showed up a lot of people.
Rob: You win the conference and you probably deserve an A just as a matter of course, but doing it with a team that wasn’t expected to make the playoffs at all makes it a no-brainer.
Andrew: Easy A for sure.
Kalilu: He won the Jack Adams for a reason. A.